Personal and undiluted views
oil stocks

244 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 19: Three hours of 2 CEO's in the doghouse and Gary Newman on AIM shares that are flying

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with 2 CEOs of companies where I own shares and bought more after these interviews: Eldur Olafsson of AEG Gold (AEXG) and Andrew Bell of Red Rock Resources (RRR). In both cases I explain why I bought more. Then it is Gary Newman on small caps, oil stocks and mining stocks, where there is value and what he is buying. You can access the show HERE 

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301 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Matt Hancock you have now become a compulsive liar - Olaf escapes to Wales

I start with Joshua’s Advent calendar, where window 20 leads neatly to Lyin’ Matt Hancock and the illegal escape of daughter Olaf and her mother Big Nose to stay with Olaf’s grandmother in West Wales. Then I discuss the difference between contrarian investing and bad investing with reference to Peter Brailey’s article today on oil stocks. Finally I flag up what to expect from 23rd December on this website. Get your camera ready!

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651 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: My condolences Mr Corbyn on what must be a terribly sad day for you

I jest. The death of Qassem Soleimani sees one more evil bastard heading to hell. While those with #TrumpDerangementSyndrome will shed tears for this Jew hating, terror loving mass murderer, I do not but discuss the impact of this latest Trump triumph on the region, on the oil price and on oil stocks. I look at Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG) and at Zenith Energy (ZEN) whrre I am contacted by material shareholders who want regime change something that makes Anglo’s desire to own Zenith shares even more bonkers. Finally I suggest that unless Bidstack (BIDS) clarifies three matters urgently its shares will continue to collapse.

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2022 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 4 April: Paul, can I say that Condor & Powerhouse are talking cock?

I a not sure what I am allowed to say these days since Paul Scott issued his language diktat. But I start by saying thanks to those who have emailed or tweeted me about my personal news today but then explain why I am spending a day cooped up in London with the charming Halimah. Then it is onto Condor Gold (CNR) and Powerhouse (PHE) which are talking cock. Then I remember my question of AIM's disappearing oil stocks in light of news today from Caza (CAZA). I concur with Steve Moore regarding Sepura (SEPU) and ask a few questions about Port Erin (PEBI) the vehicle of my old pal Jim Mellon, shares in which appear to be collapsing. There is also more comment on Strat Aero (AERO) and Stratmin (STGR). 

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2095 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 22 January: more Red Flags for Paul to ignore, Petroceltic loons & Frontier bastards

Warning: This Podcast contains bad langauge throughout as well as a couple of mother in law jokes. In it I cover TrakM8 (TRAK), Petroceltic (PCI), Frontier Resources (FRI), criminals who should be in jail, Plethora (PLE), Pinnacle Technology (PINN), Plutus Powergen (PPG), Fusionex (FXI) and the fate of those follishly buying into shitty little oil stocks today.

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2100 days ago

Eleven Oil stocks heading for Zero

The weekend news from the oil sector is grim. I am not sure that folks out there in, what Malcolm Stacey might term, punterland realise just how grim it is. There is a massive PR and IR industry supporting the proposition that things can only get better. Au contraire, for the next few months at least, they are going to get a lot worse. And in that spirit I offer up a list of eleven oil E&Ps to sell now, to get out what and while you can, as they could well hit zero. 

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2235 days ago

Tom Winnifrith BearCast 4 September - how many AIM oil companies will disappear by April 1?

What has happened to the IPO of Lenigas Cuba? Only asking. Meanwhile I wonder what percentage of the 100 oil companies on the AIM casino will still be on the casino and engaged in oil by April 1 2016? I suggest three routes by which they will exit stage left and hazard a guess. I reckon it will be 82 left. And I discuss denial in oil versus mining and why I am almost tempted by mining stocks again

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2408 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 14 March

Just a quick mention of the 57 year old punk who made my week - the full article is HERE. In the main podcast I look at oil stocks and ask is it time to buy? The answer is no - Gulf Keystone and Afren could both still fall by another 75%. I look at them, Igas and Mosman. Then onto why small City brokers are ALL failing and what needs to change.

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2461 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Reader Request Oilcast - 21 January

In response to emails and tweets following my macro comments on investing in oil stocks yesterday HERE, in this podcast I look at: Afren, Ithaca Energy, Hurricane Energy, Mosman Oil & Gas, Fastnet and Sefton Resources and at the idea that there is already blood on oilie street - there is not!

