Personal and undiluted views
oil stock

2963 days ago

Trade Number 7 in my ETX Christmas trading challenge with Steve Moore – Range Resources shock

This is going to shock, horrify and stun you. My seventh trade in my Christmas ETX Trading Challenge with Steve Moore is to buy Aussie oil explorer Range Resources (RRL) at 1.28p at £60 a penny. “What the Castlemaine xxxx” I hear you say, are you not a mega bear?

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3017 days ago

Falcon Oil & Gas – meet up with CEO Philip O’Quigley

A foxy PR bird called some weeks ago and asked if I cared to meet up with Philip O’Quigley the CEO of AIM listed Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG). The name O’ Quigley rang a bell, and the PR bird was a foxy tease, and so I agreed. I can see the speculative upside in Falcon’s tale, it is not one to bet the ranch on but it might be worth a flutter.

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3067 days ago

Northern Petroleum: Canada Update and meeting the new head honcho Keith Bush

AIM listed oil stock Northern Petroleum (NOP) announced last week that 3D seismic data purchased and interpreted since the company acquired its leases in northern Alberta, Canada “has increased the number and type of drilling opportunities available on the land… (these) include the identification of undrilled reef structures as well as reefs which may benefit from drilling up-structure from the previous entry point”. With also formal assignment of existing wellbores from previous operators taking longer than usual (the drilling of a new well and a side track not affected by this), the company notes that “the final proof of concept well sequence will be adapted to reflect this”

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3092 days ago

Leyshon Resources: on track and cheap

AIM listed China oil and gas play Leyshon Resources (LRL) has released a report covering the second quarter of 2013 - which emphasises that it remains “well placed” to continue advancing its exploration and appraisal of the Zijinshan gas project in central China. So are the shares a buy? Yes.

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3101 days ago

Leyshon - Time to Get back in?

AIM listed oil and gas stock Leyshon Resources (LRL) has announced the commencement of drilling of well 'ZJS7' on the Zijinshan gas project in China – this at a location approximately three kilometres to the northeast of well ZJS5 after a recently completed formation pressure test there, following a three week shut-in period, “recorded 16.5MPa/2425psi on a single zone, significantly higher than that recorded in nearby wells in the same strata”.

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3115 days ago

Sefton Resources Kansas Part 1 - surely not another misleading statement?

I ask you to cast your mind back to November 2012. The 15thto be exact. It was when AIM Cesspit listed Sefton Resources (SER) announced the acquisition of new oil operating assets in Kansas. It was all terribly exciting stuff. 

The company stated that in an RNS of that day: 

Competent Person Dr Nafi Onat has made a study of the oil fields in Northeast Kansas for Sefton, from which detailed information was announced on 12 March 2012. Below are some of the key points that he has made on the potential of this area for oil and gas production.  

Analysis of 320 wells on 23 McLouth fields reveals initial average production was approximately 27 bopd and 350mcfg per well during the first month of production. Based on completion reports and deliverability tests, initial gas producing fields varied from 150 mcfg to 2mmcfg per day.

Frigging hell. Sefton paid only $200,000 for these assets and what is that about 27 bopd in month 1? Cripes this sounded exciting.

On December 7th 2012 Sefton issued shares to stop it going bust by Christmas. It raised c £700,000. But heck with those exciting Kansas wells surely this was a winner.  Hmmmmm.

Now wind forward to this month

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3138 days ago

Northern Petroleum - boardroom changes CAN matter

AIM-listed oil and gas company Northern Petroleum (NOP) has announced the departure of director Maurice Eaton who joined the company in 2007 and became Director of Operations in June 2011. The company added “Maurice’s departure is the first of a series of changes to board roles and executive responsibilities including the roles of Chairman and Managing Director planned during 2013”.

Although very long-term shareholders may still be in an ok position here – I initially recommended these shares as a hot tip at the equivalent of 13.75p in December 2001 – the performance in more recent years has been undoubtedly disappointing – the shares down from more than 160p in October 2009 and more than 100p as recently as May 2011 to a current 36p.

But the last sentence of this release is fascinating. Chairman Richard Latham has been a member of the company’s board since 1995 and was appointed Non-Executive Chairman in 1999, whilst Managing Director Derek Musgrove

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3148 days ago

Are Lochard Energy shareholders mad? The latest statement on the Parkmead offer

On 23rd May it was announced that AIM listed Parkmead (PMG) was to buy AIM Cesspit oil stock Lochard Energy (LHD) in an all share deal worth c 4.9p per share. 41% of Lochard shareholders have agreed unconditionally but some – including the former CEO are trying to block the deal. With respect, they are tonto. My only surprise is that Parkmead has not walked away.


You may remember that the former CEO ran this company into the ground, was ousted and then used his lawyers to extract a $1.3 million payoff. That on its own should tell you that if he is voting one way you should automatically vote the other. He is clearly a prize shit.

Today’s statement from Lochard is grim. It is clear that

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3150 days ago

Sefton Kansas statement- the normal rubbish: tick tock tick tock on the cash front

Sefton Resources (SER) – the AIM Cesspit company that is suing me for libel – has served up May output data from its Kansas operations. At least we will not have to suffer much more of this rubbish as it is 20 seconds to midnight on the great cashburn clock. Tick Tock Tick Tock.

Sefton boasts that output in May rose from 400 barrels in March and April to 450 barrels. Of course it only has a 42% working interest and so on a $30 margin (including transport costs) that will have generated a gross profit for Sefton of about $5600. Chuck in Sefton’s additional admin costs and I very much doubt that it was in the black on this business.



And then, of course, there is the capex. Getting each of these old wells onstream required $15,000 or more. It strikes me that payback will be… er… quite some time.



So how many wells were onstream in April and how many in May? Er

 

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3151 days ago

Woburn Energy shareholders lose big time & may lose all while sleazy Tory MP Tony Baldry trousers £300,000

Woburn Energy (WBN) is an AIM Cesspit listed oil company which today announced that it had finally sold its last assets. It is left with net cash of $2.87 million (£1.87 million). It is now classed as an investment company but if it does not make an investment by 21st June 2013 its shares will be suspended. If it makes no investment by 21st December 2013 its shares will be booted off AIM. The company says it has “to date reviewed a number of potential investment opportunities but has not yet implemented its investing policy and will do so only by investing in those opportunities that have an acceptable risk profile.” Oh dear…suspension looms. -

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3154 days ago

Exclusive: Sefton Resources multiple investigations by AIM regulation team now underway

I can reveal exclusively that at last things are starting to happen on the regulatory front when it comes to AIM Cesspit listed Sefton Resources (SER) – the AIM regulation unit is now conducting multiple investigations into the company.



Sefton has admitted misleading investors as to its oil production levels and trend just 24 hours before a rescue placing on March 6th 2013 – something that is a clear and mammoth breach of AIM rules. It is suing me for libel for accusing it of misleading investors on a number of occasions in recent years. Until now it appears that the authorities have not done anything but that seems to be changing.



I can reveal that last week

 

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3165 days ago

Sefton Resources 2012 Results: Where to start? A Disgrace



It is hard to know where to start with the 2012 Annual Results from AIM Cesspit listed director lifestyle, ooops meant to say oil production, company Sefton Resources (SER) there is so much in them that begs questions rather than providing real knowledge. But suffice to say: the outlook is grim.



