Personal and undiluted views
UKInvestor Show

1862 days ago

Tom Winnifrith BearCast 8 April - Waz v Metal Tiger as Oakley & I tidy up

If a I yawn a bit it is because the Mrs was away last night so I stayed up late watching a great Dan Snow programme about the vikings. I digress. I start with Gary Newman and Waz Shakoor vs Metal Tiger (MTR). Then it is on to Pathfinder Minerals (PFP), Greatland Gold (GGP) - it looks wrong to me - Bonmarche (BON), Edenville (EDL), Milamber Ventures (MLVP), Strat Aero (AERO) and once again Ascent (AST) where management are now reaping what they sowed. Oh, and we have some exciting news on www.UKInvestorshow - Ho, ho, ho. The Oakley headline is explained in the podcast.

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2241 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 26 March

I have a terrible migrane and am off to bed. Before I go a podcast covering the China Norfolks, Sierra Rutile, asylum madness and Teathers Financial and in detail Corero Networks. Oh, there is also a joke from Lucian Miers.

If you like this knockabout style you will love my two ( or maybe three) presentations at UK InvestorShow on April 18 in Westminster. As of now fewer than 100 of the 2000 tickets are still available. Book yours now HERE

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2623 days ago

Weekly video postcard #57 – Reflections on the “Greek” Graves of my Great Uncles Edition

Rather a personal as opposed to a political postcard this week. For the next four weeks my life is almost 100% centred on preparing for the UK Investor Show on April 5. If you have NOT booked a ticket yet, shame on you – book now HERE.

But what to do afterwards? I shall be absolutely exhausted. I am already but slog on. And so it will be off to Greece with my rucksack for a month’s walking. Partly with the Mrs, partly alone as I search out the graves of two Great Uncles, the only brothers of my father’s mother who are meant to be buried there. I recount their deaths (1931 and WW2) and their stories in this postcard.

My weekly financial video postcard “Why do I do it?” sees me discussing why I “go after” companies on the AIM Cesspit. It can be viewed HERE

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2715 days ago

There are still more than 300 £12 tickets to the UK Investor Show to give away for free thanks to Accendo

Thanks to Accendo markets we have five hundred £12 tickets to the UK’s top investor show, UK Investor Show to give away for free.  Well we had 500. There are now just over 300. The event takes place on April 5 in Westminster London and the free tickets will be allocated strictly on a first come first served basis. 

We already have 60 growth companies booked in to attend and present at the show and another 30 will be signed up by April 5th. And we also have more than 30 main stage speakers confirmed including Terry Smith, Nigel Wray, Lucian Miers, Clem Chambers, Amanda Van Dyke, Dominic Frisby, David Lenigas, Roger Lawson, Matt Earl, Tom Winnifrith, Steve Moore and many more.

This is without doubt the UK’s top investor show. Full details can be found at www.UKInvestorShow.com and you can buy tickets on that site. 

Or you can, thanks to Accendo get a ticket for free but hurry as this offer is limited to just 500 tickets.

To get your free ticket click HERE.

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2730 days ago

Learn how to spreadbet for free with star FT columnist Dominic Picarda

My good friend Dominic Picarda may look like a debt collector with menace but as a columnist on the Chronic Investor and Financial Times he has a great reputation as an expert on technical analysis and spreadbetting. He is of course a speaker at the UK Investor Show on April 5 and we have THREE books by Dominic to give away free to Shareprophets Readers.

The first is an Dominic’s top 5 trades for Q4 2013 ( ie now). The second is Dominic’s Beginners Guide to SpreadBetting. And the third is Dominic’s Guide to Pair Trades. 

You can order one or all of them for free HERE.

We have just 500 booklets to send out. So if you want one ( two or three) order NOW HERE

Tom Winnifrith

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2739 days ago

The Joys of the 4.47 AM from Bristol

The Mrs hates me catching this train as she is woken up by my alarm clock at 4 am. I understand her point and so only take it now and again as a treat, when I have to be in London early. But it is a treat. It is the last train before 9.30 which does not cost a second mortgage to catch, but it is the best train of the day.

The cab speeds through a deserted City in minutes. There is no traffic, no jams which serve simply to annoy. A quick fag and I climb aboard a deserted train. There is just one other person in coach D 

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2746 days ago

Three great books by Dominic Picarda on offer for free with Shareprophets

My good friend Dominic Picarda may look like a debt collector with menace but as a columnist on the Chronic Investor and Financial Times he has a great reputation as an expert on technical analysis and spreadbetting. He is of course a speaker at the UK Investor Show on April 5 and we have THREE books by Dominic to give away free to Shareprophets Readers.

The first is an Dominic’s top 5 trades for Q4 2013 ( ie now). The second is Dominic’s Beginners Guide to SpreadBetting. And the third is Dominic’s Guide to Pair Trades. 

You can order one or all of them for free HERE.

But hurry. We have just 500 booklets to send out. So if you want one ( two or three) order NOW HERE

Tom Winnifrith

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2757 days ago

Dominic Picarda joins speaker line up Falanx, Amara, ETX and Viscount Minerals book stands - just 15 Golden Tickets left

There are now just 15 golden tickets left for the UK Investor Show on April 5th while normal tickets are selling fast - why?

The speaker line-up gets stronger by the week. This week FT & IC Columnist Dominic Picarda became our latest big name recruit. Dominic will chair one of the main stage sessions and will do a 100 person breakout room session on how to use ETFs to create a growth portfolio.

There are a maximum of 100 seats for any breakout session. Gold ticket holders get to reserve a seat at whatever main stage or breakout session they wish in advance.

We are also delighted to announce that spreadbetting form ETX has become a main sponsor of the show while three more PLCs - Amara Mining, Falanx and Viscount Minerals (a new silver play from legendary Kaare Foy) have come on board to man a stand and give 20 minute breakout presentations on the day.

Book NOW to ensure you get your spot

All of that goes to show once again...

There is only one investor show worth attending if you want to hear an array of big name speakers in sparky debate and meet dozens of growth companies. And this year the UK Investor Show has a new venue, the Queen Elizabeth centre in central London.

The date for your diary is 5 April 2014

More than 25 big name speakers are already signed up to appear including Britain’s Buffett Nigel Wray, legendary Terry Smith bear raiders Matt Earl and Lucian Miers, gold gurus Amanda Van Dyke and Dominic FrisbyEd Croft of Stockopedia, Dominic Picarda, John Walsh, Alpesh Patel, Richard Poulden, David Lenigas,  controversial mining analyst turned entrepreneur Matt Sutcliffe, infamous bloggers Brokerman Daniel and Doc HolidayClem ChambersTom Winnifrith and Roger Lawson

The full list of speakers grows by the day and can be found here

As ever Britain’s most interesting small cap companies will also not only be manning stands but also each giving a 20 minute presentation. Six months ahead of the show more than FIFTY companies are already booked into attend at CEO level including Alliance PharmaStanley GibbonsEMEDLeyshon Resources1Spatial, Amara Mining, Falanx, Leni Gas & Oil, Nostra Terra and many more.

You can find the list of those companies already booked in to attend here.

This year there are two classes of tickets. 

An entrance pass costs £10 + VAT and gives entrance to the show and to all speaker sessions (subject to seating availability).

A Golden ticket costs £50 + VAT. There were just 75 available. A golden ticket gives you the right to reserve a front seat at any one of the 80 sessions running throughout the day. It also entitles you to come along to a champagne reception with a number of the keynote speakers and presenting CEOs afterwards with transport to the venue arranged.

THERE ARE NOW JUST 15 GOLDEN TICKETS LEFT!

Book NOW to ensure you get your spot

As each day goes by we will add more speakers and companies to those attending. We do not just claim to have companies attending unlike some also ran events, we name them. To keep updated on out growing roster of star speakers and growth companies presenting follow us on Twitter @ukinvestorshow

Book NOW to ensure you get your spot

On behalf of ADVFN and myself, the joint organisers of this show we look forward to seeing you on 5 April 2014 in Westminster.

Best wishes

 

Tom Winnifrith

PS Remember there are now just 15 golden tickets left and that standard tickets are also selling fast. Some show give away tickets because they offer no value. UKInvestor is different. To book your ticket now go HERE

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2768 days ago

Evil Knievil expects Dialight shares to halve and I agree. Here's why

Bear raider Evil Knievil and I have had a long chat this morning about Dialight (DIA) of which he is short. The core analysis here comes from Matt Earl – the nemesis of Avanti (AVN) who has got to be the UK’s top forensic analyst and has just signed up to the UK Investor show as a star speaker. 

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2783 days ago

Monday 30th: Today’s the last day to book your discounted early bird ticket to the show of the year – UK Investor Show

It’s the last day to get a 50% discounted early bird ticket to the investment show of the year – UK Investor 2014 on April 5.

We know that other investor shows are free. They have weak speakers and the sort of companies that pitch up to present are of little interest to me or you. On April 5 in  the UK’s top location, the QE2 Centre Westminster the UK Investor Show will boast an all start line up of speakers and already 39 of the 80 companies set to man a booth but also present are booked in.

This is a show for serious investors and we do not want time wasters attending and clogging up the aisles: so we make a small charge to attend.

