Personal and undiluted views
Sam Bottell

2969 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Antofagasta still a sell

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share sell tip on FTSE 100 listed copper giant  Antofagasta. Sam writes...

I have been bearish about Antofagasta (ANTO) twice on these pages, twice suggesting that the shares were overvalued.  The publication of calendar 2012 results on March 12th improves the story a little but not dramatically.  The shares have fallen sharply since my original bear calls and as such some might speculate that the copper giant offers bottom fishing appeal at £10.29, valuing the FTSE 100 mining giant at £10.144 billion.

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2971 days ago

Guest share tip: Sam Bottell buy Premier Oil

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip on FTSE 250 listed Premier Oil. Sam writes...

The calendar 2012 results for Premier Oil (PMO) came out on March 21 and following a detailed trading update in January there were no great surprises.  The shares have moved along steadily since mid-January when I noted their attractions HERE at 367p and now trade at 393p, valuing this FTSE 250 listed oil producer at £2.08 billion.

2012 was a good year but should have been better.  The key for Premier is that it has built in growth which is fully funded moving forward.

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2978 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell on Petropavlosk: Jam Tomorrow does not pay the bills

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Petropavlosk. Sam writes...

I wrote bearishly regarding shares in Petropavlovsk (POG) on February 22nd at a then year low of 302.5p.  Since then the gold company has updated investors on growth in its resource base but it is cash flow from production that pays the bills and after a rotten two years for this sector, investors want jam today and not tomorrow.  The shares now trade at 248p.

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2978 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Ophir Energy

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Ophir Energy. Sam writes...

Ophir (OPHR) Energy is a rare beast among FTSE 250 oil stocks in that it has almost no production and will not have for several years.  It is like those junior E&P stocks so beloved of Bulletin Board followers but, at 458p, it is capitalised at £1.927 billion.  Having just raised c£525 million net of expenses it is fully funded to carry out a widespread exploration programme until mid-2014 across a number of territories but can you really justify the current price tag?

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2985 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on silver play Hochschild - was I wrong?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Hochschild Mining. Sam writes...

It has not been the greatest call of my career.  I rated shares in silver miner Hochschild Mining (HOC) as a buy here at 424.9p less than two months ago.  The shares now stand at 352p and self-evidently there is a bit of egg on my face.  Was my call wrong?  Are the shares even cheaper today?

To be fair to myself one of the attractions of buying this company is that it is the only serious, well managed pure silver producer listed in London.  That still remains the case.  Those of us who are long term silver bulls can buy the stock and as silver increases sharply during the next few years we will inevitably gain.  However we must accept that there will be periods when the silver price retraces during its long term uptrend and Hochschild shares will retrace in line with that.  Day one of those silver price retracements occurred just after I published that buy tip.

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2998 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Petra Diamonds

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Petra Diamonds. Sam writes…

Shares in Petra Diamonds (PDL) have risen since the publication of results for the six months to December 31st on 25th February. Supporters point to upbeat comments about the future by CEO Johan Dippenaar and to the fact that fairly “ordinary “ numbers were well flagged in an end January trading statement. “Look to the future” we are told but at 118p the company is capitalised at £602 million and is the future that sparkling? .

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3000 days ago

Guest Share tip: Sam Bottell buy Heritage Oil & Gas

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip on Heritage Oil & Gas which I am minded to say is correct in its conclusion. Sam writes…

The founder of FTSE 250 Listed Heritage Oil (HOIL) is a colourful gent but the way that he has grown Heritage from scratch is exemplary. The recent final disposal of the company’s last stake in its Kurdish assets meant that since its inception this company has now realised $2 billion from disposals since its inception and that cash has been reinvested to create an attractive asset base which is not recognised in the current share price. In a sector with few quality players this is a stand out buy.

The company now sits on free cash of c$172 million. It has another $405 million set aside should it lose a tax dispute case in Uganda and it says that its legal opinion is that it will win. Either way it is not short of cash. The company has some producing assets in Russia and exploration potential in Libya, Malta and Tanzania. This has potential but is not the key value driver. That is block OML 30 in Nigeria where the company has an effective 31.5% stake; this aea is a vast block where production is already substantial but will grow at an incredibly rate in the years up to 2020.