But let’s start with Note 1 which is a Sefton classic:

“The summary financial statements set out above have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”). These summary financial statements do not constitute financial statements in accordance with IFRS as they omit substantially all the disclosures required by IFRS.  A full set of audited financial statements will be published prior to Sefton’s Annual General Meeting and will be available at www.seftonresources.com”



In other words there are a series of disclosures here which are not on the RNS. But if you go over to the Sefton website all the disclosures are in there. Why go to the bother of producing two separate documents? Er… because most folks will just read the RNS. This is just utterly classic Sefton.

So what little horrors are being hidden away? Well let’s start with note 5.

 

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3165 days ago

Exclusive: Mediterranean Oil & Gas hits back at Leni Gas & oil

Aim listed Mediterranean Oil & Gas (MOG) has hit back hard at Leni Gas & Oil (LGO) following Friday’s preliminary court hearing in which Leni appeared to triumph.

Mediterranean has issued an RNS stressing that this hearing was only to allocate costs (which Leni did win on) and to set timetables. However sources close to Mediterranean have contacted ShareProphets and gone rather further.

It is Leni’s claim that it was misled by Mediterranean as to the nature of the latter’s discussions with Genel prior to selling 10% of a Maltese Exploration block for just $1 on August 1st 2012. 23 days later Mediterranean announced a tie up with Genel which would, according to analysts, have been worth $9 million to Leni had it not sold.

Leni’s claim is that it was misled by Mediterranean prior to the sale.

However,

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3167 days ago

Exclusive: Leni Gas & Oil set for $9 million windfall from Mediterranean Oil & Gas? Court Victory for Leni

A shock High Court Ruling made on Friday (but not announced) paves the way for a windfall gain of $9 million (or more) for AIM listed Leni Gas & Oil (LGO) at the expense of Cesspit listed Mediterranean Oil & Gas (MOG).

The background to the case is that on August 1st 2012 Leni sold its 10% stake in acreage known as Malta Area 4 Production Sharing Contract for $1 plus about $20,000 of historic expenses. Leni agreed to the sale on the basis that Mediterranean insisted that there was nothing going to happen to the block. On 23rd August Mediterranean sold 75% of the block to oil major Genel for

 an immediate cash payment of US$10 million

100% carry of the cost for the first exploration well Hagar Qim 1

100% carry of the cost for the second exploration well up to a maximum of US$30 million

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3167 days ago

Sefton: The smoking gun is located: Gotcha, gotcha, gotcha

AIM Cesspit pin-up boy Sefton Resources is suing me for libel over my oft repeated claims that it misled investors principally with regard to oil output last summer and that this caused its then adviser Fox Davies to do the honourable thing and resign.

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3167 days ago

US Oil & Gas - Award Winning Bullshit

The good news for US Oil & gas is that it still has cash. The bad news is that it is going to spunk it away on another exploration well in Hot Creek Nevada. The non-news is that CEO Brian McDonnell is still spouting complete horse shit in an investor Q&A published today.

There are numerous Q’s asked (although naturally young Brian has not chosen to answer some Qs) and I am sure that some of the answers stand up. But a few are utter horrors and I flag them up now.

MY COMMENTS ARE IN CAPITAL LETTERS. For those folks who cannot yet do joined up writing ( i.e. Your average USOP investor) that should allow them to look at words in a familiar way.

Brian sets out the Q&As into categories regarding “Technical”, “Trust”, “Competence”, “Communications” and “The next stage”. 

You might rephrase that as “Bullshit, Lack of Trust, Incompetence, Mis-Communications  and How the Remaining cash will be pissed away.”


Well off we go….

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3184 days ago

Gulf Keystone: Your statement makes me even more worried

I am expecting that the next statement from Gulf Keystone will be “The company knows of no reason for the decline in its share price.” Well I can pre-empt that by stating that I can think of plenty and today’s cack-handed attempt to reassure investors is one of them. And so here goes with my six reasons why I am increasingly bearish about Gulf Keystone.

I am sure that bulls can answer some of them but not all I suspect. The Red Flags keep coming up on this one and I suspect they will keep appearing. I wrote last week Gulf Keystone and the Smell Test: Fail – I stand by my conclusions of then. But here goes with the questions.

 

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3184 days ago

Ruspetro – owned by its banks with director’s dealings a negative

Fully listed Ruspetro (RPO) is the sort of company that should be on the cesspit AIM market – in fact its track record to date would put even parts of AIM to shame. Although the company – at 39.25p – is valued by the market at £140 million it is in reality already controlled by its banks – the equity is grotesquely overvalued.

As a reminder this was the company that served up a bullish trading statement in late November only to issue a grim profits warning at 6 PM on the Friday of the week between Christmas and New Year. It then announced it would refinance its debt via a bond issue. And then said that it was not going to. It really is a laugh a minute with our comrades from Siberia.

 

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3191 days ago

Shocker: The Dirty Tricks Campaign of Sefton Resources exposed

AIM listed joke oil company Sefton Resources (SER) is suing myself and my fellow journalist Daniel Levi (aka Brokerman Dan) for libel. It will lose and it knows it. But I can now start to reveal the dirty tricks campaign organised by Sefton in a deliberate attempt to smear and discredit myself and Dan. This will shock you.

Sefton had no need to sue me for libel. It could have issued an RNS to refute my specific allegations. It opted not to because it knows that they are 100% true: This Company has on a serial basis mislead investors.  And so it is using vast amounts of shareholders cash pursuing a legal case. It knows it cannot win and that this will be buried in the Courts for ages – it is merely an attempt to silence myself and Dan and to imply that we are telling porkies, to discredit us.

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3193 days ago

Gulf Keystone & the Smell Test: Fail

Gulf Keystone (GKP) is either the cheapest stock on AIM or is a horror waiting to blow. None of us knows which it is but on balance, after events yesterday, I would sell the shares. And for a variety of reasons.

The bull case is that the company sits on c14 billion barrels of oil. A market capitalisation of just £1 billion fails to discount that. Here endeth the bull case. If the company can start to produce that oil (and it targets output of 400,000 bopd by 2020) its shares are dirt cheap.

However, the bear case is extensive. My first contact with this company was when a then NED Lord Truscott oiled up to me to introduce himself. He was a Labour peer who took money from companies for getting legislation changed. Having a creep like him in charge of remuneration and corporate governance was like hiring Jimmy Savile as your babysitter.

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3197 days ago

New World Oil & Gas - Boardroom greed: shareholders screwed

Shares in AIM listed New World Oil & Gas (NEW) were trading at 9.625p a year ago. Today they are at 1.85p. Shareholders have every reason to be unhappy with the board. But it gets worse. Much worse.

I start with the cost of the three executive directors. The CEO gets paid (via a service contract with a third party firm) a salary of $390,000 a year plus a $60,000 pension contribution plus $60,000 contribution to healthcare insurance. The two other executive directors have to soldier by on

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3206 days ago

Sefton fesses up: we did mislead investors ahead of placing

Sefton Resources (LSE:SER), the tin pot oil company that its suing me for libel because I pointed out how on a serial basis it has misled investors ( down 99.9% since IPO) over the years admitted after hours (5.44 PM) yesterday that it misled investors 24 hours ahead of a placing last month – as I flagged at the weekend. It now wants us to move on and yet again promises a brighter future.

I find it hard to see how this admission, dragged out of it by myself and Brokerman Dan will add to its credibility in the forthcoming trial and I cannot see how AIM can let this go unpunished. So what is the guilty confession from Sefton?

