1152 days ago
I trained as an oil analyst 27 years ago and have been writing about the sector ever since. Those morons who thought they knew better, as they filled their boots with Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite (XEL), Magnolia (MAGP), Andalas (ADL) and UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) always thought they had greater sector experise and on twitter came up with devestating responses to my hard analysis. Meet utter fucktard Donato Perretta, a UK Oil & Gas owning moron.
1790 days ago
Yes, I am indeed resident at a motorway service station as I explain HERE. In today's podcast I look at ethics, Milestone (MSG), Strat Aero (AERO), SalvaRx (SALV), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Blur (BLUR) - as a long I kid you not - and Audioboom (BOOM), er..less so.
1790 days ago
Say what you like about the army of lunatic small shareholders that have stuck with Gulf Keystone (GKP) through thick and think but they are loyal. Rather like a wife who keep getting beaten up by her drunken husband they just stayed on for more. It was almost touching. And now with the debt for equity complete Gulf is to kick those folks in the bollocks with a share consolidation.
1828 days ago
It is red faces for Sir Richard Branson and for uber pious Richard Reed of Innocent as app firm Sup goes bust but the whole story is just so hilarious, a message on the stupidity of man and his inability to learn from his errors you will wet yourselves. The nature of the demise of this company is the highlight of my week and it will be yours too. Elsewhere I look at Telit Communications (TCM), Ambrian (AMBR), Aureus Energy (AUE) - I await your apologetic update Jo Hart - XCite (XEL) and Gulf Keystone (GKP).
1830 days ago
The reason for that is revealed at the end of the podcast. Before that I look at Gable (GAH), Entu (ENTU), Gulf Keystone and a stock ramped by Justin the Clown, Global Energy Development (GED). Does an endorsement from the Clown mean that the shares might not be cheap?
1831 days ago
The City's top oil analyst, Zac "the Knife" Phillips of SP Angel has today issued a stark warning on the risks in holding shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP). As it happens I think Zac is being rather too nice on this occassion, he misses a trick. First to Zac, with the shares now trading at 2.23p, but, he warns, worth as little as 0.65p. "The Knife" writes:
1849 days ago
Thanks to Steve Moore and Gary Newman we own shares in Xtract Resources (XTR). Both deserve P45s for that. I discuss this disaster as well as another hole in the ground in Bongo Bongo land which stinks - Armadale Capital (ACP). Then it is onto Newmark Security (NMT) - Graham Neary hang your head in shame for this exercise in nepotistic value destruction - before I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and the administration waiting to happen that is Avanti Communications (AVN)
1868 days ago
In a while I must go asremble a cot. It won't be like a cot of old but is bound to have 85 parts, six types of screw, an Allan Key and instructions designed for a Nobel Prize winner. It is like a heroic task from Greek mythology and I expect to be in a bad mood soon. So for that reason and one other I record early. On the agenda: Cloudtag (CTAG), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Pantheon Resources (PANR), 88 Energy (88E), Vipera (VIP), XCite Energy (XEL) and Strat Aero (AERO) and only en passant the fraudsters at African Potash (AFPO). This podcast is long and detailed.
1869 days ago
I refer to my 8 Reasons Donald Trump will win podcast in this bearcast - you can listen to that HERE. Elsewhere I discuss the problem of a corrupted press with reference to today's Sunday Telegraph on Gulf Keystone (GKP). I then examine why I think the stockmarket might crash this fall. Finally I offer up a quote from Ayn Rand and challenge you to disagree with how, in 1957, she describes the sad world of 2016.
1871 days ago
Still no lawyers letter from African Potash (AFPO) has arrived at Sheriff Towers. It really is like waiting for Godot. But at least my mother in law has remembered that it is my wedding anniversary tomorrow. I discuss another thing happening tomorrow, that is to say African Potash which has no cash having to repay $1.1 million to its FD's Mrs, Katrina Clayton. I look at Highland Natural Resources (HNR), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Glenwick (GWIK), Opera (OPRA) and then Gable (GAH) which really has posted a most enormous red flag today. Sell - target 0p.
1901 days ago
When I go to hell it will be to spend eternity in an ante-natal class such as the two hour ordeal I endured today. I am unbelievably angry at having wasted two hours of my life on this cobblers. Moving on I look at ECR Minerals (ECR), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Avanti Communications (AVN) Eden Research (FRAUD) in the wake of the demise of its sister company Environmental Recycling (see HERE), Braveheart Investments (BRH) - run by an old Sefton man, African Potash (AFPO) and its partner in slime Blenheim Natural Resources (BNR)
1901 days ago
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) could be toast by Friday but I think that incredibly unlikely. That they will crash is a racing cert after today's news. Gulf tells us that the owners of 82% of each of the two classes of bonds have both agreed to support the debt for equity swap. It needed just 75% support so that is in the bag. Next up..the Bulletin Board Morons.
1901 days ago
I have a stack of dessert gooseberries. I know they should be in a fruit salad but I can't buy into that so want to put them into a crumble but with what? I seek answers from any gourmands or gourmets who are listening. Then I look at Alba (ALBA) in detail, its placing ahoy! I move through Northbridge Industrial (NBI), Gable (GAH) and the mystery of the dog that barked in the night, Gulf Keystone (GKP), Keller (KLR) and FastForward Innovations (FFWD).
1906 days ago
I start with Gulf Keystone (GKP) and a share price driven by morons. talking of morons, London's most useless Nomad, Roland "fatty" Cornish has screwed up again. This time it is Nyota Minerals (NYO) although the real issue here is when is Nyota bust. I think it might be already. I look at Avanti and ask who is smarter: Tom Dobell of M&G, a Bulletin Board Moron or an institutional investor in bonds. I look at Koovs (KOOV), Essentra (ESNT) and Audiooboom (BOOM).
1906 days ago
Gulf Keystone (GKP) says that it is considering a hostile bid from Norway's DNO which comprises $120 million of cash and $180 million of shares. Given that DNO will be taking on a net $100 million of debt, post the restructuring the offer is remarkably generous but not half as generous as the market implies.
1908 days ago
I am challenged to comment on Cenkos (CNKS) as an investment in light of todays news on its role in the Quindell fraud (HERE). Okay, I do my best. Then it is on to Techfinancials (TECH), Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) and some friendly advice for Malcolm Stacey, Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite Energy (XEL) and then I end with Avanti Communications (AVN) where I hope you understand the historical analogy.
1915 days ago
I had to buy a copy of the Guardian for Dad today and carry it home through the streets from the newsagent. How I am shamed in front of my neighbours. Meanwhile dad is reading books I own by Peter Hitchens, Niall Ferguson and Melanie Phillips and is loving them, as his inner reactionary is exposed. On the markets I look at Servision (SEV), Xtract Energy (XTR) - Steve Moore and Gary Newman you are FIRED! - Gulf Keystone (GKP), Taihua (FRAUD), Oxford Pharma (OXP), Judges Scientific (JDG) and another bad day for disgraced Roger "Ramper" Lawson of ShareSoc, Kennedy Ventures (KENV) and finally the poltroons stock of choice for today, Nyota (NYO).