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2462 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 20 January - oil prices, oil stocks and time to revisit 0p target for Quindell?

In today's podcast I start with oil stocks and oil prices and discuss why I would not touch any of them with a bargepole - particular mentions of Tangiers Petroleum, Falklands Oil & gas, Rockhopper, Igas, Northern Petroleum and the rampers of Mosman Oil & Gas. I then move onto Quindell discussing whether my 0p target is too low.

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2468 days ago

Lucian Miers: 3 oil shorts

Infamous bear raider Lucian Miers is of the view that the oil price is not going to spike higher in a hurry and that this is going to cause real pain across the sector. He has made money shorting Afren (AFR) where the debt looks company consuming at current oil prices but perhaps the bid will save it so Miers has closed that position. However...

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2469 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast special - 4 oil stocks and a recruiter

In this podcast I look at levels of disclosure in trading statements and how only some companies understand who owns them (shareholders). I cover, en passant ,Michael Page and in detail Igas, Leyshon Energy, Iofina and Northern Petroleum

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2476 days ago

Tom Winnifrith's Bearcast - 6 January

Why am I in a good mood? The promise of dinner with Ms Argyle next week perhaps? I do not know but it all flowed out today in this podcast. So on the agenda: BP, Tern (target price 2p because I am a generous nice guy - but don't let on as I have a reputation to protect), Asia Resource, Nanoco, LGO Energy and oil stocks again.

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2477 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 5th January

The working year starts a proper and I am in a good mood which is bad news for the low life on the AIM Casino. On the agenda today: Enegi Oil, LGO Oil, Iofina, Mosman Oil & Gas, oil stocks, Chris Oil & his share tips, Globo, Naibu, Jiasen, Camkids and China Chaintek ( the China Norfolks), Quindell, and - in some detail - Tern.

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2482 days ago

Tom Winnifrith’s share tips for 2015 No 2 – sell Igas at 39.5p – target cut to 10p

In my macro themes for 2015 article HERE I stated that I was fundamentally bearish on equities and as such half of my ten tips of the year would be shorts. Another theme for 2015 (as it was for 2014) was an extreme aversion to oil stocks. In that vein I return to Igas (IGAS) which I first suggested shorting at 56p a month or so ago HERE but where I am now halving my target price to 10p making this my second top short for 2015.

The macro climate is clearly not favourable and this poses a particular problem for overborrowed Igas. Its own broker Canaccord speculates that at $90 oil the company could breach the minimum cash ($15 million) on its bond covenants in 2015. Crude is now at c$60 and will – IMHO – fall before it rallies so with a debt breach looming the company needs to do an equity raise and to do it soon.

But given that the shares have fallen from c160p as a 12 month high, investors nursing 75% losses are not going to be gagging for such a placing. One leading resource broker I spoke to reckons that he could get it away but only at 10p.  So going short now and looking to buy back into the placing seems a smart move.

Igas has another problem. Its CEO Andrew “Piggy” Austin 

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2500 days ago

Tom Winnifrith BearCast - 80% of AIM oil stocks to go bust?

Okay that grabbed your attention. I do not believe it but that was the claim made by an industry grey hair as we chatted yesterday. Some will go under however, the world has changed. I look at IGAS, Northern Petroleum, Adriatic Oil, Spitfire Oil, Mosman Oil & Gas in particular and the sector in general in a podcast special.

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2513 days ago

Weekly Video postcard #91 - The Peasants let The establishment have it & they dont like it up 'em

This week's video postcard looks at how the peasantry (you and me) are revolting using new media against the political and media bubble dwellers, the establishment. Matthew Parris does not like it but I loves it as you can see on the video.

Over on ShareProphets on the matter of oil stocks our writers are divided. Ben Turney sees the recent OPEC meeting as disastrous for AIM listed oil shares (HERE). On the other hand Chris Oil (HERE) and Paul Curtis (HERE) argue that the bad news is more than discounted and are buyers of the sector. I started my career as an oil analyst and so what do think? You can find out HERE

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2552 days ago

Bearcast from Tom Winnifrith - 16th October

I guess my warnings about equities being overvalued are being vindicated. Sorry Malcom S. and Wilderides! And naturaly I start with that. However there are other matters to discuss in this podcast:

The nature of dead cat bounces, Monitise, Quindell, Sirius Petroleum, oil stocks and my lunch yesterday and more...