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3208 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BP

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BP although comic style makes me wonder what this child of the sixties has been smoking of late. RSS writes:

America, or at least its coastal region around the Gulf of Mexico – which was unfortunately flooded with crude oil from a BP platform a year or so ago – may be a land of dreams over the rainbow; but they are not necessarily pleasant dreams as BP – like Dorothy and her little do Toto from the “Wizard of Oz” which I watched with my grand-daughter over the weekend – are finding out. It is curious that the tin man in the film is made out of old oil drums and oil cans. But is BP “Dorothy” who eventually gets back to normality, or the “tin man” without a heart who does not?

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3208 days ago

Premier Oil - North Sea Oil Discovery

FTSE-250 constituent Premier Oil (PMO) has this morning noted that exploration well 16/4-6S on the Luno II prospect (Premier: 30%) in the Norwegian North Sea “has resulted in a potentially significant oil discovery”. This has helped Premier’s shares up just over 5% to 381.4p at the time of writing. This is up from late 2008 lows of little more than 116p and 336.5p at which the shares commenced 2013. They did however hit 535p in early 2011 and the following updates on today’s announcement and its significance from an investment point of view.

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3213 days ago

Cairn Energy: Heavy Boardroom buying worth noting

I reviewed FTSE 250 oil and gas explorer and developer Cairn Energy (CNE) on 19th March when it released calendar 2012 results. The shares have subsequently drifted back slightly, to my surprise as I see real value here, but there has been some interesting recent boardroom interest in the shares which I take to mean that I am not alone in my analysis. Those who really should know agree.

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3214 days ago

Heritage Oil Farm in Deals – Interesting

Shares in FTSE-250 explorer and producer Heritage Oil (HOIL) have gained 50% in nine months having fallen below 120p in June 2012 to a current 180p, again nudging higher at the time of writing today on the back of an agreement to farm-in to two licences onshore Papua New Guinea. However, having traded above 200p earlier this year, the following reviews today’s announcement and whether there is still value on offer with Tony Buckingham’s company.

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3218 days ago

Does Gulfsands Petroleum plan a cash call?

On 15th February I suggested selling shares in AIM listed oil producer and explorer Gulfsands Petroleum (LSE:GPX) at111.5p. The shares are now 96p. One reason NOT to sell is that Gulfsands is debt free and has net cash but I wonder how much it actually has. A buzz of IR activity of late makes me wonder if there might be a placing ahead.

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3219 days ago

Sefton Resources – Dan files 1200 page rebuttal at High Court. Tick Tock.

My own defence against the spurious libel claims made against me by joke oil company Sefton Resources (LSE:SER) went in weeks ago. But today I have the good news that Brokerman Dan has filed his defence. It forms only part of his argument but already runs to 1200 pages of documents which poses an interesting question for Sefton, as Dan promises me that he has far more to come.

Uber-expensive City lawyers Pinsent Masons will now have to read every single page of Daniel’s submission. And its charge out rates are, I believe £500-750 an hour. Having read it all in detail missing nothing out it then has to submit its own response

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3221 days ago

Joke Company Vialogy – A few thoughts: shares to lose 90 Per Cent by August

I sense that shareholders in AIM listed management lifestyle, oops meant to say oilfield services company, Vialogy (LSE:VIY) are not exactly my biggest fans. I warned them to bale at 2.125p in the autumn on the basis that the company was ramping its shares with spurious announcements ahead of a rescue fund raise. I warned them to sell again at 1.625p in early February when, lo and behold, there was a rescue fund raise and I warn them at 1.3p to sell again now. 

That original article contains the full details of grotesque management pay packages over many years and of half a decade of abject non delivery. If you are squeamish do not read the article but by way of background to what has gone on here you should brace yourself and click HERE

And now for the observations:

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3221 days ago

Xcite Energy – broker Fox Davies suggests it is bid target

I am not sure that anyone can call the share price of Bulletin Board Darling AIM listed oil stock Xcite Energy (LSE:XEL) correctly. As such I make no comment on today’s results other than to republish a research note from top broker Fox Davies and it is I who underline two phrases which grabs my eye. Clearly high risk/high reward. Over to the broker...

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3221 days ago

Guest share tip: Sam Bottell buy Premier Oil

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip on FTSE 250 listed Premier Oil. Sam writes...

The calendar 2012 results for Premier Oil (PMO) came out on March 21 and following a detailed trading update in January there were no great surprises.  The shares have moved along steadily since mid-January when I noted their attractions HERE at 367p and now trade at 393p, valuing this FTSE 250 listed oil producer at £2.08 billion.

2012 was a good year but should have been better.  The key for Premier is that it has built in growth which is fully funded moving forward.

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3221 days ago

Zoltav Resources RTO – Financial Manipulation & Joke valuation

Zoltav Resources (LSE:ZOL) the AIM listed shell last week announced a Reverse takeover in a deal to buy some Russian oil assets. The shares were suspended at 4.6p but the deal is being done at 3.5p and so here is how the maths of the shareholder structure stacks up after the deal:

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3222 days ago

The great Leavenworth trail – more questions (no allegations) for Sefton Resources

AIM listed oil stock Sefton Resources (LSE:SER) is suing me for libel - it wants to shut me up. As this process drags on I shall under disclosure rules be asking for an awful lot of documents and emails as, I imagine will Brokerman Dan who is also being sued by Sefton and its uber-expensive City lawyers Pinsent Masons. But to save Sefton some time later, there are some matters relating to its pipeline assets in Leavenworth County Kansas which its paid for cheerleaders at Hardman, Edison, etc. have flagged as having exciting upside about which I ask the questions now. It goes without saying that these assets are - despite what Hardman, Edison tell you - essentially worthless and here is why.

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3226 days ago

Sefton Resources – Time for another director disclosure?

I had a day off yesterday from Sefton Resources (LSE:SER) the joke AIM listed oil production company that is suing me for libel. But this morning I am sent, by a pal on the West Coast, a little snippet which I thought might interest you.  It concerns Thomas (Tom) George Milne who was appointed a non exec director on August 9th. His CV at the time sounded jolly impressive and when I met the fellow on October 9th it was explained to me that he was there to give Sefton’s financial reporting function more rigour. Milne’s CV looks good but..

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3228 days ago

Buy Cairn Energy - look at the asset backing

Cairn Energy (CNE) served up calendar 2012 results today and as oil and gas companies go this has to be the easiest stock going to analyse - it looks a nil brainer if dull share tip. What I refer to is the clear tangible net asset backing. At 279.4p the market capitalisation is £1.693 billion but have a look at the asset backing.

The 2012 numbers are pretty irrelevant. The highlight of the year was a return of $3.5 billion to shareholders following Cairn’s sell down of its stake in Cairn India, which is listed in India. For what it is worth the profit after tax was $73 million. This is all a far cry from my days as a graduate trainee oil analyst in the early nineties when the company’s house broker, for whom I then worked, put out a note on Cairn at 7p headlined “not bust yet.”

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3228 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Sell Ophir Energy

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on FTSE 250 listed Ophir Energy. Sam writes...

Ophir (OPHR) Energy is a rare beast among FTSE 250 oil stocks in that it has almost no production and will not have for several years.  It is like those junior E&P stocks so beloved of Bulletin Board followers but, at 458p, it is capitalised at £1.927 billion.  Having just raised c£525 million net of expenses it is fully funded to carry out a widespread exploration programme until mid-2014 across a number of territories but can you really justify the current price tag?

