Personal and undiluted views
Northern Petroleum

1071 days ago

Cabot Energy postpones insolvency with up to £2.8 million fundraise at just 0.1p – Oh dear

Once upon a time shares in Cabot Energy (CAB), then Northern Petroleum, traded at almost 150p. Today it announced a bailout funding at just 0.1p. despite it raising $15.3 million at 5p just a year ago. Oh dear… and it could get worse.


1115 days ago

Another day of shame for AIM: Cabot Energy spunks $16.5m in a year, warns could go bust in weeks, did ex CEO inside deal?

Cabot Energy (CAB) which, as Northern Petroleum, once saw its shares touch 140p today admitted that unless it gets away a placing at a “deep discount” (its words) it will go bust by the end of January. Its shares, about which we have been warning for eons, have crashed by 59% to 0.625p. To think that, less, than a year ago, former CEO Keith Bush raised $16.5 million at 5p. All the money's gone.


1311 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: So just why were Bush & Morgan fired by Cabot? I think I have the answer to that $16.5m question!

I am still recovering from yesterday's 14 mile training walk for the Woodlarks 32 mile charity walk. Yesterday's trip did not go quite to plan and ended up being a tad longer than expected. I explain all HERE. If you enjoy my suffering I shall do a 20 mile walk next weekend so how about you spare a tenner and sponsor me HERE. In the podcast I ask very hard questions about the sacking of the CEO and FD at Cabot Energy (CAB), formerly Northern Petroleum. I think I know why the P45s and black bags were handed out but Cabot must come clean NOW. Same Nomad, different dog, more questions - MySquar (FRAUD). Then I look at Audioboom (BOOM) and Wishbone Gold (WSBN) where I am a long suffering shareholder. And I smile to myself as I remember watching Germany vs Argentina four years ago in Kambos HERE


1785 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: For whom the (front door) bell tolls

The bell in this podcast is not Aidan Earley's libel suit arriving but the workmen returning after lunch. I explain why they are here - blame the Mrs. In terms of stocks I cover Prairie Minerals (PDZ), IGAS (IGAS), Milestone (MSG), Xtract Resources (XTR), Amur (AMC), Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO), NCC Group (NCC), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and Saffron Energy (SRON), Redcentric (RCN), MXC Capital (MXCP) and a few other matters. Smiley face.


1902 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Im really not into that green shite but its worse than that

In today's bearcast brought to you despite having a heavy cold, such is my dedication to you my listeners, I cover: Reach4Entertainment (R4E), Wishbone Gold (WSBN), writing to the FCA, T Clarke (CTO), Northern Petroleum (NOP), Andalas (ADL), Uru Metals (URU), Bilby (BILB) and Windar Photo (WPHO)


1934 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Avanti inches to zero and Arian - once a dog always a dog - it needs shooting!

I start this podcast with a look at Avanti Communications (AVN) where I hope you ignored the ramblings of snot gobbler's colleagues at the FT and stayed short. 0p is still looking likely and I discuss the problems IIs face today. I look at Arian Silver (AGQ), a dog with fleas which has served the fat useless bastards on the board and its crony capitalist advisers well as punters have been shafted year after year. I look at Northern Petroleum (NOP) where today's dismal results tell you that it is placing ahoy AGAIN, at Petropavlovsk (POG), Galantas (GAL), Boxhill (BOX) and at Capita (CPI),  


1937 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Fraudsters, losers & tossers the lot of them

In this bearcast I refer to my article on the Trump & Clinton debate overnight and what it means HERE and the latest shocking expose of Quindell fraudster Rob Terry HERE.  I warn about bad things happening in Euro land and the worst of tem all is Deutsche Bank. There is a Radio 4 programme tonight on AIM fraud at 8 PM. I am not involved but some fine upstanding members of the community are. that is irony in case the loser Roger Lawson thinks I have forgiven him and ShareSoc for defending the blinkx law breakers by smearing me and Ben Edelman.Elsewhere I look at the role of certain NEDS who are Tim not so nice but fucking dim. I cover the Cloudtag (CTAG) scam, Northern Petroleum (NOP) - placing ahoy _ and Imaginatik (IMTK) as well as China fraud Jiasen (JSI)


1943 days ago

EXCLUSIVE: Northern Petroleum: Argentine Unit heading for bankruptcy court - when was it going to tell investors?

And there was I thinking that if AIM listed companies had bad news they had to issue an RNS? Well maybe Chris Cleverley has re-drafted the rule book because Northern Petroleum (NOP) seems in no rush to fess up to the impending collapse of its Argentine subsidiary.


2100 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 19 April - God I am productive as 88 Energy Dumps

I am still a tad under the weather but still I am jolly productive on the article front. In today's podcast I cover a valid point made by a UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) owning moron, look at Andalas (ADL) and 88 Energy (88E) - you were warned folks. Likewise Northern Petroleum (NOP) where I have no sympathy for CEO Keith Bush. He deserves a black bag and a P45 pronto. Frankly after his 2014 bonus piano wire is called for.


