Personal and undiluted views
oil price

16 days ago

SYME, red flags, Kore Potash, K2P, oil price, Lansdowne Oil & Gas, LOGP, URU Metals, URU, New Year’s Eve, PATH, Path Investments" target="_new">Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: It is the 3 things the fraud SYME does NOT say that should terrify the morons

I hope you have a Happy New Year’s Eve.  I aim to be in bed by 8 PM. Bah Humbug. Intoday’s podcast I look at URU Metals (URU), Lansdowne Oil & Gas (LOGP), Path Investments (PATH), Kore Potash (K2P) and the fraud [email protected] Capital (SYME) and today’s red flag dripping trading statement. I also explain why I expect the oilprice to go higher over the coming year.

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95 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: a day of childcare hell

To say that I am cross by today’s turn of events would be an understatement. Hence this podcast is short and late and somewhat bad tempered. It covers Asos (ASC), Anglo African (AAAP), Tirupati Graphite (TGR), and Orcadian (ORCA) with another comment on the oil price and oil shares.

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649 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: No longer a down and out old man but a throwback to the 1970s & I hate James Hay

Yes, after three weeks, I have shaved off a lockdown beard that was white, grey, black and brown and made me look like an elderly Big Issue seller. But having run out of foam i still have a dark moustache and so am now a throwback to the 1970s. The good old days.  I discuss this and also the idea that we will see a dramatic post Coronavirus economic, stockmarket and oil price recovery. I look at Easyjet (EZJ), Angling Direct (ANG) – using it as a case study of how the economy really is snagged so badly – and at the scandal at Versarien (VRS) where lyin’ Neill Ricketts now stands totally exposed with regards to his share dumping a year ago. Surely the regulators must act now. I discuss how James Hay are m aking my life a misery with their incompetence lover my SIPP transfer.  Finally an appeal from Darren please send your views of your new home desks and the views from your window to [email protected]  

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664 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Easyjet has to be nationalised with shareholders losing everything

I have discussed coronavirus itself putting to you a question no-one dares ask over on my own website HERE. Then I discuss Peter Brailey’s most excellent work on the oil price today and what it means for London’s listed oil stocks if Peter is even half correct, which I think he may be. Finally to the airlines and why shareholders in EasyJet (EZJ) must now lose everything in a nationalisation not just be modestly diluted as the FT argues is being discussed. 

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676 days ago

As an investor, doing nothing is generally under-rated (but sometimes the facts have changed)...

The oil price tanking  for reasons I explained at the weekend HERE  and shares tumbling across the board on concerns as to what damage the Coronavirus is doing, and will do, to the real economy and thus to corporate earnings. Generally, my view is that doing nothing as an investor is something that is greatly under-rated. It is perhaps better to wait until the smoke clears. Having said that, sometimes we need to accept that facts have changed and that does fundamentally alter an investment thesis…

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677 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: stockmarket and oil price crash special

Don’t worry the sun will still rise tomorrow and we are not ALL going to die of Coronavirus. I discuss the oil price crash and stockmarket slump and look in particular at: Tern (TERN), Carnival (CCL), Bidstack (BIDS), Versarien (VRS), the antics of market makers, Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Bahamas Petroleum (BPC), BP (BP.), Shell (RDSB), Tullow (TLW), Optibiotix (OPTI) and Premier Oil (PMO)

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741 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: My condolences Mr Corbyn on what must be a terribly sad day for you

I jest. The death of Qassem Soleimani sees one more evil bastard heading to hell. While those with #TrumpDerangementSyndrome will shed tears for this Jew hating, terror loving mass murderer, I do not but discuss the impact of this latest Trump triumph on the region, on the oil price and on oil stocks. I look at Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) and at Zenith Energy (ZEN) whrre I am contacted by material shareholders who want regime change something that makes Anglo’s desire to own Zenith shares even more bonkers. Finally I suggest that unless Bidstack (BIDS) clarifies three matters urgently its shares will continue to collapse.

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853 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: 2 very exciting events

I discuss one of them in full. One have referred to before, part 2 is tomorrow bt I can’t say what it is for another few weeks. Then I look at today’s Neil Woodford shocker Benevolent AI and how much Neil personally has trousered from valuations now shown to be a joke. Then the attack on Saudi Arabia and what it means for oil prices, gold and the global economy. It is not as dramatic as if this had happened in the 1970s. But there is a dramatic scenario to consider.

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1814 days ago

LGO Energy in Charts

Bulls of LGO Energy (LGO), like our own pet in house BB loon Wildes, argue that the decline in its share price is entirely down to the falling oil price and nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that it has hopeless assets in Trinidad which, however much cash is thrown at them, cannot produce enough oil to generate free cashflow. I offer you up four charts, sent in by a kind reader, which should show this in pictures, since folks like Wildes find long words a tad confusing.