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3229 days ago

Buy Soco International at 399p

FTSE 250 listed oil Production Company Soco (SIA) operates in some pretty exotic locations – its production is in Vietnam and its exploration assets are in the sort of African hell holes you’d send your mother-in-law on holiday to. But the financial footing of the company is rock solid as calendar 2012 results published on 11th march make clear. Among the mid-cap oil explorers this shines out by dint of its cash backing and cash generation. This is not something discounted in a 399p share price and the shares should be bought as part of a balanced portfolio of oil producers. This is a safety first share tip but it is interesting.

Net income in 2012 came in a shade below forecast at $207 million – but that still represented a 34% increase on 2011. But cash is what I am looking at here and cashflow from operations was ahead of forecast at $335 million leaving year end cash at $259 million.

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3242 days ago

Sefton Resources Trading Update and a NEW accusation from me of Sefton deliberately misleading investors

This is all so bloody familiar but here we go again with another trading update from Sefton Resources (LSE:SER), the joke company that is suing me for libel. I will offer it an opportunity to broaden that case below since I have unearthed another howler of a statement this morning in which, I accuse Sefton and its plutocrat chairman Jim Ellerton once again of deliberately misleading investors. But first the trading statement.

Dr Ali says that his report on steamflooding in California is making good progress. Specifically that: “ work on the history match stage of the thermal stimulation report is now coming to an end. Dr Ali has advised that he is about to start the cyclical steam matches and various steamflood scenarios which he plans to work on simultaneously”. This would be the report that in the now infamous interims of September 2012 was promised for delivery by the year end. And that which on 6th April was promised for delivery by the end of May. That is April and May 2011.

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3244 days ago

Goldman Sachs: Northern Petroleum Upgraded to Conviction Buy at 56p – target price 121p

I just happen to have this broker report in my inbox. I agree with its conclusion. And so here goes mightly Goldman Sachs on tiny AIM listed oil stock Northern Petroleum (LSE:NOP).

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3248 days ago

Ruspetro – The Beast from the East serves up another shocker

Fully listed Russian Oil producer Ruspetro (LSE:RPO) first came to my attention when it issued a disastrous profits warning at 6.3 PM on the Friday of New Year week. It thought no-one would notice? I did. Coming just six weeks after an upbeat trading statement that RNS was a horror. Then there was the announcement of a debt for equity and debt refinancing package. But that fell through too. And today there is another shocker. Those who own shed loads of these shares like my fat friend Evil Knievil keep on telling me that things cannot get any worse. And then they do.

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3250 days ago

Guest Share tip: Sam Bottell buy Heritage Oil & Gas

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip on Heritage Oil & Gas which I am minded to say is correct in its conclusion. Sam writes…

The founder of FTSE 250 Listed Heritage Oil (HOIL) is a colourful gent but the way that he has grown Heritage from scratch is exemplary. The recent final disposal of the company’s last stake in its Kurdish assets meant that since its inception this company has now realised $2 billion from disposals since its inception and that cash has been reinvested to create an attractive asset base which is not recognised in the current share price. In a sector with few quality players this is a stand out buy.

The company now sits on free cash of c$172 million. It has another $405 million set aside should it lose a tax dispute case in Uganda and it says that its legal opinion is that it will win. Either way it is not short of cash. The company has some producing assets in Russia and exploration potential in Libya, Malta and Tanzania. This has potential but is not the key value driver. That is block OML 30 in Nigeria where the company has an effective 31.5% stake; this aea is a vast block where production is already substantial but will grow at an incredibly rate in the years up to 2020.

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3254 days ago

Guest Post: Steve Moore on Tullow Oil Trading Update

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com from the day he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty website but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you a share tip he has published on Ireland originating Tullow Oil. Steve writes…

I commented on Tullow Oil (TLW) earlier this month as the FTSE 100 oil and gas explorer and producer announced results for calendar 2012. In that analysis I noted the company’s 2012 discovery of a new oil basin in Kenya and its highly ambitious 2013 exploration programme and the company has today updated on its East Africa exploration and appraisal. With the shares currently trading at 1,227p, I review this in the following…

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3255 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Plexus Holdings

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Plexus Holdings. Sam writes…

I see that Plexus (POS) was last night awarded the title “Best Oil & Gas stock” at the Stock Market Wire Awards awards ceremony in London. It is an absolute darling of the Bulletin Boards which is not surprising as it has delivered spectacular returns for shareholders. There is a good reason for that: its POS-GRIP wellhead technology is clearly world class and is much in demand, but the share price is now 240p valuing the business at £199 million. On the basis of what we know is the share price just a bit ahead of itself?

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3260 days ago

Gulfsands Petroleum – Even Commissioned researcher Edison sees limited upside: Sell

A report lands on my desk today from Edison Research on AIM Listed Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) entitled “The road out of Damascus.” This report was commissioned by Gulfsands ( i.e. paid for) and so one would not expect a bearish conclusion. ‘tis always the way with research reports from commissioned firms ( like Edison or Hardman) or from a house broker – they want to say buy but sometimes just cannot do so. And so you get what is known as a “corporate hold” . i.e. sell. There is no recommendation on the report but with the shares at 111.75p it sets a risked valuation of the stock at 119p. I cannot see why anyone would buy a share for just 6% upside. Any sane investor would sell and switch into a stock with more upside.

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3262 days ago

Guest Post Steve Moore: Tullow Oil – 2012 Results Analysis

Steve Moore and I worked together at t1ps.com ever since he left University. He is a very talented young analyst and a man of utter principle which is why he quit t1ps. He is now working with my on my Nifty Fifty websital but also writing off his own bat and I am keen to support that. Apart from anything else he talks a lot of sense. As such I bring you a piece he has published on Tullow Oil. Steve writes…

Tullow Oil (TLW), the FTSE 100 oil and gas explorer and producer, has released calendar 2012 results which it emphasises are “in line with market expectations”, with a “balance sheet substantially strengthened through debt re-financing and $2.9 billion from Uganda farm-down”. The shares have responded favourably – currently trading higher at 1,235p, capitalising the company at £11.2 billion. The following reviews the results announcement…

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3263 days ago

Vialogy – will Chevron really be the pay daddy?

Supporters of AIM listed director lifestyle (oops sorry I meant oil exploration services) company Vialogy (LSE:VIY) always pin big hopes on the idea that Chevron will announce mega contracts. The penny share dreadful, Vialogy has never actually announced what its two contracts with Chevron were worth but we know that the first was c£40,000 ( or less than Chevron spends each year on toilet rolls for all of its offices). I have no idea how much Chevron will commit to Vialogy’s product but I bet that it will not be much.

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3263 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Madagascar Oil

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Madagascar Oil.

AIM listed Madagascar Oil (MOIL) had well publicised funding issues in the second half of last year caused by $17 million cost over-runs on the development of its Tsimiroro heavy oil field in Madagascar. However, boardroom changes have been made and today it has announced the completion of a placing and open offer (62.6% taken up) at 18p raising £49.5 million, which allows it to put its problems behind it and allows investors to look at what its assets are actually worth. Is a £100 million market capitalisation at 19p harsh? I think that it is.

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3268 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BP

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BP in light of its latest trading statement.