2131 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 18 March - Sir Stelios & TW 5, Fascist PR bullies at Citigate and Fastjet 0

To the Bubble boys 5 nil, To the bubble boys 5 nil, To the bubble boys 5 nil. That great Bubble Sir Stelios has Fastjet (FJET) and its fascist bully boy PR scumbag operatives at Citigate Dewe Rogerson realing. Naturally I start with this. The heroic Sir Stelios makes me even more of an admirer of all things Greek. Well almost. I look at Hellenic Carriers (HCL) and also at Gulf Keystone (GKP) and Northern Petroleum (NOP).


2161 days ago

Northern Petroleum - Tells us about the Alberta Bonds & when you expect to go bust?

Northern Petroleum (NOP) shares have slumped again today by 13% to 2.25p-3p. I fear it is going to get an awful lot worse with 0p a perfectly plausible target price. There are two problems.


2183 days ago

Next Job for Bush, Ritson, Carroll, Piggy Austin - oil worth less than shit chicken graphic

As the summer wears on folks like little Keith Bush at Northern Petroleum (NOP), Andy Carroll of POS Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), halpess Neil Ritson of LGO Energy (TOAST) and Andrew "Piggy" Austin will be looking for new jobs as their company's go tits up. The graphic below suggests that next time they might want to try serving up something customers want to pay for?


2189 days ago

Northern Petroleum insists it wont run out of cash - I disagree

Northern Petroleum (NOP) has today announced it has completed its Rainbow deal in Canada and hapless CEO little Keith Bush has insisted that cash is not an issue. The, heavily spun, statement skips critical details and the fact is that Northern will be out of cash a lot sooner than most folks think. This looks terminal.


2191 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 20 January - Arguing with the UK's top share blogger Paul Scott again

Warning: This podcast contains bad language and some not terribly PC remarks about the Germans. A bit of an argument this morning with Paul Scott, Britain's top share blogger, on the subject of TrakM8 (TRAK). For once he sounded like a bit of a stale bull and I go through the bull excuses when faced with analysis like THIS. I am right on this one. I also cover Environmental Recycling (ENRT) and Motive TV (MTV) both of which are flea ridden dogs with puss ouzing from every pore and should be put down at once. Then it is on to Nostra Terra (NTOG) and Independent Resources (IRG) as well as Northern Petroleum (NOP) and Armadale Capital (ACP). I did not cover Corero (CNS) but I see its shares are slipping so should ask "when is the placing" and I gave Jabba The Hutt a break today but if you need a fix there is an LGO expose HERE


2200 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 11 Jan - Koovs Disgusts me, Afriag - incoming!

I think that Koovs (KOOV) is a basket case anyway but the manner in which it disclosed information - or lack of it - this morning is disgusting and treats private investors with contempt. The Gulf Keystone (GKP ) RNS is a shocker & I have cut my target price to well below 10p. Some folks just don't seem to accept how the oil price has changed everything and I discuss why certain stocks are now well and truly toast notably Northern Petroleum (NOP), IGAS (IGAS) and LGO Energy (TOAST).  I am delighted to see that Cynical Bear's articles yesterday have had some impact and comment on Corero (CNS) in detail. And then Afriag (AFRI). Its my birthday tomorrow and I have a present for Yusuf Kajee to celebrate. Incoming!


2234 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 7 December - Very Bruised by Greece today

I refer not to InternetQ (INTQ) of which a lot more later but to an accident I suffered when picking olives this morning. I am in real pain.  I know how it feels to be a shareholder in LGO Energy (LGO) which I discuss. In today's podcast I also cover Northern Petroleum (NOP), Hardide (HDD) - in grisly detail - Hunter Resources (HUN) and take Nigel's excellent weekend piece on China New Energy (CNEL) further - this just stinks. Talking of China and Norfolk, I also note the news today from JQW (JQW). Finally I question the RNS from Forbidden Technology (FBT)


2237 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 5 December - Six oil stocks heading to zero (and there are more) post OPEC

In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.


2243 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 27 November - Christopher Booker to Jabba The Hutt

Once again sincere apologies to Jabba The Hutt groupies for failing to pick up David Lenigas on anything in yesterday's podcast. Before you all get cold turkey, I have a few observations about Octagonal (OCT) nonsense today.I start with a look at React Energy (REAC) a trainwreck involved in green energy shite. I suggest that anyone who believes in this hocus pocus nonsense should read "The Real Global Warming Disaster" by uncle Chris.  Then it is onto Anglesey Mining (ATM), Golden Saint Resources (GSR), Slater & Gordon (TOAST) and Northern Petroleum (NOP).  See you all tomorrow at Gold & Bears in London.