1916 days ago
I spent the morning at an ante natal class with the Mrs. Hell's teeth I am a feminist don't you know? But the whole experience left me feeling just rather old and I discuss why. Then it is onto today's ramptastic news from Horse Hill and I explain what it actually means. I waltz through Gulf Keystone (GKP) - bear squeeze - Stanley Gibbons (SGI) - recovery play? - and Guscio (GUSC) - Nigel Wray play. Then it is onto Tern (TERN), Gable (GAH), IGAS (IGAS) and Golden Saint (GSR) where I discuss why today's RNS really is just bollocks and how bulk sampling really works.
1917 days ago
Tomorrow my father faces his interview at the Conservative Club and I have been coaching him on what he can say as a deluded lefty to get access to the cheep beer. Elsewhere I discuss how share prices can defy gravity temporarily and why with reference to Gable Holdings (GAH) and Gulf Keystone (GKP). Then I move onto Nyota (NYO), Avanti Communications (AVN), Strat Aero (AERO) and then, in some detail, the dog run by liars that is African Potash (AFPO)
1921 days ago
It is of course Bastille Day and that, of course, prompts a few jokes at the expense of the Froggies. I then move into Gulf Keystone (GKP) and a spot of moron baiting and working out moron investing game theory. I then move to a detailed look at Digital Globe (DGS) before covering en passant XCite (XEL), LGO Energy (LGO), Trinity (TRIN), Circle Oil (COP), Premier Oil (PMO), IGAS (IGAS) and Nostra Terra (NTOG). I also comment on Glenwick (GWIK), 88 Energy (88E), Strat Aero (AERO) and Inspirit Energy (INSP)
1921 days ago
Its apology time. To all those morons who have berated me for being a Gulf Keystone (GKP) bear from 180p down it is time to apologise. Today, Paul Curtis and the GKP barmy army have suffered the final kick in the gonads with news of a massive debt for equity swap which sees near total equity wipeout. Its ouzo O'clock for the Sheriff of AIM who awaits the apologies.
1922 days ago
I have spent the morning getting twitter grief for this article but the one polite twitter enquiry concerns BoxHill (BOX) and I answer that in this podcast as well as explaining why shares are both up and down since Brexit - it all depends how you look at it. I also cover Gulf Keystone (GKP), Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV), Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) and Avanti Communications (AVN), I meant to talk about Bovis (BVS) but forgot. I shall try to remember tomorrow when I am down to make a gooseberry crumble. I shall report back on that over the weekend.
1932 days ago
It looks as if shareholders will very soon hear the final grim news at Gulf Keystone (GKP). I first said sell at 180p and have been given grief all the way down. Folks can line up to apologise to me in an orderly queue. I discuss who is to blame and what happens next. Then it is onto the reason Brexit is not the real issue, there is an elephant in the room and its European but its on the other side of the channel. That takes me to the UK deficit, Cheryl and the cheerleaders and my stance on equities.
1945 days ago
I am back in from the fields where I have been labouring in 40 degree plus heat. Today I offer a few thoughts on Circassia (CIR) and the risks folks just dont seem to appreciate of a) biotech and b) backing stock selections of star fund managers, in this case Neil Woodford - who incidentally is clearly a very talented chap. I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite Energy (XEL), China Frauds and then in some detail at Blur (BLUR). For further info on its brain dead dickhead of a PR man Dominic Barretto go HERE
1947 days ago
Well fingers crossed anyway - I cannot claim to be hiding my views! The Mrs flies back to the UK today so normal full work service resumes tonight. Pro tem I have comments on Vast Resources (VAST), Highlands Natural Resources (HNR), PHSC (PHSC), XCite Energy (XEL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Totally (TLY) and Skil Ports & Logistics (SPL).
1947 days ago
Why are shares in TrakM8 (TRAK) plunging. This is not a "Winni-wobble." The company needs to make a statement either officially or via its spokesman on earth, Paul Scott. Elsewhere, after a visit to Mistras which was amazing, I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP), death merely postponed, Avanti Communications (AVN ) - ditto - Edenville Energy (EDL) ditto and Cyan (CYAN) where I explain who is shafting Joe Retail: brokers and management.
1948 days ago
There is massive speculation about Gulf Keystone (GKP) on the Bulletin Boards and I see that the shares are ahead at 4.2p today. But there are only two facts and I remind you of both as the clock is ticking, it is 11.59 Pm and at midnight shares in this company are likely to go pop.
1959 days ago
There may not be a bearcast tomorrow. It is all down to the arrival of the Mrs as I explain. Meanwhile I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and XCite (XEL). The best time to kick a man is when he is down. So says Evil Knievil. And that applies to these two oilers where events are moving fast and the shares are near enough certs to be toast already. CIC Gold (CICG) is in an even worse state and today's RNS is a shambles. The curse of boy scout mugger Stuart Bromley strikes again. It is doomed. Then I discuss what, if anything, is wrong at TrakM8 (TRAK). Then a question raised by the share price move on Friday at ADVFN (AFN).
1972 days ago
I start by putting one scouser straight on how things work in the real world. Then it is onto DDD Group, China Norfolk Aquatic Foods (AFG), Glenwick (GWIK), Sovereign Mines of Africa (SMA), Wishbone (WSBN), R4E (R4E) - go Dr Hon! - and Gulf Keystone (GKP).
1975 days ago
We polled you on Friday asking which oil mid cap did you think would follow Circle Oil (COP) in admitting that there would be little or no value left for shareholders. Which is the next oil company to admit that it is toast. And your verdict was clear. I would say that it is probably a tight race between the gold and silver medalists in this poll. You voted:
1976 days ago
And so today, Circle Oil (COP) has admitted what anyone with half a brain cell could have figured, that it is officially toast. The question is which of the drowning in debt oil mid caps or large E&Ps will be next to fess up? There is an RNS from Gulf Keystone (GKP) today saying its bondhoders have given it another 11 days but could it be overtaken by XCite (XEL), whose shares are sliding as the clock ticks? Other oilcos in breach of loans include Trinity Exploration (TRIN) and LGO Energy (LGO) while the yield on IGAS debt suggests it is in the merde. So who will be next to admit it's toast, to use either the word "administration" or the phrase "little or no value for shareholders". Voting deadline is midnight tonight.
1982 days ago
Yup I am still clean and 99.9% of the time very glad to be. But I know that if I have just one fag it will be all over. So I will not. I digress. Today's podcast covers my little internet difficulties here in Kambos then goes onto Aureus Mining (AUE), Circle Oil (COP), IGAS (IGAS), LGO Energy (LGO) and Gulf Keystone (GKP). Finally I urge regular listener Marcus Stuttard, head of the oxymorons at AIM Regulation, to read the utterly shocking Phil Edmonds and Andrew Groves tale HERE as it shows what a shite job the bogus Sheriff is doing.
1994 days ago
Without explicitly using the words "we are 100% fucked and shareholders face either total or near wipeout" drowning in debt Gulf Keystone (GKP) has today pretty much fessed up to what a mess it is in. Not for the first time, the company is telling shareholders that the game is up. Natch they think they know better. They obviously don't remember the last days of Afren.
