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mining stock

2619 days ago

Wolf Minerals – The World’s Number One Mining analyst Vindicated

Yesterday I pointed out how Wolf Minerals (WLFE) the AIM Cesspit and ASX listed wannabbee miner had engaged in typical pump and place activities which will inevitably see some PIs (the folks paying 26p two weeks ago) screwed as institutions get in on a placing at sub 20p.
 

Actually we do not know what the placing price will be yet, Wolf has not got around to letting us know. Perhaps its board is too busy enjoying spending the A$1.2m they trouser collectively each year. You can read about the pump and place HERE.


While we mere mortals were fooled by this operation I should flag up that the World’s Number One Mining Analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard was not legged over. Writing after an operational update on 20th January the great man opined: 

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2629 days ago

W Resources – Sell – when’s the heavily discounted placing?

Shares in AIM listed miner W Resources (WRES) have perked up by 0.05p today to 0.97p valuing this fine enterprise at c£20 million. But fear not, this is the AIM Cesspit, so here  are four reasons why you should sell as there is a placing ahead. 

  1. Edison pushing out a bullish note (remember that it is paid to publish) is always a good sign that a placing is imminent.
  2. This company is a perennial placer – in 2013 there were five placings. Leopards….
  3. There has been a flurry of RNS statements of late. That again is a sure fire sign that a company is planning a placing and trying to get a bit of excitement (the pump) ahead of the dump.
  4. Cash. This is the critical issue. 
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2678 days ago

Ortac Resources Buys into Andiamo - every cloud has a copper lining

The misery of the junior mining markets has caused pain for many but it also gives an opportunity to those with cash…step forward Ortac Resources (OTC) which has today announced a very interesting little deal which could be a real winner. 

At 0.24p Ortac is capitalised at just £5.4 million. Its main focus was and – having chatted to Ortac boss Vassilios Carellas over the weekend - still is Slovakia. In that country it has – at Sturec- a JORC compliant gold resource of 873,000 oz. and has completed a PFS. Progress on developing a clearly commercial mine has been delayed by bearded eco-loons who prefer trees to jobs but I am led to believe that progress is being made on that front and we will have news in 2014.

But Carellas is an opportunist.

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2730 days ago

Berkeley Mineral Resources – speculative buy at 2.13p

The maths look compelling (even heavily risk weighted), the newsflow should be sparkling according to my sources but this is mining: it is all about the delivery. Even so, Berkeley (BMR) is worth a flutter as a speculative buy share tip at 2.13p. I could see the stock hitting 3p in fairly quick order. But it is speculative.

At 2.13p the market capitalisation is £21.5 million. We have results looming and though the numbers will be irrelevant what I am told by good sources we will get is a clear indication of when operations in Kabwe in Zambia will be chucking off cash. The answer is soon. 

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2733 days ago

Sovereign Mines of Africa: Rampity, Rampity, ramp – another RNS: When is the placing?

6 bullish RNS releases since September 17th. Rampity, rampity, ramp. All we need now is an independent/ paid for research report produced by uber-posh police assaulting pisshead, oops I meant to say respected mining analyst, Charlie Gibson of Edison setting a telephone number target price for the shares. Then Private Investors could get totally screwed by Sovereign Mines of Africa (SMA).

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2745 days ago

Alecto Minerals – a totally misleading announcement from a desperate firm

Alecto Minerals (ALO) wins today’s prize for the most misleading announcement from the AIM Cesspit with an RNS headlined “”£1 million placing and funding arrangement”. Has Alecto just secured an additional £1 million? Like hell it has. And is it “pleased to announce” this deal. Also like hell it is. It is desperate for cash and this is really last gasp death spiral stuff.

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2752 days ago

Kenmare Resources more bad news. Oh dear. Oh dear

Kenmare Resources (KMR) keeps on promising both operational improvements and that the price of ilmenite will firm up. History suggests that the former is about as likely as grotesquely overpaid managing director Michael Carvill (what will your “bonus” be this year Mike?) winning Miss World. And on the latter…oh dear: more bad news.

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2769 days ago

Kenmare – Where now post rescue cash call? Withering analyst comment.

I have been a bear of Kenmare Resources (KMR) for some time and predicted that a cash call was on the way. That it and a profits alert was served up at 5.21 PM the other day rather makes my point about the management of this business.  But the mega teddy on Kenmare is the world’s most cynical mining analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard who has let rip today. Bade writes:

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2793 days ago

Sovereign Mines of Africa – when’s the cash call?

We have had the pump now when’s the dump – the placing of new shares ? It is now only a matter of time for AIM listed Sovereign Mines of Africa (SMA) which at 3.5p is valued at £8.3 million. The company is clearly sub scale as a gold explorer and its cash position is dire. Come on Sovereign – it’s time to fess up: how much will you be diluting shareholders to hell and when? I am sure that your slimeball broker Jerry Keen of Shore Cap is already on the case. 

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2804 days ago

Q&A with Sally Schofield of AIM Listed Edenville Energy

I met up today with Sally Schofield, the executive chairman of AIM listed Edenville Energy (EDL), and Rufus Short, NED, in the wake of today’s publication of a scoping study on the Rukwa coal project in Tanzania.

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2825 days ago

Sell New World Resources says Mining Guru Roger Bade

An explicit sell note comes out today from mining guru Roger Bade on New World Resources (NWR). Unlike most common or garden analysts, the guru Bade looks past the P&L to the balance sheet. The most excellent Roger writes:

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2830 days ago

Exclusive: Q&A Session with Dave Paxton of Vatukoula

Today I ask David Paxton the CEO of Vatukoula Gold about the news on 12th August that his company has secured $40 million in new financing from China’s Zhongrun and where it leaves investors with the shares at 8.15p.

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2843 days ago

Kenmare Resources Trading Statement – less dire than usual, but…

Kenmare Resources (KMR) has served up a trading statement which for one shows more steps forward than back. But it is hardly impressive. At least it has managed to persuade the banks to extend debt repayment terms. But ilmenite prices remain soft. The uber excellent mining analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard writes:

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2849 days ago

Arian Silver – More Bullshit from the Sheep shaggers as Uber Expensive Funding announced

AIM Cesspit listed Arian Silver (AGQ) has overdosed on its equity drawdown death spiral. It failed to attract any interest for a share placing a few months ago as I exposed on this website provoking much anger from its dickead of a PR man. And so it has issued convertible debt which is incredibly expensive – this company really is desperate.

 

It has not yet actually raised the C$15 million it says that it is doing but has signed up a leading Canadian specialist broker and it says it has one punter who will take the whole lot. I will humour the uber Welsh boyos at Arian by saying that the debt issue will go ahead.

See chaps I am a nice guy. So there is no need to complain about this article. Leave the bleating to your girlfriends. Damn,

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2849 days ago

Johnson Matthey a sell at 2758 - uber excellent analyst Roger Bade

The uber excellent mining analyst Roger Bade of Whitman Howard has today pointed out what seems blindingly obvious to me but apparently not to most of the other mining analysts in London: shares in Johnson Matthey (JMAT) at 2758p just look to be patently overvalued. In my humble opinion there has to be 20% downside.  But Bade is the expert and he writes:

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2851 days ago

Exclusive: Evil Knievil buys Orosur Mining in size and predicts "market and Gulf Keystone Collapso"

Shareprophets can reveal that infamous bear raider Evil Knievil has acquired a near disclosable stake in AIM listed mining stock (OMI) after buying heavily at c7p. The shares are now 9.875p valuing Orosur at £7 million but Knievil (the alias of Simon Cawkwell) argues that on a break-up basis the gold producer is worth $30 million

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2853 days ago

Sirius Minerals more delays – when is the cash call ( part2) - this is getting worse

I flagged last week that even before it starts building its proposed mine, AIM Cesspit listed Sirius Minerals (SXX) is going to have to raise fresh equity just to keep going. Given the material uncertainties that now exist one wonders at what price the cash call will be. The shares are now 18.5p but the longer it waits the harder this is going to be. What price a cash call now? 15p? 12p?
You can read my piece of last week here

But things seem to be getting worse.

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2865 days ago

Bullabulling - VSA Note: This company is worthless even at a $1400 gold price

Broker VSA initiated its coverage of dual listed hole in the ground wannabee gold miner Bullabulling Gold (BLG) at 7.15p with a speculative buy stance last October. With the shares at 1.875p the unrepentant broker’s stance is unchanged on this AIM Cesspit posterboy.

I guess VSA was half right; Bullabullshit is highly speculative it is just the buy but that was a duff call. Even VSA which seems to be a fully paid up member of the Bullabullabullshit fan club admits that at current gold prices (or indeed at $1400) this stock is worthless.

The gold price is now $1250 oz. It is all very well

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2866 days ago

Ariana at 1p worth 5.51p says Edison - you sure fellows?

Do not get me wrong – I like AIM listed gold mining stock Ariana (AAU) and think that the stock is cheap at 1p but the latest research from paid for researcher Edison is, er….complete crap.

The note from uber-posh analyst Charlie Gibson kicks off with the following statement:

Ariana has announced the outcome of its final Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Kiziltepe sector of its JV Red Rabbit project.

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2866 days ago

Centamin Q2 numbers good but the bulls remain in dreamland

Centamin (CEY), the gold miner operating in the delightful peaceful paradise on earth that is Egypt has today announced Q2 production numbers. As a bear of this stock since last summer when Egypt headed down the Islamofascist route it would be churlish of me not to admit that the numbers are not excellent. They are superb. But with respect that is not the point.

Incidentally I called Centamin 100% correctly on the bear tack just as I had on the bull tack (tipped at 8p sold at 139p) but got heaps of abuse from Bulletin Board Morons for going bearish. Fear not, those who abused me, I am not looking for an apology. You have suffered enough with the financial losses you incurred as you dismissed me as a fool. I shall have another poolside beer and drink to your health. “Cheers…here’s to the Bulletin Board morons”

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2870 days ago

Goldstone drilling results - can it really say this?

AIM Cesspit listed gold explorer GoldStone (GRL) announced drilling results from its Ngoutou project in Gabon on 4th July via an official release which I, charitably, describe as optimistic. I understand that companies in the “jeux san revenue” exploration game must always put the best spin on life ahead of the next fund raise but there are limits.

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2871 days ago

How do you turn £40 million into $400 million and then into $100,000? Ask African Eagle

The story of AIM cesspit woe that is African Eagle (AFE) continued apace this week with news that all of its assets have been put into a company called Blackdown and that African is to sell 90% of that company for just $100,000. Actually it will not make that much from the sale but more on that later.

The bare fact is that in just over 10 years on AIM and a few years on Ofex before that African has raised and spunked away around £40 million. A good part of that went on fees to greedy City advisors and to a rolling cast of senior management. You must bear in mind that you have to pony up to attract “the right boardroom talent.”

Over the years

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2873 days ago

Amara Mining - Baomahun Feasibility Study is a joke

AIM Cesspit listed Amara Mining (AMA) is today’s entrant in the “fantasy world of feasibility studies” with an absolute corker relating to its Baomahun project in Sierra Leone. This is beyond a joke.