You can buy an ordinary ticket (normally £12 inc VAT) or a golden ticket (£60 – and which brings a range of perks including a place at a champagne reception afterwards with key speakers and CEOs) at half price until Monday midnight (TONIGHT) ONLY at the www.UKInvestorshow.com website.

So who is speaking?  We have a value investor panel led by Ed Croft of Stockopedia, Nick Leslau and Nigel Wray plus Paul Kavanagh of Killick with 1 more tbc. There is a gold panel led by Dominic Frisby and Amanda Van Dyke with Richard Poulden and analyst turned CEO Matt Suttcliffe with 2 tbc.  There is a bears panel lead by Evil and Lucian Miers with 2 tbc.

Terry Smith ( a real hero of mine) will do a stand alone talk on how to make money from Emerging Markets. 

There is a bloggers panel led by myself with Brokerman Dan, Doc Holiday and 2 tbc. There is an oil lunch panel (with free sandwich) with David Lenigas, Matt Lofgren, Paul Atherley and 2 tbc. Mark Slater will be flying solo. There is a traders panel led by Clem Chambers and Alpesh Patel with 2 tbc. And there is one more solo speaker of whom more next week.

You have just a few hours to book your early bird half price ticket and can do so HERE

There are also big name breakout sessions for 100 people where the 75 gold ticket holders get priority booking. These include Amanda Van Dyke, Roger Lawson of Share Soc and Evil Knievil ( with me)

You have just a few hours to book your early bird half price ticket and can do so HERE

And then there are the companies each of whom will man a stand but also do a 20 minute presentation in a smaller side room. The list of those attending grows by the day and can be found at www.UKInvestorshow.com but already includes: EMED, EnablesIT, Stanley Gibbons, Inspirit, Nostra Terra, ECR Minerals, Conroy Gold, 1Spatial, Leni Gas & Oil, Alexander Mining, Red Rock Resources, AfriAg, Regency Mines, @UK, ADVFN, Alliance Pharma, Ariana Resources, GLI Finance, Asher Resources, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Kibo Mining, Eurasia Mining, Leyshon Resources, Noricum Gold, Ortac Resources, Symphony Environmental, Killick & Co, Mechan Controls, Minoan, Sound Oil and of course Woodlarks. More companies will be announced every week…

Hundreds of serious investors have booked already. I hope that you will join them and to see you on April 5th in Westminster but remember to get a 50% discount on your ticket you need to book now on a secure online form HERE.

Best wishes

 

Tom Winnifrith

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2799 days ago

Looking back a year tomorrow as Malcolm Stacey joins us from Sharecrazy

A year ago tomorrow t1ps.com, the website I set up in my bedroom published a defamatory and malicious piece about me in the name of Steve Moore, James Faulkner and Richard Gill. Our connection was utterly severed and I found myself working alone in the world running just this, my personal blog. Boy has the world changed.

As you may know Steve Moore was on holiday when that piece appeared and when he discovered what had gone out in his name and without his consent or knowledge, he resigned on principle. Then there were two of us. Soon after Darren Atwater took a pay cut, quit and moved to join us. Then Lucian Miers followed suit. Then Robert Sutherland Smith. Paul Nicholson, from the Isle of Man has hooked up with us since. And tomorrow, a year to a day since that infamous episode Malcolm Stacey – the founder of ShareCrazy.com joins our merry band with his debut piece on www.shareprophets.com

 

In the space of one year

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2824 days ago

Sefton Victory celebrations underway & the 666 shirt goes on sabattical

You should always end on a high. And I am on a high right now. Last night I exposed Jim Ellerton for the fraud and liar he is. The Nomad to Sefton (Allenby) has told me by email that if my initial allegations re the Dillabaugh case were proven either Allenby or Ellerton had to go. If it is the former the shares are suspended and won’t come back. If it is the latter the sole witness for Sefton in its libel trial against me will have resigned in disgrace. So I have won. I gather that the Sefton board is meeting this afternoon so, one way or another, the AIM career of Hawaii Jim is almost over.

I have already popped over to the offices of uber expensive bully boy City lawyers Pinsent Masons , champagne in hand, to record two short videos and when they go live that will be it from me.

Publicly I have put a brave face on this battle and on the Sefton dirty tracks campaign. But it has been a strain.  I fear that there is not a cat in hell’s chance of me getting my costs back. Would I want to do this again or would I rather spend time with the bird, take up fishing again or do a bit of what I really want to do (goat farming)?

My priorities going forward are the restaurant, the UKInvestor Show, my partner (the deluded lefty) and my family, notably my step mother and ageing father - not necessarily in that order. As such the 666 shirt of investigative financial journalism united is (temporarily) retired. After today I shall confine my public comments on shares to my premium Nifty Fifty website. If you want to know my thoughts on shares pop along to Real Man Pizza and buy me a salad or subscribe to the Nifty Fifty

Shareprophets has 20 writers including younger investigative stars such as John Crawford and Ben Turney who I shall advise, if asked, but for now that is it from me on shares. The younger guys will take the battle against the AIM bad guys forward.  I have a book to write (on Sefton), articles to write for this website on West Ham, Greece and other really important matters and a life to lead.

Thanks for your support since this battle commenced. My 36 hour drinkathon now continues and anyone who fancies coming along to Real Man tonight after 6 is more than welcome.

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2897 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: SSE Results - Buy now or later?

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at Shareprophets.com  on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at SSE. RSS writes:

Events have fully justified my earlier bullish judgement elsewhere that SSE (SSE) shares were good value on a then estimated 6% prospective dividend yield. The share price rose with grace and charm to a recent May time peak of 1690p, from whence profit taking brought them down to a share price of 1627p last seen having done better that the FTSE 100 Index over six months in a bull market where risk stocks have been rising.

This ‘safe’ utility,

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2903 days ago

One Year Old – today: A look back

It was a year ago today that the first article appeared on this blog. Most blogs fold after a period of months but I am still here. And to celebrate a glass of bubbly for breakfast! The toast “to you dear readers for continuing to read this site”

A year ago my life looked unimaginably bleak. At a personal and health level it was a mess and I was days away from leaving Rivington Street and t1ps the company I founded.  To the victors the spoils and so it was repeatedly asserted that all t1ps’ problems were of my making and that new management was turning it around. Yes I have read the interim results released at 6PM on Friday. Hmmmm. You might say that but I could not possibly comment.

That however was a former life for me. My line in the sand was drawn in September.  By then I knew who my friends were. To folks such as Richard Poulden, Abbe Aronson, Darren Atwater, Steve Moore, Clem Chambers, Monisha Varadan, Chris Potts, Amanda Van Dyke, Lucian Miers, Chris Booker and Zak Mir I am forever in your debt. To you I say “cheers” – another toast.

I chatted yesterday to most of the above and life has changed pretty dramatically. At the Real Man restaurant we were losing £5,000 a month when I took it on officially in September. There is now just one of the staff at that time still working here and I have hired and fired aggressively and made a stack of other changes. Having just enjoyed our busiest Saturday in memory we are now happily making a profit, our customers like us and we serve far better food. That was achievement one. I guess that “new management line” is true sometimes. Miaow.

Achievement two was getting the UK Investor Show organised in just a few months and it went well. Now with my friends at ADVFN we are well on track to deliver an even better show on April 5 next year. And I now rather suspect we will be the only show featuring master investors happening next spring. Miaow.

But perhaps the biggest win has been in writing. It is what I do best (although I can knock out a fantastic Risotto con salsicce e funghi these days as well). The launch of the www.shareprophets.com site has exceeded expectations. After 50 days it has half as many registered users as we managed to attract in one year at UK-Analyst. More join every day. And gratifyingly more and more writers seem to want to join the team and write for us. Another two will debut this week.  Meanwhile other websites…no that is enough miaows.

But www.Tomwinnifrith.com is my real love. It started as therapy but being able to write exactly what I thought without some corporate hissy fit ensuing soon became an addictive drug. The fact that I use the odd naughty word or talk about birds does not appeal to everyone – notably Google and PR prude Kay Larsen of College Group – as you may remember here and here.

But it is me. I do use naughty words. I do find myself drifting into the vernacular of my favourite TV show (The Sweeney) now and again. And I do have strong views on Israel, welfare scroungers, the EU, global warming and civil liberties. Why hold back? I had been gagged for so long that the release was joyful and still is.

But there was also a release in that I ceased to by a City insider and became an outsider. As such there was no need to kiss arse – anyone and everyone was fair game. The past year has shown me that not only is it fun to constantly expose and poke fun and to say what you want but that I can earn a reasonable living doing that and looking after Real Man Pizza. There is no need to hold back. While I might have been tentaitive at first I am now in 5th gear and will not be slowing down or getting softer in my approach.

And so looking back I reflect on those who have brought inspiration and pleasure to me:

1. The visit to Butrint (photo article)
2. Damian Conboy of Alecto hooking up with the Playboy PR girl
3. Kay Larsen PR prude at College Hill
4. Sefton Resources & Jim Ellerton – thanks Jim you have made my year ( see you in court Bitchez)
5. Taking a contrary view on the Olympics
6. Vroula – the fascist Greek athlete and defending her right to free speech
7. The visit to the Berlin Jewish Museum
8. Standing by St Paul’s for Lady Thatcher’s funeral
9. The start of the AIM Cesspit campaign
10.Going on stage with Nigel Wray and Nick Leslau at UKInvestor show – feeling I was with friends.
11. Being complimented by the Goddess
12. The Guardian and deluded lefties everywhere
13. The Baker of Zitsa
14. Albania - National Leave your Gun at home day
15. Financial PR firms & the AIM Cesspit - another fight picked

I am sure that I have missed out a few highlights.