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2674 days ago

How quickly sentiment changes – ref small oil stocks: the force is with them

I had lunch yesterday in Bristol with an old pal from the oil industry. A few months ago his AIM listed company tied to raise a few hundred thousand pounds and boy was it hard work. The other day he raised well over a million quid and he said he could have done it twice over. Has anything changed with his company? Not really.  This is just sentiment.

However, I caution that this is not a change that has affected all oil stocks on AIM. The bigger more cumbersome plays have so disgraced themselves with executive greed (I think particularly here of the pigs on the Northern Petroleum (NOP) board awarding themselves bonuses after racking up record losses) and operational failure in recent years that they still cannot be forgiven.

Instead it is the tiny pure exploration play with no pretention of becoming integrated E&P’s that are flying. Mosman Oil & Gas, Tangiers Petroleum, Astar etc have all raced ahead in the past week. Mosman actually found something with the other two it is just anticipation and in the case of Astar bogus RNS releases. What exactly has Mosman found? Well we do not know, but the mood music now is “buy quickly, ask questions later” which is a total change from a few months ago.

Having been a no-go area for years UK onshore is now suddenly hot once again – hence excitement at UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) – where RMPC owns shares -  and

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3071 days ago

Exclusive: Leni Gas Mediterranean: The smoking gun? Good News for Leni

The legal battle between Aim listed Mediterranean Oil & Gas (MOG)  and AIM listed Leni Gas & Oil (LGO)  is shaping up to be a barrel of laughs for neutral observers but, not – I suspect – for Mediterranean and its CEO Dr Bill Higgs. Sources close to Leni Gas have steered us towards what appears to be a bit of a smoking gun.

By way of background: Leni sold its 10% stake in a Maltese exploration block to Mediterranean for $1 on August 1st. 23 days later Mediterranean announced a farm in deal with mighty Genel which analysts reckon valued the Leni stake at $9 million. Leni is suing claiming that Dr Higgs misrepresented the position on August 1st. This is not a case about contract law – the claim made by Leni is of misrepresentation.

Firstly it is pointed out that Leni Gas never offered to sell its shares for $1.

 

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3094 days ago

No rush to buy resource stocks

Calling the bottom of any market is always impossible. I leave that to cleverer, if illiterate, folk than me. i.e. chartists like my good pal Zak Mir. But it strikes me that those who regard now as an opportune time to get back into mining (and plausibly oil) stocks are getting ahead of themselves. Yes, the sectors have performed abjectly. But I sense that there is far worse to come.

The story starts a few years ago when gold was racing ahead, folks were convinced that China would consume 120% of every tonne of base metals produced and that it would do the same for oil. Extrapolating these macro trends into a super cycle allowed an awful lot of marginal project,s or even non-projects, and arguably just dreams, to gain a stock market listing and secure equity finance. In the four or five years that have followed a few things have changed.

Firstly, it has become abundantly clear to investors that management teams across the resources sectors live the life of riley, awarding themselves huge pay packages and jetting here there and everywhere at vast expense. Generally having a great old time.

Secondly, very few of these management teams have delivered anything in terms of value creation. There are actually more mining companies in the world than there are projects to work on

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3164 days ago

Video Postcard Number 28

A new location – I hope that the sound and picture are okay. I think I have got it nailed. Anyhow here it is.

On the Agenda
1. The poverty of quality oil stocks in London
2. Ditto mining sshares
3. Why the AIM system is bust
4. How it can be reformed
5. Searching out quality investments in the UK
6. New tips from myself and Steve Moore on Nifty Fifty.
7. The failures of Call Me Dave

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3231 days ago

Northern Petroleum/Wessex/Tullow – GCSE Geography Lesson for Morons

PrintYesterday Tullow (LSE:TLW) announced that it had let its interests in Guyana drop. The press office at Northern Petroleum (LSE:NOP) has fielded a number of calls about how Northern was going to proceed with its drilling campaign in the area. Is this an indictment of how badly history is taught in schools or how badly geography is taught?