The long delayed National Instrument 43-101 compliant Baomahun Feasibility Study is finally out. Amara states that it shows the project to be “robust” and to have a Net Present value of $127 million. At 14p Amara is capitalised at £23 million.

Hello sailor, where do I buy the shares? Oh hang on, wait a second

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2874 days ago

Bullabulling - More bullshit as new mineplan announced - the maths DO NOT stack up

AIM Cesspit and ASX listed Bullabulling Gold (BLG) is running out of money fast. It needs to raise cash well before Christmas or it is toast. As such it is now issuing upbeat RNS statements to try to get private investors to buy stock to drive the share price up so that institutions come in (at a huge discount) later. And so we have today’s statement offering revised economics for its project at Bullabullabullshit in the land of high culture that is Australia.

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2879 days ago

The strange case of Iofina

I met Iofina (IOF) years ago and resisted the urge to tip the AIM listed shares. That was clearly a ghastly mistake as it has – until recently prospered, in share price terms, from building facilities to “mine” iodine.  On Monday its shares slumped by 40% at one point. The company said that there was no reason for that and they then rallied strongly. I suspect that this is a highly margined stock and that a small initial fall triggered stop losses with spreadbetters which then became a vicious circle. But at 150p with a £191 million fully diluted market cap would I be happy to own this AIM listed stock?

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2885 days ago

Centamin - where is the RNS fellows?

If a company has major news it should treat all investors the same and issue an RNS. And with that in mind what the hell is gold miner Centamin (CEY) playing at? Telling a newswire journalist material information so that City investors are up to speed but mug punters without an access to a Reuters terminal are kept in the dark shows a shocking contempt for private investors.

I merely quote

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2895 days ago

Sprott starting to offload Arian Silver - another reason to sell

Eric Sprott is Mr Silver. He is a passionate bull of the metal and his funds are the number one funds in the sector. About the only reason for buying shares in AIM & TSX listed Arian Silver (AGQ) was that Sprott was a major shareholder. But, oh dear me…he is selling.  How will Arian's prick of a PR man spin this one?

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2897 days ago

Goldplat - Profits Warning: Buy for Income

On Monday, Goldplat (GDP), the AIM-listed African gold producer, rather disappointingly warned that “EBITDA for FY2013 is likely to be materially lower than market expectations”. I am disappointed because I had tipped the stock at a higher level. But how many gold companies issue an alert and still seem set to maintain a bumper dividend? Not a lot. And that is why this is a buying opportunity for both income seekers and those wanting gold exposure.

Although the company notes

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2901 days ago

Arian Silver - another death spiral drawdown: show me the money boyos

Away from the Downing Street Cesspit to the AIM Cesspit, Arian Silver (AGQ) which is also TSX listed has served up another classic statement as it yet again tapped its death spiral facility with YA Global – this time raising £216,000 at 5.0199p. Oh dear what bullshit.

The company says that the cash will be used for “working capital and other costs in the short-term, facilitating the acquisition of the El Bote mill, as announced on 15 March 2013”.  Really?

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2906 days ago

Kalimantan Quarterlies - when's the placing chaps?

Kalimantan Gold (KLG) is listed on the TSX as well as the Cesspit and its quarterlies out today tell a familiar story.  The only question is when is the next placing? I guess rather soon but then as a company that has passed the hat around numerous times in its long and undistinguished Cesspit career Kalimantan at least knows how to do the paperwork.

In the three months to March 31st 2013 the company booked a profit of $25,151 thanks to management fees for operating the KSK joint venture (mine exploration). In terms of cash it is a rather less happy picture.  Kalimantan’s partner funds most of its exploration work but not all and thus Kalimantan boldly states:

 

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2908 days ago

AIM Cesspit critical ward - Scotgold update

It is less than four weeks ago when I highlighted the tale of woe at AIM Cesspit listed Scotgold (SGZ) with the shares then at 1.625p. I note that the shares are now quoted at 1p-1.5p so I guess things are not looking up for this dual listed POS Company. But it will get worse.

If you remember this company came to AIM in 2008 and its Aussie management team happily plundered almost half a million quid in fees last year. It has its sole asset, a Scottish gold mine, on a care and maintenance basis as it cannot get funding to develop it. Quelle Surprise.

 

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2908 days ago

Norseman Gold - Not Over Yet

Having been booted off the AIM Cesspit, Norseman Gold is still suspended on the ASX. However an operational update published before the Bank Holiday in Oz gives a glimmer of hope that all may not be entirely lost. But with Norseman, one of my worst share tips ever for which I apologise once again, we have come to expect the worst.

 

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2910 days ago

EMED: Investors are bored but should they be scared?

AIM listed wannabee copper mining stock EMED (EMED) issued a rather wordy statement on Wednesday which is on balance good news. The market has not read it that way and the shares now languish at 6.875p. It took me a good while to read through the verbage which was rather like wading through treacle. But it is not frustration with a press release that has caused the stock to fall so sharply since the statement.

The statement reads:

 

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2913 days ago

Arian Silver Very Odd Share Price Movements ahead of Dismal Results and Dire Statement

On the AIM Cesspit unusual share price movements ahead of statements are par for the course. Of course nothing is ever awry. This is a market where a company can issue a statement that it is completely untrue and face no sanction (Verdes – see here) and indeed do a placing 24 hours after issue an untrue RNS (Sefton on March 6th see here) and again there is no sanction. There are no rules on the Cesspit. And that brings me to Arian Silver (AGQ).



Its shares raced ahead in the two sessions prior to lunchtime today gaining some 35% to 6.25p. And then it issued dismal quarterlies with a dire warning that worse may be to come and the shares fell sharply back to 5.5p. Why did the shares move so sharply ahead of the numbers? Who was buying? On what information? As it is an irregular price movement no doubt it is being investigated but clearly nothing was wrong (it never is on the Cesspit) and so nothing will happen.

But let’s not get distracted from the numbers and the accompanying statement. The former are utterly dismal. The latter even worse.

In the first quarter to March 31st the company had a bit of a disagreement with the chappy who processes its silver on a toll basis. And thus revenues were nil. Helped by $700,000 of PLC costs the company racked up a net loss of $935,000. How the xxxx

 

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2913 days ago

On the AIM Cesspit The looming collapse of Great Western Mining- It is all my fault apparently

Oh dear, the word on the street is that things are going badly wrong at Great Western Mining (GWMO) but apparently the company is saying that “it is all Tom Winnifrith’s fault.”  As I go to clear another space on the Mantelpiece for my next trophy let me explain.

On May 10th I pointed out that the balance sheet of Great Western was almost certainly a train wreck. That is to say cash minus trade payables was somewhere between just over nil and minus quite a bit. With no revenues at all it strikes that if it is not already trading while insolvent it soon will be. That as you are aware is a very naughty thing to do and if directors are aware that a company is trading while insolvent they have a legal duty to stop doing so and that means a statement that its shares are being suspended pending clarification. But heck this is the Cesspit so what do rules matter?

Now it is clear that Great Western (at 1.725p valued at £1.12 million) needs to raise material cash to keep going. But that is rather hard to do for three reasons:

 

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2915 days ago

In the AIM Cesspit - The African Eagle Saga

African Eagle (AFE) joined AIM from PLUS in June 2003. Today it is six months away from oblivion. Its rise and fall is a morality tale from the Cesspit. No-one emerges from this tale with any credit. I say this as someone who tipped the stock but a long while ago advised cutting losses.  But let’s start at the beginning. This is pretty horrific reading.

African started out as Twigg Minerals on the old Ofex market. At the time it came to AIM it was banging on about its gold assets in Tanzania: Miyabi and Iguribi.  But they were not big enough. Miyabi is now part of a JV with African having 25% but still nowhere near production. The other assets were even less spectacular.  And so to support fund raise after fund raise (there have been more than a dozen to date) the company started promoting copper assets in Zambia.

Sasare, Ndola, Lunga all were company makers we were told as investors were tapped again and again. That was until the company stumbled on something even more exciting. By 2009 the word was Dutwa – a vast Nickel find in Tanzania. The way to maximise shareholder value was to push ahead with Dutwa (oh can we raise some more money please?) and those other company makers were dropped. African had a new company maker.

 

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2917 days ago

Scoop: Vatakoula to announce 15p placing as Chinese prepare to take 29.9 per cent stake

ShareProphets can exclusively reveal that AIM listed gold miner Vatakoula (VGM) has negotiated a deal whereby a major Chinese mining group will invest £4.5 million at 15p per share – this compares to a Friday share price of 6.5p.

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2917 days ago

Sirius Minerals - New Threat to Planning Permission

Whilst AIM Cesspit listed Sirius Minerals (SXX) is keen to issue an RNS every time there is good news on its planning application to build a vast mine on the North York Moors it seems rather less keen to broadcast the bad news. So I guess that is my job.

Last week I revealed how an independent study cast doubts on the economic need for the project – something you can read here.

Today I am grateful to a reader in the Grim North who alerts me to the headline in the Whitby Gazette which is now on my list of must read publications.

The headline screams “New mine would be a threat to tourism” and the article reads:

Tourism would be hit by a £41 million loss every year as visitors avoid congested roads and a spoil heap the size of Wembley Stadium, caused by a new potash mine, it is claimed

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2917 days ago

AIM Cesspit - Public Spanked Bottom for Arian Silver

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. That used to be the catchphrase of Mike Walters in his tipster heyday and boy does it apply to Arian Silver which has just received a very public bottom spanking for filing a non-compliant report from the Canadian regulator. Arian is listed in Canada as well as on the Cesspit AIM market.

Rather than be accused of making it up I just reprint the Arian statement in full:



Arian  Silver announces  its intention to  file  a  technical  report  including  a  summary  of operational details and economic factors.

The  British Columbia Securities Commission  has reviewed the Company’s independent technical report, compiled by CSA Global Limited and dated 23 April 2012, which was published for the  primary purpose  of  updating  investors with the results of the 10,000 metre phase 4 drilling programme  at  Arian’s  San  Jose property.

The Commission’s review of the 2012 Report identified areas of non-compliance with the Canadian standards of disclosure for mineral projects

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2920 days ago

Centamin Excellent Results but....

Fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) has announced its results from its Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt for the quarter ended 31 March 2013. Total gold production for the quarter was a record 87,016 oz and sales totalled 86,054oz. The gold price received was $1,604/oz, giving revenues of $138.2 million. Cash operating costs were $556/oz and this resulted in a profit before tax of $71.89 million before a loss of $3.087M on the sale of financial assets.  There is no doubt that these results were superb. Yes you read that correctly – they were brilliant. But.

There are a few less than minor issues to flag up.

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2920 days ago

Arian Silver Setting the Record straight - still a sell



The PR spokesman for Arian Silver (AQG) and I have just had a curious chat prompted by my prior articles and also by a question posed at the company’s AGM. Let’s get the facts straight here and cut the AIM Cesspit-type bullshit – Arian needs cash fast.