2008 days ago
I woke up last night panicking that after staggering home from a boozy lunch with Lucian I had written a drunken piece laughing at all sorts of folks after Phorm admitted it was bust but that I had just written it becuase I felt like it not because it was true. Imagine my relief to discover that it was in fact true and with hindsight I think I write jolly well when drunk. Perhaps we should have a writing contest myself & Paul Scott both drunk vs two boring sober bastards. I digress. I look at BP and executive pay and unable to resist poking some fun at the ghastly Nicola Horlick and dreadful Channel 4 News. I look at 21st Century Technology ( C21), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Strat Aero (AERO), Grand Group (GIPO)) and 88 Energy (88E) where Lucian is short. In a sort of flashback I recall our discussion yesterday on 88 and recount it.
2008 days ago
I am beginning to think that my 1p target price for Gulf Keystone (GKP) is in fact far too generous. Having called this as a sell at 180p and all the way down to abuse from every moron in the land I think it is time to revise the target price. The shares are off another 9% today to just 4.675p. Okay I shall stop being a nice guy, I am cutting my target price from 1p to 0p.
I had thought shareholders might be left with a little something post a debt for equity swap. But I am struck by this piece on Zero Hedge:
2008 days ago
Lucian will be here soon so I thought Id better record ahead of our trip to the Conservative Club with its tempting cheap beer. On the agenda I fail to mention that Finncap are complete and utter bastards but they are. I do, however, cover Ruspetro (RPO), Gulf Keystone (GKP), SeaEnergy (SEA), Rose Petroleum (ROSE), Sierra Rutile (SRX), Burberry (BRBY), Mothercare (MTC), a couple of Paul Scott jokes - please do not tell me he has any friends in the Mothercare management community that he thinks I may be offending - as well as a word or two on Challenger Acquisitions (CHAL)
2013 days ago
The Morons who have ignored my advice to sell Gulf Keystone (GKP) all the way down from 180p to 6.6p today have occassionally argued that I cannot be right because fund managers are long and strong and they know more than a pizza delivery boy/alcoholic etc etc etc. Today M&G has sold its 5% stake and now owns no shares at all.
2025 days ago
I name a few folks who fell for Nigel's April Fool today. How could you think so badly of me? Then it is onto: Ascent Resources (AST), Nighthawk (HAWK), Digital Barriers (DGB), Jiasen (JSI), Stratmin Global (STGR), Gulf Keystone (GKP), AFC Energy (AFC)< Vast Resources (VAST) and Nakama Group (NAK). I am rude about folks with MBA's today so if you have one brace yourself.
2035 days ago
I seem to have annoyed a lot of folks with an early article on the attacks in Belgium HERE but I am unrepentant and go on to point out a few other things most folks dare not say. From that mess created in the Middle East to another - Gulf Keystone (GKP) and why its RNS today is so bad and tells you 1p is the best case scenario. Then onto what was 3 Legs Resources but what is now SalvaRx (SALV) and why I find what has gone on just not acceptable. I also comment on stock manipulation, Sirius Petroleum (SRSP) and Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) which I cover in more depth HERE
2037 days ago
To the Bubble boys 5 nil, To the bubble boys 5 nil, To the bubble boys 5 nil. That great Bubble Sir Stelios has Fastjet (FJET) and its fascist bully boy PR scumbag operatives at Citigate Dewe Rogerson realing. Naturally I start with this. The heroic Sir Stelios makes me even more of an admirer of all things Greek. Well almost. I look at Hellenic Carriers (HCL) and also at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Northern Petroleum (NOP).
2037 days ago
I start with two matters from yesterday's Budget which I neglected to mention in my otherwise excellent post Budget podcast HERE. The I move not to Sirius Minerals (SXX), which I shall cover in a seperate article elsewhere following a chat with Chris Frazer which left me quite impressed, but to Sirius Petroleum (SRSP) which is a dog with fleas and whose placing today stinks. Then it is onto Wandisco (WAND), Gulf Keystone (GKP) - where are my fucking apologies from the morons? - Audioboom (BOOM), Challenger Acquisitions (CHAL) and the uber perma dog Sareum (SAR) before I engage in a lengthy discussion on Fitbug (FITB) another perma dog.
2037 days ago
As a bear of Gulf Keystone (GKP) since 180p, I note that the shares are now just 11p after the publication of results which are at every level just a disaster - even today this is a storming sell. Where to start?
2049 days ago
Gulf Keystone (GKP) has announced that the $15 million gross it announced it was getting on 19 February has arrived which is good news. The bad news, and boy it really is bad news, is that cash post payment is just $56 million.
2067 days ago
On the surface it seems like good news once again - as has been the case since September 2015 - the KRG has agreed to hand over $15 million ( $12 million net) to Gulf Keystone (GKP) in fact today's RNS is a disaster.
2069 days ago
A candid interview with Gulf Keystone (GKP) CEO Jon Ferrier in that must read publication Upstream (HERE) makes clear that this company is very likely to see a shareholder wipeout within a year. The shares are now 14.5p my target price is , near as damn it, 0p but here are the key takeways from Upstream.
2085 days ago
I feel let down by someone, legged over. But revenge is a dish best served cold. Last year I "dealt with" someone in print who'd cost me money 15 years previously. It was all the better for waiting. I am sure there will be a couple of listeners who will take this on board today. Was I wrong about Gulf Keystone (GKP) yesterday HERE? No the analysis still stands, today's share price spike is a selling opportunity. I also look at Kenmare (KMR), Lakehouse (LAKE), Litebulb (LBB), MX Oil (MXO - statement needed - Crossrider (CROS), Afriag (TOAST), Blenheim (BNR) and Solgold (SOLG) which gets a detailed review and sell advice.
2085 days ago
My earlier podcast on oil was I thought very balanced but one shareholder in Gulf Keystone (GKP) disagrees as you can see in the comments section beneath that excellent Bearcast HERE. My fried you are in denial just like Comrade wildes on LGO Energy (TOAST) and those who still believe in Avanti Communications (AVN). I refer to all three stocks but Gulf in particular as I examine the various facets of this common investor trait of denial.
2086 days ago
The weekend press is full of stories of doom and gloom and dividend cuts for BP (BP.) and Shell and clearly there are a stack of smaller companies that are totally screwed and where shareholders are likely to face total wipeout. In that vein I discuss Magnolia (MAGP), Igas (IGAS), Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite (XEL) and, of course, LGO Energy (TOAST). But is there a case for buying oil shares as a long term invester. I look at a few cases from BP down to Union Jack Oil (UJO). Perhaps there is no rush but the time will come.
2093 days ago
I am sorry for the delayed podcast but I am only just back from time in the Grim Northern welfare safari with the mother in law and thus can now let myself go with a volley of bad language. I end with an explanation of who benefitted from the £150 million + Himex fraud at Quindell (QPP) laid bare earlier HERE and how it also affects Watchstone (WTG). Before that I talk of my annoyance on the silly blogger spats and the explain the difference between a cash shell and an investment company and why I regard our work on exposing the latter as invaluable. In the middle segment I have more bad news for oil companies such as XCite (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Petroceltic (PCI) & Gulf Keystone (GKP) and for the sector as a whole but also for the markets. Dont blame China, we bears are still in the driving seat.