At a personal level, many of you met my partner at UK Investor Show. She may be an utterly deluded lefty. No okay she is an utterly deluded lefty but she has been a rock at all times. She even now knows who Joe Cole is and that Mark Noble’s veins are claret and blue. What more could a man ask for?

Thank you all for reading this website over the past year. Year two starts on Monday. What will it bring?

Best wishes

 

Tom Winnifrith

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2922 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith on Q1 Results from Legal & General

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over  at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Legal & General. RSS writes:

The Legal & General (LGEN) share price is at the top of its game and the  top of its trend pathway. It has risen 55% over a year in which the FTSE100 rose  by only 16%. That gives scope for the share price to fall back again on profit  taking. In Q1 the wind was decidedly in the Company’s favour. And the quarterly  reports of insurance companies like winds are variable too. If you wish to by  L&G shares for dividend yield, I dare to suggest that you may get a higher  one in due course at a lower price.

It is the maturity of its more traditional UK markets as well as the  catatonic state of the UK economy that is propelling the Legal & General to  search for expansion in the business of fund management services both in the UK  and internationally. Legal & General’s first quarter results were strikingly  indicative of that

 

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2923 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith Admiral Group: A Yield of 6.9% enough?

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over  at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Admiral. RSS writes:

Despite the above average gambling aspect of its unusual business model and  payout policy, my instinct is to add the shares to my ‘shares for buying list’,  on the limited ground (not too hasty I trust) of first quarter trading; the  explicit confirmation of continuing financial strength and an estimated ‘super  normal’ prospective dividend yield of  6.9%.     

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2923 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith on BAT Industries- a last gasp or a final draw

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over  at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BAT Industries. RSS writes:

My last review of BAT Industries was a bullish one, having examined  the management strategy of this large and important international business  geared as it is, by common consent (entirely reasonably so) to a long term,  irresistible decline demand for its products. I noted at the time that analysts  estimated on a consensus view that sales revenue would grow by 20% over the two  year 2013 and 2014 to an annual sales figure of £16.7 billion by the end of next  year along with a 20% increase in earnings and dividends to 248p and 162p  respectively estimated for the year to 31 December 2014. 

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2936 days ago

Nigel Wray, Nick Leslau and me - video from UKInvestor Show

This was in many ways my favourite part of UKInvestor Show 2013. Together with two good friends we chatted 100% without rehearsal on UK residential and commercial property, the death of the High street, the UK economy, Alliance Pharma, Domino's Pizza, share prices, Margaret Thatcher and much more. Leslau and Wray are always inspirational for me. And I had a ball.

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2938 days ago

Share tip: Buy Entertainment One

I tipped this stock at 175p to buy the other day on my Nifty Fifty premium web site but now at 184p in the middle it is still cheap – target price at least 250p. My pal Mark Slater owns this one in his funds and he explained the merits of in his presentation at the UK Investor Show on April 13th. In case you missed his talk, the slides and a video of it can be found here. The stock in question is Entertainment One (ETO)

The shares traded at more than 200p into 2012

 

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2941 days ago

Nigel Farage of UKIP - classic speech from April 13 now live on video

The video of Nigel Farage's classic speech at the UK Investor Show is now live. The leader of UKIP was on cracking form. Nigel gives speeches all across the UK but if you ever wanted to hear him you now no longer need to leave the comfort of your own living room. The speech in full is captured on video and is a cracker.

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2941 days ago

Make a diary date for the UK's only serious investor show - April 5

Okay you have missed the only show worth attending for this year. Shucks. But following the amazing success of UK Investor Show 2013 we have now set a date for UK Investor Show 2014. So put it in your diary now: April 5th2014.

And in response to the success of the first show we have secured a larger venue in Central London for the 2014 event. More details to follow.

If you did miss the 2013 event videos of the main speakers and of 12 PLC presentations were recorded and are now starting to go live.
You can watch gold guru Dominic Frisby & access his slides HERE

You can watch small cap legend Mark Slater and access his slides HERE

And you can watch infamous bear raider Lucian Miers HERE

Later today UKIP leader Nigel Farage MEP goes live on ADVFN with short seller Evil Knievil to follow shortly afterwards

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2956 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore on Halfords

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com from the day he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you his analysis of Halfords. Steve writes...

Leading UK automotive and leisure products and services retailer Halfords (HFD) has today updated on the close of its financial year ended 29th March 2013. Shares in this FTSE 250 constituent have recovered from 189p they hit in July of last year to a current 330p and the following updates on whether value looks to remain…

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2957 days ago

Change of Speaker Line Up at UKINvestor Show this Saturday – in honour of Margaret Thatcher

We are lucky to have a speaker already lined up at the UK’s top investor show which takes place this Saturday April 13th who knew Margaret Thatcher well. In fact we have several but in light of the sad demise of Britain’s greatest Prime Minister we have moved Christopher Booker, the founder of Private Eye and celebrated Sunday Telegraph columnist to the main stage during the afternoon to talk about “The Margaret Thatcher I knew – nearly always right in the end.”

I chatted to Booker – who is my uncle and godfather - this morning and our reflections on the Iron Lady covered her Euro scepticism, the treachery of her colleagues, the lie that she supported apartheid, her conversion from a supporter of global warming theory to becoming an ardent global warming sceptic and many other issues. Booker will cover how and why her views changed on these and other topics and how our leaders today might perhaps reflect on this.

The revised speaker line-up on our main stage is now:

10 AM Opening Remarks
10.10-11 AM Nigel Wray & Nick Leslau
11.00 – 11.45 AM – Tom Winnifrith with bear raider Lucian Miers
11.45-11.55 – the short debate: Is AIM doomed Tom Winnifrith vs Richard Poulden
11.55-12.40 – Comedian and gold guru Dominic Frisbey on gold
1.40-2.35 PM – The Traders session: Clem Chambers, Alpesh Patel, Zak Mir, Evil Knievil and John Piper
2.35-3.15 – Christopher Booker
3.45 – 4.30 Mark Slater
4.30-5.15 Nigel Farage MEP ( who will I am sure also mention the Iron Lady)

We still have a handful of tickets going for the show due to late cancellations. If you wish to attend email your postal address with postcode and how many tickets you require to [email protected] and the tickets will be despatched first class at once.

I look forward to seeing you on Saturday 13th April at Excel.

Tom Winnifrith

 

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2958 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BP

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BP although comic style makes me wonder what this child of the sixties has been smoking of late. RSS writes:

America, or at least its coastal region around the Gulf of Mexico – which was unfortunately flooded with crude oil from a BP platform a year or so ago – may be a land of dreams over the rainbow; but they are not necessarily pleasant dreams as BP – like Dorothy and her little do Toto from the “Wizard of Oz” which I watched with my grand-daughter over the weekend – are finding out. It is curious that the tin man in the film is made out of old oil drums and oil cans. But is BP “Dorothy” who eventually gets back to normality, or the “tin man” without a heart who does not?

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2961 days ago

Friday Caption Contest - Shit in the Post Edition

The prize in this week's Caption Contest is a bottle of English "champagne" signed by myself - the catch is that I shall hand it over at the UK Investor Show next Saturday 13th April. If you are not there to collect I shall drink it myself.

The caption required is for this picture - something I received in the post on Thursday.

For what it is worth my entry is:

"The board of Sefton Resources/ College Group PR confuse the birthdays of the two Tom Winnifrith's"

If you can do better please post your entries in the comments section below by the morning of Friday 12th April.

Last week I asked you for captions to this contest in the Kay Larsen, College Group PR, pornography and sheep shagging edition. There was no prize to be awarded anyway it was just a chance to get a few more google search terms in there for Kay.

And so the winner, according to the independent judge is the Evil son of deluded lefties with:

Sheep One: I just want to talk about pornography
The ram in the middle: I just want to shag some sheep
Sheep Two: I only read articles about Advanced Computer Software which Kay Larsen says that I should

Good luck & I look forward to presenting a prize on April 13th

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2961 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith on supermarkets group William Morrison

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at William Morrison, the supermarkets group. RSS writes:

I can remember when William Morrison (MRW) was once the most fashionable share in the food retailing sector. Not only fashionable, but exotic too; an emergent hitherto unknown northern kind of retailer, that was culturally different; more direct and tougher than softer southern food retailers like the then Tesco and Sainsbury. In stock market terms it was a bit like one of the heroes from one of those gritty fifties novels set in the north like ‘This Sporting Life’ and the ‘Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner’. I seem to recall that Morrison’s brought the concept of ‘bogof’ to our shopping reality. William Morrison was at the no nonsense, cutting edge; retailing with a Yorkshire accent. It was highly rated as I recall, because it was a growth business as it pushed into the deep south of gentrified food and grocery demand.

But things have changed. Morrison is out of fashion in the food retailing sector now

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2969 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Antofagasta still a sell

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share sell tip on FTSE 100 listed copper giant  Antofagasta. Sam writes...