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3003 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Petropavlovsk (POG) – 2013 Guidance reduced – shares at year low but still a sell?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on Petropavlovsk. Sam writes…

A mid January trading statement from FTSE 250 listed Russia based gold miner Petropavlovsk (POG) was not entirely well received: although 2012 output will be ahead of estimates, 2013 guidance was reduced. That and the recent weakness in the gold price has seen the shares, which were trading at 750p a year ago, fall back to 302.5p, valuing the company at £567 million, but this is not one to bottom fish.

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3003 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Gold – Is the sell off the start of a bear market?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on the gold price – ‘natch I agree with the great metals guru. Sam writes…

Those who have called the top in gold at $800, $1,200 and $1,500 are again predicting the start of another gold market following the recent sell off down to $1565 oz. They are joined by newer names such as Goldman Sachs which has cut its long term price target to $1,200 oz and Citigroup which says that the bull market is officially over. The chartists have also joined in with talk of a “death cross”. They are in my view wrong, the long term uptrend will continue and gold bugs need to simply hold their nerves.

As a rare digression into technical analysis, I just point that there is no Death’s Cross – when the 50 day MA falls below the 200 day MA. That can happen only if the 200 day MA is declining, it happens to be rising.

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3005 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Plexus Holdings

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Plexus Holdings. Sam writes…

I see that Plexus (POS) was last night awarded the title “Best Oil & Gas stock” at the Stock Market Wire Awards awards ceremony in London. It is an absolute darling of the Bulletin Boards which is not surprising as it has delivered spectacular returns for shareholders. There is a good reason for that: its POS-GRIP wellhead technology is clearly world class and is much in demand, but the share price is now 240p valuing the business at £199 million. On the basis of what we know is the share price just a bit ahead of itself?

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3006 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kryso Resources - Project Delay – Share price overreacts – a buying opportunity

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Kryso Resources. Having spoken to Kryso CEO Craig Brown yesterday I agree with Sam’s conclusion. Sam writes…

Shares in Kryso Resources (KYS) are off by 7% today after it announced that it would not complete the construction of its Pakrut gold mine in Tajikistan by March 2014 as previously scheduled and that a new completion date would be announced “in due course”. The company has spoken and the market has over-reacted.

The project has been delayed by a few months but work is now on track albeit a few months behind schedule. There is even the possibility of a catch up occurring if additional resources are brought in. The delay (which will be just a few months) does not create any cashflow issues for Kryso; and for a mine with a 14 year estimated life (and it could be longer) a delay of three or four months really does not make a jot of difference to any DCF valuation. The fact that Kryso operates in Tajikistan which some might consider a more exotic location might add to the way that investors have been un-nerved but I view this as a buying opportunity.

The maths are not complex

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3007 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on African Barrick

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on gold miner African Barrick, a company I know little about. Sam writes…

I have written twice about African Barrick (ABG) here in the past six weeks and both times recommended the shares as having long term attractions on a fundamental basis at 355p, notwithstanding the withdrawal of bid approaches around Christmas. Following the publication of full year numbers on 13th February the shares trade at 295p which begs the question of whether it is time to admit that I was wrong?

I am not hiding from my previous buy tip. You can find it

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3008 days ago

Resource expert Sam Bottell's 7 Top UK Oil Picks Revealed

Ok, cut out the emails and stop pestering me. This report went out on onefreesharetip.com on Friday and it seems that stacks of punters could not be bothered to register (it costs nothing) and have now decided to plague me to send it to them. Okay, just to give my email in-box a break, here you all are. But this is the last time I shall be republishing a onefreesharetip.com tip or special report. If you want to make sure you get the next special report 8 explosive small cap stocks to buy now by ex t1ps senior writer Steve Moore – due out next Thursday) plus a free share tip every working day just go and sign up. It is free and you can do it HERE

Now, as I head off to watch recordings of the last two episides of Dallas ( I just cannot escape oil) here is that report from Sam:

Everyone should have some oil exposure in their portfolio. Long run supply demand patterns are impossible to predict but in the short to medium term there is always the risk of a Black Swan event that disrupts supply and sends the price of oil spiking sharply higher. I suppose that the odds on favourite for a 2013 Black Swan (if that is not a contradiction in terms) is Israel attacking Iran. The second obvious Black Swan event would be civil unrest in a major oil producing state. Might Saudi Arabia, for instance, have its own “Arab Spring?”