2251 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 20 November - We need more coverage of David Lenigas

In today's podcast I deal with reader complaints that we have not given enough coverage to the various business interests of fat Aussie share ramper Jabba The Hutt. And so I cover Lenigas Cuba (CUBA), Big Jabba's preposterous claims about liquidity on ISDX and Solo Oil (SOLO) - placing ahoy! I also look at Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN) -  more shite from poltroons from the land where most folk are descended from convicts - Flying Brands (FBDU), 88 Energy (88), Kea Petroleum (TOAST), JQW (FRAUD), Northern Petroleum (NOP), Optibiotix (OPTI) and African Potash (AFPO). I also deal with some wanker on twitter who thinks I am a sexist and wants to have a fight with me and ask more questions about market abuser Chris Oil AIM IPO car crash waiting to happen, Mkango Resources


2255 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 16 November: David Lenigas is not the only one in my sights

I am in Shipston with my father who has just won a premium bond. I discuss this ahead of spending it in the White Bear. Also how I deal with charities who call him. Then it is onto David Lenigas at the start with Lenigas Cuba (CUBA) and at the end with Rare Earth Minerals (REM). In between I look at Velox3 (VLOX), Juridica (JIL), Oilex (OEX), Phorm (PHRM), JQW (FRAUD), my anger at Reach4Entertainment (R4E), Paragon Diamonds (PRG) and I give Northern Petroleum (NOP) a well deserved kicking. Warning - this podcast contains strong language which some may find offensive. C'est la vie. 


2268 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 4 November: Inspirit Confetti for the fire tomorrow?

On today's podcast I start with a couple of risers: Berkeley Energy (BKY) - where's my apology Brokerman Dan? And Optibiotix (OPTI) - you know I am not totally useless at long tips. Then onto the losers: Galasys (GLS), TyraTech (TYR), Northern Petroleum (NOP). Then it is Golden Saint Resources (GSR) where I also try to help out hapless compliance officer the Northern Slum refugee Richard "Gollum" Gill by explaining the rules about a financial promotion.  I missed out FastJet (FJET) - down on weak passenger data, can anyone remember anyone involved in its IPO who might be a red flag? Then I turn my attention to David Lenigas, the boiler room and Inspirit (INSP).


2280 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 23 October: Daniel Stewart, Globo, Suspensions happening & hangings I call for

A wide ranging little podcast with none of the bad language ( well less) in my earlier bearcast on CEB Resources (CEB) and its scumbag CEO Dave Whitby (HERE). In this edition I cover Globo (GBO), Daniel Stewart (DAN) – with breaking news  - Northbridge Industrial (NBI), Auhua (ACE), New World Oil & Gas (NEW), ADVFN (AFN), Sefton Resources (SER) Holders Technology (HDT) and Northern Petroleum (NOP) 


2443 days ago

Tom Winnifrith BearCast - 13 May

Back from lunch with my old Dad who is now in Greece this podcast looks at inter alia New World Oil & Gas, Daniel Stewart and in detail Mosman Oil & Gas and Northern Petroleum.


2470 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 16 April

Not hungover and after my first full night's sleep since Saturday I am back with my normal balanced and tolerant view of the AIM casino. Where do I start? Horse Hill, the POS ValiRx, Foxtons, Premaitha, Plethora, Telecom Plus (expect real fireworks on that one from Kevin Ashton on Saturday), Northern Petroleum and China Norfolk Jiasen.


2486 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 31 March

In today's podcast recorded with my cats Tara and the morbidly obese three legged Oakley listening carefully I look at Daniel Stewart (more to come on that), Coms, Hunter Resources, Gulf Keystone and free speech on ShareProphets, Premaitha, Aquatic Foods, Nanoco and - in detail - Northern Petroleum


2497 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 20th March

I save the best, Quindell, to the end of the podcast but ahead of that cover Gulfsands Petroleum, Igas, Gulf Keystone, Northern Petroleum, Mosman Oil & Gas, Afren, Digital Globe ( read Steve's piece HERE), Daniel Stewart, Gate Ventures before ending with Quenron and PWC.

If you enjoy this sort of thing you will love UK Investor Show. With fewer than 200 of 2,000 seats left for April 18th book your place now HERE


2525 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 18 February - have fled Police in UK now in Greece edition

I cannot resist making a joke I made earlier about getting past passport control. That and a favour asked of all Bearcast listeners starts today's podcast, delayed because the internet connection from Kalamata is painfully slow. When we get there I shall discuss Naibu, Camkids, China Chaintek, Northern Petroleum (a genuine request to its lamentable board made in the spirit of friendship becuase I am such a nice guy), Alecto, Afren, Frontier Mining, Motive TV and Nighthawk.

I shoud have mentioned Rangers but forgot. It has had to abandon a second London hotel location for its EGM which will now be held at Ibrox in Glasgow which is big enough and is where all the shareholders live. The EGM should always have been held at Ibrox, any other location was a clear attempt to disenfranchise fans who hate the board. They now have another reason to hate the board and will, I hope, vote en masse to oust them.