I have been bearish about Antofagasta (ANTO) twice on these pages, twice suggesting that the shares were overvalued.  The publication of calendar 2012 results on March 12th improves the story a little but not dramatically.  The shares have fallen sharply since my original bear calls and as such some might speculate that the copper giant offers bottom fishing appeal at £10.29, valuing the FTSE 100 mining giant at £10.144 billion.

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2970 days ago

UKInvestor Show – Prizes, People and Updates – For April 13

The UK’s only serious one day investor conference is now less than three weeks away. Details can be found at www.UKinvestorshow.combut the final touches are now being put in place for what seems set to be an explosive day. If you have registered for a ticket it will by now have landed with you. A bit more on tickets later but first to the prizes on offer for those attending.

The show is at Excel and doors will open at 9 am sharp. The day ends at 5 PM, In between you can mingle among the dozens of stands manned by PLC CEOs chatting to them about whatever you wish. A full (reasonably up to date) list is on our website www.UKInvestorshow.com or you can listen to a series of talks by investment legends, folks who really are Master Investors, such as Mark Slater, Lucian Miers, Dominic Frisby, Nick Leslau and Nigel Wray.

Prizes?

The first talk starts just after 10 am and is a three way session with property legend and secret millionaire Nick Leslau and his long time business partner Britain’s Buffett Nigel Wray with me in the middle. I get to choose most of the questions but… five of the questions come from the audience and win prizes.

We will send out an email shortly to all ticket holders with a short form on it asking for your questions for Nick & Nigel. Simply print that off fill in your question and when you arrive at the Excel centre drop the question off at the Real Man stand before 10 AM.

If your question is picked a bottle of premium English wine from the Chapel Down vineyard is yours.

More prizes? How fat is Evil Knievil?

Well a second anyway. On that form we will also ask you to guess the combined weight in stone and pounds of Evil Knievil, myself and Zak Mir. I give you a hint: - Evil is almost half of the total on his own. Entries in Kilogrammes will automatically be disqualified. Imperial only.

And there are more prizes to come. We will send out details with the next email.

For full details on the all-star speaker line-up and on the companies presenting go to www.UKinvestorshow.com

One last favour? All tickets were sent to those who booked last week. If you have not received a ticket to the show please email [email protected] ASAP and we will send one before Easter.
And if you have got a ticket but cannot use it please let us know. We have now been able to allocate tickets to most folks on the waiting list but there are still a few waiting. If you are not using your ticket let us know so that we can give it to someone who wants to attend.

If you wish to attend and have not booked we cannot guarantee that there will be a place on April 13th for you but you can apply to join the waiting list at www.UKinvestorshow.com

Tom Winnifrith
PS Off for a run now to see if I can lose a couple of pounds and push Evil’s share of the combined weight to more than 50%

 

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2971 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on KCOM Group

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com from the day he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you his analysis of KCOM. Steve writes...

KCOM Group (KCOM), the Hull-based, UK focused communications company has, like many of the current FTSE 250 constituents, enjoyed very strong share price growth over the last four or so years. However, with the shares having reached more than 85p in September 2012, they fell back to sub 70p in November but have since recovered to trade at a current 82p. The following reviews the value proposition post a trading update from the company last month

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2971 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - is AstraZeneca a buy?

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at AstraZeneca. RSS writes:

The new CEO of Astra Zeneca Pascal Soirot (which scans with Hercule Poirot very nicely) made his promised presentation on the strategy for returning the company to profits and earnings growth on Thursday 21 March. He appeared to do that with some degree of credibility because the share price was marked up the next day. I am also delighted to see that along with the presentation on how he plans to get profits growing he had a comment on dividends. Basically, the company says that ordinary dividends will not be an automatic function of an individual year’s earnings but rather will reflect expectations about growth. I think it is worth a direct quote

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2972 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Buy United Utilities for Yield

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at United Utilities. RSS writes:

The water company United Utilities (UU.) whose equity has a £4.8 billion market capitalization has caught my attention for three reasons. First, at 709p, it has a useful historic dividend yield of 4.6%; second the share price has come close to its trend support line; third the company has just produced a well-received trading statement which put the shares better on the day.      

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2976 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Bae set for shock dividend cut?

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Bae Systems. RSS writes:

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2977 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith Close Bros: something in the City with yield

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Close Brothers. RSS writes:

As a result of a long and recent history and despite the fact that London is a uniquely large banking and financial services centre, the investor has not got many conventional banking equity investment targets at the moment. Fortunately, that does include two banks HSBC and Standard and Chartered Bank, which remained sufficiently true to their banking inheritances to come through the great banking collapse without government assistance to provide UK investors with a direct means of investing in the growing Asian Pacific economies.

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2978 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Ophir Energy

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Ophir Energy. Sam writes...

Ophir (OPHR) Energy is a rare beast among FTSE 250 oil stocks in that it has almost no production and will not have for several years.  It is like those junior E&P stocks so beloved of Bulletin Board followers but, at 458p, it is capitalised at £1.927 billion.  Having just raised c£525 million net of expenses it is fully funded to carry out a widespread exploration programme until mid-2014 across a number of territories but can you really justify the current price tag?

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2979 days ago

Guest share tip: Robert Sutherland Smith - buy Centrica for yield

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Centrica. RSS writes:

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2980 days ago

Guest Share tip: Robert Sutherland Smith buy J Sainsbury for yield

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at J Sainsbury. RSS writes:

In the chemical filing cabinet that serves that as my memory, I had evidently misfiled Sainsbury under the heading ‘no dividend interest’; presumably nudged by another memorized observation that Sainsbury has been handsomely outperforming William Morrison and Tesco – which I have also recently reviewed as a dividend paying candidate. The truth is of course that Sainsbury is notably well qualified to serve as an above average dividend yielder. So I have looked at the situation to see what Lord Sainsbury’s store has to offer by way of useful dividend income.

The Lord Sainsbury thing is a little joke of mine which I like to share with the bemused staff at my local Sainsbury when I send my personal regards through them to Lord Sainsbury.

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2980 days ago

Weekend Video Postcard Number 32

I think sound and vision nailed once again. I am finally getting the hang of this.  I am meant to be celebrating St Patrick’s Day with some Irish-for-a-day folk which means just mindless drinking. Since they were not Irish yesterday they will not understand why there is nothing to celebrate today. And so I may dodge that for some more writing. Pro tem here is the video postcard for this week

On the Agenda

  1. The end of an era for Irish rugby –see also my sad thoughts on that HERE
  2. The Budget – I do not expect much
  3. The markets
  4. Nigel Wray again - ref Alliance Pharma
  5. Cyprus, the Euro and theft
  6. Leaving the EU
  7. UKInvestor Show on April 13th

Approximate Running time 10 minutes

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2982 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on the yield at Standard Life

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Standard Life.

I willingly confess that I have generally found little difficulty in resisting past temptations to take a keen interest in Standard Life (SL.). Life assurance and annuities, the traditional focus of this two hundred year old company, are not the most exciting or fastest moving business activity in the world. That fact combined with the dry as dust name ‘Standard Life’ has invariably – by which I mean without variation – presented a cocktail of too dull a prospect to greet with of warm enthusiasm.

What life has ever been standard and who would wish it so? A name that is a negation of language and the constipation of linguistic imagination. But one which – putting the other case – fully conveys the attributes essential in a business concerned with the scientific measurement of and accounting for group human mortality in relation to the calculation of premiums and benefits for life assurance and pension annuities. Surely, was there not somebody on the occasion of its christening in some boardroom long ago, who felt an instinctive urge to giggle nervously and ask, “surely, we are not calling it Standard Life, are we? “

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2983 days ago

And they are out…2500 tickets in the post for UKInvestor Show on April 13th

Thanks very much to Colin, Martha and Steve who volunteered to assist Darren and myself as all the tickets for UK Investor Show on April 13th were put into envelopes last night. They were this morning posted and so should land by Saturday to all those who have registered to attend.

The boxes stacked with envelopes are pictured below before heading to Mount Pleasant Post Office

If you have booked a seat and have not received your ticket by early next week please contact [email protected] and we will look into it.

Preparations are now well advanced with speakers and presenting companies (details can be found HERE) for what should be a great day. I shall see you all in just over one month’s time.

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2983 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on the Aviva dividend cut ( still a buy)

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Aviva.

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2984 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on Admiral – is a 7.1% yield too good to be true?

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Admiral.

There is something of the Sound of Music about the Admiral Group (ADM) dividend yield; pleasing but too good to be true? A version of the world not as we realistically understand it! Earnings are to Admiral what heavy curtains were to the singing children’s governess; something she used to the most useful extent by turning curtain drapes into children’s clothes. In Admiral’s case they have turned all – or almost all – of its 2012 earnings into dividends; a policy wholly untypical of most publicly quoted companies. Both choices are idiosyncratic but also, infuriatingly, examples ‘out of the box’ practical utilitarian logic. Just as the chorus of nuns sing “How do you solve a problem like Maria? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down”, so investors might murmur, something similar about the dividend policy of the Admiral Group.