If oil spikes higher oil stocks, especially those with production, will – thanks to operational gearing see windfall net income gains and their shares will move sharply higher. But non oil stocks, facing sharply increased fuel bills and so reduced margins will head the other way. And it is for this reason that everyone should have some oil exposure within a balanced portfolio as a hedge.

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3009 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Anglo American the writedowns are only just starting - Sell!

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on the Anglo American. It is a compelling read and not the sort of analysis you get in a broker note. Good stuff Sam.

Results from Anglo American (AAL) today are a handful. In a 40 page statement you have to wade through a lot of paperwork to find the salient points. Perhaps when you are reporting a headline loss of $1.49 billion – your first loss in a decade – you really are not that minded to make life easy for commentators., but this will not be the last headline loss, whatever the company says and the shares – at £20.47 – remain materially overvalued.

The results for calendar 2012 are terrible, no wonder Cynthia Carroll stood down as CEO. The net loss for 2011 compared to a net profit of $6.17 billion in 2011. If one strips out exceptional items the underlying profit was $6.16 billion – that was still a fall of 44% on 2011 with the company blaming this largely on lower metals prices.

What pushed the company into the red were a series of writedowns

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3010 days ago

New Guest Post by Sam Bottell: The Major Gold Producers – a sector “steeped in mediocrity”

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on the major gold producers across the globe (85 of them). It is very interesting indeed.

Did you wonder why when gold was racing ahead to $1,700 most gold stocks failed to follow suit? You would think that operational gearing would have seen gold stocks racing ahead across the board. As a believer in gold heading past $2,000 within 12 months you would have thought that I would be universally bullish but those who have read my work will know that I am not. As such I thought it worth reprinting an excerpt from a note published this week by analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard who makes a very valid point.

Reviewing 85 gold producers from across the globe he finds just 11 that manage a 25% return on capital. That is truly dismal. Bade’s conclusion is that the obsession with stock promotion has led to an increasing focus on production targets and valuations based simply on per ounces in the ground rather than on what return investors might actually generate. He writes:

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3011 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Pan African is a buy

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Pan African Resources. For what it is worth I agree with his conclusion!

South African gold miner Pan African Resources (PAF) has reported its results for the six months to 31 December 2012 and they are somewhat disappointing but do not affect the strong long term buy case. The shares have dipped to 18.75p on the numbers which makes for an attractive entry point.

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3013 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Madagascar Oil

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Madagascar Oil.

AIM listed Madagascar Oil (MOIL) had well publicised funding issues in the second half of last year caused by $17 million cost over-runs on the development of its Tsimiroro heavy oil field in Madagascar. However, boardroom changes have been made and today it has announced the completion of a placing and open offer (62.6% taken up) at 18p raising £49.5 million, which allows it to put its problems behind it and allows investors to look at what its assets are actually worth. Is a £100 million market capitalisation at 19p harsh? I think that it is.

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3014 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell says Buy Centamin

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a tip from TradingResearch Point on Centamin. For what it is worth I disagree with his conclusion!

Centamin Egypt (CEY) has been in the spotlight for six months because of the well publicised political difficulties in Egypt where it operates the Sukari gold mine. These problems have seen the shares fall sharply to 61p today which values the company at £669 million. Ignoring this backdrop of poitical strife and excitment – the underlying fact is that Sukari is a world class, cash generative and growing operation. That is not discounted in the share price and with a sense that stability is returning to Egypt the shares are a buy.

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3016 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Aquarius Platinum

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Aquarius Platinum I agree with his conclusion.

It is no surprise that results from Aquarius Platinum (AQP) for the six months to 31st December were poor. That was well flagged. The shares actually moved ahead on the numbers and that is down to the statement which contained a number of gems which indicate that the shares are materially undervalued.

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3018 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Afferro Mining – One bidder out, no reason to sell

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a tip from TradingResearch Point on Afferro.