I alleged in a recent article that the company had failed to get a placing away – you can read that here.

At the AGM this article was flagged up, my name was mentioned (oooh er missus:  infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in for me) and the company denied categorically that it had failed to get a placing away.



Er…. Up to a point.

 

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2926 days ago

Exclusive: Sirius Minerals - the numbers may not stack up: what the company has NOT told you

On 9th may AIM Cesspit listed Sirius Minerals (SXX) updated investors on the planning process for its proposed mine on the North York Moors. The RAF has asked a few questions which Sirius says that it will answer. But there was another submission made to the North York Moors National Park Planning Authority which Sirius, er…neglected to detail its release. It is not good news.

At this point I hand over to the ever excellent Roger Bade of Whitman Howard who writes in his morning missive:

 

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2926 days ago

Centamin Egypt: In De Nile without a paddle

Oh Dear. Oh Dear. Oh Dear. It looks as if the Islamofascists in Egypt are moving a step closer to seizing Centamin’s (CEY) flagship Sukari gold mine, but the company (and its shareholders) are in denial. A statement today reveals the grim tidings.

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2928 days ago

Arian Silver Death Spiral Drawdown underway- attempted placing must have failed

We reported here a couple of weeks ago that AIM and TSX listed Arian Silver (AGQ) had tried to get a placing away in the UK and had failed and was thus resorting to tapping investors in the Dominions. The company huffed and puffed and issued an RNS which was very huffy puffy but did not exactly deny our story. Well it could not do so as we had it verified from an investor Arian’s broker tried to tap up …what we said was true.

Well it looks as if the Canadians have as much appetite for the stock as the Brits.  That is to say none whatsoever. For today Arian has fessed up that it has been forced to tap its YA Global Death Spiral equity draw-down facility

 

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2928 days ago

AIM Cesspit: EastCoal Inc IPO to suspended pending clarification within 6 months: Is this a record?

On the AIM Cesspit new records appear to be smashed every day and the latest one might just have been set by EastCoal Inc  (ECX). It was already listed in Canada but on December 28th it raised a gross $9.5 million at 12.2p per share thanks to Cenkos and dual listed on AIM. On Tuesday May 7th its shares were suspended at 3.875 pending clarification of its financial position. This morning the finance director has quit.

I asked its PR firm (Tavistock) if this was a new record for IPO to suspended going possibly tits up

 

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2935 days ago

Aim Cesspit - the end of Norseman Gold?

Norseman Gold (NGL) has been kicked off AIM.

The suspended shares are being de-listed at once. This was a bad tip from me and fits in with the general rule “never tip dual listed Aussie companies on the AIM Cesspit.” Good Australian companies can raise plenty of cash back in the land of high culture. Bad ones tap up folks on the Cesspit. I apologise for getting it wrong – its management including David Steinepreis have an awful lot more to apologise for. The game is not 100% over but I would suggest that if Dave tries to list anything in London ever again you pass on that offer.

The company is now again in control of its assets. But it was told by AIM that it needed to present a business plan and show that it had the working capital to execute it within six months of its suspension or get de-listed. The management asked for a one month extension but did not deliver and so the shares were booted off the Cesspit.

The shares remain listed on the ASX

 

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2935 days ago

AIM Cesspit - is Scotgold toast?

The history of Australian companies seeking a dual listing on AIM is not a happy one. With a vibrant mining sector in the land founded as a penal company, as a rule good companies have no need to travel to London to tap up British investors via the AIM cesspit. And so that brings us nicely to Scotgold (SGZ).

In the year to June 30th 2012 its five man board (with just 2 executive directors) cost shareholders (in remuneration only) A$640,000 – let’s call that £430,000. That was an increase on 2011. What an annual report does not disclose is the expense claims submitted by directors. But one always suspects that this will add a few bob to the outflow. This company has been kicking around as Scotgold since May 2008 and so lucky shareholders have – over that years funded the board to the tune of, shall we say £2 million.  Revenues to date? Natch. Nil.  This is a gold development company and as we know – and here I quote the Scotgold annual report: “The company’s aim is to remunerate at a level that will attract and retain high-calibre Directors and employees. Company officers and Directors are remunerated to a level consistent with size of the Company.”

Sure, so what value have these high calibre men (including a company secretary who has 2 other full time positions but still extracted A$166,000 in fees from Scotgold last year) delivered for shareholders? Aha. Oh Dear.

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2941 days ago

Baobab - when is the placing suckers?

Calling AIM listed wannabee iron miner Baobab Resources (BAO) as a sell at 35.75p on February 4th and again on 29.125p on 21st February managed to generate stacks of abuse on the Bulletin Board but with the shares at 13.625p today I have been 110% vindicated. The point is that this company has sod all cash and high bills and that a placing is needed. Fast. The shares remain a sell until its now near critical financing issues are addressed. To both the Bulletin Board Morons and the fellows who run Baobab I ask how is the placing going?

Incidentally Lucian Miers is short of this stock and you can see him explain why in his UK Investor Presentation here.

 

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2944 days ago

Arian Silver Statement – What a load of cobblers

AIM and TSX listed Arian Silver (AGQ) notes that its shares have been falling like a stone and has issued a statement designed to reassure investors.

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2948 days ago

Bullabulling Share Offer Flops – Good: this company is a joke & is toast by August

Bullabulling (BGL) is the sort of disgrace of a mining junior that AIM could well do without. It is all too typical of the sort of Aussie junior that dual lists both in the land of high culture and over here.  It has today ‘fessed up that its open offer to shareholders has, despite some horrifically aggressive share promotion, flopped and this company should be toast before the end of the cricket season. Its shares have slumped by 11% to 3p after today’s debacle but that still capitalises this POS at £10.5 million. My target price is 0.1p by September.

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2949 days ago

Centamin – And now there are two reasons to sell at 39p: target price 25p

Reasons to be bearish part 2. The first reason to sell Centamin (CEY) was political – it operates in Egypt where there is zero long term visibility for businesses since the regime change. But there is now a fundamental reason to offload the stock pronto – the maths simply do not stack up. And I warn you that there are some big broker downgrades on the way.

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2969 days ago

Centamin Calendar 2012 results good but broker downgrades anyway

Centamin (CEY) has this week announced its calendar 2012 results. There is no doubt that the numbers were impressive. I write that as a persistent bear of the stock. But credit where credit is due – Josef El Raghy and his team did well in difficult conditions. However…

Before looking forwards, I look back. Centamin produced 262,828 oz of gold – an increase on 2011 despite the operational difficulties experience in the autumn as a direct result of the changing political landscape in Egypt. That production generated revenue of $426.1 million and an EBITDA of $233.3 million, resulting in a profit after tax of $232.15 million. However, the company did have an exceptional charge of $33.1 million which reduced the headline profit to $199.038 million. However even that number surpassed the $193.99 million recorded in 2011. It was another record year for Centamin.

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2972 days ago

Shanta – time to call it quits?

Shares in AIM listed Tanzania gold miner Shanta Gold (LSE:SHG) have not covered me in glory. It has not been a disastrous share tip but it would be a lie to say that the stock has flown. I did have hopes of lift off as the shares reached 24p in January but today they sit at 18.375p, a stock becalmed in a sector unloved. Does that mean that it is time to call it quits?

Steve Moore and I first recommended these shares at 21.5p in July 2011 back in our days on t1ps.com and the journey since has been far from smooth. My first post tips analysis was still a bullish one and much of what I said then still stands today – you can see that analysis here.

Admittedly

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2973 days ago

Chaarat Gold – On balance positive update but read the small print

AIM listed wannabee gold miner Chaarat Gold (LSE:CGH) has issued an update on its operations in the Kyrgyz Republic which is – on balance – very encouraging but hidden at the bottom of the text are a couple of minor blemishes. On balance it supports the very strong buy case but it is worth reading the whole statement.

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2976 days ago

Aureus Mining – Not Out but Certainly down

Shares in AIM and Canada listed Aureus Mining (LSE:AUE) trade higher today at 40p post the company’s 2012 results release and an update on financing for the company’s New Liberty gold project in Liberia. However, the shares are still well below the 57.25p at which I called them a post t1ps sell in November.

I wrote about the company three times in November as it was flushed out on a cash call and my detailed analysis has proven pretty much bang on the money

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2976 days ago

Centamin – Will it still own its mine in six months? – Good news or bad?

FTSE 250 listed gold miner Centamin has issued another statement updating shareholders on its legal issues in the Islamofascist Republic of Egypt where is flagship asset, the world class Sukarai gold mine is located. I have never doubted the quality of this asset, merely pointed out since the regime change in Egypt last summer that the political risks are not discounted. That remains the case at 56p today.

The statement issued yesterday reads:

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2977 days ago

Ariana could be worth 6.31p says Edison - shares now 1.425p

I have always had a soft spot for AIM listed Turkish explorer Ariana Resources (LSE:AAU). Its management team do not take the piss on salaries and battle on showing grim determination to deliver and perhaps things are starting to go the way of Kerim Sener and his team. The newsflow of late has been positive. I reprint below a research report from Edison. Okay, this is commissioned research but it stacks up.

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2978 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell on Petropavlosk: Jam Tomorrow does not pay the bills

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Petropavlosk. Sam writes...

I wrote bearishly regarding shares in Petropavlovsk (POG) on February 22nd at a then year low of 302.5p.  Since then the gold company has updated investors on growth in its resource base but it is cash flow from production that pays the bills and after a rotten two years for this sector, investors want jam today and not tomorrow.  The shares now trade at 248p.

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2978 days ago

EMED and the Great EU bank robbery

The prime focus of AIM and TSX Listed EMED Mining (LSE:EMED) is on restarting the huge Rio Tinto copper mine in Spain but it was set up in Cyprus (it initially targeted a small copper deposit there) and so lo and behold it still has some Cypriot bank exposure. And yesterday the company announced that as a result it will fall victim to the great EU bank robbery. The following explains... 

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2980 days ago

Sirius Minerals – Planning Issues

To howls of abuse I suggested that AIM listed Sirius Minerals (LSE:SXX) was a slam dunk sell at 27.75p on the day it submitted planning applications for its Potash mining project on the North York Moors. My reasons were multiple. Its ability to gain planning permission was a side issue although an RNS last week makes for interesting reading. The shares are now 24p.

It seems that the North York Moors Planning Authority has asked for extra information in order that it can determine the planning application. Sirius will provide this with a view to still getting a decision by May 21st. But there is another potential fly or two in the ointment:

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2981 days ago

Norseman Gold – Another milestone reached: getting there

Another week and another milestone has been reached for Norseman Gold (LSE:NGL). We are not yet at the point where we can say that the shares will return to AIM but we are getting closer. Let me explain.