It is decidedly unusual for a company to distribute nearly all its earnings as dividends. Particularly so when its balance sheet reveals that 97% of the shareholder equity of £443 million is made up of retention’s

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2985 days ago

Guest Share tip: Adnan Siddique Long Term Buy APR Energy

Adnan Siddique used to work with me in the Isle of Man, indeed he was also my lodger. He is now preparing to embark on an MBA (silly boy) but is doing the odd article while he waits to start. He will be an introductory speaker at the UK Investor Show and he is a good man and so I am happy to assist in publicising his work. This piece is on a company that I know absolutely nothing about. Adnan writes:

APR Energy (APR) launched onto the stock market with much fanfare in 2011 promising to be another Aggreko Plc. For those of you unfamiliar with the Aggreko story, if you had invested into the company at the start of 2009 you would now have quadrupled your money. Both these companies operate in the utilities space by providing power generating mobile units to governments, other utility companies and large industrial firms. When power demands spike during a particularly harsh winter or if a storm has knocked out infrastructure, APR mobilises its power-fleet from several regional hubs to plug into the local grid. As you can imagine, most clients are in developing countries – 70% in fact.

There are three great reasons to buy APR:

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2985 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on silver play Hochschild - was I wrong?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Hochschild Mining. Sam writes...

It has not been the greatest call of my career.  I rated shares in silver miner Hochschild Mining (HOC) as a buy here at 424.9p less than two months ago.  The shares now stand at 352p and self-evidently there is a bit of egg on my face.  Was my call wrong?  Are the shares even cheaper today?

To be fair to myself one of the attractions of buying this company is that it is the only serious, well managed pure silver producer listed in London.  That still remains the case.  Those of us who are long term silver bulls can buy the stock and as silver increases sharply during the next few years we will inevitably gain.  However we must accept that there will be periods when the silver price retraces during its long term uptrend and Hochschild shares will retrace in line with that.  Day one of those silver price retracements occurred just after I published that buy tip.

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2986 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - is Pearson a buy?

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Pearson.

Pearson’s (PSON) results for calendar 2012 have returned its accounting for the layman to an even greater inscrutability than that which it enjoyed years ago, when it was an extraordinary, almost eclectic collection of activities ranging from publishing to oil; a bit like going back from the renaissance to the dark ages. Investors cannot rely on the statutory accounts because they, in their matter of fact way, give a misleading impression of change. For illumination, the management provides adjusted and underlying figures to chart the changing dynamics of a changing business in a changing world. In that, we are entirely in their hands although they have to satisfy the sniffing, close probing finger jabbing attention of institutional analysts and fund managers.

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2989 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland buy HSBC for yield

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at HSBC.

HSBC (HSBA) performed strongly throughout the great banking collapse of the first decade, of the twenty first century like a good deed in a naughty world by hanging on to much of its custom, practice and culture, when other banks were swapping their dull conservative garb for emperor’s new clothes. Chief amongst the traditions kept by HSBC was a miserly Scottish grip on capital. A lucky break for HSBC shareholders and a lucky break for UK tax payers. In the bankers’ gospel does it says: ‘blessed are they who employ sufficient capital for they shall inherit the earth’. And that is pretty much what we see in these results for the year to 31 December 2012.

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2994 days ago

Dominic Frisbey's Debt Bomb Video again - ref Obama Economics

Given Obama’s determination to bankrupt America ref his recent cuts package it is time to remind you of the great Dominic Frisbey Debt Bomb Video. The same message applies to the UK befire we laugh too much.

Dominic is not only a comedian he is also an expert on gold which is why he is one of the keynote speakers at UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is bound to be entertaining. More details on that event and on the 24 other speakers HERE.

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2998 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Petra Diamonds

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Petra Diamonds. Sam writes…

Shares in Petra Diamonds (PDL) have risen since the publication of results for the six months to December 31st on 25th February. Supporters point to upbeat comments about the future by CEO Johan Dippenaar and to the fact that fairly “ordinary “ numbers were well flagged in an end January trading statement. “Look to the future” we are told but at 118p the company is capitalised at £602 million and is the future that sparkling? .

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2998 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Imperial Tobacco: An Outstanding Dividend Buy

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Imperial Tobacco.

As an arithmetically and financially attractive income share, Imperial Toboacco (IMT) or “Imps” looks to be an outstanding buy at 2344p. Here is why. There are in fact two reasons – Imps is the object of two very distinct investing perspectives.

The most recent, is that of speculative interest on press stories about Imperial (as in old, a long vanished British Empire Singapore) Tobacco being acquired by a Japanese (as in the land of the rising sun) tobacco company. For that, investors want the lowest dividend yield to exit on. The second traditional investment interest in Imperial Tobacco has focused on its high dividend yield and its ability to grow dividends.

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3000 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith Buy Vodafone for a 5.9% yield

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Vodafone.

Vodafone (VOD) is at the cutting edge of the application of digital information technology which it supplies to a world of clamouring, fastidious consumer demand. The mobile phone is taking and increasing share of Internet communications business including data transmission, the latest commercial opportunity and phone company objective, from PC’s laptops and tablets. It is transformational; exciting stuff socially and economically.

By the logic of the scale of its worldwide operations it is a utility which has to compete not only on investment and innovation but also on price. Each year it needs to square the commercial circle of keeping a large number of people happy: its customers; regulators; governments and of course its investors. Doing all of those things simultaneously requires enterprising, athletic management. Vodafone shares have traveled in a short period of time, from being a highly rated company without much in the way of profits, to becoming a lowly rated share with a modest price to earnings ratio and a high historic (for the year to 31 March 2012) annual dividend yield of 5.9%; considerably higher than that currently offered by tobacco company equity – for many years the staple of high dividend payouts.

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3000 days ago

Guest Share tip: Sam Bottell buy Heritage Oil & Gas

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip on Heritage Oil & Gas which I am minded to say is correct in its conclusion. Sam writes…

The founder of FTSE 250 Listed Heritage Oil (HOIL) is a colourful gent but the way that he has grown Heritage from scratch is exemplary. The recent final disposal of the company’s last stake in its Kurdish assets meant that since its inception this company has now realised $2 billion from disposals since its inception and that cash has been reinvested to create an attractive asset base which is not recognised in the current share price. In a sector with few quality players this is a stand out buy.

The company now sits on free cash of c$172 million. It has another $405 million set aside should it lose a tax dispute case in Uganda and it says that its legal opinion is that it will win. Either way it is not short of cash. The company has some producing assets in Russia and exploration potential in Libya, Malta and Tanzania. This has potential but is not the key value driver. That is block OML 30 in Nigeria where the company has an effective 31.5% stake; this aea is a vast block where production is already substantial but will grow at an incredibly rate in the years up to 2020.

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3001 days ago

Weekend Video Postcard Number 29

I am really sure that I got sound and vision correct today! Fingers crossed. Greetings from a freezing Islington. I remember doing the first of these video postcards from a sun drenched Greece. I rather wish I was back there now although I guess it would be a bit less sun drenched. I digress.

On the agenda

1. Global warming nutters repenteth
2. UK loses AAA credit rating what does it mean?
3. Higher interest rates and UK house prices
4. Housebuilding stocks – notably Barratt Developments
5. Bearishness on the UK economy
6. What this means for the stockmarket
7. Tips on Nifty Fifty
8. UK Investor Show – an urgent plea
9. Plans for next week

PS. If you are not already signed up for it, please do sign up to my twice weekly free newsletter the Tomograph as it contains links to all my free content plus some exclusive articles. You can do so here.

And if you are on twitter can you follow me @tomwinnifrith

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3003 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Petropavlovsk (POG) – 2013 Guidance reduced – shares at year low but still a sell?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on Petropavlovsk. Sam writes…

A mid January trading statement from FTSE 250 listed Russia based gold miner Petropavlovsk (POG) was not entirely well received: although 2012 output will be ahead of estimates, 2013 guidance was reduced. That and the recent weakness in the gold price has seen the shares, which were trading at 750p a year ago, fall back to 302.5p, valuing the company at £567 million, but this is not one to bottom fish.

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3003 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Gold – Is the sell off the start of a bear market?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on the gold price – ‘natch I agree with the great metals guru. Sam writes…

Those who have called the top in gold at $800, $1,200 and $1,500 are again predicting the start of another gold market following the recent sell off down to $1565 oz. They are joined by newer names such as Goldman Sachs which has cut its long term price target to $1,200 oz and Citigroup which says that the bull market is officially over. The chartists have also joined in with talk of a “death cross”. They are in my view wrong, the long term uptrend will continue and gold bugs need to simply hold their nerves.

As a rare digression into technical analysis, I just point that there is no Death’s Cross – when the 50 day MA falls below the 200 day MA. That can happen only if the 200 day MA is declining, it happens to be rising.

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3004 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith: Drax pleases the market, but is off the high dividend tariff

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Drax.

So that old fashioned (in scale) and very British (Yorkshire) non global business of supplying the 7% of the UK’s electricity has, as part of the price of converting half its highly efficient coal fired electricity generation capacity, to the generation of electric power from biomass – mainly imported, fast growing replaceable timber – is off the stock market’s higher end dividend tariff. Before its results for last year to 31st December 2012, on a then share price of 609p, the published dividend yield for Drax (DRX) was 4.3%. That was then this is now.