Shares in AIM and TSX listed African mine developer Afferro Mining (AFF) fell by 5p at 74.5p today on news that one potential bidder for the company is now out of the running. The market never likes such news but it overlooks the fact that there are still a number of corporate discussions still ongoing but, perhaps more importantly, that the shares are fundamentally cheap. I view this as a buying opportunity

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3019 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Petroceltic: a buying opportunity?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share sell tip from TradingResearch Point on Ireland based Petroceltic

2013 was meant to be the year when Petroceltic moved on from corporate activity (the purchase of Melrose) to exploration success and so it is rather disappointing that it has started the year with a duster in Egypt. With sentiment towards the oil mid caps and juniors already somewhat dampened by drill bit failure elsewhere (notably with a range of Falklands stocks HERE) it is not surprising that this news has not been received well. Whilst serving as a reminder that exploration is inherently risky this does not alter the strong buy case for this Ireland based firm.

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3020 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell keep selling Antofagasta

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share sell tip from TradingResearch Point on Antofagasta. I happen to agree with his conclusion.

A calendar 2012 trading statement published on January 30th by FTSE 100 listed Chilean copper miner Antofagasta (ANTO) did not disappoint us bears. If anything it gave us further encouragement. It is not just that the 2012 numbers were mildly disappointing but that the 2013 guidance is very weak and with the macro outlook for copper unhelpful this is not going to be a good year for the company. Having advised selling at 1328p on January 10th the stance is unchanged now, even though the shares have already fallen back to 1127p.

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3021 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Kenmare Resources Trading Update

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Ireland’s Kenmare Resources. I happen to agree with his conclusion.

Fully listed Irish titanium minerals miner Kenmare Resources (KMR) has released a calendar 2012 trading statement which confirms some information (not all of it good) that had seeped into the market via company presentations earlier in January. However it also indicates that many of the problems encountered in 2012 have now been resolved, that no equity needs to be issued and gives real hope that, at last, the company is on a clear recovery and growth path.

In terms of the financials, Kenmare reports that 2012 revenues increased by 40% to $234.5 million as total, with total production from its Moma Titanium producing mine in Mozambique coming in at 772,000 tonnes

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3025 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Petra Diamonds

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Petra Diamonds. I happen to agree with his conclusion. In fact I’d be more damning.

Mining in South Africa is clearly not easy – something a trading statement from LSE listed Petra Diamonds (PDL) makes explicitly clear. The numbers for the six months to December 31st will be a bit disappointing but, worse, Petra guided investors to reduce their expectations for the year to June 30th. The shares now trade about 10% ahead of 12 month lows at 110p valuing Petra at £562 million but it appears hard to judge this company as the investor’s best friend at this level.

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3027 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Borders & Southern – Operations Update – Positive on the surface, but drill down to a sell

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Borders & Southern. I happen to agree with his conclusion.

The Falklands oil exploration stocks remain the darlings of the Bulletin Board but the bare fact is that while Rockhopper (RKH) has served up some good news the “field” has disappointed. Yet hope springs eternal and thus a presentation on 28th January from Borders & Southern (BOR) has sparked its shares into life once again sending the shares to 27.75p valuing the company at £133 million.

Borders has in the past enjoyed some success. In April 2011 it announced the Darwin find where initial tests suggested a gas condensate reserve of 130 to 250 million barrels of liquid. Recently the company re-asserted that a mid case recoverable reserve could be 210 million barrels. Note the words could be.

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3028 days ago

Guest post Sam Bottell: Nordgold – 2013 the recovery year

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Nordgold

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3031 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Hochschild Mining

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on African Hochschild – as it happens I agree with his thesis.

Hochschild Mining (HOC) in my opinion, is the only sensible way to get gearing to silver on the London market and as a silver bull that naturally arouses my interest. On 23rd January the company released its Q4 and calendar 2012 production numbers which came in ahead of expectations. It has a strong balance sheet and a clear pipeline for a marked ramp up in production. As such, at 424.9p valuing the company at £1.3 billion the stock is a buy. Here is why.

Whilst silver may be considered the poor man’s gold, the explosion in paper money as a result of QE has to drive inflation at some point and that should push gold higher dragging silver with it. But there is more. Increasing industrial and medical demand for silver means that, in my view, it will outstrip gold. As such I am a silver bull.

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3032 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Buy African Barrick Gold

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on African Barrick Gold.

African Barrick Gold (ABG) has in the past week updated investors with full year and fourth quarter production numbers – perhaps as critically it has secured a $142 million loan package in order to dramatically increase output from its Bulyanhulu mine which should drive its organic growth. The 2012 numbers were not that impressive and with investors already spooked by the collapse of a takeover approach from China National GoldCorporation the shares have retreated to 355p at a time when most gold mid caps have moved ahead sharply. I believe the market has over-reacted.