Writing here on January 6th I concluded that a charge of ‘gross negligence’ against BP in regard to the continuing judicial saga of the case against BP for its role in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, was made less likely by a guilty plea to negligence from the sub-contractor oil well operator Trans Ocean. I added that, that such a helpful outcome might not represent the last word on BP’s outstanding liability; the ways of lawyers being wondrous. And so it has come to pass, something we learned more about as as part of a 2012 trading statement published on February 5th.

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3269 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Petroceltic: a buying opportunity?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share sell tip from TradingResearch Point on Ireland based Petroceltic

2013 was meant to be the year when Petroceltic moved on from corporate activity (the purchase of Melrose) to exploration success and so it is rather disappointing that it has started the year with a duster in Egypt. With sentiment towards the oil mid caps and juniors already somewhat dampened by drill bit failure elsewhere (notably with a range of Falklands stocks HERE) it is not surprising that this news has not been received well. Whilst serving as a reminder that exploration is inherently risky this does not alter the strong buy case for this Ireland based firm.

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3269 days ago

Ruspetro – Farce Turns to Tragedy as refinancing “postponed”

Russian Oil producer Ruspetro (RPO) has served up another shocking statement this morning – its habit of delivering nasty surprises does not change. Having advised a short at 83.5p on January 4th I suggested on 25th of January that having refinanced its debt it was “merely one to avoid.” The shock today is that it has decided not to refinance its debt or to undertake the partial debt for equity swap announced on January 25th. This leaves its cash position looking very tricky indeed and at 50.5p the shares are once again a sell.

The announcement today is brief but shocking none the less. It reads:

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3277 days ago

Range Resources – Flagging a Tweet from David Lenigas

I flag this with no idea what is behind this but David Lenigas runs Leni Gas & Oil (LSE:LGO) which like Range Resources (LSE:RRL) has extensive interests in Trinidad. Both were mant to present at some shindig but Mr Lenigas tweeted a few hours ago:

David Lenigas ‏@DavidLenigas

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3277 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Borders & Southern – Operations Update – Positive on the surface, but drill down to a sell

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Borders & Southern. I happen to agree with his conclusion.

The Falklands oil exploration stocks remain the darlings of the Bulletin Board but the bare fact is that while Rockhopper (RKH) has served up some good news the “field” has disappointed. Yet hope springs eternal and thus a presentation on 28th January from Borders & Southern (BOR) has sparked its shares into life once again sending the shares to 27.75p valuing the company at £133 million.

Borders has in the past enjoyed some success. In April 2011 it announced the Darwin find where initial tests suggested a gas condensate reserve of 130 to 250 million barrels of liquid. Recently the company re-asserted that a mid case recoverable reserve could be 210 million barrels. Note the words could be.

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3278 days ago

Ruspetro: Refinancing helps but debt and delivery (or lack of it) the issue

Russian Oil Producer Ruspetro (RPO) has announced a partial debt for equity swap and refinancing of its remaining debts. This is good news. However before those who ignored my advice to sell at 83.5p on 4th January after an almost comical well after hours profits warning start to celebrate this company still faces serious issues. The shares have bounced back to 49.5p but while they are no longer a short I would still regard them as one to avoid.

The profits warning was release, as you may remember at 6.30 PM on the Friday of New Year week when nobody was meant to be noticing. Coming less than six weeks after an upbeat trading statement it left the management team with zero credibility and it will take an awfully long time for that to change. I flagged at the time that the company had serious balance sheet and ( lack of ) free cashflow issues and the latest announcement partially solves that.

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3282 days ago

Afren: Not Fundamentally cheap

Earlier this week Afren plc (AFR), a FTSE-250 oil and gas exploration and production company which despite its size remains a darling of the Bulletin Boards, updated investors on its performance in 2012 and its outlook. This review helped the shares up to 152.5p although they have subsequently slipped back to 147p which capitalises the company at £1.595 billion. Chartists will note that 152p proved a resistance level ten months ago and failure to breach that level ( which had been support a ten months prior to that) saw the shares fall back to 100p. But I’d rather burn my West Ham season tickets and start supporting Spurs than become a Technical analyst and so I review the fundamental case.

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3285 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Buy Xcite Energy at 102p – Target 181p

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from TradingResearch Point on Bulletin Board darling Xcite Energy.

AIM oil explorer Xcite Energy (XEL) is a darling of the Bulletin Boards which is normally a good reason not to buy the shares. Indeed the shares have fallen from 395p in January 2011 to 103.25p today (they were 67.5p five months ago) and whilst this is not for the feint hearted, there is a string fundamental case for this £299 million capitalised company. I believe that the shares are worth 181p and are a buy.

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3288 days ago

Sefton Resources: The Liars Send Lawyers Letters

This morning AIM listed penny dreadful oil producer Sefton Resources (LSE:SER) has via its lawyer Pinsent Masons sent lawyers letters to myself and BrokerMan Daniel. Such is the competence of this company that it sent the hard copy to an address that I have not lived in for three years. Luckily it got the email address right.

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3292 days ago

Guest Post Sam Bottell: Premier Oil a buy ahead of Thursday?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

If one tracks the Bulletin Boards the excitement in the oil sector always seems to surround the smaller oil companies. As my former colleague from my days working with Oilbarrel and t1ps, Robert Sutherland Smith, recently noted here one always needs exposure to oil. However buying a pure E&P punt is a play on exploration success and only indirectly on the crude price – it is not a true hedge – and that brings me to Premier Oil (PMO) which is a FTSE 250 stock valued at £1.94 billion. Its production and proven reserve base more than underpin that valuation leaving the exploration upside in for virtually nothing, something I expect to be demonstrated in an operations update out on Thursday 17th January.

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3297 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell on Petroceltic - a buy?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share tip from him from TradingResearch Point…

In 2012 the focus of Ireland based AIM listed oil explorer and producer Petroceltic (PCI) was corporate – the merger with Melrose Resources. In 2013 the focus is on growing the business by exploration. Exploration is inherently risky but there are enough, fully funded, diverse projects to offer material upside for the shares which trade today at 7.55p, valuing the business at £177 million. 2013 will be interesting.

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3298 days ago

Disagreeing with the Boss – Ruspetro would not be a buy at 60p

I note that your esteemed editor was hoping to buy shares in Ruspetro at sub 60p on Monday following the company’s shock profits warning at 6.30 PM on Friday 3rd January. He was denied as the shares never got that low – they are now 63.25p. But I think the boss may yet get his chance… My helpful suggestion is that he declines to take it. This whole company stinks.

A reminder – On 19th November the company published a bullish trading statement saying that output was 7,853 bopd and that it was on track to hit 10,400 bopd by the calendar year end. Good news all round. Fill your boots. Congratulations to my fat accountant, Evil Knievil who was long (oops!). But then on January 3rd ( a day when few folks were working) the company announced at 6.30 PM (when even those folks were on their fifth pint at the pub) that output was actually 6,540 bopd and that it continued to “experience slower than anticipated production growth due to additional modifications required to surface field equipment and curtailed well completions in December.” It blames “technical challenges in stabilising condensate from hydrocarbons produced.”

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3299 days ago

Vialogy – Cynicism Bordering on Exploitation (of shareholders): Sell

Director lifestyle (oops I meant to say oil exploration services) group Vialogy (LSE:VIY) needs to raise cash urgently or it is going bust. That is not just me saying that,. That is the bombshell from its auditors that the company snuck out over Christmas when no-one was watching. Its attempts since then to sucker private investors into buying the stock so that it can get a rescue placing away ( at a huge discount ‘natch) display a cynicism which is quite extraordinary. Anyone buying the stock in the market is being exploited shamelessly as I shall detail below.

