45 days ago

Centamin – ‘substantially improved’ Sukari life of mine plan, Buy

Centamin (CEY) has announced a new life of mine plan for its flagship Sukari gold mine in Egypt, emphasising a substantial improvement with significantly lower operational risk. That is good news from a 82.8p share price.


122 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: my gold stocks have 3 years to deliver but some are not in danger

In today’s bearcast I discuss what the BBC won’t be, yet more rain here in Greece. Then it is onto gold and my boredom. I discuss Ariana (AAU), Centamin (CEY), Kefi Gold & Copper (KEFI) – where I have swapped emails with ‘arry this weekend -, Amaroq (AMRQ) and Jubilee Metals (JLP).And yes there are now just 4 of 100 seats left for ShareStock. Ticket emails will be going out within 24 hours on logistics to those who have booked. If you have not, those 4 go on a first come first served basis HERE.


205 days ago

Centamin – interims, still a production-improving Buy

Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) has announced results for the first half of the 2023 calendar year emphasising “Improved results driven by strong operating performance and stringent cost management” and “in a robust position to deliver the next stage of growth including further optimisation at Sukari and continued development of the Doropo project”. Sounds good, and the shares have currently responded higher.


304 days ago

Centamin – first quarter 2023 report, a good start and further potential: BUY

Gold producer in Egypt Centamin (CEY) has announced “a good start” to 2023 and that it “look forwards to reporting later in the year on several additional projects which will deliver growth and underpin returns”. Good news from a current 105.3p share price?


337 days ago

Centamin – 2022 results, growth and dividend upside potential: BUY

Centamin (CEY) has announced its results for the 2022 calendar year and that it maintains a current year gold production guidance range of 450,000-480,000 ounces and remains on track to consistently return its Sukari mine in Egypt to production levels towards 500,000 ounces per annum from 2024.


386 days ago

Centamin – Q4 and full-year update, a progressing gold BUY

Centamin (CEY) has issued an update on the fourth quarter and full-year of 2022, including emphasising that it is now looking forward to further increasing gold production while continuing to manage cost pressures and progressing the multiple identified opportunities across its portfolio.


395 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the argument for not selling rubbish like Red Rock and Wishbone

I start off with why the Times‘ demands for a Sheriff of Tipsters smacks of glass houses and throwing stones. Has its own tipster declared all conflict of interests. Then onto gold, looking at my portfolio and why I have not sold Red Rock (RRR) and Wishbone Gold (WSBN) yet despite my grave governance reservations and their failure to monetise assets whose quality I start to doubt. So why not sell and reinvest in a higher quality play I own like Centamin (CEY), Ariana (AAU) or even Kefi Gold & Copper (KEFI). One reason was the illness that laid me so low I just forgot. But there are others which I explain in the podcast, my second of the day after this photo/podcast from Lake Vyrnwy which has given me great pleasure.


667 days ago

Centamin – Q1 update, production fall expected and we can now look to better times ahead

Centamin (CEY) has announced a quarterly update including “as planned, Q1 2022 production reflected the successful transition to owner mining in the underground… reiterates its 2022 full-year guidance”, so what of a share price response currently down closer to 90p?


756 days ago

Centamin – Q4 update, further recovery ahead

Centamin (CEY) has announced “the final quarter delivered what was a highly successful 2021” and that it is now looking forward to delivering on a clear roadmap to growing and unlocking further value from the Sukari gold mine in Egypt and its exploration portfolio. The shares have responded up to 93.425p and look to have much further to go.


1050 days ago

Centamin – remains a recovery buy

Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) announced results for the 2020 calendar year emphasising “record revenue of US$829 million… generated significant free cash flow, of US$142 million, a 91% increase, making it possible to propose and pay dividends attributable to 2020 of US$104 million”  but also ‘impacted guidance’. A recovery buy?


1067 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Buy, sell or hold Centamin

I start with harassment by phone call – 11 in three hours last night, 6 in 30 minutes starting this afternoon. It is not going to stop me writing about Zoetic (ZOE) and other frauds! Then onto a reader’s idea that £5.99 gets to tell me what NOT to write. Then onto Woodlarks. I did my first serious training walk yesterday which I’ll write up later but we now have FIVE walkers lined up for May 29 and Woodlarks desperately needs cash so please donate HERE. Finally a look at Centamin (CEY), not my greatest investment. But where now?