As you may well remember Norseman – one of my moist disastrous share tips in a 25 year career – announced last autumn that it was putting its operating subsidiary into the hands of the administrator. This was not the same as the parent company going into administration as I explained in detail to those who assumed this was a write-off HERE

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2982 days ago

Centamin output guidance published - sell

Egypt based FTSE 250 listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) yesterday gave guidance for 2013 output – that it does so 2 weeks ahead of the publication of 2012 results is a bit odd. Is it a case of getting the bad news out ahead of the next bad news...the results.

The company states that it expects to produce 320,000 ounces of gold this calendar year at a cash cost ( assuming no fuel subsidies) of $700. That would be a 22% increase on 2012 output which is not surprising given that a range of political difficulties scarred 2012 numbers. Of course Centamin assumes that these difficulties (or new ones) will not reoccur. Given the newsflow from the increasingly Islamofascist republic of Egypt, I am not so sure of that. The company reaffirms that it expects output to increase to 450,000-500,000 oz from 2015 onwards. Inshallah.

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2983 days ago

Anglesey Mining – Comment on Labrador Tata link up

Shares in fully listed mining group Anglesey (LSE:LIM) have bounced sharply to 9.375p, valuing it at £15 million, on the back of news that TSX listed Labrador Iron Mines in which it holds a 15% stake has signed a link up with Indian giant Tata. LIM’s shares have bounced on the move to 75 cents valuing the Anglesey holding at just over £9 million. So is this the start of a big rebound.

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2984 days ago

Kenmare Results: Bull vs Bear

Kenmare Resources (KMR) is a company from Ireland that I have followed for ages. The company has from nothing managed to build a world class ilmenite mine at Mona in Mozambique. This was a penny stock. It is now , at 33p capitalised at £868 million and a member of the FTSE 250 Index. It has just released results for the year to 31st December 2012 which – following trading statements (the nice way of referring to profits warnings) were in line with guidance. But, there is always a but with Kenmare.

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2985 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on silver play Hochschild - was I wrong?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Hochschild Mining. Sam writes...

It has not been the greatest call of my career.  I rated shares in silver miner Hochschild Mining (HOC) as a buy here at 424.9p less than two months ago.  The shares now stand at 352p and self-evidently there is a bit of egg on my face.  Was my call wrong?  Are the shares even cheaper today?

To be fair to myself one of the attractions of buying this company is that it is the only serious, well managed pure silver producer listed in London.  That still remains the case.  Those of us who are long term silver bulls can buy the stock and as silver increases sharply during the next few years we will inevitably gain.  However we must accept that there will be periods when the silver price retraces during its long term uptrend and Hochschild shares will retrace in line with that.  Day one of those silver price retracements occurred just after I published that buy tip.

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2989 days ago

Minera IRL - is it worth hanging on for the bounce?

Shares in AIM, Canada and Peru listed Minera IRL (LSE:MIRL) commenced 2013 at more than 50p but currently trade down at 43p – capitalising this Latin America focused gold miner at just below £75 million. This has not been one of my greatest tip from my t1ps.com days (I tipped it at 69p) so what to do now.

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2992 days ago

Orosur Mining – a speculative buy?

Orosur Mining (LSE:OMI), the AIM and Canada listed, South America focused gold producer and explorer much beloved by my fat friend Evil Knievil, last month announced the completion of a development that “will enable the company to access higher grade transverse stope ore at Arenal Deeps for the first time in the last quarter of the financial year ending 31 May 2013”. That seems like good news yet the shares now trade at lows not seen since 2010 – a current 32.125p share price capitalising the company at little more than £25 million.

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2997 days ago

Medusa Mining Buy at 300p – target 400p

London and Australia-listed, Philippines-focused gold producer Medusa Mining (LSE: MML) is a top multi-bagging share tip from my past life at t1ps and I commented that I again thought the shares were cheap in an article last month. Following recent interim results, the following is my current take…

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2998 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Petra Diamonds

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Petra Diamonds. Sam writes…

Shares in Petra Diamonds (PDL) have risen since the publication of results for the six months to December 31st on 25th February. Supporters point to upbeat comments about the future by CEO Johan Dippenaar and to the fact that fairly “ordinary “ numbers were well flagged in an end January trading statement. “Look to the future” we are told but at 118p the company is capitalised at £602 million and is the future that sparkling? .

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3004 days ago

Bellzone ..Good News but the shares are down? A problem?

Two months ago shares in Bellzone Mining (BZM) were steaming ahead as all iron ore stocks made stellar on hopes on a surge in Chinese demand and a consequent increase in iron ore prices during 2013. Some of that euphoria has now evaporated and with Bellzone itself serving up mixed news the shares have slipped by 2p to 14p since the start of the year. This still values the company at £102 million but to lose 12.5% of your market value in less than seven weeks is a little un-nerving. So is it time to cut and run?

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3004 days ago

Baobab: Two Releases on Tete and the shares slide – So when’s the placing? Sell.

I managed to make even more friends in the Bulletin Board Moron community on 4th February when I explained why anyone with half a brain cell should short Baobab Resources (LSE:BAO) at 35.75p. Since then the company has issued 2 RNS releases about its flagship Tete study blathering on with all the usual guff and telephone numbers. Yet the shares are this morning at 29.125p. Oops looks like I was right and the Bulletin Board Morons wrong. Again. So what’s new pussycat? …. There is a placing on the way….You can smell it.

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3005 days ago

Norseman Gold – Well It is not Over yet

There were those who wrote AIM and ASX listed gold miner Norseman Gold (LSE:NGL) off as an investment. That may still prove to be accurate. This has been a sorry tale and one which has made many of us, myself included, look like total prats. But we are not at write-off as yet as a statement from the gold mining stock of 20th February made clear.

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3006 days ago

EMED Mining: New technical report, target price cut and house broker flags that it will follow – shares still a buy

Landing on my desk on 18th February is a note on EMED (EMED) , the company planning to bring the Rio Tinto copper mine in Spain back to life, prepared by its house broker Fox Davies. The house or “shop” is meant to be closer than anyone to a quoted company and thus its take on a new technical report on Rio Tinto is interesting, if not entirely bullish.

The company announced that independent technical expert Behre Dolbear, has completed an updated NI 43-101 Technical Report on the Company’s Rio Tinto Copper Project. That is in the public domain. The bad news from the report comes in three forms:

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3006 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kryso Resources - Project Delay – Share price overreacts – a buying opportunity

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Kryso Resources. Having spoken to Kryso CEO Craig Brown yesterday I agree with Sam’s conclusion. Sam writes…

Shares in Kryso Resources (KYS) are off by 7% today after it announced that it would not complete the construction of its Pakrut gold mine in Tajikistan by March 2014 as previously scheduled and that a new completion date would be announced “in due course”. The company has spoken and the market has over-reacted.

The project has been delayed by a few months but work is now on track albeit a few months behind schedule. There is even the possibility of a catch up occurring if additional resources are brought in. The delay (which will be just a few months) does not create any cashflow issues for Kryso; and for a mine with a 14 year estimated life (and it could be longer) a delay of three or four months really does not make a jot of difference to any DCF valuation. The fact that Kryso operates in Tajikistan which some might consider a more exotic location might add to the way that investors have been un-nerved but I view this as a buying opportunity.

The maths are not complex

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3007 days ago

Sirius Minerals Cash Position – Just do the maths – Share Placing ahead DESPITE RNS denials

I seem to have rather riled Sirius Minerals (LSE:SXX ) with a suggestion last week that it urgently need to issue equity. The company has issued a statement today which says that “ The Directors of Sirius Minerals Plc, the globally diversified potash development group, would like to correct current misinformation about the Company’s financing plans for the York Potash Project. As at 31 January 2013, the Company had a cash balance of GBP24 million and no immediate plans for a placement of shares.

The development of the world-class York Potash Project will require multiple financings and these will be carried out when required, when opportunities present themselves and always with the best value to shareholders in mind.”

Ooooh er missus. Whatever you say.

Now let’s look at the facts.

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3007 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on African Barrick

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on gold miner African Barrick, a company I know little about. Sam writes…

I have written twice about African Barrick (ABG) here in the past six weeks and both times recommended the shares as having long term attractions on a fundamental basis at 355p, notwithstanding the withdrawal of bid approaches around Christmas. Following the publication of full year numbers on 13th February the shares trade at 295p which begs the question of whether it is time to admit that I was wrong?

I am not hiding from my previous buy tip. You can find it

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3009 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Anglo American the writedowns are only just starting - Sell!

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on the Anglo American. It is a compelling read and not the sort of analysis you get in a broker note. Good stuff Sam.

Results from Anglo American (AAL) today are a handful. In a 40 page statement you have to wade through a lot of paperwork to find the salient points. Perhaps when you are reporting a headline loss of $1.49 billion – your first loss in a decade – you really are not that minded to make life easy for commentators., but this will not be the last headline loss, whatever the company says and the shares – at £20.47 – remain materially overvalued.

The results for calendar 2012 are terrible, no wonder Cynthia Carroll stood down as CEO. The net loss for 2011 compared to a net profit of $6.17 billion in 2011. If one strips out exceptional items the underlying profit was $6.16 billion – that was still a fall of 44% on 2011 with the company blaming this largely on lower metals prices.

What pushed the company into the red were a series of writedowns

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3011 days ago

EMED: On the Cusp of Delivery

While many base metals stocks have pushed ahead sharply during the past few weeks on the back of hopes of a rebound in Chinese demand, AIM and TSX listed EMED (EMED) has made steady gains on the basis that its agonisingly protracted attempts to restart production and it Spanish Rio Tinto copper mine will finally get the requisite regulatory clearance. The most recent quarterly statement (on January 16th) indicated that all was on track and that has seen the shares move ahead to 12.75p, valuing the company at £164 million. However, I still expect the shares to treble from here on a two year view.

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3011 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Pan African is a buy

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Pan African Resources. For what it is worth I agree with his conclusion!

South African gold miner Pan African Resources (PAF) has reported its results for the six months to 31 December 2012 and they are somewhat disappointing but do not affect the strong long term buy case. The shares have dipped to 18.75p on the numbers which makes for an attractive entry point.

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3012 days ago

Sirius Minerals: Delays and Departures: sell ahead of cash call

A raft of announcements have been made by Sirius Minerals (SXX) today but amid the verbage the clear drift is not positive. The shares are off – at 25.25p – but the company is still valued at £339 million. That simply cannot be justified.I did suggest that holders at least top slice on January 31st at 27.75p as bulletin board frothed with excitement on news that the company had submitted a planning application for its Potash mine on the North York Moors.

Following today’s news my stance is downgraded to a plain sell

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3018 days ago

GMA Resources – Reversal and Share Price Over-reaction: Lucian Miers right to be short

AIM listed GMA Resources (GMA) has just returned from an eight month suspension. A cash shell (with not a lot of cash) following the failure of its last hydrocarbon business venture it has now announced a RTO which will see it owning 90% of two mining assets in Kazakhstan. The shares returned from suspension on February 5th and promptly soared to 0.9p which in effect valued the business at £700 million. That forced the company to issue a statement re-explaining its share structure – in effect saying its stock was overvalued. The shares still trade at 0.24p but are still at least 60% overvalued.

