Personal and undiluted views
BP

68 days ago

BP – Q2 results, creating value now and for the future?

BP (BP.) has announced second quarter of the year results emphasising “generating value for our shareholders today while we transition the company for the future”. Sounds good, but what’s the detail?

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194 days ago

BP – trading and net debt position ahead of expectations, Income Buy

An “update on progress towards net debt target”-titled announcement from BP (BP.), which includes a claim of “earlier than anticipated delivery of disposal proceeds combined with very strong business performance during the first quarter”. This sounds good.

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251 days ago

BP – Q4 results, still an Income buy!

Previously updating on BP (BP.), in October we concluded with the shares currently down to below 200p (they were above 500p early this year) and yielding around 8%, we continue to see long-term recovery and income value from here. Therefore, still a long-term Income buy. They’re currently still above 250p on the back of fourth quarter 2020 results but they are still cheap.

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359 days ago

BP – Q3 results, “Performance improving despite difficult environment”?...

BP (BP.) has announced its Q3 results emphasising “Performance improving despite difficult environment”…

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439 days ago

BP – results and dividend cut… we’re not surprised the shares rise…

BP (BP.) has announced second quarter and half-year results including “underlying replacement cost loss for the quarter was $6.7 billion, compared with a profit of $2.8 billion for the same period a year earlier… A dividend of 5.25 cents per share was announced for the quarter, compared to 10.5 cents per share for the previous quarter” ($2.1 billion)… and the shares have responded higher to nearer 300p…

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444 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: masks in Manchester to a water deprived Kambos and the Greek Hovel

I will start writing up my Greek diary tomorrow when I feel a bit more rested after the travel. But in this podcast, I give you a taster of a few of my thoughts and of life here in Kambos where I shook a man’s hand for the first time in months yesterday. I also look at the latest Covid madness from bonkers Boris and at BP (BP.) and the question of its dividend. Of course it should be slashed and if it is, I’d expect the shares to bounce.

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472 days ago

BP – agreement to sell petrochemicals business, still a long-term income buy?

Shares in BP (BP.) closed the prior week heading down towards 300p but are currently back above 310p, particularly following an “agrees to sell petrochemicals business to INEOS announcement…

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492 days ago

BP – new CEO sounding loony… or being very clever?

“revises price assumptions; expects charges at 2Q” announcement from BP (BP.), including February-commenced CEO Bernard Looney stating “in February we set out to become a net zero company by 2050 or sooner… we have been reviewing our price assumptions over a longer horizon. That work has been informed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which increasingly looks as if it will have an enduring economic impact”. Loony or very clever?…

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497 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: are we at peak oil pessimism as BP drinks the Green shit Kool aid?

We have now hit £48,000 with gift aid for Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks so I thank you all. In today’s show I look at Novacyt (NCYT) and Avacta (AVCT) and sticking with the corona bubble theme at Primark and shopping today and the problems furlough is now creating.  I look at Metro (MTRO) and then finally at the big news from BP (BP.)

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559 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: so where should I invest my SIPP Windfall?

It looks like the cash that I did not realise until a few months ago I had, will finally arrive in my SIPP this week. so where will I invest it? I discuss my outlook for equities in general, what I shall avoid and then Optibiotix (OPTI). R4E (R4E), Imperial Brands (IMB), Centamin (CEY), Tesco (TSCO), BP (BP.), Shell (RDSB), Wishbone Gold (WSBN) Red Rock (RRR) and Fox Marble (FOX).

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568 days ago

BP – trading and COVID-19 update...

A market and COVID-19 response update from BP (BP.) – and the shares 3% lower at 333.7p on the back of it…

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586 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: if you want to feel suicidal, buy oil shares then talk to Peter Brailey

I start with my family and Coronavirus as I discuss in full HERE. then should we taxpayers bail out all businesses? Even frauds? Or the Mob? I explain why folks like our in house Euro loon J Price are so badly wrong. I then look at Laura Ashley (ALY), Itaconix (ITX) and then the oil stocks. Could oil really hit $3 a barrel? Or $10? I look at Echo Energy (TOAST), Nostra Terra (TOAST), Premier Oil (PMO), Tullow Oil (TLW), BP (BP.) and Shell (RDSB

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593 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: stockmarket and oil price crash special

Don’t worry the sun will still rise tomorrow and we are not ALL going to die of Coronavirus. I discuss the oil price crash and stockmarket slump and look in particular at: Tern (TERN), Carnival (CCL), Bidstack (BIDS), Versarien (VRS), the antics of market makers, Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Bahamas Petroleum (BPC), BP (BP.), Shell (RDSB), Tullow (TLW), Optibiotix (OPTI) and Premier Oil (PMO)

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719 days ago

BP – Q3 2019 results review

BP (BP.) has announced a third quarter underlying replacement cost profit of $2.3 billion, compared to $3.8 billion a year earlier, though also a maintained $0.1025 quarterly dividend per share and that it’s “making strong progress with our divestment plans and building exciting new opportunities in fast-growing downstream markets in Asia”

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813 days ago

BP – Q2 2019 results, an Income buy?