2106 days ago
I think that Koovs (KOOV) is a basket case anyway but the manner in which it disclosed information - or lack of it - this morning is disgusting and treats private investors with contempt. The Gulf Keystone (GKP ) RNS is a shocker & I have cut my target price to well below 10p. Some folks just don't seem to accept how the oil price has changed everything and I discuss why certain stocks are now well and truly toast notably Northern Petroleum (NOP), IGAS (IGAS) and LGO Energy (TOAST). I am delighted to see that Cynical Bear's articles yesterday have had some impact and comment on Corero (CNS) in detail. And then Afriag (AFRI). Its my birthday tomorrow and I have a present for Yusuf Kajee to celebrate. Incoming!
2111 days ago
I could not sleep last night so spent several hours looking at filings by Alibaba (US:BABA), the world's largest IPO. They seem red flag strewn and I would have this one down as a slam dunk sell for 2016. There will be more on this to follow but I am just putting a marker in the sand. Back in the UK I look at Gulf Keystone (GKP), African Potash (AFPO) and LGO Energy (LGO)
2132 days ago
This was one of the sparkiest sessions at Gold & Bears and I loved it. Each of myself, the bard of the Boleyn (Lucian Miers), the Dark Destroyer (Matt Earl) and Baby Bear (Graham Neary) selelected two stocks we thought were going to zero and explained why. They were: Fastjet (FJET), AO World (AO), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Slater & Gordon (SGH), Avanti Communications (AVN), Plus500 (PLUS), Tungsten (TUNG) and - bugger me - I can't remember Matt's other pick. Watch the video to find out, its a stormer.
2143 days ago
In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.
2146 days ago
It is short podcast time as I am having issued sending material back to the UK. The Albanians did not turn up today so the olive harvest is delayed by 24 hours. It may be delayed again if I have to head to Athens on Global Shorting Conspiracy business. Things are starting to get interesting as I mention briefly and this is NOT Globo (GBO). Elsewhere I cover Edenville (EDL), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Sweet Group (CSG), Atlantic Coal (ATC), Iofina (IOF) and African Potash (AFPO). Warning: this podcast contains bad language and rather too many references to Britain's most talented chanteuse Ms Cheryl Cole.
2146 days ago
The annual ritual is complete. The Mrs and I have photographed my morbidly obese three legged cat Oakley in his Christmas hat and even Tara played her part posing in the hat and in a stocking. And thus our rather un-Christian cards are now in production. Awway from that I have a long look at Slater & Gordon (SGH) where the management has just allowed the bears a chance to sell even more shares. Jabba The Hutt stocks Solo (SOLO) and LGO Energy (LGO) get a mention as does Aureus Mining (AUE) with its hugely discounted placing. Alba (ALBA) is clearly lining up its next confetti issue and I comment on that as well as Blur (BLUR), Outsourcery (OUT), Wandisco (WAND), Plant Health Care (PHC), Gulf Keystone (GKP) and NAHL (NAH), Finally I commend the CEO of ValiRx (VAL) who attended Gold & Bears on Saturday and was incredibly poilite. Memo to TW. I will be less beastly to her in 2016.
2154 days ago
Malcolm Graham Wood is paid large sums of money by oil companies to write reports on their shares which - for obvious reasons - don't tend to be bearish. He does not declare if a company whose shares he is tipping has paid him to do so or not. As such his research should ALL be ignored. Commentators must be transparent in why they are writing. If they are not they are discredited and should be drummed out of town. As such I ignore this pompous lard-bucket.
2155 days ago
Greetings from Brooklyn. The podcast starts with a look at dying Groupon and LivingSocial, dying unicorns. What does this tell us about buying shares in cash burning companies – think most stocks on AIM. Then it is onto Armstrong Ventures (AVP), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Iofina (IOF), Alecto (ALO) and Cloudbuy (CBUY). Sorry this is a short issue with no swearing at all, but a busy day beckons.
2160 days ago
In today's podcast I start with my thoughts on the NHS. Guardian readers may wish to fast forward past that.Then it is onto assisting a twitter dickead (not David Lenigas) on Reach4Entertainment (R4E) and Nigel Wray. Then it is onto CDialogues (CDOG), blinkx (BLNX) and Havelock Europa (HVE). Finally a few more words on Gulf Keystone (GKP), Alba (ALBA) and Horse Hill.
2161 days ago
Ben has produced yet another truly awful piece on Gulf Keystone GKP) today, Flip Flop is a stale long and wrong bull, I have called it spot on as a sell from 180p down to today’s 25.75p. But his offering today “facts about Gulf Keystone’s debt” is not based on fact and makes assertions that are ludicrous.
2161 days ago
I am beginning to think that I am surrounded by lunatics. I fear a dawn raid on the ShareProphets editorial team by the men in white coats at any stage. Old Malcolm Stacey believes in the money tree, Zak Mir believes in charting, Ben Turney believes in Gulf Keystone (GKP) but worst of the lot, Gary Newman, has today tipped shares in Alba Minerals (ALBA) at 0.23p to buy. Saints preserve me.
2166 days ago
A few minutes ago flip flop Ben Turney - who has called this stock disastrously wrong - once again put the bull case for shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) at 27p. I've been a bear from 180p all the way down. I remain a bear. My initial target is sub 10p but this could be a zero. I explain all in another mini podcast.
2185 days ago
In today's podcast I cheer on Paul Scott in his twitter battle with Roger Lawson (see HERE). Then it is onto Globo (GBO) and where we are now. Then I look at the companies announcing at no-one is watching O'Clock yesterday: IGAS (IGAS), EKF Diagnostics (EKF), ADVFN (AFN) and Gulf Keystone (GKP)
2218 days ago
Sadly for us bears most of the slam dunk mid-cap AIM shorts have already gone our way. We have had great sport with Monitise, Tungsten, Quindell, Range Resources, LGO Energy, Cupid, Globo (still more to come there), Gulf Keystone, etc. We won. The Bulletin Board Morons lost. Only Avanti Communications is still left to topple. It will. But now I think we have a new quarry to stalk: Boohoo.com (BOO) looks a slam dunk short at 33p.
2247 days ago
The Bear shares portfolio I outlined for summer on 19 July HERE is doing pretty well i.e tanking. Yesterday I outlined my reasons for continuing to remain bearish at a macro level HERE and I also refer to an excellent piece on Zero Hedge HERE. Then I return to the bear portfolio which is:
Avanti Communications, blinkx, Mosman Oil & Gas. LGO Energy, Jiasen, China Chaintek, JQW, Camkids, Rosslyn Data Technologies, blur, Outsourcery and Gulf Keystone.
2290 days ago
Once again IT issues in Greece delay this podcast. I start by explianing why the reaction of Paul Scott and the craven deadwood press to the new national living wage proposed by George Osborne displays 100% economic illiteracy. It is simply a transfer of wealth from business to the State, the poor will gain nothing. Then onto defending David Lenigas and Andrew Bell from some of the sillier comments made by some folk and to explain why flip flop Ben Turney is again wrong on New World Oil & Gas. hats off to Paul Curtis for the silliest remark of the day as I stck the boot into Gulf Keystone and then also to the prep, pump and dump at Beowulf Mining. And finally I have another go at biotech dog ValiRx.