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3035 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Buy Xcite Energy at 102p – Target 181p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Bulletin Board darling Xcite Energy.

AIM oil explorer Xcite Energy (XEL) is a darling of the Bulletin Boards which is normally a good reason not to buy the shares. Indeed the shares have fallen from 395p in January 2011 to 103.25p today (they were 67.5p five months ago) and whilst this is not for the feint hearted, there is a string fundamental case for this £299 million capitalised company. I believe that the shares are worth 181p and are a buy.

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3037 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kentz Trading statement, buy tip vindicated

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Kentz where Sam has already been correct and is now doubling up.

It is always something of a risk recommending a share ahead of a trading statement. I took that risk with Kentz Corporation (KENZ) on January 6th and a trading statement today vindicated that call: earnings are in line with what I expected, the order backlog better than expected as was the net cash position. The last time I commented the shares were 381p – they closed today at 424p, valuing the company at £498 million.

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3039 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Pan African Resources (PAF) – Buy at 18p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Pan African where he is even more bullish than I am. I hope he is correct.

It is not often that you see a mining mid cap or junior announce a rights issue – the norm these days is a placing at a deep discount, but as part of its recent fund raise, LSE and JSE listed Pan African Resources (PAF) did just that. On 14th January the company announced that the offer (at 14p) has been 175% subscribed for. Given that the shares had moved ahead to 18p after the rights issue was announced I suppose that is not surprising but that Pan African has such widespread support ( and has seen its shares prosper) amid the gold stock bloodbath of 2012 is no mean feat. This was a penny stock going nowhere just a few years ago, so is there market excitement behind it now? I would argue not

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3040 days ago

Guest post: Sam Bottell - African Barrick Gold – Takeover disappointment, more to come?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip & perhaps breaking news from him from TradingResearch Point covering an interesting enough gold stock.

Takeover talks do not always end with happiness all round. That is a lesson that shareholders in African Barrick Gold (ABG) have learned to their cost in recent days. On 16th August the company announced that, in effect, it was in takeover talks with China National GoldGroup Corporation. The shares rocketed to 492p. On 8th January the company said that talks were off. The share price is now 355p valuing the company at £1.46 billion. Is it worth hanging on to the shares on a fundamental basis?

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3041 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kenmare Resources – Equity Placing on the Way?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip & perhaps breaking news from him from TradingResearch Point covering a company from the old country ( er…Ireland)

I argued a few days ago that shares in Kenmare Resources (KMR) were good value but I now flag up a minor caveat – there appears to be a risk of an equity placing. A secondary caveat is that Kenmare appears to have issued a minor profits warning without actually publishing an RNS – it merely guided down expectation via an analyst’s presentation. That is not quite cricket but does this alter the investment case materially?

The presentation flags up that there has been a one month delay in the start of commissioning the Moma mine expansion project – that was due to kick off in December. In the greater scheme of things for a mine with a 140 year life I can live with that but it is another nuisance that that has plagued Kenmare over many years.

More critically, there is an update on the company’s outlook for 2013.

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3042 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Premier Oil a buy ahead of Thursday?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

If one tracks the Bulletin Boards the excitement in the oil sector always seems to surround the smaller oil companies. As my former colleague from my days working with Oilbarrel and t1ps, Robert Sutherland Smith, recently noted here one always needs exposure to oil. However buying a pure E&P punt is a play on exploration success and only indirectly on the crude price – it is not a true hedge – and that brings me to Premier Oil (PMO) which is a FTSE 250 stock valued at £1.94 billion. Its production and proven reserve base more than underpin that valuation leaving the exploration upside in for virtually nothing, something I expect to be demonstrated in an operations update out on Thursday 17th January.

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3046 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Antofagasta: Two reasons to sell now at 1323p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

I tend to agree with the conclusion

While many small cap miners struggled in 2012 both operationally and as a result of negative investor sentiment, through a malign market, the disappointments were not necessarily confined to the small fish. With a market cap of £13.072 billion, Antofagasta is a company that packs a punch but its size doesn’t necessarily mean it’s immune to operational setbacks. But it also faces a major macro negative. The shares are a sell at 1328p and here is why.