The shock warning from the auditors came out on December 31st. Yup, New Year’s Eve when no-one was paying attention. I try to watch this company like a hawk but I missed it. The statement is pretty clear:

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3300 days ago

Ruspetro: A shocking profits warning – what is fair value?

Ruspetro (RPO) has already served up a profits warning in 2013 and for its timing as much as its substance it is already in line to win an award for the biggest shock of the year. The share price at the close on Friday was 83.5p, valuing the firm at £278.4 million but given that the release went live at 6.30 PM the stock will be hit hard on Monday. At what point should you buy if at all?

6.30 PM? Yes that is not a typo. To release a profits alert on a 3 day Christmas week is band enough. After hours is poor form. But to sneak it out at 6.30 PM on a Friday when the few people who were at work last week were already onto their third after work pint is quite shocking behaviour. A management team that serves up such an announcement will need to prove itself consistently for a good period to regain the trust of investors.

What makes it worse is what the statement actually said.

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3302 days ago

Is Xcite Energy a speculative buy?

Shares in AIM and Canada-listed Xcite Energy (XEL) hit 395p in January 2011 as it reported on a successful “transformational well” drill on its flagship Bentley oil field in the UK Northern North Sea, 160 kilometres east of the Shetland Isles. However, market disappointment at a 10th May 2011 reserves report on Bentley saw the shares fall from 316.5p to close at 110p just seven weeks later. They hit a low of 67.5p in July 2012 and currently trade at 92.75p – capitalising the company at approaching £270 million. The stock is a darling of the Bulletin Boards. But is it good value?

The company was somewhat bemused by the market reaction to the May 2011 reserves report but the announced resource base was somewhat smaller than many had been expecting and the company’s shares had risen on significant hype in the lead up to the January well announcement

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3311 days ago

Gulf Keystone (GKP) – 2013 the pivotal year? Time to buy?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell at minesite/oilbarrel and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece from TradingResearch Point…

Gulf Keystone (GKP) the AIM listed Kurdistan-centred oil exploration and production company has had an eventful year which has seen the share price tumble from highs of 425.2p to its current price of 167.5p. Day in day out it is the most discussed stock on the Bulletin Boards with its supporters convinced that the share fall is an opportunity. For them 2013 will be a pivotal year in Gulf’s development programme, the twelve months when their faith is rewarded. But will it be?

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3318 days ago

Fox Davies Buy Range Resources at 3.655p with a 25p Target Price. I disagree natch.

You know that I am a bear of AIM listed oil producer Range Resources (LSE:RRL) but I am nothing if not a balanced sort of fellow and hence this piece. I reckon that the shares are stonking short on the basis of non delivery, peer group relative cashflow multiples and the act that Range’s cash position is less than splendid – I am convinced that it will do a funding at some stage soon.

But others are bullish. Notably the company’s house broker Fox Davies which has reiterated its 25p target share price and buy stance in a research note out today ( 19th December).

My target price is 1.5p and you can read why HERE.

But becuase I am such a decent sort of fellow I offer an alternative viewpoint.

Download the PDF here

Whether you buy, sell or hold is your call. Have a very merry Christmas.

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3318 days ago

Vialogy – Bizarre Statement: Pre placing Ramp Alert & Christmas Vialogy Carols

AIM listed board lifestyle, sorry I meant oil technology, company Vialogy (LSE:VIY) has issued a “CEO statement” today which is bizarre. Bearing in mind that this company will be almost out of cash by March it is clearly part of a share ramp campaign ahead of a placing. Before the Bulletin Board morons have a go at me I ask them to consider a) timing and b) content. This stock is a slam dunk sell at a 2.125p share price as its cash crisis intensifies. This statement should alert you to that.

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3320 days ago

US Oil & Gas – Why the share slide?

Having bounced back up from 35p to 170p shares in GMX traded joke valuation company US Oil & Gas (USOP) were starting to bubble. The USOPians (folks who chat amongst themselves on twitter and Bulletin Boards) were already discussing once again whether £15 or £200 a share was fair value. But then…. the shares started to fall once again and as I write are back at 90p. This still values the company at a very generous £37 million but why the slide? And what next. I offer three explanations and also a festive greeting to my fellow Irishmen who run this company in our native tongue.

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3320 days ago

Sefton – October Official California output numbers revision ( down natch) & Zak Mir comment

PrintAt last the DOGGR website from the State of California has published the official October output numbers from AIM listed penny dreadful oil producer Sefton Resources (LSE:SER). And guess what? The number is lower that the company itself was saying in an RNS issued 12 days ago. Hey ho. Happy Christmas chairman Jim Bob Ellerton when are you going to issue a profits (or lack of them) warning?

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3320 days ago

Range Resources – I have some sympathy

Range Resources (LSE:RRL) was forced to issue a statement on 14th December saying that it noted unusual share trading activity and knew of no reason for this but that it plans operational updates within the next few days. Though I continue to believe that the shares are materially overvalued at 3.95p (my target share price is 1.5p) I find myself having real sympathy for the company. I guess it is all that Christmas spirit filtering through even to my black Ulster heart.

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3330 days ago

Sefton – Chairman Buying shares but is this real cash? Company will not say.

The deluded fools still aboard the good ship Sefton (LSE:SER) were thrown a bone today with news that the pension plan of chairman Jim Ellerton has ponied up £76,145 in a placing at a share price of 1.1044p – this they argue is a huge vote of confidence in the AIM listed oil stock. Er…perhaps not. Is this real cash? The company will not say.

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3331 days ago

Sefton Death Spiral Begins – Death Postponed but not for long.

Unable to get away an equity placing AIM Listed penny dreadful oil producer Sefton Resources (LSE:SER) today announced that it has started to draw down on its Darwin Death spiral (sorry Equity drawdown facility). But the amount drawn down is pitiful. Okay the lights do not go out on March first but death is merely postponed. And with the shares issued at just 1.1044p a mere £648,855 (pre costs) was raised.

First up – is this dilutive? Heck yes. That is another 59 million shares in issue. IN other words the company has just increased its shares in issue by 11.3% to raise a pitiful £648,000 (before expenses). Let’s call that £600,000. But with the shares having been listed at 95p and now trading at a share price of 1.125p investors are used to dilution.

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3332 days ago

Sefton November Output – The Usual Spin: Company still heading for the rocks

AIM listed penny dreadful oil producer Sefton Resources (LSE:SER) has released November output numbers which it seems to think are good but as ever the reality is rather different. The bottom line is that this company should be issuing a profits (or lack of them) warning. And of course that it will be out of cash ( and with debt still to clear) by very early next year. My target price for the shares remains 0.01p – the stock closed at a share price of 1.18p today.

The company states that output (before adjustments) was 119 bopd in November. At one level I have to commend Sefton for increased disclosure. Yes I am being complimentary.