1125 days ago

Centamin – Q4 in-line and outlook reiterated: Buy

This has not been a very good share tip so far. But things are getting better for the company and the share price and they will get better still. It takes a while to restore both output and even longer to regain investor confidence. A Q4 2020 Report from Centamin (CEY) emphasises that 2020 results will be in-line with October guidance and reiterates the 2021 outlook . This has helped the shares higher but there is more to come. On what has not been a great tip so far we suggest averaging down.


1213 days ago

Centamin – near-term production outlook disappointment, but the long-term promise remains...

Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) has updated emphasising “the third quarter marked another solid performance”, yet the shares have dropped back to 131.3p. The reason is a reduction in guidance for 2021 but the market has over-reacted…


1218 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Should I put 80% of my portfolio into Centamin? Er.... No

I have done a rather good new podcast on the US election which annoyed  champagne socialist Darren Atwater greatly which tells you how good it is. You can access it HERE. In today’s bearcast I look at Centamin (CEY) and Kefi Copper & Gold (KEFI) as well as at almost insolvent con Supply@ME Capital (SYME).


1219 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Should Dad's funeral be in the White Bear and is Network International a stonking short?

I ponder this grave question after considering the illogical hateful restrictions we face in Shipston next week. In another podcast I raise the possibility that Donald Trump might win on November 3 because of factors the deadwood press and BBC opt to ignore. All is explained HERE. Then I discuss three sets of builders here at the Welsh Hovel who must be starting to dislike me. Then it is onto Centamin (CEY), Bidstack (BIDS) and Network International (NETW) – a £1.5 billion short?


1222 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Olaf imprisoned by Covid deranged Queens & my gold stocks reviewed

Queens Colleage Oxford has enccouraged students to snitch on their peers and my daughter, now under house arrest, has fallen victim. What a mad and dark world we live in. After discussing this I look at all the mining stocks I own and one I sold, reviewing where we are now and where the real excitement lies at: Kefi (KEFI), Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV), Centamin (CEY), AEX Gold (AEXG), Ariana (AAU), Asiamet (ARS), Jubilee Metals (JLP), Pensana (PRE) and Red Rock Resources (RRR).


1225 days ago

Centamin – a Gold buy...

We recommended shares in Centamin (CEY) amidst market panic in March and they rose faster than even we expected, seeing us take a more than 60%, little more than 1 month, profit. They went on to above 230p, but are currently 160p to buy following a “Sukari Operational Update”. We believe there to have been a big over-reaction to that update and so…


1250 days ago

A Grade share ramping from Big Dave Lenigas – the great man takes to facebook to discuss Greatland Gold

When is an exploration company worth £1 billion? Very rarely. When does its market cap reach £1 billion with almost no, or no, institutional support?  When you are in a bull market and the stock is being ramped by folks saying it could treble again.  Ask yourself would you rather own 40% of Centamin (CEY) which has cash, is producing vast amounts of gold and whose directors are not big sellers of stock or 100% of an exploration play with heavy boardroom selling like Greatland (GGP). Exactly…my thoughts too which is why I own Centamin. But Big David Lenigas owns Greatland and so writes on facebook:


1290 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: I will be spending a lot of time with the FCA it seems

I start with a few other comments on Greek Hovel matters. Then I move on to talk about three companies which I shall be or are discussing with the FCA: Zenith (ZEN), Eqtec (DOG), and Verditek (VDTK). Then onto NatWest Group (NWG) where I apologise for my bad language. Finally my thoughts on the gold price and comments on gold stocks I own: Centamin (CEY), Ariana (AAU), Kefi (KEFI), Bluebird Merchant (BMV), and Xtract (XTR).


1290 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Metro did not throw the kitchen sink at anything!

I end with a view from my office photo just to annoy Graham Neary. I also comment on the latest bonkers ideas from Boris about how to cripple the economy. Those are relevant as I discuss the assumptions made by Metro Bank (MTRO) and its Godawful results. Who is it trying to kid? It has certainly not thrown in the kitchen sink in terms of provisioning. There is far worse to come when the banking crisis really gets going. I discuss gold and ask those with a knowledge of cocaine to help Lucian out with a new valuation metric. I look at Centamin (CEY) and am not persuaded there is a new normal to justify a sub 4% prospective yield.


1290 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: My anger at R4E, my sympathy for Graham Neary & my question about Centamin

I do not wish to fall out with Nigel Wray and I do not really blame him for the Reach4Entertainment (R4E) news today but I explain my anger. Then I explain my sympathy for Graham Neary. Next up, results from Centamin (CEY) are great for we loyal shareholders but I ask what is the appropriate yield? Then onto Xtract Resources (XTR) and a phone call from Colin Bird. Treat the “Ford dip” as an opportunity!