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3047 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Petroceltic - a buy?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

In 2012 the focus of Ireland based AIM listed oil explorer and producer Petroceltic (PCI) was corporate – the merger with Melrose Resources. In 2013 the focus is on growing the business by exploration. Exploration is inherently risky but there are enough, fully funded, diverse projects to offer material upside for the shares which trade today at 7.55p, valuing the business at £177 million. 2013 will be interesting.

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3051 days ago

Guest post Sam Bottell: Kentz - IMS Demonstrates Earnings Visibility and balance sheet strength: Neither fully discounted

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

As it happens I agree with his conclusion.

Kentz Corporation (KENZ) is a global engineering specialist solution services company providing full engineering, procurement and construction services (EPC) to mainly the energy and resources sector. The company’s niche and positioning is as a tier-two contractor and bids for small / medium sized projects where competition is relatively low. Over the years Kentz has become a global player and currently provides solutions with 14,000 employees operating in 29 countries worldwide. The relative strength of the oil price and Kentz’s global capacity in mining means that this company has delivered consistent sales, profits, cashflow and dividend growth since its IPO. A trading statement on November 12 indicated that nothing is changing in this respect. I would argue that a 381p share price (from a year high 490p) fails to discount this. Here is why.

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3052 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kenmare Own Goals compounded in an unloved sector but is the sell off overdone?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

As it happens I agree with his conclusion.

Like most mid cap mining stocks, Kenmare Resources (KMR) had a fairly rough 2012, its share price diving from 60p in the spring to 35p today. In part this is a cork on the wave effect: if a sector is thoroughly unloved as mining stocks were last year then it is hard to buck that trend. However, Kenmare was also hit by falling prices of the titanium it produces in Mozambique and by a continuation of its habit of scoring own goals. 2013 should see the start of a mammoth ramp up in output and cashflow generated and so is now a good time to back this Ireland based company?

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3055 days ago

Guest post from Sam Bottell: Afferro Mining – Buy for the bid or on fundamentals?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

AIM listed Afferro Mining (AFF) is a West African focused iron ore play. With a solid net cash position and an attractive portfolio of assets one can make a solid case for buying the shares on fundamentals, a case strengthened by the recent recovery in the iron price. But there is also a corporate angle with the company admitting just before Christmas that it can “confirm that it is in discussions with multiple parties which may or may not lead to a strategic investment or a proposal to acquire the outstanding shares of the Company.” Not surprisingly the shares have rallied from a year low of around 40p in the second quarter to a share price today of 101.25p today, valuing it at £106 million. But arguably there is more to come.

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3058 days ago

Central Asia Metals: Delivery in 2012, cash return in 2013

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

On AIM among mining stocks the norm appears to be for projects to be delayed, to run over budget and for companies to be constantly issuing shares to raise cash to keep going as a result. Central Asia Metals (CAML) bucks all three trends. Perhaps that is why whilst most mining shares fell sharply during 2012, Central’s share price of 122.5p is just 1p below the year high and values the company at £105.7 million. The company is now engaged in a material return of capital to investors via buybacks and dividends that will more than underpin the current level – indeed I suspect that this stock could trade at 150p within a year and here is why.

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3059 days ago

Gemfields (GEM) – A 2013 diamond?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell at minesite/oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

AIM listed Gemfields (GEM) has avoided the bloodbath affecting most junior miners during 2012. At a share price of 35.5p the company is valued at £114 million and is only 4.5p off its 12 month high. But could 2013 be the year when the shares really begin to sparkle?

The company’s principal asset is a 75% stake in the Kegem project in Zambia – this is the world’s largest emerald mine. In addition the company also has a 50% interest in the Kariba amethyst mine which is also in Zambia. These two assets leave the company as a solid cash generator.

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3061 days ago

Gulf Keystone (GKP) – 2013 the pivotal year? Time to buy?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell at minesite/oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece from TradingResearch Point…

Gulf Keystone (GKP) the AIM listed Kurdistan-centred oil exploration and production company has had an eventful year which has seen the share price tumble from highs of 425.2p to its current price of 167.5p. Day in day out it is the most discussed stock on the Bulletin Boards with its supporters convinced that the share fall is an opportunity. For them 2013 will be a pivotal year in Gulf’s development programme, the twelve months when their faith is rewarded. But will it be?

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