And fear not Champagne Charlie Gibson fans, I had not forgotten about you. Just a reminder of why the Edison analyst is a convicted felon HERE and as a bonus a reminder of how it is not only the poor he screws HERE - and a reminder of why I feel the urge to remind you all HERE
2380 days ago
It seems that my comments in yesterday's bearcast on Gulf Keystone have sent cheerleader for the Gulf loons Paul Curtis into a bit of a frenzy. And so while he takes a bit of medication to calm down I have another go. Then, via Igas, it is on to Horse Hill where today's press coverage is shockingly bad and I have another detailed review of what on earth is going on.
2380 days ago
Apologies for overlooking the truly dreadful smoke and mirrors 2014 results from Gulf Keystone (GKP) last week. In this podcast I look back and flag up a few points the bulls might have overlooked while out on day release from the asylum.
2387 days ago
I received shedloads of abuse when I first suggested selling Gulf Keystone (GKP) several moons ago at 186p – the shares are now 36p but where are the apologies? The sell case has changed but is in fact stronger now – my initial target is 10p.
2392 days ago
It has just been announced that Mr Rob Terry now owns 7.4% of Daniel Stewart. Is it THE Rob Terry, fraudster, insider dealer and crook? I explain why that Rob Terry owes Daniel Stewart a favour plus there is a follow up on Gulf Keystone.
The shares are now 1.8p valuing this POS ( Daniel Stewart) at c£13 million. It has unrestriced ( ie non reg cap net cash) of c£600,000 and is, at best, making a tiny profit. This is a stonking short.
2392 days ago
In today's podcast recorded with my cats Tara and the morbidly obese three legged Oakley listening carefully I look at Daniel Stewart (more to come on that), Coms, Hunter Resources, Gulf Keystone and free speech on ShareProphets, Premaitha, Aquatic Foods, Nanoco and - in detail - Northern Petroleum
2403 days ago
I save the best, Quindell, to the end of the podcast but ahead of that cover Gulfsands Petroleum, Igas, Gulf Keystone, Northern Petroleum, Mosman Oil & Gas, Afren, Digital Globe ( read Steve's piece HERE), Daniel Stewart, Gate Ventures before ending with Quenron and PWC.
If you enjoy this sort of thing you will love UK Investor Show. With fewer than 200 of 2,000 seats left for April 18th book your place now HERE
2408 days ago
Just a quick mention of the 57 year old punk who made my week - the full article is HERE. In the main podcast I look at oil stocks and ask is it time to buy? The answer is no - Gulf Keystone and Afren could both still fall by another 75%. I look at them, Igas and Mosman. Then onto why small City brokers are ALL failing and what needs to change.
2410 days ago
I start the podcast today with a little joke for Gareth at Sirius Minerals before dealing with Afren, Gulf Keystone, Mosman, Kea, Touchstone Gold, Cloudbuy, Powerhouse Energy and Gate Ventures. Steve Berry, you crony capitalist, I have a little song for you.
2411 days ago
My podcast today was delayed by a lot of sleep. But I hope that it is worth the wait. I discuss the next Nomad to face scandal, have some very serious questions for Daniel Stewart PLC and look at Gate Ventures, Mosman, Soco and Gulf Keystone in detail.
2411 days ago
By the time this goes live I shall be in the High Court. I comment briefy, sing a song for a regular listener and then move onto ADVFN PLC with some observatuons, on the nature of Bulletin Boards and onto Gulf Keystone
2425 days ago
On today's podcast I try to maintain a sexy voice as I discuss Tungsten, Paul Scott, Coms, Gulf Keystone, Digital Barrier and lifting a bag of fertiliser as well as the reappearance of TomWinnifrith.com
2425 days ago
Sorry for late filing, a combination of Greek telecoms and several calls on the dynamite story referred to in the podcast. Today I cover Coms, Quindell, Gulf Keystone, AO World, Ithaca, Driver and the dog Sareum.
Please book your seats now for the UK Investor show now 77% sold out HERE
2428 days ago
Recorded outside the Kourounis Taverna in Kambos for reasons I explain this podcast starts with Mariana Resources as I try - and fail - to be charitable. I move into Quindell, Tower Resources, Mar City, Gulf Keystone, APR Energy and Afren.
2439 days ago
I urge you all to listen to the earlier Quindell special podcast HERE as that slam dunk shows why the firm is bust and worth 0p. In this audio I also cover Afren, TXO, Gulf Keystone, Bacanora, David Lenigas, Circle Oil and Northcote Energy
To support our continuing campaign against fraud on the AIM casino (but also main market listed frauds) click HERE
2440 days ago
The good news: Worthington's lawyers letter issued today is not from Pinsent Masons and so as per my deal with God earlier I can carry on drinking, swearing and thinking about Cheryl Cole. In short: the letter has arrived and I shall see you in short bitchez! I am not a man for backing down. The bad news, my critics have anounced they will smear my 78 year old Dad as well as me. I feel a bit of white rage coming on here. At a company level I discuss Trap Oil, Gulf Keystone and Tangent Communications.
To support our continuing campaign against fraud on the AIM casino (but also main market listed frauds) click HERE
2441 days ago
I start - as I would always do when I err - with an apology and correction on Scholium as per yesterday's Bearcast. I then go onto high handed CEOs who say they do not care about Private Investors and get a big come uppance. Step forward the little shit who runs Northern Petroleum, Keith Bush. I comment on Inspirit and Ambrian and going back to oil I disagree strongly with Ben Turney (HERE), Gulf Keystone remains a stonking sell. I also touch on Igas, Afren and Hurricane. En passant I touch on the china frauds like China Chaitek and Camkids.
To support our continuing campaign against fraud on the AIM casino click HERE
2442 days ago
I am in a good mood. Why am I in a good mood? I do not know.. But I am. And thus I am well set to be beastly to everybody but I think that I have just managed a whole podcast without swearing. Let's put that down as a first but not a precedent. On this edition I discuss oil prices and Max Petroleum, Afren, Igas and Gulf Keystone. What does blood on the streets mean for this sector. I look at Scholium, Oracle Coalfields and also why I am right to be bearish and Comrade Malcolm Stacey is wrong to be bullish about equities.
To get a free copy of the book Tom wrote with Ben Turney "The 49 Golden Rules of making Money from Oil, Gas & Mining shares"sent to you today just fill in the form HERE
2445 days ago
In today's podcast I look at Afren, a general point about whether institutional ownership validates a stock, Hunter Resources, Golden Saint Resources, Tomco, Powerhouse Energy, Tate & Lyle and Gulf Keystone (please note morons, TW vindicated again)
2496 days ago
In a wide ranging and opinionated (natch) podcast Tom covers Ultrasis, the nature of investing, EKF Diagnostics, Share PLC, Audioboom, Igas, Gulf Keystone, Gulfsands Petroleum, Northern Petroleum, Central rand and natch Quindell
2565 days ago
Once again this website has exposed fraud, lies and deceit on the AIM casino – with regard to New World Oil & Gas (NEW). The statement from today vindicates everything that we have written and it has vindicated our approach. To the Bulletin Board Morons who attacked our articles as they averaged down I have no sympathy. You were warned but you insulted us. And you know who is next….