2526 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - Fleeing the country edition

Just to get in ahead of the Bulletin Board Morons, I am set to flee the country to avoid the Old Bill now that Worthington has called them in. No, only kidding - my trip to Greece was planned a while ago as you can see on In this podcast I look at Northern Petroleum, Hargreaves Services, equity valuations and then in some detail Kenmare. There is also a taster on the FRAUD Worthington - just a little warning for what I plan for tomorrow for Doug Ware.


2526 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 16 February - Market abuse and other matters

In today's podcast I discuss what exactly is market abuse and who commits it. I talk about how I reported myself for market abuse to the FCA when dealing with bully boy lawyers from Range Resources. And who really commits it. At a company level I look at 3 Legs Resources, Afren , TXO, Northern Petroleum and Mosman Oil and Gas.


2531 days ago

Northern Petroleum – sack the board! NOW!

As a company director it is hard to admit that you are wrong. And thus good money is thrown after bad. That is what is happening at Northern Petroleum (NOP) and for shareholders to get anything back the board must be sacked now.

The bottom line is that Northern will be out of cash by Christmas. The board may not repeat its 2013 crime against financial humanity by paying itself a bonus for 2014 but it is expensive. It will preserve its place on the gravy train with a rescue placing which will keep the lights on for another year but will not allow any value to be created for shareholders. And so I propose:


2532 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 13 February - Mark Slater & other matters

Sorry for the delay. Note to scumbag FT writers - if you wish to lift anything in this Bearcast please give an attribution rather than claim it as your own scoop. Dan McCrum you know what I am talking about. I know you work for the FT but that does not mean you HAVE to act like a total wanker. In today's podcast I discuss a chat with Mark Slater on China and various other matters, commodity prices, frauds, Verdes, Mosman Oil & Gas, Northern Petroleum, Aoerama Communications, Gowin New, JQW, Shaft Sinkers and Mariana (a scoop there if you want to steal it as well McCrum you wanker)


2535 days ago

Northern Petroleum – what a total fucking omnishambles of an RNS

I have already explained in my Bearcast why Keith Bush, the CEO of AIM casino POS Northern Petroleum (NOP) should be taken out and strung up with piano wire for the contempt with which he has treated the owners of this company where he has been rewarded for abject failure. But today’s RNS requires further comment as it is a classic in omnishambles obfuscation. 

Less than a month ago Northern was goaded by my good self into using a trading statement. It stated what year-end net cash was and stated that output on 27 December had reached almost 500 bopd and that once well 4 in Canada was on-stream it would be at 450-500 bopd. That was a downgrade but still impressed a few punters.

Here we are 29 days later


2535 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 10 February

I start - as I would always do when I err - with an apology and correction on Scholium as per yesterday's Bearcast. I then go onto high handed CEOs who say they do not care about Private Investors and get a big come uppance. Step forward the little shit who runs Northern Petroleum, Keith Bush. I comment on Inspirit and Ambrian and going back to oil I disagree strongly with Ben Turney (HERE), Gulf Keystone remains a stonking sell. I also touch on Igas, Afren and Hurricane. En passant I touch on the china frauds like China Chaitek and Camkids.

To support our continuing campaign against fraud on the AIM casino click HERE


2556 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 20 January - oil prices, oil stocks and time to revisit 0p target for Quindell?

In today's podcast I start with oil stocks and oil prices and discuss why I would not touch any of them with a bargepole - particular mentions of Tangiers Petroleum, Falklands Oil & gas, Rockhopper, Igas, Northern Petroleum and the rampers of Mosman Oil & Gas. I then move onto Quindell discussing whether my 0p target is too low.


2561 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 15 January

Again I am a little late with today's podcast. Back to normal in Bristol on Friday but I have an excuse. On the agenda today, Touchstone Gold and crony capitalist Steve Berry, equity valuations, Alecto, Northern Petroleum, oil prices, IGAS ( happy anniversary to Andrew "Piggy Austin" ahead of tomorrow), Optimal Payments, LGO Energy, Enteq Upstream and Paul Scott.


2563 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast special - 4 oil stocks and a recruiter

In this podcast I look at levels of disclosure in trading statements and how only some companies understand who owns them (shareholders). I cover, en passant ,Michael Page and in detail Igas, Leyshon Energy, Iofina and Northern Petroleum


2563 days ago

Northern Petroleum forced into issuing a (lack of) profits warning but why is it still not coming clean

A vicious Bearcast at the weekend appears to have forced Northern Petroleum (NOP) into issuing a profits (or lack of) warning but it is still not coming clean with its long suffering shareholders – why does this company regard transparency as a four letter word? The shares are off again today to 10.5p but remain a sell with an initial 5p target. 

Where do we start?


2565 days ago

Tom Winnifrith BearCast 11 January

This is a two part podcast. First I look at Northern Petroleum and its woes and explain why I have a 5p target for the shares ( now 11.5p) the a section on earnings visibility and valuing companies that might be breaking the law or ripping off their customers.