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3239 days ago

Sell Wessex Exploration – Buy Northern Petroleum

Shares in both AIM listed oil stocks have slumped today. Northern (LSE:NOP) is off by c14% at 54.75p, Wessex (LSE:WSX) by 21% at 4.8p. Not a good day for either. The reason is that the Zaedyus-2 well in Guyane does not appear to have found commercial oil although we will not get full data for another ten days or so – logging starts tomorrow. Though I am a Northern bull I am in a sense vindicated as well ahead of drilling I argued that folks should take a pair trade: buy Northern at 67p and sell Wessex at a share price of 8.375p. If you followed that pair trade you would be a net 24% ahead. That is smart investing.

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3242 days ago

Video Postcard Number 17

I hope the sound and light work here. It was filmed in my father’s conservatory in Warwickshire – not exactly an ideal studio but then is not the BBC. That has to be a point in my favour. The video is about eleven and a half minutes long.

On the Agenda

1.Oil stocks – the reasons for selective bearishness

- funding issues, how the recent stream of drill failures have had a disproportionate impact on the ability to raise capital in this sector

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3246 days ago

A Magnificent Six Oil shorts for today

Having called both Falklands Oil & Gas (LSE:FOGL) and Borders & Southern (LSE:BOR) pretty brilliantly as oil junior shorts my pal the bear raider Evil Knievil and I had a good chat about which of the 90 or so juniors out there are the best shorts now. The odd thing is that despite a series of disasters across the sector, private investors still seem to be in love with a raft of pretty ordinary juniors. The astute commentator Was Shakoor summed it up the other day on twitter “why is it that across a string of wells where there is said to be a 15% chance of success only 5% seem to be successful?”

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3246 days ago

Falklands Oil & Gas & Borders & Southern, Vindicated by another duff well I say Sell again

Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) has today published a pretty disastrous statement on results from its Scotia well. The shares have plunged to 37.5p. I am sorry for those who have lost money but I warned folks to sell this at 67.5p on 19th July and again at 69.5p on 17th September. I also warned folks to bail out of fellow Falklands Play Borders & Southern (BOR) at 32.5p on August 27th. Its shares are now 16.875p. Those siren calls were greeted with hoots of Bulletin Board derision, I am not expecting any apologies or praise today. Perhaps the BB loons will not take note of the new situation today

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3286 days ago

Wessex Exploration vs Northern Petroleum – madness

Shares in both Wessex Exploration (WSX) and Northern Petroleum (NOP) have moved ahead sharply in recent days. We all know why these AIM listed oil explorers are in demand. Drilling is underway of the Zaedyus well in Guyane. This might well be a monster and both companies have a 1.25% stake in it. But the respective valuations are now insane.

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3311 days ago

How much has chairman Jim Ellerton made from Sefton Resources?

You will be aware of my concerns about AIM listed Sefton Resources (SER) shares in which traded at 95p in 2001 and are 1.55p today. The company has yet to comment or issue legal proceedings about my article of Friday which invited it and its chairman Jim Ellerton to explain why successive RNS statements were not lies. This is a company that has raised equity by issuing shares 10 times in the past 3 years. Where does it all go? Have a guess.

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3317 days ago

Sell Falklands Oil & Gas after Loligo news - and Borders too!

AIM listed oil darling Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) has announced the results of its Loligo well and it is bad news for both the company and for others operating in the region such as Borders & Southern (BOR). Reaction from BB and penny share punters has been mixed – some are in love and cannot see or choose not to see the truth. Others write the area off altogether. As ever the truth lies somewhere in between.

I refer, as ever to twitter, to see what the punters say. And so one fellow writes

#BOR came in, #FOGL came in – with more to come from the #Falklands Southern Basin. For all those who held, Nice One !!

And another counters:

Loligo fogl is uncommercial TIGHT SAND so was LIZ a bloody disaster get out while you can I did warn fellow twitter this was not good.

As they say it takes two to make a market.

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3338 days ago

Range Resources, Red Emperor and Horn Petroleum – sell the lot: Puntland a duster

The second Puntland well is a duster. No oil. Game over. Consequently you should not wait for the next promote – as soon as you can sell shares in AIM listed oil stocks Red Emperor (RMP), Range Resources (RRL) and TSXV listed Horn Petroleum. I warned you to sell Range on Friday. Predictably I got a stack of abuse (you do not understand, blah, blah, blah) and so I explained again over the weekend (no doubt generating more anger from those who have fallen in love with this share). But now you need to look at this matter dispassionately and simply bail.