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3005 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Plexus Holdings

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Plexus Holdings. Sam writes…

I see that Plexus (POS) was last night awarded the title “Best Oil & Gas stock” at the Stock Market Wire Awards awards ceremony in London. It is an absolute darling of the Bulletin Boards which is not surprising as it has delivered spectacular returns for shareholders. There is a good reason for that: its POS-GRIP wellhead technology is clearly world class and is much in demand, but the share price is now 240p valuing the business at £199 million. On the basis of what we know is the share price just a bit ahead of itself?

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3006 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore: EMIS Group – Exacting Market Impeding Shares?

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com from the day he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you an article he has published on tech stock Emis Group, a company I know absolutely nothing about. Steve writes…

Shares in EMIS Group (EMIS), a leading UK supplier of clinical software and related services to GP practices and other healthcare practitioners and a major software supplier to high street pharmacies, commenced 2013 at more than 900p but fell more than 16.5% (to 750p) on 24th January as the company reported “lower than planned revenues from the Australian defence contract, training and integrated care services. Group adjusted operating profit is expected to be marginally below analysts’ expectations, largely as a result of the accelerated staff and recruitment costs associated with the EMIS Web roll out and the slight revenue shortfalls highlighted above”. The shares have further declined since to trade at a current 650p, capitalising this AIM-listed company at £380.5 million. The following analyses whether this current, lower level represents value…

‘EMIS Web’ is the company’s ‘next generation’ clinical software system which enables GPs and other healthcare practitioners to connect with each other and securely share access to patients’ electronic health record. An accelerated roll out of this is noted to be “proceeding to plan”, whilst RX Systems, the group’s community pharmacy division, is “delivering a strong performance”. The company added the sum result is that group revenues for 2012 are expected to be not less than £86 million, with year-end net cash of £7.7 million.

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3006 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - sell RBS Now!

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at RBS ( or Royal Bank of Scotland as it was in my day).

The share price of RBS (RBS) has headed due south since my bearish comments on the company last month. Reviewing the share in terms of its future dividend paying capacity in the light of recent history, I observed that in the different world and circumstance of 2007 ( when bank capital adequacy was seemingly almost inconsequential and some banks were running on low or dubious capital or both ) RBS had distributed only 30% of its earnings as dividends. That implied on a totally theoretical, best expectation 30% dividend payout from 36p of earnings per share, a dividend of 11..9p; translating into by way of academic exercise, into an annual yield of a mere 3.3%.

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3007 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith - buy SSE for a near 6% yield

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at SSE ( or Scottish & Souther as it was in my day).

There are two things about energy supplier SSE Plc (it was until recently known as Scottish and Southern Electricity – which used to prompt thoughts of hairy highlanders incongruously tossing cables at a vicarage lawn tea party presided over by Miss Marples) which makes its shares a good dividend income play. But also, a share with some potential for long term capital appreciation relative to the FTSE 100 Index.

Firstly, SSE is explicitly committed to one over-riding objective investor objective which makes it noteworthy as an equity; that is, its proclaimed mission to increase its dividend payout by 2% more than the rate of inflation measured by the Retail Price Index. Chairman, Lord Smith of Kelvin (mysteriously a Kelvin being a unit of temperature movement) has explicitly confirmed that goal.

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3007 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on African Barrick

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on gold miner African Barrick, a company I know little about. Sam writes…

I have written twice about African Barrick (ABG) here in the past six weeks and both times recommended the shares as having long term attractions on a fundamental basis at 355p, notwithstanding the withdrawal of bid approaches around Christmas. Following the publication of full year numbers on 13th February the shares trade at 295p which begs the question of whether it is time to admit that I was wrong?

I am not hiding from my previous buy tip. You can find it

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3009 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Anglo American the writedowns are only just starting - Sell!

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on the Anglo American. It is a compelling read and not the sort of analysis you get in a broker note. Good stuff Sam.

Results from Anglo American (AAL) today are a handful. In a 40 page statement you have to wade through a lot of paperwork to find the salient points. Perhaps when you are reporting a headline loss of $1.49 billion – your first loss in a decade – you really are not that minded to make life easy for commentators., but this will not be the last headline loss, whatever the company says and the shares – at £20.47 – remain materially overvalued.

The results for calendar 2012 are terrible, no wonder Cynthia Carroll stood down as CEO. The net loss for 2011 compared to a net profit of $6.17 billion in 2011. If one strips out exceptional items the underlying profit was $6.16 billion – that was still a fall of 44% on 2011 with the company blaming this largely on lower metals prices.

What pushed the company into the red were a series of writedowns

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3010 days ago

New Guest Post by Sam Bottell: The Major Gold Producers – a sector “steeped in mediocrity”

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on the major gold producers across the globe (85 of them). It is very interesting indeed.

Did you wonder why when gold was racing ahead to $1,700 most gold stocks failed to follow suit? You would think that operational gearing would have seen gold stocks racing ahead across the board. As a believer in gold heading past $2,000 within 12 months you would have thought that I would be universally bullish but those who have read my work will know that I am not. As such I thought it worth reprinting an excerpt from a note published this week by analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard who makes a very valid point.

Reviewing 85 gold producers from across the globe he finds just 11 that manage a 25% return on capital. That is truly dismal. Bade’s conclusion is that the obsession with stock promotion has led to an increasing focus on production targets and valuations based simply on per ounces in the ground rather than on what return investors might actually generate. He writes:

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3011 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith is worried about Barclays

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at Barclays.

The market response to the Barclay’s 2012 figures and accompanying strategic review out to 2015 was good enough to suggest that the Quakers had returned to run the fallen bank to restore those long lost standards of Quaker ethics, which had once prompted customers to beat a pathway to the bank’s door. No Quaker would have fiddled Libor. But in their absence (assuming that he is not in fact a Quaker) Barclay’s new Chief Executive, Antony Jenkins, was the next best thing.

He does a splendid job invoking a new moral high ground to which Barclay’s employees, drowning in ‘they don’t get it’ public opprobrium, may now swim. It was emphatic moral re-armament. The words ‘respect’, ‘integrity’, ‘service’ and ‘stewardship’ were picked up, recorded and reported by scribbling journalists. A job well done! But can words alone change the bank’s more recent culture of error when investment banking will continue to be such a big part of the bank’s business?

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3011 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Pan African is a buy

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Pan African Resources. For what it is worth I agree with his conclusion!

South African gold miner Pan African Resources (PAF) has reported its results for the six months to 31 December 2012 and they are somewhat disappointing but do not affect the strong long term buy case. The shares have dipped to 18.75p on the numbers which makes for an attractive entry point.

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3012 days ago

Black Swan New Year Letter 2013: China to recover, US to recover, Europe Doomed

This is the annual letter sent out by my friend Richard Poulden. This year – as every year – we wil hold a 10 minute debate at the UKInvestor Show – I am not sure of the subject matter yet but it is always sparky. I am not sure that I agree 100% on China but on Europe we are at one. No debate there. Over to Richard:

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation” – Alan Greenspan, 1966

“Keep a clear head and always carry a light bulb” – Bob Dylan, 1965

Yesterday morning in Dubai was foggy: thick, gooey, 12-metre visibility stuff. As I drove my daughter to school , I said: “Let’s see how many cars we can find driving without lights”.

“Come on”, she said, “no one could be THAT stupid”

“Oh yes they could”, I said, “I’m going for a starter of three”.

Well we found three cars in the space of a few blocks. As we hit Sheik Zayed Road where the traffic in the fast lane was still doing 120km, she said: “OK, this is crazy, let’s go for 8 or 12”.

“That’s fine”, I said, “but I want to go for the big one: I want to find the European Union…. I want to find a bus..or a large sewage tanker”……and we did.

The gurus at Deutsche Bank published a study1 in July of last year suggesting that the politicians guiding the world economy were behaving exactly like those sewage tankers and buses in the fog. They propose this because their hypothesis is that none of the old economic philosophies actually apply to the current world economy and thus the levers being pulled by the politicians are not actually connected to anything.

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3013 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Madagascar Oil

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Madagascar Oil.

AIM listed Madagascar Oil (MOIL) had well publicised funding issues in the second half of last year caused by $17 million cost over-runs on the development of its Tsimiroro heavy oil field in Madagascar. However, boardroom changes have been made and today it has announced the completion of a placing and open offer (62.6% taken up) at 18p raising £49.5 million, which allows it to put its problems behind it and allows investors to look at what its assets are actually worth. Is a £100 million market capitalisation at 19p harsh? I think that it is.

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3014 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell says Buy Centamin

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a tip from TradingResearch Point on Centamin. For what it is worth I disagree with his conclusion!

Centamin Egypt (CEY) has been in the spotlight for six months because of the well publicised political difficulties in Egypt where it operates the Sukari gold mine. These problems have seen the shares fall sharply to 61p today which values the company at £669 million. Ignoring this backdrop of poitical strife and excitment – the underlying fact is that Sukari is a world class, cash generative and growing operation. That is not discounted in the share price and with a sense that stability is returning to Egypt the shares are a buy.

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3014 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BT

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BT.

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3014 days ago

Video Postcard Number 27

Greetings from deluded lefty central in Shipston-on-Stour. I think I got both sound and picture right this time! A short video as an afternoon of sporting misery beckons.