2566 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 10 January

In today's podcast I refer to the excellent Black Swan 2015 review by Richard Poulden which you should all read. I cover the issue of how low the oil price could go but also what we as investors should assume that it will be. I touch on IGAS and Northern Petroleum (both shorts). And the I look at the issue of what constitutes market abuse in the Bulletin Board Moron community


2583 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Christmas Eve Bearcast

Happy Christmas to you all - unless you are a director of Quindell. More on that later.  This Bearcast explains why Ben Turney is 100% wrong to back the board at Gulfsands Petroleum - it should be booted out at once. I also look at Charaat Gold (pathetic placing), Deltex Medical (POS & Profits warning) and at a range of oil juniors notably IGAS, Northern Petroleum, Enegi Oil and IGAS - suggesting a new stress test for your holdings in this sector.


2590 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 17 December

In a wide ranging and opinionated (natch) podcast Tom covers Ultrasis, the nature of investing, EKF Diagnostics, Share PLC, Audioboom, Igas, Gulf Keystone, Gulfsands Petroleum, Northern Petroleum, Central rand and natch Quindell


2594 days ago

Tom Winnifrith BearCast - 80% of AIM oil stocks to go bust?

Okay that grabbed your attention. I do not believe it but that was the claim made by an industry grey hair as we chatted yesterday. Some will go under however, the world has changed. I look at IGAS, Northern Petroleum, Adriatic Oil, Spitfire Oil, Mosman Oil & Gas in particular and the sector in general in a podcast special.


2638 days ago

The Northern Petroleum Rampathon, Proactive Investors and Crony Capitalism on AIM

The pre rescue bailout placing ramping exercise of Northern Petroleum (NOP) continues on Wednesday with a presentation somewhere in the Grim North organised by Proactive investors. A missive from Proactive sales bird Sophie Barrowman (pictured) last week tells you all you need to know about how the AIM Casino operates. Sophie gushes in semi-orgasmic tones:

We are very excited to announce our third company for next week's line-up, Northern Petroleum which we expect to significantly outperform over the next 12 months. The shares jumped almost 20% on Tuesday due to outstanding flow rates from a well drilled in Canada. The first of THREE new wells drilled at the Keg River project has tested at a rate of 1,300 barrels of oil per day. Northern has a market cap of just £15mln… it will rerate


Where do I start?


2645 days ago

Tom Winnifrith's BearCast 23rd October

A wide ranging podcast today covers themes general and specific: Northern Petroleum, Foxtons, UK house prices, Ultrasis, Quindell, Diamondcorp, political risk and South Africa, It will be different this time (it won't be), dead cat bounces and more


2646 days ago

BearCast Special: Deciphering the misleading or distracting RNS or RNS Reach - 4 case studies from today

The normal Bearcast will be up a bit later. However I was struck by news releases issued today by ASOS (ASC), Northern Petroleum (NOP), Blur (BLUR) and Globo (GBO) and so recorded a podcast special. Superficially it might seem like good news all round, however:


2646 days ago

Tom Winnifrith’s BearCast 17th October

Where is that dam Quindell (QPP) video? I am really getting pissed off now, I was promised it last night and it has still not arrived. Fingers crossed. Meanwhile the podcast is back on an up day for the markets – an opportunity to offload duff stocks in my view. This bearcast covers:

Naibu, Netplay, Rolls Royce, Spectra, Sovereign Mines of Africa, Northern Petroleum and Quenron. I make general points about non UK stocks listed here, investing in stocks with no barriers to entry versus Buffett plays and about lobster pots.


2720 days ago

Northern Petroleum and its alarming (and poorly disguised) cash burn

At the year-end Northern Petroleum (NOP) reported its cash in Euros – 26.5 million. Yesterday it boasted of its cash balance in dollars $22 million. I guess someone might have fallen for that sleight of hand – it could have been transparent and used a number of 16.5 million Euro. But transparency and the AIM Cesspit? Enough said.


2732 days ago

Northern Petroleum UK asset sale at give-away price – just how bad is its cash position?

I noted here the other day that Northern Petroleum (NOP) is heading for a cash call. Today it has announced the sale of its UK assets for £1.5 million to UK Oil & Gas (UKOG). It’s a great deal for UK Oil & Gas but it tells you that Northern needs cash. Fast.


2735 days ago

David Lenigas in video action explaining why UK Oil & Gas shares are so exciting

The deal of the day for today was undoubtedly the purchase by UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) of the UK assets of cash desparate Northern Petroleum (NOP). The man behind that deal was David Lenigas.

Here is Dave in video action at the UK Investor Show 2014 explaining why Uis so exciting.


2740 days ago

Prostitute Researcher Edison talks bollocks as Northern Petroleum plans a bailout cash call

Northern Petroleum (NOP) is running out of money. A cash call is inevitable and it will happen before Christmas.  Hence prostitute researcher Edison has “reinitiated coverage”. That means Northern has paid it a cheque to write bullshit so that private investors are suckered into buying the stock before institutions buy in at a whopping discount. The Edison note says it all. It is a classic.