We do not produce 72 page Gotham City Research style dossiers when we go after crime on the AIM Casino. Our style is to unpick what is going on bit by bit. It might take 200 articles but we will get there. We do not waste our efforts where there is no wrongdoing whether it be grotesque stock overpromotion or outright fraud. We only go after the bad guys. Sefton, Range, Vialogy, New World, Cupid, Gulf Keystone, blinkx – we have been 100% vindicated. And you all know who is next…..
2583 days ago
It was only the other day that a Bulletin Board Moron owning shares in Naibu (NBU) referred to me as Winnifraud, accusing me of making it all up. Hey presto come Friday there were dire interims and t is clear that it is not me that is the Norfolk and the moron saw his investment slump in value by another 40%. Worse is to come as I shall reveal later today. But this follows the same pattern as we have seen with Range Resources, Sefton, Vialogy, Globo, Quindell, Iofina, blinkx, Gulf Keystone, Outsourcery etc. etc. Folks like myself and Paul Scott, the great share blogger, point out obvious reasons to sell and all we get is abuse. Paul posted this on ShareProphets yesterday re Naibu
2623 days ago
Ben Turney today suggested that US intervention in Iraq would see Isis beaten back and is thus an opportunity to buy Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Genel. He cites some curious examples to back this thesis up.
Where Ben is mistaken is in thinking that we will see prolonged US involvement. Obama does not want that. Sure the Islamofascists may be driven out of Kurdistan pro tem. But they will simply retreat to Sunni dominated area of Iraq where ISIS is popular and to Syria where the US WILL NOT pursue them. And the Kurds will not advance into hostile territory so ISIS will regroup in safety.
2626 days ago
President Obama has now ordered his warplanes to bomb some ISIS Islamofascist loons off to a place where they get to meet 72 virgins. He is now off on a 2 week golfing holiday. If you think that this will save the Kurd oil plays in London - Genel (GENL) and Gulf Keystone (GKP) here is why you are wrong.
You need to think back to the last but one totally useless disaster of a Democrat to sit in the white house, the lamentable Jimmy Carter. He and his party were haunted by one event for many years – the capture of US hostages in Tehran. Carter tried a military option to get them out and it failed. The hostages only came back home when Jimmy had been replaced by the greatest President the US has ever known, Ronald Reagan.
It is not hostages that Obama fears. For ISIS makes the mad mullahs of Iran seem like cappuccino sipping, Guardian reading liberal pussies. What Obama dreads
2626 days ago
On a financial level I have always been bearish on Gulf Keystone (GKP) long arguing that the shares were really only worth 30-50p – something that has not endeared me to the Bulletin Board Morons. Well I guess I was right. But what has changed to make this an outright slam dunk short sell? Answer: ISIS.
Incidentally HERE is my first red flag piece on Gulf from April 2013 with me saying sell at 154p and I have consistently argued that fundamental value was 30-50p. I would now target the bottom of that range or less.
Without doubt these Islamofascists are truly the most repellent force on this planet. Opponents or those who are not the right sort of muslim are beheaded, crucified or shot. Even children are beheaded. Although I see that in the Guardian that the ISIS flag is now also flying in Poplar East London alongside the Palestinian flag, it is in Syria and Iraq where the headway is being made.
Peering at my maps today
2667 days ago
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) have soared in recent days partly on hopes that Todd Kozel would be given the boot at the AGM on 17th July but also on speculation that the company could receive a takeover approach. We understand from a reliable source that there will be no bid.
2681 days ago
You could not make it up. Some folks cannot but help pick overpriced glamour stocks which crash. Meet Mike Bowen who tweets as @lookatbowen and who first spring to my attention as he tweeted @tomwinnifrith the only person certifiable is you Tom – Oooh er missus. I guess he owns Quindell (QPP) then.
For the avoidance of doubt I am prepared to accept that there is a case to be made that I am certifiable. Warning folks about overvalued stocks does not make you popular. Buying shares in Quindell just to go to the AGM and ask hard questions might be construed as foolhardy. But whatever. I prefer the description “eccentric.” But as it happens on a portfolio of all the stocks the Bulletin Board Morons love (blinkx, Globo, Iofina, Cupid, Gulf Keystone, Coms, Range Resources, Sefton and of course Quindell) I was RIGHT to be bearish.
Now meet “sane” Mike Bowen.
2681 days ago
The two stocks most beloved by Bulletin Board Morons are Quindell (QPP) and Gulf Keystone (GKP). I have got death threats, shit in the post, a hate campaign against my restaurant for questioning both companies. I am not gloating about the losses suffered by “innocent shareholders.” But the losses suffered by those who have tormented me trying to gag free speech and legitimate questioning cause me no sorrow. Quindell shares have plunged today as it failed to move from the AIM Cesspit to the main market (see HERE) but Gulf is also down by 12.5% at 79.3p: blame leverage and Al Qaeda.
To leverage first. The last time I looked 98% of IG clients were long of Gulf and its clients were overwhelmingly long of Quindell too. The slump in the Quindell share price will be causing margin calls across investor-land and that will trigger forced sales elsewhere. Gulf and Quindell are the mainstays of most Bulletin Board Moron portfolios.
Adding to Gulf’s woes is news that Al-Qaeda had taken control of Mosul in Northern Iraq.
2694 days ago
Two weeks ago Tom Winnifrith and Lucian Miers recorded a series of four videos which first appeared on their Nifty Fifty website. This video covers Globo (GBO), blinkx (BLNX), Avanti Communications (AVN), Iofina (IOF) and Quindell (QPP).
The other two videos cover companies including Gulf Keystone (GKP), Mothercare (MTC) and Naibu (NBU) but can be accessed only on the Nifty Fifty.
2704 days ago
On Wednesday infamous bear raider Lucian Miers and Tom Winnifrith recorded a series of four videos. The first covers the markets. The second and third cover “old favourites” for the bears: Globo, blinkx, Avanti Communications, Gulf Keystone, Naibu and Iofina. The fourth covers some new Lucian shorts.
The three videos subsequent to this will appear on the Nifty Fifty website later today.
2704 days ago
I have noted before how the yield to maturity on Gulf Keystone (GKP) Bonds was a terrifying sell signal on the equity. For folks who have ignored me I have bad news: it is getting worse.
Before Gulf managed to get away its last $250 million bond issue the YTM on its existing 6.25% bonds was a terrifying 15% - well into junk bond territory. However the most recent IMS seems to have ignited fears that Gulf might just need yet another refinancing as Lucian Miers flagged up HERE.
And so the YTM
2713 days ago
Oh dear, oh dear, today’s trading statement from Gulf Keystone (GKP) is a bit of a dog’s doo doo. I fear that the bears will enjoy it and having suggested that the stock might be a trading buy on the basis that grossly overpaid CEO Todd Kozel might be about to get his P45, I now revert to my normal sell stance – so far utterly vindicated with the stock having dived today to 91p.
What are the bad points in today’s statement?
Well Todd might not be universally loved by his shareholders anymore and might even have a few “non-fans” on the board but he is clearly not going. That is, on balance, bad news.
Of rather more fundamental concern is the cash position.
2724 days ago
Report from SkyTV suggest that Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) ludicrously overpaid CEO Todd Kozel might get the order of the boot within weeks. Gulf is declining to comment but the Sky report looks multi-sources and suggests that both other board members and institutional shareholders want Todd to go and to go soon. The shares are 101.5p and unless Gulf kills this story stone dead first thing on Tuesday with an RNS I’d be a trading buyer on the open. Yes you read that correctly I used the word buy.