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3374 days ago

The Middle East and why you need oil exposure

Dr Doom, aka Nouriel Roubini, talked last week of a perfect storm in 2013. One component of that storm is a war between the West and Iran. I am not sure that it has to be Iran but there are stacks of other tinderboxes waiting to go up in that region and that has profound implications for the oil price.

As I am sure you are aware, the Islamofascists who rule Iran are trying to build a nuclear bomb. And, being complete nutters, they have also made some pretty clear comments about how much they would like to see Israel wiped off this planet. Putting two and two together (that is an A bomb + prize grade Jew hating Islamofascists) and there is potentially a problem. I do not believe the West should intervene in this matter. We should neither get involved militarily nor should we complain when the Israeli’s bomb Iran back into the Stone Age with a pre-emptive strike as a matter of self defence. The best way to support Israel and to prevent another holocaust is to let her get on with it.

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3377 days ago

Northern Petroleum or a Falklands Explorer? Investing vs Punting

The Bulletin Board crazies love the Falkland Island explorers. Sometimes they zoom ahead. Sometimes they crash. But every day thousands of words are exchanged between these various loons, none of which add much, if anything, to the sum of human knowledge and nearly all of which are bullish. Real investing is so dull when you can enjoy the fun of the casino with companies such as Falklands Oil & Gas (FOGL) or Rockhopper (RKH). If Bob Diamond was an oil man he’d be floating another Falklands explorer: why bother with dull profitable companies such as Northern Petroleum (NOP). He’d probably short Northern (with other folk’s cash) just for the hell of it.

But here’s the rub, companies such as Falklands Oil & Gas are a total punt

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3403 days ago

Max Petroleum (basket case) – Not remotely tempted, even at 3.99p

On Friday AIM listed Max Petroleum (MAX) admitted to suffering yet more delays on its flagship well. But worse still it also admitted that it was $54 million in debt and would soon breach its headroom debt facility of $58 million. The company says that in current market conditions ( plus regulatory changes in Kazakhstan – what in Hades that means I know not what) it is finding it impossible to raise equity. And so it must go to its banker (Macquarie) or any other banker. I see that the BB loons are still blathering on about the cash Max generates and its exploration upside. Oh please….

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3413 days ago

Cairn bid for Nautical – what next?

Cairn Energy (CNE) has today announced an agreed 450p a share cash bid for Nautical Petroleum (NPE). This is a 51% premium to the share price pre-talks but a discount to where some folks value Nautical (Westhouse reckons it is worth 550p and that a higher offer may emerge). What does this tell us about AIM listed oil stocks and also where to hunt for value.

Well firstly, even at $86 oil the bigger producers are chucking off a lot of cash. Exploration is high risk (even with modern technology) and so with AIM small-mid caps pretty bombed out it is probably safer to bulk up reserves by “drilling in the City.” Hence the recent Shell bid for Cove and Dragon’s move on Bowleven and Premier’s bid for Encore. Remember also the Total bid for Wessex which its board ( for reasons I simply cannot fathom) rejected. There will be more bids.

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3419 days ago

Northern Petroleum – 61.75p: Surely a snip?

I am actually on holiday this week having fun writing about Cheryl Cole, Rinka, Polly Toynbee, cheap beer, Linkedin hackers and all sorts of things non-financial. But I am drawn back to the world finance by a crazy share price.

The market cap of this company with cash and which is profitable is now sub £60 million. This is crackers. I know that Northern Petroleum (NOP) has not always hit its targets but this is just silly season stuff.

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3422 days ago

Zoltav Resources – Overvalued hype?

AIM listed Zoltav Resources (ZOL) is a company hyped on the back of supposed involvement by Roman Abramovich’s son. At 2.58p it is capitalised at £9.7 million. In early 2011 it raised £2.25 million. It has – as far as we can tell – made six investments in large liquid Russian oil companies and sold three of them. Its PLC costs (not least some very expensive advisers) make me suspect that net current assets are now way below £2.5 million. Even at June 30th 2011 net assets were down to c$2.5 million ( shall we call it £1.6 million). My money is on net assets/cash being well below £1 million by now – hence the recent sale of shares in 3 of the 6 companies it has backed.

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