I quote:


2768 days ago

How quickly sentiment changes – ref small oil stocks: the force is with them

I had lunch yesterday in Bristol with an old pal from the oil industry. A few months ago his AIM listed company tied to raise a few hundred thousand pounds and boy was it hard work. The other day he raised well over a million quid and he said he could have done it twice over. Has anything changed with his company? Not really.  This is just sentiment.

However, I caution that this is not a change that has affected all oil stocks on AIM. The bigger more cumbersome plays have so disgraced themselves with executive greed (I think particularly here of the pigs on the Northern Petroleum (NOP) board awarding themselves bonuses after racking up record losses) and operational failure in recent years that they still cannot be forgiven.

Instead it is the tiny pure exploration play with no pretention of becoming integrated E&P’s that are flying. Mosman Oil & Gas, Tangiers Petroleum, Astar etc have all raced ahead in the past week. Mosman actually found something with the other two it is just anticipation and in the case of Astar bogus RNS releases. What exactly has Mosman found? Well we do not know, but the mood music now is “buy quickly, ask questions later” which is a total change from a few months ago.

Having been a no-go area for years UK onshore is now suddenly hot once again – hence excitement at UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) – where RMPC owns shares -  and


2803 days ago

Northern Petroleum – Boardroom bonuses for what FFS? Shareholders can fight back today

A copy of the Northern Petroleum (NOP) annual report lands on my desk. Thud. A lot of trees went to produce this weighty tome which places undue prominence on 'elf n safey, Corporate & Social Responsibility, etc, etc. That is all a smokescreen of sanctimony to mask an act of brutal AIM Cesspit crony capitaism. Naturally I turn straight to page 87 of 96 and there it is. Bonuses for directors! WTF?

In 2013 the bonuses for Northern’s three executive directors were: Keith Bush (CEO) £30,000, Nick Morgan (FD) £24,000 and Graham Heard £20,000. In 2012 no directors were awarded bonuses.

I would point out that in 2013 Northern reported a loss before tax from continuing operations of 27.266 million Euro. The share price was 55p at the start of the year. It ended the year at 30p and is now 26p.

Heck if the company had only seen its shares slump by 30% rather than halve what sort on bonus would the lucky lads have picked up then? This is obviously a case where the interests of greedy directors are utterly non-aligned with those of shareholders. And also of staff. I note that given Northern’s vast cashburn, about half a dozen staff have been handed p45s in the past month or so. So let’s fire a few workers to pay for bonuses for directors who have destroyed shareholder value big time. Do you think that is right? I do not.

I put it to Keith Bush that this boardroom greed was just not acceptable and he replied that the bonuses were:


2948 days ago

The Gold Medal for burying bad News on Christmas Eve. Nominations and a Winner c/o Peter Redmond

Heck we have some bad news…when will we tell shareholders? Oh…how about Christmas Eve? It is a half day. No-one will notice and by the time they do we can think of some good news to announce or go on holiday? The bosses of the AIM Cesspit think they are being smart and will get away with it. But I am here to make sure you missed none of the horrors snuck out today and to give them maximum PR.

The nominations for the gold medal for sneaking bad news out on Christmas Eve are:

1. Tullow Oil (TLW) abandons 80% owned Norwegian exploration well as a duster

2. Verdes Management (VMP) fesses up that it was meant to have received £125,000 of a rescue £500,000 loan facility by 20th December but it has not arrived yet.

3. City of London Group (CIN) says that the £17.4 million it was promised in a placing has yet again still not arrived and so the deal is off. Will have to seek alternative funding. Chairman and NED quit.

4. Northern Petroleum (NOP) says that it is writing down its Italian assets from 2P to 3C category. It will have full details in New Year but is whetting our appetite now, i.e. softening the blow by announcing when no-one is watching.

5. Albemarle & Bond (ABM) – Better capital the lead bidder fo0r its assets walks.

6. Kennedy Ventures (KENV) serves up atrocious annual results and warns of funding gap.

Now it is possible that one or two of the above only heard the bad news late yesterday and so had to announce today. On that basis I will give Tullow, Northern and Albemarle the benefit of the doubt although I cannot say that I am impressed with any of them. That leaves three contenders for this annual award of shame. In reverse order.


3067 days ago

Northern Petroleum: Canada Update and meeting the new head honcho Keith Bush

AIM listed oil stock Northern Petroleum (NOP) announced last week that 3D seismic data purchased and interpreted since the company acquired its leases in northern Alberta, Canada “has increased the number and type of drilling opportunities available on the land… (these) include the identification of undrilled reef structures as well as reefs which may benefit from drilling up-structure from the previous entry point”. With also formal assignment of existing wellbores from previous operators taking longer than usual (the drilling of a new well and a side track not affected by this), the company notes that “the final proof of concept well sequence will be adapted to reflect this”


3138 days ago

Northern Petroleum - boardroom changes CAN matter

AIM-listed oil and gas company Northern Petroleum (NOP) has announced the departure of director Maurice Eaton who joined the company in 2007 and became Director of Operations in June 2011. The company added “Maurice’s departure is the first of a series of changes to board roles and executive responsibilities including the roles of Chairman and Managing Director planned during 2013”.

