On 15th May I asked whether Quindell at 20p (300p in today’s money was a buy sell or hold? I concluded that the odds were that 20p (old money) was probably the right price but the truth was I did not know. It was not a share one had to own. In light of a series of new facts, I have changed my mind and my target price is now sub 20p ( new, post-consolidation, money).
My conclusion in the first piece you can read HERE was:
So if you hold the shares do you carry on holding? Well again if you say that you have a 80% chance of making 10% and perhaps a 10% chance of making 100% + but also an outside chance of making MINUS 95%. Is that really the best home for your money? On a risk reward basis there have to be better homes. This is not a stock one has to own. As a cautious soul I think I’d rather sit on the side-lines and watch events unfold until there is more clarity one way or t’other.
So what has changed?
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