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3333 days ago

Northern Petroleum – Probably Duff Well, Company chat and market over-reaction – Wessex it is different

I published most of this share tip article earlier on my Nifty Fifty website – where I shall publish a new share tip later today: The Zeadyus-2 well in Guyane has not found commercial oil and has been abandoned. The share price of Northern Petroleum (LSE:NOP) has duly slumped by 14% to 54.75p. This is a total market over-reaction. I have discussed this at length with exploration manager Graham Heard and CEO Derek Musgrove and here’s the score. The shares remain a buy. The same cannot be said for Wessex Exploration (LSE:WSX) which like Northern also has a 1.25% stake in this field.

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3337 days ago

Liar, liar pants on fire – it is another press release from Sefton Resources

Aim listed penny dreadful oil producer Sefton Resources (LSE:SER) is at it again with another RNS press release which contains a lie. This is such a blatant lie I wonder how anyone can now believe a word that chairman Jim Ellerton or his IR gopher sidekick Doctor Green now says. It is sheer comedy. Of course there is a serious issue in that Sefton desperately needs to issue equity soon. It will – as things stand – be out of cash (but not debt) within two months. Tick tock. Tick tock. Tick tock. That is why the stock remains a sell at a share price of 1.18p with a target price of 0.01p

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3339 days ago

US Oil & Gas goes to Court To track down Bulletin Board critics

Ireland based US Oil & Gas (USOP) – a company which has a joke valuation has today secured orders from the Dublin Courts to secure the names and addresses of certain Bulletin Board posters who, it is alleged, have made defamatory anonymous comments about the officers of the company. I have some sympathy for US in what it has done ( while mainting my view that its valuation is a joke) but I doubt that this course of action will do it any good.

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3339 days ago

Leyshon Drilling News – It is good but Unclear

Leyshon Resources (LSE:LRL) shares have been unsuspended (at 25p) and have duly plunged back to 20.25p in the middle after the release of drilling news from China. I sense that a lot of Bulletin Board loons had got a little bit carried away last week pre-suspension and are now banking gains or just panicking as they do not really understand a statement which is, on balance, good. Some loons are even expressing disappointment that it is a gas discovery not oil which is odd as Leyshon always said it was drilling for gas in a gas rich region.

I tipped this stock at 11.5p (offer) in late October on the Nifty Fifty website

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3339 days ago

Joke Company US OIL & Gas – Another ramp underway

US Oil & Gas (USOP) is one of the most obvious joke companies going. On Bulletin Boards and on twitter its shares are ramped by an army of devoted followers. They are on the ramp again today and the shares are now £1.75 valuing this POS at £72 million. This is comedy. Already the loons are calling it back up to its peak of £6.90 and way beyond once again urging all to get involved before it is too late. If you dare to point out that the emperor has no clothes you are urged to “shut up and stop embarrassing yourself.” Well that does not work with me.

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3346 days ago

Vialogy Joke Company – Pre Placing Ramp Underway – Sell

What is the hot and sexy word in the world of oil and gas right now? Shale deposits. They are going to transform the world as we know it and so any mention of the s word is bound to get investors licking their lips as if they had just been promised a sure fire night in the sack with the lovely Cheryl Cole. And so if you are a loss making company that needs to raise cash fast what do you do? Yes, issue an RNS headlining the word “shale.” You do not need to mention any pesky details like fees, revenues or cash, the “s” word will do, the shares will move ahead and you can get another placing away. This brings me to AIM listed joke company Vialogy (VIY)

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3350 days ago

US Oil & Gas: Irish Danish Crapshoot in Nevada

I have been urged to tip shares in US Oil & Gas all summer. I resisted the urge. Every day an email or a tweet seemed to land one of a dedicated band of believers pointing out how the shares were already a 100 bagger as they headed up to £6.90. The believers reckoned that fair value was anywhere between £15 and £100 per share and that I should get on board as soon as possible. Today they are 89p. They were 35p on Thursday before the CEO embarked on a media blitz to start the ramp all over again. So should I clamber on board now? Er…

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3351 days ago

Caza Oil & Gas Q3 numbers – house broker sees shares going from 16.5p to 30p

AIM and TSX listed Caza Oil & Gas (CAZA) served up its Q3 numbers earlier this week and that has prompted house broker Cenkos to publish a buy note with a 30p target price – the stock is now 16.5p. I know that the house broker is never independent as it is paid a retainer but I reckon that on this occasion there is a good case.

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3352 days ago

Sefton Misleads Us All Again – Kansas Oil News Deconstructed

Sometimes reality becomes a parody of humour. In my recent spoof downfall video of AIM listed penny dreadful oil producer Sefton Resources I ended with Chairman Jim Ellerton suggesting that he had a cunning plan: buy a worthless Kansas oilfield for peanuts, spend millions on it and claim that suddenly he had an asset of value in order to get away another fundraising. Knock me down with a feather, Sefton has today announced details of just such a plan. And its statement is, as ever, grossly misleading. This company is running out of cash fast and my target price remains 0.01p ( at best). The shares today are off again at 1.225p valuing the company at £4.87 million. Now to today’s news and why the statement is so misleading.

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3354 days ago

Petrel Resources – Valuation Not Justifiable

Apologies to my friends John Teeling and David Horgan who run AIM listed Irish oil explorer Petrel Resources (PET) but the valuation of your company is just not justifiable. At 19.375p the company is valued at £14.4 million. Even the house broker Northland gives a valuation range of 3.6p (base case) to 14p (maximum best case). The share price is simply far too high and here is why.

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3355 days ago

Downfall Video - the Sefton Resources edition

I could not resist. I had a bit of trouble sleeping last night and the urge was just too strong. And so I have created my very own spoof Downfall Video – the Sefton Resources edition. Knowing full well that this will offend all sorts of folks, at least it has made me laugh and given me some pleasure. I hope that you enjoy it at least a bit.

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3358 days ago

Northern Petroleum Board Upgrade – A Step in the Right Direction

I tipped oil and gas producer and explorer Northern Petroleum on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and edited until this September at 13.75p. The shares raced ahead to almost 150p but have since declined to just 64.75p. But news out today suggests that the company is making a step in addressing one issue it has, next up we await drilling news from Guyane.

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3361 days ago

Caza Oil & Gas: Share spike on drill success but buy or sell?

Shares in AIM and TSX listed Caza Oil & Gas (CAZA) have spiked 28.6% higher today to 18p valuing the company at £29.61 million. Supporters of this Texan oil play, urge me to look at Caza claiming that it will hit 25p before Christmas. But I am always nervous about oil companies operating in the US but listed here. So buy as a red hot penny share or sell as the good news is already discounted – which is it? I had a long chat with the company this afternoon and came to a conclusion. What would JR Ewing say?

The news today came from the company’s Caza Ridge horizontal Bone Spring well on its Copperline Prospect in Lea County, New Mexico. The company states:

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3365 days ago

Sefton Resources Does a Tony Blair as it pumps stock ahead of Death Spiral share issue

War criminal, intern exploiter and former Prime Minister Tony Blair used to take great delight in announcing the same event a number of times in order to “work the spin cycle.” AIM listed penny share dreadful oil explorer Sefton Resources (LSE: SER) is playing the same game with an RNS today designed to show momentum but which shows nothing of the sort. This stock is still virtually worthless – my target price is 0.01p – but let me explain what is going on here.

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3367 days ago

Sefton – Why did your Nomad Resign? The short case now unanswerable

AIM Listed oil producer Sefton Resources (SER) has made two announcements today. I shall turn to its operational guff later but I start with news that (yet again) it has changed its Nomad – its adviser on AIM matters. This is critical and I have exclusive news on this – this change was not entirely voluntary. For the avoidance of doubt these shares remain more or less worthless and at 1.65p are a stonking short. Target price 0.01p. At best. Now to the Nomad.