Although very long-term shareholders may still be in an ok position here – I initially recommended these shares as a hot tip at the equivalent of 13.75p in December 2001 – the performance in more recent years has been undoubtedly disappointing – the shares down from more than 160p in October 2009 and more than 100p as recently as May 2011 to a current 36p.

But the last sentence of this release is fascinating. Chairman Richard Latham has been a member of the company’s board since 1995 and was appointed Non-Executive Chairman in 1999, whilst Managing Director Derek Musgrove


3244 days ago

Goldman Sachs: Northern Petroleum Upgraded to Conviction Buy at 56p – target price 121p

I just happen to have this broker report in my inbox. I agree with its conclusion. And so here goes mightly Goldman Sachs on tiny AIM listed oil stock Northern Petroleum (LSE:NOP).


3321 days ago

Video Postcard Number 19

Recording in freezing and wet Warwickshire with a new camera I hope the sound and picture quality is alright. My old camera has gone astray somewhere between Real Man Pizza Company, drinks with Lucian and St Albans. I fear it will not be seen again.

On the Agenda

1. Nigel Farage joins the speaker line-up at UKInvestor Show on April 13th. A real buncjh of men and women who one would describe as a Master Investor plus Farage. It really is a cracking lineup and you can book your tickets here.

2. Another two tips out this week on the Nifty Fifty. You can gain immediate access ahead of two more tips next week here.

3. Centamin and the idea of quantifying political risk in any stock

4. Northern Petroleum, director buying and market over-reaction

5. Plans for a Christmas slowdown by me

You can watch the video below:

Approximate Running Time 9 minutes


3324 days ago

Northern Petroleum: unlocking value in 2013?

Some companies are loved by one and all and so trade at a clear premium to underlying value – Next & ARM for example. For others, the reverse is true. Northern Petroleum is in the latter camp. That is an endless source of frustration as evidenced by the stream of adverse comments on Bulletin Boards, mostly directed, rightly or wrongly, against the company’s boss Derek Musgrove.

To be fair to Musgrove – who I should say is a friend with whom I have watched West Ham for many years – when he arrived at Northern the share price was sub 10p (adjusting for consolidation) and the asset backing was more or less nothing. That was just over twelve years ago. Today the share price is 53.25p ( Musgrove having just bought 25,000 shares yesterday) and the company is sitting on £20 million of net cash and a raft of assets. Overall that is not a bad recovery – a share price gain of 450% over 12 years is, after all, better than Warren Buffett.


3325 days ago

Northern Petroleum/Wessex/Tullow – GCSE Geography Lesson for Morons

PrintYesterday Tullow (LSE:TLW) announced that it had let its interests in Guyana drop. The press office at Northern Petroleum (LSE:NOP) has fielded a number of calls about how Northern was going to proceed with its drilling campaign in the area. Is this an indictment of how badly history is taught in schools or how badly geography is taught?


3333 days ago

Sell Wessex Exploration – Buy Northern Petroleum

Shares in both AIM listed oil stocks have slumped today. Northern (LSE:NOP) is off by c14% at 54.75p, Wessex (LSE:WSX) by 21% at 4.8p. Not a good day for either. The reason is that the Zaedyus-2 well in Guyane does not appear to have found commercial oil although we will not get full data for another ten days or so – logging starts tomorrow. Though I am a Northern bull I am in a sense vindicated as well ahead of drilling I argued that folks should take a pair trade: buy Northern at 67p and sell Wessex at a share price of 8.375p. If you followed that pair trade you would be a net 24% ahead. That is smart investing.


3333 days ago

Northern Petroleum – Probably Duff Well, Company chat and market over-reaction – Wessex it is different

I published most of this share tip article earlier on my Nifty Fifty website – where I shall publish a new share tip later today: The Zeadyus-2 well in Guyane has not found commercial oil and has been abandoned. The share price of Northern Petroleum (LSE:NOP) has duly slumped by 14% to 54.75p. This is a total market over-reaction. I have discussed this at length with exploration manager Graham Heard and CEO Derek Musgrove and here’s the score. The shares remain a buy. The same cannot be said for Wessex Exploration (LSE:WSX) which like Northern also has a 1.25% stake in this field.


3358 days ago

Northern Petroleum Board Upgrade – A Step in the Right Direction

I tipped oil and gas producer and explorer Northern Petroleum on, the site I founded in 2000 and edited until this September at 13.75p. The shares raced ahead to almost 150p but have since declined to just 64.75p. But news out today suggests that the company is making a step in addressing one issue it has, next up we await drilling news from Guyane.