The company plans a 500 for 1 share consolidation. Thus existing shareholders will post consolidation own 1.236 million shares. The vendors of the Kazakh assets will be issued with 148 million shares which on the basis of the agreed RTO values the transaction at £40 million. But on the basis of the current share price the market capitalisation post issue is actually £184 million.

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3018 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Afferro Mining – One bidder out, no reason to sell

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a tip from TradingResearch Point on Afferro.

Shares in AIM and TSX listed African mine developer Afferro Mining (AFF) fell by 5p at 74.5p today on news that one potential bidder for the company is now out of the running. The market never likes such news but it overlooks the fact that there are still a number of corporate discussions still ongoing but, perhaps more importantly, that the shares are fundamentally cheap. I view this as a buying opportunity

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3020 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell keep selling Antofagasta

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share sell tip from TradingResearch Point on Antofagasta. I happen to agree with his conclusion.

A calendar 2012 trading statement published on January 30th by FTSE 100 listed Chilean copper miner Antofagasta (ANTO) did not disappoint us bears. If anything it gave us further encouragement. It is not just that the 2012 numbers were mildly disappointing but that the 2013 guidance is very weak and with the macro outlook for copper unhelpful this is not going to be a good year for the company. Having advised selling at 1328p on January 10th the stance is unchanged now, even though the shares have already fallen back to 1127p.

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3021 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Kenmare Resources Trading Update

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Ireland’s Kenmare Resources. I happen to agree with his conclusion.

Fully listed Irish titanium minerals miner Kenmare Resources (KMR) has released a calendar 2012 trading statement which confirms some information (not all of it good) that had seeped into the market via company presentations earlier in January. However it also indicates that many of the problems encountered in 2012 have now been resolved, that no equity needs to be issued and gives real hope that, at last, the company is on a clear recovery and growth path.

In terms of the financials, Kenmare reports that 2012 revenues increased by 40% to $234.5 million as total, with total production from its Moma Titanium producing mine in Mozambique coming in at 772,000 tonnes

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3021 days ago

Baobab Resources – Good News in the Price, follow Lucian Miers and sell

After many years of scratching around Southern Africa for a project with real prospects AIM listed Boabab (BAO) appears to have found something that could be a winner in the form of the Tete pig iron/vanadium/titanium target in Mozambique. With iron ore stocks all rallying sharply in the past two or three months on the back of hopes of resurgence in Chinese demand, Baobab shares have raced ahead to 35.75p which values this company at £106 million. This is a stock that has now got far ahead of its fundamental value and I can reveal that last week well known bear raider Lucian Miers opened up a short. That is a good call which you should follow.

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3022 days ago

Exclusive & Explosive Video Interview with Andrew Bell of Red Rock Resources

Andrew Bell and his Red Rock Resources (LSE:RRR) mining investment company have admirers and detractors. We all do. I met up with him last week to discuss various points about Red Rock. I covered both operational matters and also allegations put to me in email and on posted on Bulletin Boards. To date the company has not responded with its side of the story but Bell has gone on the record in this webcast to deal with the allegations made and the motivation of some of his critics. This is pretty explosive stuff.

As to Red Rock’s shares and are they cheap? It strikes me that Jupiter Mines in Oz is a pretty cheap stock and plausibly Red Rick could soon trade at a discount to the value of its Jupiter shares. If Greenland is sold and Colombia is – as Bell indicates in the interview – cash generative then Red Rock would have trading appeal. I realise there are three IFs in there but I think you can see how a bull case could be made.

On the Agenda

1. Jupiter
2. Colombia
3. Greenland
4. Kenya
5. Allegations made against Red Rock & Bell by Mr Gary Carp and associates.

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3024 days ago

Medusa Mining output guidance pared – a reason to sell?

I commented previously on London and Australia-listed, Philippines-focused gold producer Medusa Mining (MML) earlier this month. Earlier this week the shares suffered a bit of a setback on the company’s publication of its quarterly activity report (to end December 2012) which has spooked some investors into selling. On balance that is, in my view, a mistake.

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3025 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Petra Diamonds

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Petra Diamonds. I happen to agree with his conclusion. In fact I’d be more damning.

Mining in South Africa is clearly not easy – something a trading statement from LSE listed Petra Diamonds (PDL) makes explicitly clear. The numbers for the six months to December 31st will be a bit disappointing but, worse, Petra guided investors to reduce their expectations for the year to June 30th. The shares now trade about 10% ahead of 12 month lows at 110p valuing Petra at £562 million but it appears hard to judge this company as the investor’s best friend at this level.

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3026 days ago

Highland Gold Full Year Trading Statement: Buy at 114.5p target 200p

AIM-listed, Russia producing gold miner Highland Gold (HGM) has published a calendar 2012 trading update which reads very well. There was an 18% increase in group wide production to a record 216,885 ounces of gold and gold equivalents, exceeding guidance estimates of 200,000-215,000 ounces. The shares have ticked up to 114.5p on the news capitalising the company at £372.5 million. I wrote a buy share tip, at 91p, shortly before Christmas so I am already partially vindicated. But this re-rating has a lot further to go.

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3027 days ago

Aquarius Platinum Quarterlies: Reiterate Buy at 62.5p target price 80p

On Christmas Eve I noted that there looked to be value in shares in main market listed Aquarius Platinum (AQP) at 55p. Earlier this month the shares hit more than 75p but currently trade at 62.25p, capitalising the company at £296 million, following the announcement today of production results for the quarter ended 31st December 2012. So is it time to bank gains and sell?

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3028 days ago

Guest post Sam Bottell: Nordgold – 2013 the recovery year

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Nordgold

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3032 days ago

Amara: Weak numbers but a good investment. But not good enough

Dual AIM and TSX (Canada) listed West African focused gold mining company, Amara Mining (AMA) has announced 2012 production results for its Kalsaka mine in Burkina Faso ahead of a full-year results announcement scheduled for 27th March. I commented positively on the company in November and the following updates my view after this latest news from the company…

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3032 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Buy African Barrick Gold

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on African Barrick Gold.

African Barrick Gold (ABG) has in the past week updated investors with full year and fourth quarter production numbers – perhaps as critically it has secured a $142 million loan package in order to dramatically increase output from its Bulyanhulu mine which should drive its organic growth. The 2012 numbers were not that impressive and with investors already spooked by the collapse of a takeover approach from China National GoldCorporation the shares have retreated to 355p at a time when most gold mid caps have moved ahead sharply. I believe the market has over-reacted.

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3035 days ago

Edison Increases Target Price on Pan African from 20.77p to 29.83p – the shares at 21p are a buy

Heck I know that this is commissioned research (i.e. paid for by the company) but analyst Charlie Gibson might be incredibly posh but he is no fool. He does know what he is talking about. And thus when I read his research I generally seem to think that his sums stack up. Today comes a note on Pan African Resources (LSE:PAF) in which Charlie increases his target price from 20.77p to 29.83p in light of the purchase of Evander. With the shares now at 21p, it is worth taking a look because Charlie also predicts a dividend of at least 0.34p per share for the year to June 30th 2013 – thus there is still upside of 43.66% on offer if he is right. And I do think he is right.

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3035 days ago

VSA: Buy Highland Gold at 106.75p – target price 175p

It is not often that I comment on broker’s notes as most are pretty worthless. Normally I post comment if I disagree violently or agree strongly. Which brings me to the VSA Resources note out today on Russian gold producer Highland Gold (LSE:HGM). The problem with gold is that it is usually found in dodgy places, Africa or Russia. Neither is exactly East Surrey in terms of political stability. VSA engaged in this debate. It writes:

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3039 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Pan African Resources (PAF) – Buy at 18p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Pan African where he is even more bullish than I am. I hope he is correct.

It is not often that you see a mining mid cap or junior announce a rights issue – the norm these days is a placing at a deep discount, but as part of its recent fund raise, LSE and JSE listed Pan African Resources (PAF) did just that. On 14th January the company announced that the offer (at 14p) has been 175% subscribed for. Given that the shares had moved ahead to 18p after the rights issue was announced I suppose that is not surprising but that Pan African has such widespread support ( and has seen its shares prosper) amid the gold stock bloodbath of 2012 is no mean feat. This was a penny stock going nowhere just a few years ago, so is there market excitement behind it now? I would argue not

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3040 days ago

Guest post: Sam Bottell - African Barrick Gold – Takeover disappointment, more to come?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip & perhaps breaking news from him from TradingResearch Point covering an interesting enough gold stock.

Takeover talks do not always end with happiness all round. That is a lesson that shareholders in African Barrick Gold (ABG) have learned to their cost in recent days. On 16th August the company announced that, in effect, it was in takeover talks with China National GoldGroup Corporation. The shares rocketed to 492p. On 8th January the company said that talks were off. The share price is now 355p valuing the company at £1.46 billion. Is it worth hanging on to the shares on a fundamental basis?

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3040 days ago

Medusa Mining: Is it time to buy again?

London and Australia listed Philippines gold producer, Medusa Mining (MML) is a top recommendation from my past. I recommended the shares on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and left in September 2012 to establish the Nifty Fifty, at 49p in August 2008 and recommended selling at 426.5p in December 2010. I noted then that a higher share price still could be achieved but that a re-appraisal of political risk and the company – as a low-cost producer – being set to benefit less in terms of operational gearing from a rising gold price than others had led me to consider the risk/reward trade-off more attractive elsewhere in the sector. The shares would go on to hit 560p in 2011 but have subsequently fallen back to trade at a current 350p share price. Perhaps it is time to buy back in?

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3041 days ago

Aquarius Platinum – Up, up and away

I wrote a strong buy note on Aquarius Platinum (LSE:AQP)on Christmas Eve urging investors to buy at 55p. Well ho, ho, ho and a Merry Christmas to you all. I hope that you filled your stockings. I mean boots with that hot share tip. The shares are now 71.75p Why? Thank Anglo American (LSE:AAL) which today announced that it was mothballing some of its platinum output. The platinum price has already rallied strongly since Christmas ( ho, ho, ho once again) and this news is very positive indeed.

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3041 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kenmare Resources – Equity Placing on the Way?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip & perhaps breaking news from him from TradingResearch Point covering a company from the old country ( er…Ireland)

I argued a few days ago that shares in Kenmare Resources (KMR) were good value but I now flag up a minor caveat – there appears to be a risk of an equity placing. A secondary caveat is that Kenmare appears to have issued a minor profits warning without actually publishing an RNS – it merely guided down expectation via an analyst’s presentation. That is not quite cricket but does this alter the investment case materially?

The presentation flags up that there has been a one month delay in the start of commissioning the Moma mine expansion project – that was due to kick off in December. In the greater scheme of things for a mine with a 140 year life I can live with that but it is another nuisance that that has plagued Kenmare over many years.

More critically, there is an update on the company’s outlook for 2013.