BP (BP.) has announced 2019 second quarter results, emphasising “continuing to deliver strong performance and strategic progress”

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899 days ago

BP – Q1 2019 results, remains an Income buy

BP (BP.) has announced 2019 first quarter results, emphasising “resilient earnings and cash flow, continued strategic progress”

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998 days ago

The Only Fund manager worse than Neil Woodford - the BBC doubles up on Tesla

In the old days ( i.e only three years ago) the BBC pension fund was invested, as it should have been in safe dividend plays like BP, Shell and BAT Industries. But that sort of portfolio played badly with the uber politically correct state funded broadcaster. So its all change. The new top 20 holdings as at 31 March 2018 are below.

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1097 days ago

BP - a buy for income

Shares in BP (BP.) approached 600p as summer dawned and again earlier this month. They’ve been hit in the recent sell-off though, despite - already offering a hefty dividend - the second quarter results having emphasised “momentum and the strength of our financial frame… we are increasing our dividend for the first time in almost four years. This reflects not just our commitment to growing distributions to shareholders but our confidence in the future”

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1229 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: In praise of Ed Croft, Martin Sorrell's hookers on expenses, & John Meyer must man up and take responsibility

I start by praising Ed Croft who despite all that I have said about him has donated £30 to my charity walk for Woodlarks. To those 90% of you listening who I have not insulted at all surely you can spare a tenner. We have now raised £6,263.16 (before gift aid), surely you can donate £10 HERE. Then I look at Martin Sorrell (ex WPP) and the hookers on expenses, Lord Browne of BP and the rent boy on expenses and natch I mention someone who put a sex toy and batteries and lots of lingerie on her expenses. Their crime is nothing to do with sex it is theft and I discuss that. Then it is onto Connect (CNCT) where I ponder its banking covenants and to Haydale Graphene (HAYD) where I wonder if the cash position is enough. Finally I explain to another J Meyer ( this time John not Julie, no relation) of SP Angel why the MySquar (MYSQ) fraud is HIS responsibility and what he needs to do ASAP

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1533 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast Special - the culture of corporate lying as I say GOTCHA to Telit

Following today's bombshell there can be no doubt that Telit Communications (TCM) is toast. Companies that lie and deceive so industrially in the way I demonstrated earlier HERE will always end in tears.  In this podcast I look at the culture of corporate lying and wrongdoing and what it means for you as an investor. I look at rent boys at BP then at Quindell (QPP), Globo (GBO) and of course, in the main, at Telit

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2015 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 15 April - In poor Phorm after lunch with Lucian

I woke up last night panicking that after staggering home from a boozy lunch with Lucian I had written a drunken piece laughing at all sorts of folks after Phorm admitted it was bust but that I had just written it becuase I felt like it not because it was true. Imagine my relief to discover that it was in fact true and with hindsight I think I write jolly well when drunk. Perhaps we should have a writing contest myself & Paul Scott both drunk vs two boring sober bastards. I digress. I look at BP and executive pay and unable to resist poking some fun at the ghastly Nicola Horlick and dreadful Channel 4 News. I look at 21st Century Technology ( C21), Gulf Keystone (GKP), Strat Aero (AERO), Grand Group (GIPO)) and 88 Energy (88E) where Lucian is short. In a sort of flashback I recall our discussion yesterday on 88 and recount it. 

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2022 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 10 April - hang FTSE fat cats from BP & elsewhere up with piano wire

FTSE 100 fat cats are in the news. They should be strung up with piano wire. I say this as a capitalist my father, a deluded lefty, nods in agreement in the background as I record. I should record that the old lefty was a managerial fat cat this morning as I dug his garden as an exploited worker. Referencing BP in particular I explain who is failing us and why it cannot go on like this.