3380 days ago

Wessex Exploration vs Northern Petroleum – madness

Shares in both Wessex Exploration (WSX) and Northern Petroleum (NOP) have moved ahead sharply in recent days. We all know why these AIM listed oil explorers are in demand. Drilling is underway of the Zaedyus well in Guyane. This might well be a monster and both companies have a 1.25% stake in it. But the respective valuations are now insane.


3394 days ago

Northern Petroleum/Wessex – short delay on Guyane News ( and Tullow note)

Followers of AIM listed oil stocks Northern Petroleum (LSE:NOP) and Wessex Exploration (LSE:WSX) might have been expecting news from the second well to be drilled in Guyane in early November. I should warn them that it now looks likely to be late November. It does not change the story for Wessex or Northern much of an iota as I shall explain below, but update your calendars.


3421 days ago

Northern Petroleum – Tosca well abandoned – almost irrelevant

AIM listed oil and gas producer and explorer Northern Petroleum (NOP) farmed out its La Tosca gas play in the Po valley. So its costs in drilling the well were trivial. It was announced today that the well has been abandoned as a write off. In the greater scheme of things this is pretty irrelevant. It might have been worth a couple of pence per share to Northern it is now worth zero pence in total.

In contrast


3424 days ago

Northern Petroleum – CEO Catch Up – Shares a strong buy

I met up with Derek Musgrove, CEO of AIM listed oil and gas producer and explorer Northern Petroleum (NOP) last night. He is an opinionated man but we disagree on little and so the conversation was wide ranging. But I guess you do not wish to here a detailed analysis of our predictions for West Ham this season (Musgrove is a lifelong hammer) but about Northern Petroleum. I am afraid that it is pretty much steady as she goes. No fireworks are likely in the short term but the stock is just ludicrously undervalued at 67.5p – giving it a market capitalisation of £64 million.

For starters Northern sits on a cash pile of c£20 million


3424 days ago

I do not believe Wessex bid rumours - sell and switch into Northern Petroleum

It is a strange old world and I gather that some folks reckon that there is a bid on the way for AIM listed oil exploration penny share Wessex Exploration (WSX). I bet you 5000 Albanian Lekke that there is not and as such I would rate this stock, at 7.3p, a sell. If you want exposure to Guyane (the only real asset of note in Wessex) I would obtain it by buying AIM listed Northern Petroleum (NOP) at 67.5p.

On 26th March Wessex received a bid from Total at 10p a share. The company said that it was minded to accept. On 12th April Wessex said that having consulted some shareholders it had decided the offer was not good enough and walked. My sources tell me that Total was livid.

On 10th July Wessex managing director Frederik Dekker sold 5 million shares (leaving him holding c92 million shares) at 6p


3452 days ago

Northern Petroleum – Italy Drilling. It all helps

43 billion cubic feet of gas sounds like a lot. I am sorry to say that it is not as vast as it sounds. In fact it is rather small (call it 750,000 barrels of oil). This is the Tosca-1 well where AIM listed Northern Petroleum (NOP) has announced that it has now started drilling. It will take 40- days to reach target depth. The well is in the gas rich Po Valley in Italy. So why do we care?


3471 days ago

Northern Petroleum or a Falklands Explorer? Investing vs Punting

The Bulletin Board crazies love the Falkland Island explorers. Sometimes they zoom ahead. Sometimes they crash. But every day thousands of words are exchanged between these various loons, none of which add much, if anything, to the sum of human knowledge and nearly all of which are bullish. Real investing is so dull when you can enjoy the fun of the casino with companies such as Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) or Rockhopper (RKH). If Bob Diamond was an oil man he’d be floating another Falklands explorer: why bother with dull profitable companies such as Northern Petroleum (NOP). He’d probably short Northern (with other folk’s cash) just for the hell of it.

But here’s the rub, companies such as Falklands Oil & Gas are a total punt


3507 days ago

Cairn bid for Nautical – what next?

Cairn Energy (CNE) has today announced an agreed 450p a share cash bid for Nautical Petroleum (NPE). This is a 51% premium to the share price pre-talks but a discount to where some folks value Nautical (Westhouse reckons it is worth 550p and that a higher offer may emerge). What does this tell us about AIM listed oil stocks and also where to hunt for value.

Well firstly, even at $86 oil the bigger producers are chucking off a lot of cash. Exploration is high risk (even with modern technology) and so with AIM small-mid caps pretty bombed out it is probably safer to bulk up reserves by “drilling in the City.” Hence the recent Shell bid for Cove and Dragon’s move on Bowleven and Premier’s bid for Encore. Remember also the Total bid for Wessex which its board ( for reasons I simply cannot fathom) rejected. There will be more bids.


3513 days ago

Northern Petroleum – 61.75p: Surely a snip?

I am actually on holiday this week having fun writing about Cheryl Cole, Rinka, Polly Toynbee, cheap beer, Linkedin hackers and all sorts of things non-financial. But I am drawn back to the world finance by a crazy share price.

The market cap of this company with cash and which is profitable is now sub £60 million. This is crackers. I know that Northern Petroleum (NOP) has not always hit its targets but this is just silly season stuff.