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3046 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Antofagasta: Two reasons to sell now at 1323p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

I tend to agree with the conclusion

While many small cap miners struggled in 2012 both operationally and as a result of negative investor sentiment, through a malign market, the disappointments were not necessarily confined to the small fish. With a market cap of £13.072 billion, Antofagasta is a company that packs a punch but its size doesn’t necessarily mean it’s immune to operational setbacks. But it also faces a major macro negative. The shares are a sell at 1328p and here is why.

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3047 days ago

Centamin Publishes Record Q4 Results but that still leaves it as a sell

Centamin (CEY), the London and Canada listed gold miner operating in Egypt, has announced record quarterly gold production of 85,543 ounces for the period closing December 31st 2012 – taking full year production to 262,958 ounces, a 30% increase on 2011 and above guidance of 250,000 ounces. The shares have responded by currently trading just over 5.5p higher at 49.75p, capitalising the company at just under £550 million. The company emphasises the numbers as “particularly pleasing given the challenges faced during the year” but the announcement also makes clear that challenges remain. The following details my current view…

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3050 days ago

Centamin – Deafening Silence on whether it is selling gold or not

I flagged up on the third of January an explicit allegation that fully listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) was not in fact selling any gold. The allegation was originally not made by an attention seeking share commentator (i.e. me) but by a well regard research analyst in a published note distributed by a respected London broker, viz Fox Davies. If the allegation is true then the implications for short term cashflow/ working capital at Centamin are profound. The response from Centamin? Er…

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3052 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Kenmare Own Goals compounded in an unloved sector but is the sell off overdone?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

As it happens I agree with his conclusion.

Like most mid cap mining stocks, Kenmare Resources (KMR) had a fairly rough 2012, its share price diving from 60p in the spring to 35p today. In part this is a cork on the wave effect: if a sector is thoroughly unloved as mining stocks were last year then it is hard to buck that trend. However, Kenmare was also hit by falling prices of the titanium it produces in Mozambique and by a continuation of its habit of scoring own goals. 2013 should see the start of a mammoth ramp up in output and cashflow generated and so is now a good time to back this Ireland based company?

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3053 days ago

Centamin: Is it exporting gold or not?

On 20th December fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) announced that “following the recently-announced export of gold and resumption of fuel supply, operations have now resumed at Sukari.” The market read this as meaning that output and cashflow generation was now back on track. The shares have thus rallied to 39.3p. But this morning, top broker Fox Davies has published a research report stating “We also understand that gold exports have again been suspended.” Well have they? A RNS statement from Centamin is called for pretty urgently. This is a critical matter but the answer does not matter but the episode reminds us of why the shares are a sell.

The Fox Davies note is pretty damning and I reprint a critical section:

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3053 days ago

Bellzone Mining – Bell Ends?

Sometimes you do wonder about some of the folks running AIM listed companies. Is there some sort of secret sweepstake CEO’s hold each year to see who can act like the biggest knob with a press release that sends investors the wrong way. If so, AIM listed Bellzone Mining (LSE: BZM) put in a strong late run with its announcement of 27th December in which it boasted of its first shipment of iron ore from Guinea. It stated that it was “delighted to announce that the first shipment of iron ore from the 50:50 Forecariah joint venture operation in the Republic of Guinea, West Africa was despatched on 26 December 2012. The Company will issue a more detailed statement on January 3, 2013.” And today? Er……

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3054 days ago

Bellzone Mining: Good News & Hot sector but are the shares ahead of themselves?

Suddenly the price of Iron ore has picked up, spurred by a recovery in Chinese Demand. Iron ore stocks have responded with a number showing sharp gains in the past month. Among the winners is Anglesey Mining (AYM) but also Bellzone (BZM) which has assisted its cause with news on both of its projects in the West African country of Guinea. The Bellzone share price has pushed ahead by 3p to 16p over the past month valuing the company at £117 million but some brokers reckon that it could still double from mere. There is a bear case as well as a bull case.

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3055 days ago

Guest post from Sam Bottell: Afferro Mining – Buy for the bid or on fundamentals?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

AIM listed Afferro Mining (AFF) is a West African focused iron ore play. With a solid net cash position and an attractive portfolio of assets one can make a solid case for buying the shares on fundamentals, a case strengthened by the recent recovery in the iron price. But there is also a corporate angle with the company admitting just before Christmas that it can “confirm that it is in discussions with multiple parties which may or may not lead to a strategic investment or a proposal to acquire the outstanding shares of the Company.” Not surprisingly the shares have rallied from a year low of around 40p in the second quarter to a share price today of 101.25p today, valuing it at £106 million. But arguably there is more to come.

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3056 days ago

My Fifth 2013 tip of the year ( of 7) is now live: a blue riband UK tech play for New Year's Eve

It is New Year’s Eve and my FIFTH share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) is now live ( here).

There are 2 more tips of the year 2013 to come

On 30th December my FOURTH share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) went live ( here).

On 29th December my 3rd share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) went live ( here).

On 28th December I published my second share tip of the year ( here).

The day before I published my first share tip of the year ( here).

On Boxing Day I published my macro-economic assumptions for 2013.

The next three tips will be published in various places. This article will be updated as each goes live with a link. And I shall send out a twitter alert. That is apart from the 7th tip of the year which will be the first tip published on my new venture with ADVFN – Onefreesharetip.com – it will go out at 9 AM on the 2nd of January.

The only way to receive that tip in your email is to register HERE at OneFreesharetip.com .

And if you do, you will then get one free share tip each and every working day from an all star panel of around 20 share tipsters and commentators.

So you might as well join up anyway. .

Go on, you know it makes senes

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3058 days ago

Central Asia Metals: Delivery in 2012, cash return in 2013

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite and oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

On AIM among mining stocks the norm appears to be for projects to be delayed, to run over budget and for companies to be constantly issuing shares to raise cash to keep going as a result. Central Asia Metals (CAML) bucks all three trends. Perhaps that is why whilst most mining shares fell sharply during 2012, Central’s share price of 122.5p is just 1p below the year high and values the company at £105.7 million. The company is now engaged in a material return of capital to investors via buybacks and dividends that will more than underpin the current level – indeed I suspect that this stock could trade at 150p within a year and here is why.

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3060 days ago

When will Great Western Mining run out of cash?

ave written before about AIM Listed Ireland based Great Western Mining (LSE:GWMO) noting that it shares far too many connections with mega joke valuation company US Oil & Gas (USOP). I note that today shares in Great Western are off by 16% at 2p valuing the company at £1.3 million. It doubt very much that it is worth that much. To me the only question is when shareholders will be put out of their misery by this company running out of cash. Its accounts are presented in an “interesting” manner and so long suffering suckers, oops, I meant shareholders may not have realised how grim the picture is.

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3063 days ago

Aquarius Platinum – A Biblical Set of Plagues survived – now the recovery?

have tipped fully listed ( and JSE listed) Aquarius Platinum (AQP) three times in my life: once at Red Hot Penny Shares and twice at t1ps.com. Each time we have sold and booked handsome gains but the past 12 months have seen the company have to weather a series of plagues reminiscent of a biblical torment. If its own South African workers were not on strike, workers at neighbouring mines were out and engaging in secondary picketing. The prices of Platinum Group Metals fell sharply (to around $1100 for a PGM basket) and meanwhile negotiations on the sale of half of its Zimbabwean operation to local Black Economic Empowerment groups dragged on. After such an annus hornbills, long serving CEO Stuart Murray stepped down as CEO and the share price is now 55p, having been 45p three years ago. But could 2013 be a year of recovery for this company which is still valued at £260 million?

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3068 days ago

Norseman Gold – Company Update

Since the shares remain suspended there was no rush to comment on the news from AIM and ASX listed Norseman Gold (LSE:NGL) which came out on Friday 14th December. It does not read well but having spoken to the company’s advisors it is not a write off yet. As I shall explain below.

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3069 days ago

Anglesey Mining – Labrador Update: Speculative Buy

I previously commented on fully-listed Anglesey Mining (LSE: AYM) late last month – concluding that the shares, at just over 7p, were not for the risk-averse, but that the upside potential was sufficient for me to rate them a ‘speculative buy’. They had previously soared from the 11.75p at which I recommended them in October 2009 on t1ps – the website I founded in 2000 and edited until leaving this September to set up the Nifty Fifty offering – but fell all of the way back to sub 7p as the company’s current key value driver, Canada-listed Labrador Iron Mines, was heavily impacted by very significant falls in the iron ore price. Now with an 8.5p share price and following news today that Labrador has, in 2012, successfully completed its largest ever exploration programme, the following takes a renewed look at the Anglesey Mining investment proposition…

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3073 days ago

Alexander Mining: Coming Good – Speculative Buy at 4.75p

AIM Listed Alexander Mining (LSE:AXM) has not been one of my better tips from my 12 years at t1ps. Recommended at 6.625p in June 2008 the shares are now 4.75p. I was urged by some former colleagues to dump the stock at a 2p share price in the summer but (unlike them) I bothered to speak to the management. The company is now starting to deliver ( at last) and there is now a growing case for rating the shares as a buy.

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3079 days ago

Orosur Mining - a gold winner so far for me and set to glisten

Orosur Mining (LSE OMI) is an AIM and Canada listed gold producer, shares in which I initially recommended as a share tip at 24.25p in May 2010 on t1ps.com – the website I founded in 2000 but departed from in September – and subsequently updated on here last month. On Friday the company released a production update which I review in the following against a backdrop of a 37.75p share price

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3080 days ago

Buy Amara Mining at 65p – worth 99p to 124p says top broker Ocean Equities

Top broker Ocean Securities has published a buy note on Amara Mining (LSE:AMA) in which it suggests that investors buy the shares at 65p with a target price of 99p. I long followed Amara, formerly known as Cluff Gold on t1ps.com and I also regard the shares as very cheap. As I shall explain below.

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3084 days ago

Pan African Resources Evander purchase update

AIM-listed, South Africa-focussed precious metals miner Pan African Resources (LSE:PAF) has today updated investors on the ongoing process for its prospective Rand1.5 billion (circa. £110 million) acquisition of Evander Gold Mines Ltd. At a current 20.75p share price, capitalising the company at just over £300 million (£378 million adjusting for a prospective rights issue), Pan African remains a big winner from my time at t1ps – the website I founded but departed in September – where I first recommended the shares in November 2005 at a share price of 2.6875p. Surely even barking mad Bulletin Board loon Bob Burnard accepts that was a good share tip? The following reviews the current position here…

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3084 days ago

Minera Drilling News – A Golden Prospect?

AIM, Canada and Peru-listed Latin American gold miner, Minera (LSE MIRL) has followed last week’s publication of a feasibility study on its Ollachea project in Peru with an announcement that it has awarded a contract to begin drilling extensions of the Ollachea ore bodies from underground. This is a company I followed for a couple of years on t1ps – the website I founded but departed in September – and initiated coverage post-t1ps last month, suggesting, with the shares then at 50.25p, it not a bad move to add a few shares in the company to a gold portfolio at those levels. With the share price now 54.5p, the following reviews today’s announcement…

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3084 days ago

Gem Diamonds Disposal – Very Confusing

Maybe I am just thick but today’s news from AIM listed mining stock Gem Diamonds (LSE:GEMD) that it is to sell its Australian diamonds mine at Ellendale has me utterly baffled. You see the price tag just bears no relation to its balance sheet value. Needless to say it is the price tag that is far lower.

