2013

4130 days ago

Do I believe the 2013 Equity Bull Case?

Equities have got off to a flying start to 2013 but do I believe that the surge will continue? Sort of Yes and sort on No. It is complicated. I certainly do not assume that buying any old stock and expecting it to surge will be a way to make money this year. It never is and 2013 will be tough in many ways.

Part of the early January surge is a relief rally thanks to the US not falling off the Fiscal Cliff. Well not yet anyway. Tough decisions with regard to spending have not been taken, merely postponed. The fundamental issue of America’s deficit and its ever growing debt has not been addressed; Ron Paul puts it thus:

Under the sequestration plan, government spending will increase by 1.6 trillion over the next eight years. Congress calls this a cut because without sequestration spending will increase by 1.7 trillion over the same time frame. Either way it is an increase in spending.

Yet even these minuscule cuts in the “projected rate of spending” were too much for Washington politicians to bear. The last minute “deal” was the worst of both worlds: higher taxes on nearly all Americans now and a promise to revisit these modest reductions in spending growth two months down the road. We were here before, when in 2011 Republicans demanded these automatic modest decreases in government spending down the road in exchange for a massive increase in the debt ceiling. As the time drew closer, both parties clamored to avoid even these modest moves. Make no mistake: the spending addiction is a bipartisan problem.

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4133 days ago

My Fifth 2013 tip of the year ( of 7) is now live: a blue riband UK tech play for New Year's Eve

It is New Year’s Eve and my FIFTH share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) is now live ( here).

There are 2 more tips of the year 2013 to come

On 30th December my FOURTH share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) went live ( here).

On 29th December my 3rd share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) went live ( here).

On 28th December I published my second share tip of the year ( here).

The day before I published my first share tip of the year ( here).

On Boxing Day I published my macro-economic assumptions for 2013.

The next three tips will be published in various places. This article will be updated as each goes live with a link. And I shall send out a twitter alert. That is apart from the 7th tip of the year which will be the first tip published on my new venture with ADVFN – Onefreesharetip.com – it will go out at 9 AM on the 2nd of January.

The only way to receive that tip in your email is to register HERE at OneFreesharetip.com .

And if you do, you will then get one free share tip each and every working day from an all star panel of around 20 share tipsters and commentators.

So you might as well join up anyway. .

Go on, you know it makes senes

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4137 days ago

My third "share tip of the year" 2013 is live ( 29 Dec)

It is 29th December and my THIRD share tip of the year ( of SEVEN) is now live ( here).

There are 4 more tips of the year 2013 to come

Yesterday I published my second share tip of the year is now live ( here).

The day before I published my first share tip of the year ( here).

On Boxing Day I published my macro-economic assumptions for 2013.

The next four tips will be published in various places. This article will be updated as each goes live with a link. And I shall send out a twitter alert. That is apart from the 7th tip of the year which will be the first tip published on my new venture with ADVFN – Onefreesharetip.com – it will go out at 9 AM on the 2nd of January.

The only way to receive that tip in your email is to register HERE at OneFreesharetip.com .

And if you do, you will then get one free share tip each and every working day from an all star panel of around 20 share tipsters and commentators.

So you might as well join up anyway. .

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4137 days ago

Greggs – A bad 2012, 2013 will be worse: change of stance

I have always been a fan of Greggs (GRG) the UK’s largest retailer of sausage rolls, puff pastries and all the other sort of comfort food that helped to give me diabetes. The company has always had net cash, benefitted from operational gearing and delivered solid year on year earnings increases. But in 2012 things appeared to start to go slightly awry and the share price has fallen from 550p at the start of the year to 458p. As recently as 7th November I foreasaw a bounce ( at 470p) but I have been reviewing my assumptions about UK consumer behaviour. As such I apologise for that bad share tip, a volte face is on the way.I would like to buy this stock as fundamentally it is a good business serving six million Britons each week. But ….

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