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2143 days ago

Swings & Roundabouts: the oil market view from SP Angel: interesting stuff

I cannot say that this is a million miles away from my own view except that I am more bearish than the broker on global demand for oil given where I see the world economy heading. Thus - unless there is all out war in the Middle East -  my view is that a sustained recovery in the oil price is a 2017 or late 2016 story and won't happen sooner which means stacks more PLC casualties (here are my top 11 to fold BTW). We shall see. I thought this morning's note rather interesting. It follows below:

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2152 days ago

Premier Oil: The Sting in the Tail - could it still default on debt? Not if but when...

Premier Oil (PMO) has today served up full year numbers and all things considered it is not quite the horror show it could have been. The E.On acqusition looks transformational but hang on...what is this in the final sentence of the opening verbage:

Significant liquidity with cash and undrawn bank facilities of US$1.2 billion; unsecured facilities not subject to semi-annual redetermination; E.ON acquisition will be materially covenant accretive; further relaxation of covenants may be required if low oil prices persist”

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2234 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 5 December - Six oil stocks heading to zero (and there are more) post OPEC

In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.

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2264 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 5 November - sticking it to the bastards at Canaccord

On Guy Fawkes night I reflect on the horrors of this day. Then news from ECR Minerals (ECR) and W Resources (WRES) prompts me to look at the mining sector in general. Then it is onto Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) and my thoughts on oil, oil shares, the oil price and oil services companies. Then to the dismal numbers from Canaccord Genuity (CF.) - what it says about the whole sector but also its company specific issues. Finally I take a swipe at Range Resurces (RRL)

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2559 days ago

Lucian Miers: 3 oil shorts

Infamous bear raider Lucian Miers is of the view that the oil price is not going to spike higher in a hurry and that this is going to cause real pain across the sector. He has made money shorting Afren (AFR) where the debt looks company consuming at current oil prices but perhaps the bid will save it so Miers has closed that position. However...

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2563 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 10 January

In today's podcast I refer to the excellent Black Swan 2015 review by Richard Poulden which you should all read. I cover the issue of how low the oil price could go but also what we as investors should assume that it will be. I touch on IGAS and Northern Petroleum (both shorts). And the I look at the issue of what constitutes market abuse in the Bulletin Board Moron community

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3379 days ago

Video Postcard Number 10

It has been a long but enjoyable week. This week’s video looks back on some of the highlights, notably the Evil Empire winning the Nobel Peace Prize and my battle with AIM listed penny dreadful Sefton Resources (SER) on Tuesday. But I look forward too.

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3418 days ago

The Price of Carbon Fuels keeps on going up right? Er...No

Advocates of green energy insist that the price of carbon fuels keeps on going up as the world runs out of them and so we must spend gazillions investing in windmills and solar panels etc. Just for the record, as new oil and coal discoveries continue to be made the facts are rather different.

Here is a chart of the inflation adjusted oil price. It uses an American crude (Illinois)
which is about the same as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) which is the standard US measure and trades today at $95 a barrel.

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3442 days ago

4 Potential Mid East Wars by Christmas, what should the West and you do?

Things are hotting up in the Middle East. There are three possible scenarios for military conflict by Christmas plus the usual wild card of a revolution. There are those who wish genocide against Israel and the useful idiots in the West who would allow this. The oil price could rocket. It is all rather grim. Where to begin?

The best bet for military action is a concerted series of air strikes by Israel on Iran. The FT reported yesterday that the Israelis wanted to start before November in order to wipe out the threat of Iran getting a nuclear bomb. The West should not be intervening in this one. That is to say we should not assist Israel but equally we should not, as we are doing now, hold her back. The nutters who run Iran would make Tel Aviv their prime target if they had a nuke (they have said as much) and so Israel has every right to bomb these wicked Islamofascists back into the stone age. Secretly all the other Arab leaders would be delighted by such an outcome although publicly they will, of course, condemn the “wicked Jews”. This has to be an Evens or better bet.

Second up is Syria

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3465 days ago

The Middle East and why you need oil exposure

Dr Doom, aka Nouriel Roubini, talked last week of a perfect storm in 2013. One component of that storm is a war between the West and Iran. I am not sure that it has to be Iran but there are stacks of other tinderboxes waiting to go up in that region and that has profound implications for the oil price.

As I am sure you are aware, the Islamofascists who rule Iran are trying to build a nuclear bomb. And, being complete nutters, they have also made some pretty clear comments about how much they would like to see Israel wiped off this planet. Putting two and two together (that is an A bomb + prize grade Jew hating Islamofascists) and there is potentially a problem. I do not believe the West should intervene in this matter. We should neither get involved militarily nor should we complain when the Israeli’s bomb Iran back into the Stone Age with a pre-emptive strike as a matter of self defence. The best way to support Israel and to prevent another holocaust is to let her get on with it.

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