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2033 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 31 March - Gable, Asian Citrus & LGO - going down the pan edition

A short bearcast as I am set to fly back to the UK soon. Shame, shame. I start with earnings visibility looking at Gable (GAH) and Asian Citrus (ACHL). One is a shite investment the other is going down the pan completely. Then it is onto LGO Energy (LGO) which, with the curse of Lenigas, is in the latter category. I explain why BP rumours are just bollocks.

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2043 days ago

Bulletin Board Moron OR Project Fear anti Brexit lunatic contest of the week - can you beat rentboy loving Lord Browne?

Let's widen the scope of the Bulletin Board Moron of the week contest this time to include the most ludicrous claims made by those in Project Fear, the campaign against Brexit. Yesterday Lord Browne of BP infamy claimed that leaving the EU meant that we might see another Auschwitz (see HERE) - can you trump that for scaremongering? Or do you just want to settle for nominating a common or garden Bulletin Board Moron who did not stiff shareholders with a bill for his rentboy? Whatever..please post all entries in the comments section below. Last week's contest...

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2045 days ago

Brexit joke scare story of the day - vote to stay in the EU or risk another Auschwitz

Project Fear becomes even more desperate in its attempts to scare us into staying in the EU. Today's "you couldn't make it up but we will anyway" comes from Lord Browne, the former boss of BP.

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2078 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: BP is an investment LGO is a crap gambling chip

LGO Energy (LGO) owning lunatic Wildes responds to yesterday's damning indictment of the David Lenigas created value destroying machine by saying that it was all down to the oil price and BP (BP.) was no better. In this podcasts I give the hard facts that show that Wildes is just wrong and explain why BP is an investment and is good news for all concerned while LGO is just a crap gambling chip which gains no-one other than the man exposed HERE, Jabba The Hutt.

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2091 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 2 Feb - why we are buying BP today at 335p

I have won £5 from Shipston's Buffett for tracking down a long lost cousin to whom he has not spoken in 50 years. That is my main achievment today. I shall comment on InternetQ (INTQ) and MX Oil (MXO) elsewhere. I start with a look at BP (BP.) and explain why we have bought the shares today. Then I look at Corero (CNS) in detail and at Condor Gold (CNR), Nighthawk (HAWK), Petroceltic (PCI), Mosman (MSMN) and Aureus (AUE) before a detailed look at the dog Blur (BLUR).

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2093 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 31 January - Is it time to buy oil shares aggressively?

The weekend press is full of stories of doom and gloom and dividend cuts for BP (BP.) and Shell and clearly there are a stack of smaller companies that are totally screwed and where shareholders are likely to face total wipeout. In that vein I discuss Magnolia (MAGP), Igas (IGAS), Gulf Keystone (GKP), XCite (XEL) and, of course, LGO Energy (TOAST).  But is there a case for buying oil shares as a long term invester. I look at a few cases from BP down to Union Jack Oil (UJO). Perhaps there is no rush but the time will come.

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2150 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 5 December - Six oil stocks heading to zero (and there are more) post OPEC

In this podcast I discuss OPEC and the oil price. I think you should have some oil exposure via BP (BP.A) and I am intyerested in a couple of gas plays, notably Ascent (AST). But I remain uber bearish on oil juniors as I have been (correctly) for four years. Among those heading for zero which I discuss are Gulf Keystone (GKP), Xcite Energy (XEL), IGAS (IGAS), Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN), Northern Petroleum (NOP) and LGO Energy (LGO). And there are others take may not hit zero within a year but which still face share price decimation such as Solo (SOLO) and the Horse Shite/ Horse Hill Gatwick Gusher plays.

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2190 days ago

Market abuser Chris Oil: Watch out BP and Shell - Sefton's coming for you

The man who claims that his family discovered the North Sea, who modestly describes himself as Britain's Buffett, the market abuser Chris Oil has today issued a stark warning to BP and Shell - their position is under threat...from Sefton Resources (SER) - net cash £300,000, no assets and set to be booted off AIM in less than a month. Well you heard it here first. Did his PR genius Steffi sign off on this tweet:

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2484 days ago

Tom Winnifrith's Bearcast - 6 January

Why am I in a good mood? The promise of dinner with Ms Argyle next week perhaps? I do not know but it all flowed out today in this podcast. So on the agenda: BP, Tern (target price 2p because I am a generous nice guy - but don't let on as I have a reputation to protect), Asia Resource, Nanoco, LGO Energy and oil stocks again.

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2697 days ago

The Most politically correct Museum in Britain just tells lies – Welcome to Cheddar lie land

Among the joys of half term week was a trip to the Cheddar Gorge. For someone whose maternal family comes from Dorset and who lives in Bristol with relatives across Somerset this may sound odd but in 46 years on this planet this was my first visit. I now have a ten year pass and so will be back to look inside a few more caves. And then there is the small museum.