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3087 days ago

Minera: Good news from Peru – cheap but are there cheaper gold plays?

AIM, Canada and Peru-listed gold mining stock Minera IRL (LSE: MIRL) has today announced the results of a feasibility study on its Ollachea project in Peru. This is a company I have followed for a couple of years on t1ps.com and more recently on my own blog and which I have recently written about in a modestly bullish way twice – with the share price lower than it is today. The following reviews the feasibility study announcement and its implication on the current investment case…is it still a good share tip?

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3091 days ago

Fox Davies: Minera share price set to more than double on news of resource upgrade?

On 21st November AM and TSX listed gold miner Minera IRL (MIRL) announced a material upgrade to its resource estimate for the Don Nicolas project in Argentina. The Measured and Indicated Resources have been increased by 23% to 468,000 ounces of gold. The economic effect of this is to increase the life of the mine estimate, something assisted by a 14% increased in the inferred resource estimate, to 165,000 ounces of gold. This has prompted broker Fox Davies to set a target price for the shares (56p today) of 116p.I do not entirely disagree with its analysis and here is why.

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3091 days ago

Anglesey Mining - Recovery Play or Dog to Shoot?

I recommended shares in fully-listed Anglesey Mining (AYM) on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and edited until leaving this September to set up the Nifty Fifty. That share tip was at 11.75p in October 2009. They subsequently raced ahead and I am kicking myself for, particularly in 2011, not banking a very significant profit. Today the shares trade down at just over 7p as the company’s current key value driver, Canada-listed Labrador Iron Mines in which Anglesey holds 19.73% of the shares, has been heavily impacted by very significant late Summer falls in the price of iron ore.

Having dropped 33% to below $90 per tonne (on a 62% Fe cost & freight China basis) in early September, this price has recovered to around $120 per tonne and, with Anglesey having today announced results for the six months ended 30th September 2012, the following takes a look at the outlook from here…

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3091 days ago

Centamin – Market Update Does Not sound Good say two brokers and me

Fully listed Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) has today provided a market update on its various woes and at two levels it does not sound good at all. And it is not just me saying this, it seems that some brokers agree. To hoots of Bulletin Board derision I warned folks repeatedly ( when the shares were much higher than today’s 60.2p) that Centamin was a sell. That was not because I dislike the company or have a grudge. This was a stock that I tipped on t1ps.com at 8p but told readers to sell at 134p. It is because life in Egypt has changed irrevocably and for the worse since its revolution. Those who have fallen in love with the stock seem to forget that.

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3094 days ago

Pan African: Rights Issue News - can we build on a 644% gain?

AIM-listed, South Africa-focussed gold miner Pan African Resources (PAF) is a big winner from my days at t1ps.com – the website I departed in September after twelve years. I recommended the shares there at 2.6875p in November 2005 and they currently trade at 20p a gain of 644%. The following reviews an announcement the company has made today about a c£50 million right issue and whether there remains more share price upside to come…

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3094 days ago

EMED: Broker Fox-Davies thinks shares will treble & Slovak approval

Regulatory approval for EMED (EMED): Great news we have been waiting so long for this news. But sadly this is not the final Spanish permits needed to get the giant Rio Tinto copper mine underway but news from Slovakia. Meanwhile broker Fox Davies reckons that the shares could treble from 10.625p to 32p. I think it is correct about this stock I first covered on t1ps.com. But to Slovakia first.

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3095 days ago

Ortac – Gold Site Visit in Slovak Republic: Value Play?

Ortac Resources (OTC), the AIM listed developer of a gold mine in the Slovak Republic is today hosting an analysts jolly and has announced as much via RNS. Is it worth the trip? Is there value there?

The company’s shares have like most gold juniors not exactly prospered over the past year. Back in September I reported that speculation in the Daily Telegraph about a bid approach was just wide of the mark but I hinted that there might be value at 0.58p.

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3095 days ago

Centamin: Broker Fox Davies Warns shares worth 44p if fuel subsidy discussions fail

I think that my views on fully listed Egyptian Gold miner Centamin (CEY) are well known. For me the great risk is a political one – I trust the Islamofascist Muslim Brotherhood rulers of Egypt less than I’d trust an 1970s Radio 1 DJ to do a spot of babysitting. But Fox Davies has another concern: the fuel subsidy.

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3096 days ago

Jubilee Platinum Concentrator announcement: enough to halt the share slump?

Jubilee Platinum (JLP) is a recommendation from my t1ps.com days which has far from covered me in glory – the shares currently trading barely above 2009 lows of 7.125p. An announcement today though has sent them currently more than 3% higher to 7.875p and the following reviews this…

The company has announced it has entered into an agreement to utilise the concentrator at Platinum Australia’s Smokey Hills project in South Africa – with it committed the full capacity of the concentrator for a minimum of 8 months and the parties having commenced formalising a toll processing agreement.

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3096 days ago

Minera: Don Nicolas update – worth a nibble

AIM-listed, Latin America-focussed gold miner Minera IRL (MIRL) has today announced a resource update for its Don Nicolas project in the mining-friendly Santa Cruz province of Argentina. These are shares I previously recommended on t1ps.com ( the site I founded in 2000 and edited until September this year before leaving to establish the new Nifty Fifty site) and I updated on them at 50.25p a couple of weeks ago – urging readers to buy a few. With the shares now at 56.25p, the following scribbling reviews today’s announcement from the company…

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3097 days ago

Norseman Gold – Latest Statement & Company Chat

AIM and ASX listed gold miner Norseman Gold (NGL) has, as we all know been a total disaster. But as I pointed out October 3rd, although this has been a disastrous tip for me, the game is not over yet. The company issued an update on 16th November and having enjoyed a good chat today with one of the advisory team, this is the latest.

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3097 days ago

Amara Mining (Cluff Gold) Baomahun Results Analysis

I tipped Cluff Gold (CLF) in September 2011 at 96p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and left three months ago to set up the Nifty Fifty
. Like most AIM listed gold shares Cluff has taken a beating but the shares have rallied in recent days and are now at 63.25p following the release of a new resource estimate for the Baomahun project. Those who nibbled at 58.5p the other day after I published a detailed analysis here will be feeling reasonably happy.

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3098 days ago

Chaarat Gold – Double Win News from China – a six bagger?

AIM listed Chaarat Gold (CGH) has today announced two very good pieces of news concerning possible link ups with two of the three largest gold companies in China. This is incredibly encouraging and makes the shares a pretty compelling buy. I had flagged this stock up as one to own at 21.5p on 9th October arguing then that the shares were potentially worth up to 120p. The news today should lead to both the closing of Chaarat’s small financing issue and also to a dramatic reduction in its operating costs.

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3101 days ago

Centamin – Quarterlies Good Enough But...

I have never said that Egypt-focused, London and Canada listed, gold miner Centamin (CEY) was a bad company. After all I tipped the shares at 8p on t1ps.com and got my readers to sell at 134p – not a bad result. My problem is that it operates in Egypt. That is the country next to Gaza happily assisting Hamas as the heat gets turned up in the region.

Centamin announced results for the third quarter of 2012 on Wednesday. Despite reporting record quarterly earnings, the share price has continued to decline since.

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3102 days ago

Aureus Mining Q3 Results: Still a sell?

Aureus Mining (AUE) was a poorly timed recommendation from my 12 years at t1ps.com and I recommended selling and reinvesting in more attractive gold plays at the start of this month with the shares at 57.25p. Following results for the company’s third quarter (to 30th September) released today, the shares now trade at 50p. Does this change my view?

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3103 days ago

Amara Mining (formerly Cluff Gold) Q3 Results – On Track: shares very cheap -

I tipped Cluff Gold (CLF) in September 2011 at 96p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and left three months ago. Like most AIM listed gold shares Cluff has taken a beating and the stock closed at 58.5p today after the release of third quarter numbers. To reflect a change of leadership the company has now changed its name to Amara Mining (AMA). That seems like a bit of wasteful corporate PR willy-waving to me but, ignoring that, it seems to me that the fundamentals look increasingly attractive for Cluff, sorry Amara, and that this is not reflected in the stock price. Here is why.

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3103 days ago

Ovoca Gold: Time to cut losses?

I recommended shares in AIM and Ireland listed Ovoca Gold (OVG) in my t1ps.com days (in this case in October 2010) at 30.75p. They rose to above 38p in December of that year but have consistently fallen back since – hitting 10p in June of this year. Currently trading at 12p, I apologise for a recommendation which has clearly not worked out to this point. Perhaps it is time to cut losses? Or is this a red hot penny share in the waiting?

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3103 days ago

Kryso Resources: 134% ahead – time to sell?

I initially recommended shares in AIM-listed Kryso Resources (KYS) at 13.25p in December 2007 on t1ps.com the site I founded 12 years ago and edited until this September. Today shares in the company – which is currently developing its Pakrut gold project in Tajikistan towards production – trade at 31p so we are 134% ahead. Not bad. With exploration work continuing at Pakrut and other nearby targets, is it time to bank a gain?

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3103 days ago

EMED Mining $50 million financing secured – Very Good News Indeed

EMED (EMED) the AIM and TSX listed developer of a large copper mine in Spain has today announced that it has secured a $50 million financing and an offtake deal from commodities giant Red Kite. This is a monumental step forward for EMED and really is very good news indeed. Those of you who bought the shares on October 4th after I wrote this can thank me later: “EMED has been on the point of starting to build a huge copper mine in Spain for ages. But getting the consents needed seems harder than finding a 17 year old virgin in Romford. And EMED is still not there. Hence, having tipped the shares at 14.75p back in July 2007 and with the stock at 9.625p today I look like a bit of a schmucko. Apologies for that. However, I had a long chat with CEO Harry Adams this week and I sense that we are almost there and that now would be a good time to buy.“ I hope you did, the shares are now 11.625p. But they will go much higher and here is why.

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3104 days ago

Ariana Resources: Drilling Update Good but not Good enough

I recommended AIM listed Turkey based gold mine developer Ariana Resources (AAU) on t1ps.com in August 2011 at 4.5p. The shares are now 1.425p and so clearly I have not exactly covered myself in glory. The company announced a detailed exploration update yesterday which was good but does not answer the question of whether this is a storming recovery play or just a dog to shoot. Here is why.

The exploration took place on Ariana’s Kepez West and Karakavak prospects, located along the Sindirgi Gold Corridor which also contains the Kiziltepe Sector of the Red Rabbit Gold Project.

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3104 days ago

Orosur Mining: Bank a 66% gain or double up?