On the agenda

1. Cupid
2. S&U
3. UKInvestor Show
4. Market rotation bonds vs equities: Tom Stevenson
5. Inflation & equities
6. Gold and silver
7. The ability to price set
8. It is not a matter of life & death it is more important than that.

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3015 days ago

UKInvestorShow: All tickets Gone and Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery

Those who are not registered to receive my twice weekly Tomograph Newsletter may have missed this news but on Friday, ADVFN issued a regulatory release announcing that all 2500 seats at the UK Investor Show on April 13 had already been booked. We know other shows are struggling to fill seats but the speaker line-up at UKInvestor Show is so awesome that a full house was never in doubt. Wray, Slater, Leslau, Evil, Lucian, Frisbey, Van Dyke, Booker, etc simply do not appear at other shows. Anyhow, thanks for booking. I do ask one favour.

If you go to www.UKInvestorshow.com you will see that we are now running a waiting list for tickets. Already there are almost a hundred names on that list. If you have booked a ticket to UKInvestor show but cannot now attend please do let me know by emailing me at [email protected] so that I can reallocate that seat to someone who wants to attend but is now on the waiting list.

In advance, many thanks.

When we first announced that Nigel Farage would be one of our 25 speakers at the show I know that certain folk at my former employer scoffed at the idea. Heck, I knew – and ticket bookings reflect this – that he is not the major draw but I wanted him there since I am a UKIP sympathiser. Hey ho, I see that Nigel is now speaking at the other show. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I somehow think that our headline speakers of Messrs Wray, Leslau, Slater, etc will not be making a double appearance at the other, smaller, event.

Incidentally having already announced the first 30 PLC stands at UKInvestor Show we will be announcing the next 20 very shortly. Watch this space.

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3016 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Aquarius Platinum

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Aquarius Platinum I agree with his conclusion.

It is no surprise that results from Aquarius Platinum (AQP) for the six months to 31st December were poor. That was well flagged. The shares actually moved ahead on the numbers and that is down to the statement which contained a number of gems which indicate that the shares are materially undervalued.

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3019 days ago

UKInvestor Show – April 13th – just 50 seats left

That is the news as of tonight. On a day when two more PLCs signed up to present (Ariana Resources and The Innovation Group) we did our sums and there are now just 50 seats out of 2,500 left unallocated for what is clearly the UK’s leading investment show.

It is hardly surprising that two months before the event, nearly all the seats are allocated given the all star speaker line up:

Nigel Wray, Nigel Farage, Mark Slater, Evil Knievil, Lucian Miers, Nick Leslau, Richard Poulden, myself, Dominic Frisbey, Clem Chambers, Amanda Van Dyke, Christopher Booker, Mike Hall, Roger Lawson, Simon Denham, John Piper, David Buik, Steve Moore, Robert Sutherland Smith, Paul Atherley, Jan Nelson, Ronald Duncan, Craig Brown and the list goes on and on…

And with companies booking in at a rate of one a day almost 50 of the 80 PLC stands are now reserved and you can check out a list of some of the big name exhibitors HERE.

And so what are you doing on April 13th? At some stage tomorrow we will close the lists and start running a “reserve” ticket list for folks who MIGHT get a seat if we have a cancellation. That is a MIGHT.

We have just 50 seats left to allocate. You can still grab one of them if you book now HERE.

I hope to see you all on April 13.

Tom Winnifrith

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3022 days ago

Weekend Video Postcard Number 20

As per request the weekend video postcard is back. I found my camera, my tripod and I hope that this all works well enough – damn seem to have goofed on lighting again. I am out of practice. A simple few thoughts to (re) start with & no crowing about the rugby in case Olivia watches.

On the Agenda

1. Bull versus Bear the markets debate short term
2. Longer term – what inflation must mean, a more bearish tone.
3. The dynamics of new media
4. Steve Moore, ex senior writer at t1ps.com joins me working on the Nifty Fifty – the old t1ps team is now 100% reunited on our new website
5. Leslau vs Wray with me in the middle. More on UKInvestor Show where fewer than 500 seats now remain.

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3025 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Petra Diamonds

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Petra Diamonds. I happen to agree with his conclusion. In fact I’d be more damning.

Mining in South Africa is clearly not easy – something a trading statement from LSE listed Petra Diamonds (PDL) makes explicitly clear. The numbers for the six months to December 31st will be a bit disappointing but, worse, Petra guided investors to reduce their expectations for the year to June 30th. The shares now trade about 10% ahead of 12 month lows at 110p valuing Petra at £562 million but it appears hard to judge this company as the investor’s best friend at this level.

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3027 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Borders & Southern – Operations Update – Positive on the surface, but drill down to a sell

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Borders & Southern. I happen to agree with his conclusion.

The Falklands oil exploration stocks remain the darlings of the Bulletin Board but the bare fact is that while Rockhopper (RKH) has served up some good news the “field” has disappointed. Yet hope springs eternal and thus a presentation on 28th January from Borders & Southern (BOR) has sparked its shares into life once again sending the shares to 27.75p valuing the company at £133 million.

Borders has in the past enjoyed some success. In April 2011 it announced the Darwin find where initial tests suggested a gas condensate reserve of 130 to 250 million barrels of liquid. Recently the company re-asserted that a mid case recoverable reserve could be 210 million barrels. Note the words could be.

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3031 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Hochschild Mining

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on African Hochschild – as it happens I agree with his thesis.

Hochschild Mining (HOC) in my opinion, is the only sensible way to get gearing to silver on the London market and as a silver bull that naturally arouses my interest. On 23rd January the company released its Q4 and calendar 2012 production numbers which came in ahead of expectations. It has a strong balance sheet and a clear pipeline for a marked ramp up in production. As such, at 424.9p valuing the company at £1.3 billion the stock is a buy. Here is why.

Whilst silver may be considered the poor man’s gold, the explosion in paper money as a result of QE has to drive inflation at some point and that should push gold higher dragging silver with it. But there is more. Increasing industrial and medical demand for silver means that, in my view, it will outstrip gold. As such I am a silver bull.

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3033 days ago

City Veteran David Buik joins all star speaker lineup at UKInvestor Show

There are two big pieces of news today from the UK’s top investor conference, UKInvestor Show which takes place in April 13th in London.

The first is that following a rush of applications for places at the 2500 person event, which has seen more than 800 applications received in the past week the event is now 70% sold out. That is to say there are now less than 750 seats available. I have been involved in running the Master Investor event for 11 years and I have never seen such huge interest at this stage – eleven weeks before the show takes place

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3034 days ago

UK Investor Show now 60% SOLD OUT – book tickets NOW for April 13th before they all go

During the past week alone more than 350 seats have been booked for the UKL’s premier one day investor conference, UKInvestor Show which takes place in London on April 13th. Of the 2,500 seats on offer more than 60% are now allocated. We expect all the seats to be booked within the next few weeks.

Why are serious investors rushing to book tickets? Is it just to hear men who can really be called a Master Investor? No there is far more…

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3035 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Buy Xcite Energy at 102p – Target 181p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Bulletin Board darling Xcite Energy.

AIM oil explorer Xcite Energy (XEL) is a darling of the Bulletin Boards which is normally a good reason not to buy the shares. Indeed the shares have fallen from 395p in January 2011 to 103.25p today (they were 67.5p five months ago) and whilst this is not for the feint hearted, there is a string fundamental case for this £299 million capitalised company. I believe that the shares are worth 181p and are a buy.

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3036 days ago

The AIM model is not working – Explosive Roger Lawson of ShareSoc interview

I met up with Roger Lawson of ShareSoc last week to chat about life and record a video ( see below). The son of a miner, Roger is a self made man and commands my respect for that. When I lash out at an aspect of AIM, the City establishment can dismiss me as a maverick. See if I care. When Roger says what he says, members of the establishment who may ignore me have to listen. And what he says can be pretty incendiary.

We discussed how the Nomad system is broken and how Roger would fix it. How fund managers fail to hold PLC boards to account and also how private investors can hold PLC boards to account. Roger did not hold back.

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3037 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kentz Trading statement, buy tip vindicated

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Kentz where Sam has already been correct and is now doubling up.

It is always something of a risk recommending a share ahead of a trading statement. I took that risk with Kentz Corporation (KENZ) on January 6th and a trading statement today vindicated that call: earnings are in line with what I expected, the order backlog better than expected as was the net cash position. The last time I commented the shares were 381p – they closed today at 424p, valuing the company at £498 million.

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3041 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kenmare Resources – Equity Placing on the Way?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip & perhaps breaking news from him from TradingResearch Point covering a company from the old country ( er…Ireland)

I argued a few days ago that shares in Kenmare Resources (KMR) were good value but I now flag up a minor caveat – there appears to be a risk of an equity placing. A secondary caveat is that Kenmare appears to have issued a minor profits warning without actually publishing an RNS – it merely guided down expectation via an analyst’s presentation. That is not quite cricket but does this alter the investment case materially?

The presentation flags up that there has been a one month delay in the start of commissioning the Moma mine expansion project – that was due to kick off in December. In the greater scheme of things for a mine with a 140 year life I can live with that but it is another nuisance that that has plagued Kenmare over many years.

More critically, there is an update on the company’s outlook for 2013.

