Thursday April 18, 2019
Tom Winnifrith Postcard - an ode to my ancestral homelands in the Grim North
Photo Article from the Greek Hovel - good news and bad
Photo Article - walking around Stourhead with the Mrs and Joshua, the end of the Booker family memory lane

PERSONAL, UNDILUTED VIEWS FROM TOM WINNIFRITH

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Data shows the US Economy is very weak indeed but rates will rise - Peter Schiff

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- Tom Winnifrith

Peter Schiff is a libertarian a gold bug and a hero of mine. So I listen to what he says. His latest podcast - not surprisingly - has a similar world view to mine. The Fed is now indicating it needs evidence that  the Q1 weak economic data is transitory and not a trend.  This is interesting for 2 reasons.  The Fed’s narrative has always been to tout economic growth even in the face of flimsy or no supporting data.  Now the Fed is actually admitting there is weakness.  The other interesting thing is that, although the Fed continues to claim it is “data dependent”, it has been ignoring the economic data ever since the first rate hike.  The market puts chances of a June rate hike at almost 100%.  Maybe that is because it believes the Fed will raise rates regardless of proof.

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