I recommended shares in AIM and Canada listed Orosur Mining (OMI) – which operates the only producing gold mine in Uruguay (San Gregorio) and has additional exploration acreage in Uruguay and Chile – in May 2010 at 24.25p on t1ps.com, the website I left in September 12 years after I founded it . The shares currently trade at 40.5p, though the current levels compare to highs of 91.5p hit in early 2011. Last month the company announced results for its first fiscal 2013 quarter (to 31st August 2012) and, noting that recently “the patience and confidence of shareholders with the company has been tried”, a statement on its forward strategy. In the following I review these announcements and the Orosur investment case from here.

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3108 days ago

Vatukoula Completes Placing – It hurts but the shares are cheap

Vatukoula Gold Mines (LSE:VGM) has today announced that it has completed its botched replacement placing to raise £6.6 million gross from Chinese investor Zhongrun International Mining Co. Ltd at 33p a pop. The shares are now 32.5p. I can understand why folks are giving up on this one. Numerous placings – including this rather botched one ( Zhongrun came into replace another Chinese outfit which did not stump up its promised shekels in a 51p placing) – and numerous project delays. But I would not give up. This was a bad share tip from my t1ps.com days (I am 35% down) but I’d buy more and here is why.

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3109 days ago

Minera IRL: a gold stock to buy or sell? -

I first recommended shares in AIM listed Latin America gold miner Minera IRL (MIRL) at 69p in May 2010 on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and left this September. Despite having the safety net of current production, the shares have unfortunately not escaped the negative sentiment towards the sector in recent times – and traded at 41p as recently as early September this year. They have recovered somewhat to currently trade at 50.25p but is there more to come? Earlier this week the company released results for its third quarter ended 30th September and here I take a look at those and assess the current investment case…

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3112 days ago

Centamin – Another day and a Better RNS – Still Far More attractive Bets in Gold

And now for the latest news from Centamin (CEY) vs the Islamofascist Peoples Court in Cairo – the fully listed gold miner has issued another statement (its third) on the ruling of last Tuesday which appeared to take away its key flagship asset, the Sukari gold mine. This is the most convincing statement yet from Centamin and the shares have rallied to 74p. That is another opportunity to sell and switch into a safer play. And here is why.

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3112 days ago

Shanta Gold – Company Reaffirms Production Targets: Buy

Good news today from AIM Listed gold miner Shanta Gold (SHG) – it confirms that it is on track to hit production targets both for the fourth quarter of calendar 2012 but, far more importantly, for calendar 2013 and that will make it a hugely undervalued cash cow. At 18.875p the shares could, in my view, easily double over the next year – even without a surge in the gold price, which I still expect, and here is why.

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3113 days ago

Ariana Resources – Catch Up Lunch with CEO Kerim Sener

I recommended AIM listed Turkey based gold mine developer Ariana Resources (LSE:AAU) on t1ps.com in August 2011 at 4.5p. The shares are now 1.6p and so clearly I have not exactly covered myself in glory. I met up for lunch with CEO Kerim Sener last week for a catch up. Is this a busted flush or could it be a great recovery play for 2013. It is an interesting case study. There are three problems but three assets, let me explain

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3116 days ago

Aureus Mining – A winner or a loser in the gold stakes?

AIM listed Aureus Mining (AUE) is a gold development and exploration company, currently mainly focused on progressing its New Liberty project – which it is targeting to become the first commercial gold mine in Liberia. I apologise for having timed my recommendation poorly here – recommending the shares at 84.5p in August 2011 on t1ps.com, during my 12 year stint there. Now trading at 57.25p, I review the investment case based on the informed view of where the best place to currently be in the gold sector is…

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3116 days ago

Vatukoula – New China Placing: is it time to junk?

Another day and another placing from AIM listed gold miner Vatukoula (VGM). The shares are down to 35p and given the convoluted circumstances of this placing I can understand why some are tempted to sell and move on. Having recommended the shares at 46.5p on t1ps.com, the site I founded 12 years ago and edited until September I am not best pleased. However I would not be selling, I’d be buying and here is why.

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3116 days ago

Centamin Resumes Trading – Sell

Shares in fully listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) have resumed trading this morning and are currently 74p. One can make a legitimate case saying that its assets are worth 150p per share. But then there is the reason they were suspended on Tuesday and that is why I would sell as I explain briefly below.

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3117 days ago

Centamin: Another Day - Another pathetic RNS. Just not convincing at all

And so it came to pass on the third day that Centamin (LSE:CEY) issued another RNS insisting that the new Islamofascist regime in Egypt had not after all stolen its Sukhari gold mine. The shares remain suspended because the truth is that no-one has the foggiest idea what is going on. Not even Centamin by the sound of it. If these shares return from suspension what, I wonder, are they worth?

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3118 days ago

Archipelago Resources: Q3 results in line: buy at 62p – target price 95p plus

I first recommended AIM listed gold producer, Archipelago Resources (LSE:AR.) back in December 2004 at 27.5p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in my bedroom 12 years ago and edited until September this year. At 62p today it has not been a bad share tip. However third quarter ( to September 30th) numbers out today show that the company is very much on track for its planned ramp up in production at its flagship 95% owned Toka Tindung mine in Indonesia and I reckon that the shares are worth at least 95p. Here is why.

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3118 days ago

Centamin: You were warned - game over?

I first tipped gold miner Centamin Egypt at 8p yonks ago on t1ps.com and banked mammoth gains at 134p a few years ago. Thereafter I was repeatedly urged to get back in. I resisted. My most recent refusal game with the shares at 66.5p on 29th July. This morning the shares have been suspended at 67.5p as what I predicted (action by Egypt’s new Islamofascist regime) has come to pass. It gives me no great pleasure to write this but “I told you so.” So what next?

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3119 days ago

Hambledon Mining: a dog to shoot or a recovery play?

AIM listed gold producer Hambledon Mining (HMB) has not covered me in glory. Recommended at 3.25p in November 2008 on the site I founded and edited for 12 years until this September (t1ps.com) the shares now trade at 1.275p. Most mining juniors have not prospered (they raced ahead and then fell) but Hambledon has fared worst than most. This was a bad tip. I apologise. But what to do now? Call it a day and shoot the dog or is this a red hot penny share recovery play? I spoke to the company at length today

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3123 days ago

Firestone Diamonds - sell

This has been a shockingly bad tip from me from my 12 years running t1ps.com. The shares have popped up today. And so is this still a red hot penny share?

AIM-listed diamond miner, Firestone Diamonds (FDI), has today announced that a definitive feasibility study on its 75% owned Liqhobong diamond project in Lesotho has determined a post-tax Net Present Value at an 8% discount rate of $335 million (£208 million). This is for a 1.2 million carat per annum open pit operation over a 15 year life of mine. Given, at a current 6.125p share price, Firestone is presently capitalised at just £33.5 million ( and has c£4million of debt as well), the shares ostensibly appear to offer strong value – but is this actually the case? In the following I explain why perhaps not.

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3125 days ago

Goldplat – An Omission from my 5 Gold stocks to buy? Why?

Yesterday I listed 5 gold stocks that you really should buy if, like myself and Malcolm Burne, you were bullish on the gold price. I warned that there were dozens to sell as they would be toast within a year. This sector is a binary play. I am asked why was Goldplat (GDP), a stock I first flagged in the 12 years when I ran t1ps.com, not listed on the buy list? Is it a sell? Let me explain.

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3129 days ago

Jubilee Platinum – Time to Give Up? Or Double up?

I tipped Jubilee Platinum (JLP) at 17.75p back in 2003. It zoomed ahead to 60p plus. It is now 8.75p valuing it at c£28 million. Is it worth hanging on? One can build a credible bull case but also a bear case as I consider below. I interrupted the holiday of chairman Colin Bird to discuss this and my conclusion follows at the end.

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3130 days ago

Shanta Gold – Placing Complete, PI screwing all done – Now we Plebs can and should buy

And so the screwing of Private Investors in AIM listed gold miner Shanta Gold (LSE:SHG) is completed. The company has today announced that it has raised $35 million (£21.8 million) in its bookbuild placing announced yesterday at 17p. The new investors will own 38% of the equity. We plebs have been rogered, we feel sore but an objective look at the investment case still leaves the shares as a buy. Here is why.

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3131 days ago

Shanta Gold – Private Investors Screwed Again But It is still a buy

AIM listed gold producer Shanta Gold (SHG) has announced that it will today raise a minimum $30 million (£18.6 million) via an institutional placing. An accelerated book build will take place today so we do not know the price but I reckon that it will be in the range of17-18p. Yes private investors are being screwed and the share price movement in the days leading up to today stinks like a mackerel’s rectum but the shares, at 17.125p valuing Shanta at £54 million) are still very attractive for the long term investor. Here is why

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3133 days ago

Archipelago Resources: 129% ahead so far but still a buy at 63p – target (at least) 95p

I first recommended AIM listed gold producer, Archipelago Resources (AR.) back in December 2004 at 27.5p on a website that I do not mention and few read anymore. After publishing some pretty impressive drill results today which indicate real upside possibilities at its 95% owned flagship Toka Tindung mine in Indonesia the shares are 63p. But I reckon that they are worth at least 95p (probably more) and here is why.

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3139 days ago

Chaarat Gold – Great Grades, Share Price All Wrong

I have not covered myself in glory with AIM listed gold soon to be producer Chaarat Gold ( CGH). I first tipped the shares at 45p in May 2010 and indeed gave them another bullish write up at 24.375p just a couple of weeks ago.

The shares are just 21.5p today valuing Chaarat at a mere £53.8 million. That is despite the company today releasing an incredibly encouraging set of drill results from its Tulkubash gold project in the Kyrgyz Republic. The shares are worth at least 48p and here is why.

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3140 days ago

Norseman Gold PLC – Not in Administration- Brief Explanation

I am bombarded with emails today insisting that Norseman Gold PLC (LSE:NGL) is in administration. It is not. I think I know where the confusion lies, let me explain.

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3142 days ago

Shanta Gold – New Loan – What is going On? Still Dirt Cheap

AIM Listed gold producer Shanta (SHG) is in production and should be generating cash from its New Luika mine in Tanzania At June 30th it had $21 million in the kitty yet on October 5th it announced that it had secured a new $4 million loan facility from a director and was “in discussions with additional providers of working capital financing facilities to meet its short term working capital requirements during the ramp up phase of the New Luika Gold Mine.” What on earth is going on?

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3145 days ago

Norseman Gold – sue the board/advisors? Don’t be mad

I am contacted by a couple of angry Norseman Gold (LSE:NGL) shareholders asking if they can sue the company following today’s appalling news. It is bad, there is no getting away from it but the story is not played out in full. So, firstly

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3145 days ago

Norseman Gold – A total Disaster But NOT a write off although Administrator in (at subsidiary level)

AIM and ASX listed gold Miner Norseman Gold ( NGL) has been a truly disastrous tip from me (37p in July 2009). The shares are now suspended and will remain suspended for a good while as it has just put its operating unit into administration. It sounds as if it is end game but it is not. I cannot say it is good news ( it is bad news) but do not give up the ghost yet. This is why.

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