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3372 days ago

How close is Sefton Resources to running out of cash?

I have addressed on numerous occasions the grotesque overvaluation of AIM listed oil producer Sefton Resources (SER) and its misleading RNS statements. I have addressed its inability to generate cash from operations. But now for the critical question: when does it run out of cash? I now seek to explain, give or take a few weeks, when that will be. This will not take long.

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3372 days ago

The Phony Phony Pharaoh and Sefton Resources

PrintTo give the Daily Mail credit it has now removed from its website the article suggesting that penny share dreadful oil producer and cash cow (for chairman Jim Ellerton but not for long suffering shareholders) Sefton Resources (LSE: SER) was producing 220 bopd from 20 wells on its Tapia field. We all know (and the Mail knows now as well) that the number is less than 100 bopd from a handful of wells. But the Mail has gone further.

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3373 days ago

Who is Playing the Press? Sefton and the Daily Mail

I have been a market reporter. I know how it works. Someone you know calls you with what seems like a good story. You run it. Your team is on the box that night. You file your article. Good job. But just occasionally you are being played. The question is by whom? And unless someone points out how you have been lied to you will trust that player again. So just to help Geoff Foster, the excellent market reporter at the Daily Mail: Geoff, my son, you were kippered yesterday on AIM listed penny dreadful oil stock Sefton Resources (LSE:SER). You may wish to put in a call today to see why.

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3374 days ago

Sefton – Al Fayed Excitement – Still worthless

Sefton (LSE:SER) groupies are terribly excited that Mohammed El Fayed has picked up 15 million shares (just over 3%) of their company. Er up to a point. And it makes no difference. The stock is worthless. My target remains 0.1p and it is a stonking short. Here is why.

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3376 days ago

Sefton Resources; ‘fess up you mislead on September output - sell down to 0.1p

I have time and time again asked questions about the utterly misleading statements issued by AIM listed Sefton Resources (SER) about its output in California. It seems that the company just cannot help itself because we now have proof that what it said about September data was misleading. Is it time for another RNS – correction or does the Nomad to this worthless enterprise (Fox Davies) not care about the truth anymore?

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3378 days ago

Sefton Resources: Bullying not the answer, answers are the answer

During the past three months I have asked a series of questions of Jim Ellerton the chairman of AIM listed penny dreadful oil producer Sefton Resources (SER). He has failed to produce a satisfactory answer to any of them. I regard the shares, at 1.25p as woefully overvalued – my target is 0.1p. Sefton’s latest tactic is to waste shareholders cash on bullying its critics.

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3383 days ago

Sefton Resources - I am now going for an outright kill - individual well data analysed

I am indebted to my pal Brokerman Daniel for the link to data on individual wells operated by AIM listed penny share oil producer Sefton Resources (SER) in California as it illustrates exactly why its assets are so utterly worthless. Read this data in conjunction with my most recent article and then think carefully about the issue of capex required to grow output.

And I should warn Sefton that I am not finished with it. I am now going for the kill and as such there is another article on its way later today. Pro tem the target price for the shares ( now 1.175p) is 0.1p. That target may be revised shortly but not upwards.

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3386 days ago

Range Resources – what on earth is the CEO saying?

I have been a bear of AIM listed penny share oil dreadful Range Resources (LSE:RRL) for some months. I remain a bear with the shares at 4.87p valuing the company at £114 million. But my attention is now drawn to a quite remarkable interview given by CEO Pater Landau with the blogger Brokerman Daniel. Dan is a good fellow but this stuff is extraordinary and makes me more bearish than ever. Dan and I disagree on this one and here is why.

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3387 days ago

Range, Sefton, Qihang etc – Revenue and FREE cashflow

You know my views on all three stocks. More on Range (LSE:RRL) later but it is still a sell with a 1.5p target after today’s news. Sefton (LSE SER) at 1.16p remains a sell down to 0.1p. At 13p Qihang Equipment (LSE: QIH) is also a sell with a target price of 0.1p. But I note BB comments about these penny share dreadfuls which just nag on about production levels and compare that to the market cap and insist that I have got it all wrong. Well here is why the BB morons need to rethink – and incidentally this applies to all companies.

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3388 days ago

Sefton Resources IR Shindig – Jim Ellerton skewered, buggered and humiliated

Give him his dues, Jim Ellerton, chairman of AIM listed oil penny share dreadful Sefton Resources (LSE:SER) took his public skewering, buggering and abject humiliation with some grace. But, make no mistake, his IR Shindig at London’s Armourer’s Hall last night was utterly disastrous. He might find a few more suckers to buy his stock – some folks are so stupid that they deserve to lose money. But the admissions extracted, the accusations he could not answer and a presentation that is now, I gather on Sefton’s website, and which basically shows why this company is such a worthless POS left objective and experienced observers in no doubt as to where this is heading. Down. I summarise below the main skewerings of an event which has been captured on video which I may release in part shortly. For the avoidance of doubt my target price is 0.1p.

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3390 days ago

Gotcha! Sefton Resources – The Grim Truth starts to emerge

IM listed oil producing penny share dreadful Sefton Resources (LSE: SER) has today issued an RNS which is (by its standards) half way to being accurate. Even so, it is pretty grim. The shares have plunged by 14.5% to a new all time low of 1.325p but I remain of the view that they are worth no more than a fraction of that. They are now 99% down from the IPO price a decade ago, during which time chairman Jim Ellerton has made millions of pounds from excessive boardroom fees. But the stock will fall again and again over the coming years as Sefton’s true predicament emerges. I shall explain below why this is a conviction sell.

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3393 days ago

Sefton Resources: Half Price Pizza ahead of IR Event 9th October

As you may be aware I am not a great fan of AIM listed penny share dreadful oil and gas outfit Sefton Resources (LSE: SER). Its RNS statements are a disgraceful exercise in smoke and mirrors. While investors have lost 98.5% since its IPO as the shares now languish at 1.575p, Chairman Jim Ellerton has trousered millions of pounds over the years. After ten fund raisings in the past three years Sefton is still not generating cash (after bloated PLC costs). I doubt it ever will and frankly I still think the shares are still at least 80% overvalued but Jim reckons that all he needs to do is get the message across to investors. So I am here to help.There is no need for Jim to thank me I am just an all round nice guy. What are you doing on Tuesday 9th October and how would you like a half price pizza as a bonus?

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3394 days ago

Northern Petroleum/Wessex – short delay on Guyane News ( and Tullow note)

Followers of AIM listed oil stocks Northern Petroleum (LSE:NOP) and Wessex Exploration (LSE:WSX) might have been expecting news from the second well to be drilled in Guyane in early November. I should warn them that it now looks likely to be late November. It does not change the story for Wessex or Northern much of an iota as I shall explain below, but update your calendars.

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3403 days ago

Sefton Resources You couldn’t make it up… well they could - Utter Bullshit

Another day and another release from AIM listed oil and gas penny share dreadful Sefton Resources (SER) which is laden with optimism but tells you absolutely nothing. But it does at least appear that there is some movement on disclosure – i.e. it admits that the market was misled but it has not admitted to the big lie. The shares are up on the hype but remain a stonking short ahead of the next inevitable issue of equity to pay chairman Jim Ellerton’s monstrous fees

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