2740 days ago
I sense that the tide is turning in Bulletin Board land with regard to Gulf Keystone (GKP). A while back I was universally hated for saying the shares were overvalued. If those who slated me had listened and thought and sold rather than just abusing me they would be rather richer today as a result. Hey Ho. It is their loss. I still think the shares are dramatically overvalued and will see 50p this year. But I sense the mood is changing. These days Todd Kozel is even more hated than me.
There is open discussion about whether shareholders should seek to oust the board. Could they? Should they?
2747 days ago
It looks as if Gulf Keystone (GKP) has got its $250 million rescue bonds offering away – but what does that mean for the equity? Hmmmmm.
Gulf had said it would not issue equity as part of this offering. Times change. There are 40 million warrants at just 102p going as part of the deal. It had to sweeten the offering and break its word just to get this away. And the yield? 13%. FFS that is junk bond territory. It is almost in credit card range. Whatever Gulf says about market conditions, blah, de blah de blah, it has just issued junk bonds.
2749 days ago
This may surprise you but I reckon shares in Gulf Keystone should bounce – perhaps to 120-125p – in the short term. That to me would be the time to short again as this company’s equity remains grotesquely overvalued as I shall explain.
2756 days ago
Not deterred (in fact spurred on) by my death threat last night I offer up two new insights for those unlucky enough to own Gulf Keystone (GKP) shares. I do not delight in your misery just suggest that you consider cutting losses before they become even greater. As they surely will. First to the bond market.
It has been suggested that the secondary market in the existing $325 million of bonds is so illiquid that the price means nothing. Au contraire. It is the price of shares, set by buying and selling by –very often – uninformed investors which is wrong.
An interesting tweet emerged yesterday from Waz Shakoor, a man with an amazing record of buying deeply distressed bonds at the right price – he made a killing buying Greek bank debt. How many folks can say that? Waz tweets:
2756 days ago
One wonders how seriously I should take an email received last night from a Mr Tony Hartnett of Ireland ([email protected]) - one could read it as a death threat. Just in case I am found underneath a No. 8 bus this week, I reprint it in full so that the Old Bill can know where to start looking.
Good evening, Shorty
2757 days ago
This video interview between Tom Winnifrith and Lucian Miers was recorded and published first on their Nifty Fifty website. In light of developments at a number of stocks featured it merits a wider audience.
On the Agenda
1. Gulf Keystone
2. Avanti Communications
3. The Market generally
6. J Sainsbury
2757 days ago
Shares in Gulf Keystone (GKP) have slumped by 9% to just 90p today amid ongoing concerns about the company’s rescue $250 million bond offering which has to succeed if Gulf is to avoid going tits up in May.
Infamous bear raider Evil Knievil has revealed to Shareprophets today that he is now short of 200,000 shares. While declining to set a short term target price, Knievil says that the see through value of Gulf’s equity based on the 15% yield to redemption on Gulf’s existing $325 million of bonds is c30p.
2758 days ago
My weekly video postcard is longer than usual as I will probably not record another for two weeks.
I am now 100% focussed on preparing for the UK Investor Show on Saturday April 5 and I touch on what I am looking forward to next week most, notably the shareholder activism session. You can still grab one of the last 50 seats going by clicking HERE.
After that I am off to Greece and I shall be sending back a few videos from a country which, I shall argue, has suffered both from being in the Euro but also from EU membership.
In that vein the meat of this video postcard covers the three reasons why, holding my nose, I shall almost certainly vote UKIP on May 22nd.
Tom’s weekly financial postcard covers Minoan, EMED, Globo, Gulf Keystone and more on the UK Investor Show. To watch that video click HERE
2759 days ago
Bear raider Lucian Miers has a small short position taken recently in Gulf Keystone (GKP)but says that he will increase that short markedly if Gulf shares stay below 100p for two more trading days. And he has issued a stark warning about the Bond issue underway.
The stock closed Friday at 98.75p – its lowest since September 2011 and Miers has studied the charts and reckons that failure to get through what was previous support at 100p would be the precursor to a sharp fall to 70p or below.
2761 days ago
At the weekend I challenged Todd Kozel, the grotesquely overpaid CEO of Gulf Keystone (GKP) to record a video interview with me. His Bulletin Board moron fans reckon that I talk cock and so if they are right Todd would wipe the floor with me. I offered to travel anywhere in the world, except to places where Jew Hating bigots might string me up for having an Israeli stamp on my passport – places like Kurdistan, Iran and parts of Bradford. Todd’s PR man says that he won’t do it. Todd is too cowardly to answer questions such as….
The questions Todd should have been asked at the analysts meeting were not asked. Perhaps those who penned bullish notes with daft share prices oh so recently were embarrassed. Perhaps oil analysts these days are just as thick as the oil Gulf pumps out but cannot seem to monetize. Whatever the Bulletin Board Morons might say as a long term Gulf Bear ( the Morons & bigots being bulls) I have no blushes on this one. I have been right so far and remain right. I remain an “out and proud” bear.
So what would I have asked Todd. This is not an exhaustive list but would have fiilled session one of Frost vs. Nixon, Winnifrith vs. Kozel.
2762 days ago
I was starting to panic. My journey to Greece starts next Wednesday when I leave Bristol and until this morning the passport I ordered a few weeks ago had not arrived. Worse still, when I used the Passport Office auto-tracking forms it appeared that our friends in Cardiff had no record of me at all. But the panic is over, a brand new passport has arrived, with no record of my visits to Israel or the USA and so I could now go to Kurdistan to meet Gulf Keystone (GKP) if I wanted to. I don’t.
And so in a week’s time I must kiss goodbye to the cats and head to London. The Mrs joins me on the 3rd for her birthday. Naturally I shall not reveal which birthday it is. But your clues are that it is a round number, she is younger than me and although I thought she was in her late twenties when she first chatted me up by showing me an interesting article in the Guardian, she appears younger than she is.
Then it is UK Investor Show on the 5th, a hangover on the 6th (and a day with the in-laws who are coming to London for the show), supper with Matt Suttcliffe on the 7th, a hangover on the 8th and on the 9th it is off to my beloved Hellas for three and a half weeks of walking, writing and searching for the grave of Great Uncle David Cochrane. And if it is goat milking season I shall naturally be having another go at that too.
I cannot wait. Does anyone know if it is goat milking season or not?
2764 days ago
Bear Raider Evil Knievil warned last week that Albermarle & Bond (ABM) was on its death throes and that a short was free money. The company has today warned that the banks will not support its recovery plan and that it must therefore try to sell assets but this will not realise even the amount it owes. Albermarle thus concedes that its equity is worthless and its shares have been suspended. We warned you to sell last week HERE.
To those who ignored that warning
2765 days ago
In light of this week’s Bulletin Board Moron & Bigot of the week story posted earlier there can only be one picture for this week’s caption contest. If you think that you can better my entry please post it in the comments section below:
My entry is: As the Judy Garland blares in the background, the entire Shareprophets Editorial team and Evil Knievil decide that there is no point in living a lie and all come out…as bears of Gulf Keystone.”