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3049 days ago

New Year Resolution - Book your seat on April 13 TODAY

We can always learn more about how to be better investors by learning from the experts. If your New Year Resolution is to do that then you need to book a ticket today to meet real Master Investors on April 13th in London at the UKInvestor Show, organised by ADVFN. The speakers are not career stockbrokers or rent a quote journalists but men who have actually made hundreds of millions of pounds by buying and selling the right assets. True master investors.

You can book your free ticket HERE

Leading the line-up are Nick Leslau and Nigel Wray. Nick was one of TV’s secret millionaires and is probably the most successful property investor of his generation. The firm he runs owns Madame Tussauds, thousands of pubs and much else. Over many years he has worked closely with Nigel Wray, aka Britain’s Buffet , the master of small cap investing. Nigel is the biggest shareholder in Domino’s Pizzza (LSE:DOM), having bought in at 36p – the shares are now c£5 – and is also a big holder of Alliance Pharma (LSE:APH) another stock worth watching.

Next up is Mark Slater, son of Jim and an extraordinarily successful fund manager in his own right. For detailed bottom up analysis of smaller growth plays you just cannot beat Mark and his detailed stock specific presentations are always packed with ideas. He is followed by Dominic Frisbey, comedian and gold guru. Have you ever seen his debt bomb video? If not watch it http://tomwinnifrith.com/articles/204/debt-bomb-great-video-well-done-dominic-frisby as it is a classic. Dominic is not only someone who writes about gold but he has made more than a million quid from more or less zero capital buying and selling the stuff. His theme: gold.

We have the UK’s two best known bear raiders in conversation (with me). That is to say Evil Knievil and Lucien Miers (profiled HERE). In what is promised to be a structured presentation they will outline their market views but also specifically a top ten shorts for 2013.

Moving on we also have a keynote presentation from another Nigel. That is Nigel Farage MEP the leader of UKIP on why the UK should save itself billions and quit the Evil Empire. Farage is funny and articulate and he has a good point don’t you think?

If you want a free ticket book NOW HERE, as the 2,500 seats will go on a first come first served basis

But it does not end there. During the afternoon we have two alternatives for you.

Choice One is the Traders Session. Lead by Clem Chambers of ADVFN, half a dozen of the UK’s best known traders will discuss strategies, charts and ideas to make money in 2013. On stage are Zak Mir, John Piper, Simon Denham of London Capital and Alpesh Patel.

Choice two are the breakout rooms where you can hear presentations on how to make money in mining stocks by Amanda Van Dyke a partner at Dundee Securities and chair of Women in Mining, on turfing out useless boards and shareholder activism by Roger Lawson of ShareSoc, on how climate change laws will cost you dear by Christopher Booker and on making money from alternative investments by Mike Hall of Stanley Gibbons. Each speaker will do two presentations.

That knockout line-up is surely enough. To book free tickets which will be allocated on a first come first served basis click HERE

Not enough? Well how about the companies attending giving you a unique chance to chat to the CEOs of companies you may be invested in or thinking about backing. Among those already lined up are: EMED, Minoan, Vatukoula, Stanley Gibbons, Ortac, Intandem, Leyshon Resources, ReThink Group, Northern Petroleum, 1Spatial, Wishbone Gold, PGC Entertainment, Anglesey Mining, Red Rock Resources, Regency Mines, Sharescope, Mechan Controls, Symphony Environmental, K3 Business Technology, @UK, Alexander Mining, London Capital Group and the list goes on and on. There will be around 80 stands on the day.

The venue is Excel in London and the fun starts at 9.30 AM on April 13th. There are 2,500 tickets available and they will go on a first come first served basis. But hurry. Already the show is one third booked out!

If you want more details or to book a seat go HERE to the UKInvestor Show website.

I look forward to seeing you in April

Tom Winnifrith

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3051 days ago

Guest post Sam Bottell: Kentz - IMS Demonstrates Earnings Visibility and balance sheet strength: Neither fully discounted

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

As it happens I agree with his conclusion.

Kentz Corporation (KENZ) is a global engineering specialist solution services company providing full engineering, procurement and construction services (EPC) to mainly the energy and resources sector. The company’s niche and positioning is as a tier-two contractor and bids for small / medium sized projects where competition is relatively low. Over the years Kentz has become a global player and currently provides solutions with 14,000 employees operating in 29 countries worldwide. The relative strength of the oil price and Kentz’s global capacity in mining means that this company has delivered consistent sales, profits, cashflow and dividend growth since its IPO. A trading statement on November 12 indicated that nothing is changing in this respect. I would argue that a 381p share price (from a year high 490p) fails to discount this. Here is why.

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3055 days ago

Guest post from Sam Bottell: Afferro Mining – Buy for the bid or on fundamentals?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

AIM listed Afferro Mining (AFF) is a West African focused iron ore play. With a solid net cash position and an attractive portfolio of assets one can make a solid case for buying the shares on fundamentals, a case strengthened by the recent recovery in the iron price. But there is also a corporate angle with the company admitting just before Christmas that it can “confirm that it is in discussions with multiple parties which may or may not lead to a strategic investment or a proposal to acquire the outstanding shares of the Company.” Not surprisingly the shares have rallied from a year low of around 40p in the second quarter to a share price today of 101.25p today, valuing it at £106 million. But arguably there is more to come.

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3069 days ago

Mark’s In: Mark Slater completes all star line-up at UKInvestor Show on April 13th

f you want to hear quality speakers there is only one UK Investor show to attend next year and that is The UKInvestor Show held on April 13th at Excel in London. The speaker lineup is now almost complete with news that Mark Slater, the most successful fund manager of his generation is on board.

Mark joins as the other main stage speakers: Nigel Wray (Britain’s Buffett), Nick Leslau (property legend and secret millionaire), bear raiders Lucian Miers and Evil Knievil, gold guru Dominic Frisby and UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

And that is not all: The trader’s session (also a main stage event) is chaired by Steve Moore and stars Clem Chambers, Alpesh Patel, Simon Denham, John Piper and Zak Mir (plus one name to reveal shortly)

And in the breakout rooms we have the Goddess, Amanda VanDyke on making money from mining stocks, Stanley Gibbons boss Mike Hall on alternative investments, Roger Lawson on shareholder activism and Christopher Booker on how global warming costs you so much.

There is the Poulden v Winnifrith debate (10 minutes of main stage comedy) and 80 companies presenting at CEO level.

No other show comes even close to assembling such an all star lineup.

There are just 2,500 tickets on offer. They go strictly on a first come first served basis. Already more than a fifth are gone ahead of the official launch of the show campaign in the New Year. Treat yourself to a free gift this Christmas. To book your free seat and to get more details click HERE.

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3071 days ago

Video Postcard Number 19

Recording in freezing and wet Warwickshire with a new camera I hope the sound and picture quality is alright. My old camera has gone astray somewhere between Real Man Pizza Company, drinks with Lucian and St Albans. I fear it will not be seen again.

On the Agenda

1. Nigel Farage joins the speaker line-up at UKInvestor Show on April 13th. A real buncjh of men and women who one would describe as a Master Investor plus Farage. It really is a cracking lineup and you can book your tickets here.

2. Another two tips out this week on the Nifty Fifty. You can gain immediate access ahead of two more tips next week here.

3. Centamin and the idea of quantifying political risk in any stock

4. Northern Petroleum, director buying and market over-reaction

5. Plans for a Christmas slowdown by me

You can watch the video below:

Approximate Running Time 9 minutes

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3073 days ago

UKIP leader Nigel Farage MEP joins headline speakers at UKInvestorShow on April 13th

UKInvestor Show is an event about making money but I have always thought such a show needs one non investment speaker and I am delighted to say that Nigel Farage MEP emailed this morning and he is up for it. The leader of UKIP will talk about how staying in the EU costs all of us so much and why we should leave now.

And so on April 13th at Excel we now have a main stage line up of Nigel Wray (Britain’s Buffett), Nick Leslau (property legend and secret millionaire), bear raiders Evil Knievil and Lucian Miers and Dominic Frisbey, Mr Gold and Nigel Farage. And there is one other surprise for you on the main stage.

The traders session ( also a main stage event) is chaired by Steve Moore and stars Clem Chambers, Alpesh Patel, Simon Denham, John Piper and Zak Mir ( plus one name to reveal shortly)

In the breakout rooms we have the Goddess, Amanda VanDyke on making money from mining stocks, Stanley Gibbons boss Mike Hall on alternative investments, Roger Lawson on shareholder activism and Christopher Booker on how global warming costs you so much.

There is the Poulden v Winnifrith debate (10 minutes of main stage comedy) and 80 companies presenting at CEO level.

You have to admit that is a cracking line-up. No other show even comes close. If you want to hear a master investor speak this is the only show worth attending. To register for your free ticket on a first come first served basis go HERE.

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3075 days ago

UKInvestor Show April 13th – the line up of Master Investors almost complete

We still have one big name main stage speaker and one big name trader to reveal but the line up of big names at the UK’s premier investor show, UKInvestor – organised by ADVFN – is now almost complete. The show is on April 13th at the Excel centre. At some other events the speakers are not even household names in their own households. But you do not need to go on Google to find out that our presenters really can all be termed a Master Investor. And then there are the companies presenting as well…

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