It has some interesting displays on the history of Cheddar on cannibalism and on sex 5000 years ago. But it also manages to pack in what it terms a “modern perspective”, what the Daily Mail termed “political correctness gone mad” and what I would call just plain lies.

What enraged the Mail was that the Museum has replaced the terms AD and BC with BP (Before Present). Thus 0 AD is 2014 BP, 1066 is er….oh shite I can’t do the maths in my head BP You get the drift.

The Mail ranted on in a predictable fashion about how the Museum was abandoning Christ and offending good Christian folks. My objection is that the system – as demonstrated above – is clumsy and also silly. 1979 AD (the year that our Saviour, the blessed Thatcher came to power and thus Year 0 in a new system I propose) is right now 35 BP. But in January 2015 it becomes 36 BP. This is just silliness in a way that only politically correct lefties can regard as sensible.

But the Museum offended in a far worse way as it tried to explore the idea of man’s willingness to destroy his fellow man with these words on a poster “9/11 Religious zealots from poor Muslim countries destroy the Twin Towers, symbols of Western Consumerism.” Well that is a series of lies is it not? Yes it is.

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3086 days ago

Guest Post Robert Sutherland Smith BP QI Results - A Mixed bag

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over  at various places ( including Shareprophets.com naturally) on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 5th 2014. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BP. RSS writes:

One quarter’s results, usually gives an indication and little more about a  company’s progress in a particular year; particularly a company as large,  complex and international as BP  (BP.). But these are not usual times by any definition, so far as BP  is concerned. The accounting is complex; the headline figures dominated by a  massive exceptional item. Read more at

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3121 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BP

Robert Sutherland Smith is again proving that he is still alive with another guest post. Robert started his City career the year before I was born and is, I think, 157 years old. Fear not. He is very much alive and kicking. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. Robert is a speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BP although comic style makes me wonder what this child of the sixties has been smoking of late. RSS writes:

America, or at least its coastal region around the Gulf of Mexico – which was unfortunately flooded with crude oil from a BP platform a year or so ago – may be a land of dreams over the rainbow; but they are not necessarily pleasant dreams as BP – like Dorothy and her little do Toto from the “Wizard of Oz” which I watched with my grand-daughter over the weekend – are finding out. It is curious that the tin man in the film is made out of old oil drums and oil cans. But is BP “Dorothy” who eventually gets back to normality, or the “tin man” without a heart who does not?

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3181 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BP

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years at t1ps.com . He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. RSS today looks at BP in light of its latest trading statement.

Writing here on January 6th I concluded that a charge of ‘gross negligence’ against BP in regard to the continuing judicial saga of the case against BP for its role in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, was made less likely by a guilty plea to negligence from the sub-contractor oil well operator Trans Ocean. I added that, that such a helpful outcome might not represent the last word on BP’s outstanding liability; the ways of lawyers being wondrous. And so it has come to pass, something we learned more about as as part of a 2012 trading statement published on February 5th.

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3212 days ago

Guest Post: Robert Sutherland Smith on BP

Robert Sutherland Smith started his City career the year before I was born. He is, I think, 157 years old. He and I have worked together for almost eight years. at t1ps He is my friend and he is a very funny and intelligent chap. He is now branching out to celebrate his 158th by doing some freelance writing over at TradingResearchPoint on FTSE 350 Income stocks. He is a great one for focussing on yield. He is also going to do a monthly column for me on this blog on the subject that really interests him, life on Hampstead Heath. I am sure we all look forward to “Pond Life.” RSS today looks at BP. I cannot say that I disagree with his analysis.

One should always have some oil exposure in your portfolio. Those of us old enough ( and I certainly qualify on that count) can remember at least three oil shocks when events in the Middle East have sent the crude price soaring. While the rest of one’s portfolio tends to take a bit of a hit on such occasions, your oil stocks prosper. You need that hedge. And, although no expert on regional geo-politics, it strikes me that the Middle East is, as a region, rather more “combustible” today than it has been for many a year. Sooner or later it will go up in flames, the oil price will spike and shares in large scale oil producers will be re-rated rapidly and brutally. Until then the issue is what oil stock to hold and that brings me to BP (BP.). Is the yield on offer sufficient to both offset business risks and also give me a reasonable return until the oil price spikes as it will inevitably do at some stage?

However, I start not in the Orient but in the United States.

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