2765 days ago
ADVFN boss Clem Chambers asks if I can avoid being rude to his customers. Sorry Clem but some of your Bulletin Board customers are total and utter morons and this week’s candidate, posting as Simone Cockswiller is also a rank bigot.
Being a moron and being a bull of Gulf Keystone might in fact be synonymous but it appears that my scepticism of the past few days (see HERE and HERE and HERE and HERE and HERE) has riled this fellow. So not content – as are others – simply posting anonymously that I am a “cunt” etc., etc. this fellow has started his own Gulf thread: Simon and Tom's Gay Sauna For Distressed Turd Burglars.
At the top this fellow explains:
2765 days ago
My weekly video postcard this week is born out of conversations with deluded lefty pals of the Mrs this weekend – why is it that the Left wants the State to take more control over our lives?
The issue is the failure of secondary education & our ludicrous, unfunded and unsustainable higher education system. One deluded lefty reckons that the answer is to bring back some form of National Service.
This says everything about the left. A problem that is fixable is to be addressed by the State spending more money and restricting more liberties and still won’t fix the problem.
I also cover two walls - one in Berlin and one in Israel and what both say about the mendacity and failings of the liberal left elite in the West.
My weekly financial postcard covers the red flags of Gulf Keystone, the failings of analysts and why they fail and I issue a direct challenge to Gulf boss Todd Kozel – is he man enough to face an interview from me? You can watch that video HERE
2766 days ago
I gather that I am not wildly popular with certain Bulletin Board Morons for my pieces yesterday on Gulf Keystone (GKP). Arguing that the shares could be worth 0p in some circumstances (HERE) or pointing out that its Bonds were now in Junk Bond territory (HERE) was always going to attract some ire. However, the tone of the comments is most instructive. We are in phase 1 of grief.
It is not as if this is the first time I have questioned the valuation of this stock. This site ran a series of articles last May by myself and others suggesting that the shares were overvalued. At that time the comment on the Boards was universally hostile. Todd Kozel (the grotesquely overpaid CEO who dumped all his stock last year) could do no wrong. I and the other critics were just crooks on the make or imbeciles or both. Gulf was THE darling of the Bulletin Boards and anyone criticising this company faced universal slating.
Like I care. It is nice to be vindicated but one receives no thanks for pointing out when a grotesquely overpromoted stock is a slam dunk sell.
But as is always the case,
2767 days ago
The share price of Gulf Keystone (GKP) is driven by private investors. The bond price is driven by more informed individuals and it is now screaming out JUNK!
Two days ago the October 2017 6.25% bonds were trading at 88p. Today they are trading at 75p. That means that implied yield to maturity is c15%.. I.e. if you buy these bonds in the secondary market you will get an annual return (assuming that Gulf can repay) of 15% per annum. That is a junk bond type return.
Now ask yourself
2767 days ago
This is not a question that the legions of Gulf Keystone (GKP) shareholders want to consider but they should now accept that this is a possibility – however remote. How they must wish they had followed grossly overpaid CEO Tod Kozel in dumping all their stock last year.
The position of Gulf is not now about fundamentals but about game theory. There are a number of parties involved – let me elaborate.
2768 days ago
The Bulletin Board Morons who a year ago worshipped the ground that Gulf Keystone’s (GKP) grotesquely overpaid CEO walked up and abused anyone who had the timerity to question the valuation of this PR creation have had another dreadful day as Gulf has admitted that it could be bust within ten weeks.
The company has today published its prospectus for a move to the Main Market. The good news is that no equity funding is planned. The bad news is that the cash is running out fast. As at 31st January it had $82 million. But Gulf admits that under certain utterly conceivable scenarios it would be $20 million in the hole by the end of May. How the hell can a company that claims to be producing 13,000 barrels a day burn its way through $100 million in just four months?
2775 days ago
Paid for researcher Edison is rarely harsh on its clients. After all it is paid to produce its research. A hooker does not tell her client he has a small dick she just gets on with it. As such a report out today on Gulf Keystone (GKP) is pretty damning.
The researcher notes:
2866 days ago
When even those paid to write research are not shouting loudly from the roves of the fan club building that your shares are cheap, you have a bit of a problem. And that brings me to Bulletin Board Moron darling Gulf Keystone (GKP) at 178p.
In a note out today paid for researcher Edison fesses up.
2909 days ago
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) is taking on yet more debt with a $50 million bond offering today. The statement made me raise my eyebrows once or twice. I would not buy the shares myself but nor would I short but if forced to choose then at today’s price I’d sell. I observe.
3007 days ago
Shareprophets can reveal that infamous bear raider Evil Knievil has acquired a near disclosable stake in AIM listed mining stock (OMI) after buying heavily at c7p. The shares are now 9.875p valuing Orosur at £7 million but Knievil (the alias of Simon Cawkwell) argues that on a break-up basis the gold producer is worth $30 million
3086 days ago
I have not dared look at the Gulf Keystone (GKP) Bulletin Board threads since myself and Zak Mir went openly bearish. The more I look at this the more I am bearish. Bear raider Lucien Miers outed himself as a bear over the weekend and he has dared look at the thread on ADVFN.
None of the points he raised is answered in any way. Instead there is a torrent of abuse for him (and also again myself, Zak and Shareprophets). Lucian thinks we should all now enter the witness protection programme. You can read all of our thoughts at www.ShareProphets.com – we are not deterred and will not be deterred from writing again.
3090 days ago
I am expecting that the next statement from Gulf Keystone will be “The company knows of no reason for the decline in its share price.” Well I can pre-empt that by stating that I can think of plenty and today’s cack-handed attempt to reassure investors is one of them. And so here goes with my six reasons why I am increasingly bearish about Gulf Keystone.
I am sure that bulls can answer some of them but not all I suspect. The Red Flags keep coming up on this one and I suspect they will keep appearing. I wrote last week Gulf Keystone and the Smell Test: Fail – I stand by my conclusions of then. But here goes with the questions.
3099 days ago
Gulf Keystone (GKP) is either the cheapest stock on AIM or is a horror waiting to blow. None of us knows which it is but on balance, after events yesterday, I would sell the shares. And for a variety of reasons.
The bull case is that the company sits on c14 billion barrels of oil. A market capitalisation of just £1 billion fails to discount that. Here endeth the bull case. If the company can start to produce that oil (and it targets output of 400,000 bopd by 2020) its shares are dirt cheap.
However, the bear case is extensive. My first contact with this company was when a then NED Lord Truscott oiled up to me to introduce himself. He was a Labour peer who took money from companies for getting legislation changed. Having a creep like him in charge of remuneration and corporate governance was like hiring Jimmy Savile as your babysitter.
3217 days ago
I spent two years working along Sam Bottell at minesite/oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece from TradingResearch Point…
Gulf Keystone (GKP) the AIM listed Kurdistan-centred oil exploration and production company has had an eventful year which has seen the share price tumble from highs of 425.2p to its current price of 167.5p. Day in day out it is the most discussed stock on the Bulletin Boards with its supporters convinced that the share fall is an opportunity. For them 2013 will be a pivotal year in Gulf’s development programme, the twelve months when their faith is rewarded. But will it be?