1374 days ago

Last pension investment for a while – Malcolm Stacey please look away

Malcolm will not approve of this as he regards it as unethical. But I am getting older and, to date, Centamin (CEY) and San Leon (SLE) are the only dividend paying stocks in my pension. And that has to change


1410 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: so where should I invest my SIPP Windfall?

It looks like the cash that I did not realise until a few months ago I had, will finally arrive in my SIPP this week. so where will I invest it? I discuss my outlook for equities in general, what I shall avoid and then Optibiotix (OPTI). R4E (R4E), Imperial Brands (IMB), Centamin (CEY), Tesco (TSCO), BP (BP.), Shell (RDSB), Wishbone Gold (WSBN) Red Rock (RRR) and Fox Marble (FOX).


1823 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Sitting here thinking about the fraudster Rob Terry of Quindell infamy

I consider what Rob Terry is doing now as I contemplate the latest threat to Watchstone Group (WTG), Quindell (QPP) as was. I look back on a few other fraud busting successes but view them as fairly irrelevant. I am more proud of my work for Woodlarks and, in that vein, again urge you to sponsor Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks HERE.  I consider DeepMatter (DMTR), Audioboom (BOOM), Centamin (CEY), Yourgene (YGEN), Big Sofa (BST), I3 Energy (I3E) and Kavango (KAV)


3259 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 22 March

My main podcast of the day starts with the fun and games at Quindell where it seems as if the quisling blogs are in retreat. I go over the maths again. I then look at Centamin as oer Gary Newman's piece earlier and how the Arab world has changed and how that must make us value stocks operating out there. Finally I look at how to deal with the microcaps on the AIM Casino.


3880 days ago

Centamin Q2 numbers good but the bulls remain in dreamland

Centamin (CEY), the gold miner operating in the delightful peaceful paradise on earth that is Egypt has today announced Q2 production numbers. As a bear of this stock since last summer when Egypt headed down the Islamofascist route it would be churlish of me not to admit that the numbers are not excellent. They are superb. But with respect that is not the point.

Incidentally I called Centamin 100% correctly on the bear tack just as I had on the bull tack (tipped at 8p sold at 139p) but got heaps of abuse from Bulletin Board Morons for going bearish. Fear not, those who abused me, I am not looking for an apology. You have suffered enough with the financial losses you incurred as you dismissed me as a fool. I shall have another poolside beer and drink to your health. “Cheers…here’s to the Bulletin Board morons”


3900 days ago

Centamin - where is the RNS fellows?

If a company has major news it should treat all investors the same and issue an RNS. And with that in mind what the hell is gold miner Centamin (CEY) playing at? Telling a newswire journalist material information so that City investors are up to speed but mug punters without an access to a Reuters terminal are kept in the dark shows a shocking contempt for private investors.

I merely quote


3934 days ago

Centamin Excellent Results but....

Fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) has announced its results from its Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt for the quarter ended 31 March 2013. Total gold production for the quarter was a record 87,016 oz and sales totalled 86,054oz. The gold price received was $1,604/oz, giving revenues of $138.2 million. Cash operating costs were $556/oz and this resulted in a profit before tax of $71.89 million before a loss of $3.087M on the sale of financial assets.  There is no doubt that these results were superb. Yes you read that correctly – they were brilliant. But.

There are a few less than minor issues to flag up.


3940 days ago

Centamin Egypt: In De Nile without a paddle

Oh Dear. Oh Dear. Oh Dear. It looks as if the Islamofascists in Egypt are moving a step closer to seizing Centamin’s (CEY) flagship Sukari gold mine, but the company (and its shareholders) are in denial. A statement today reveals the grim tidings.


3964 days ago

Centamin – And now there are two reasons to sell at 39p: target price 25p

Reasons to be bearish part 2. The first reason to sell Centamin (CEY) was political – it operates in Egypt where there is zero long term visibility for businesses since the regime change. But there is now a fundamental reason to offload the stock pronto – the maths simply do not stack up. And I warn you that there are some big broker downgrades on the way.


3983 days ago

Centamin Calendar 2012 results good but broker downgrades anyway

Centamin (CEY) has this week announced its calendar 2012 results. There is no doubt that the numbers were impressive. I write that as a persistent bear of the stock. But credit where credit is due – Josef El Raghy and his team did well in difficult conditions. However…

Before looking forwards, I look back. Centamin produced 262,828 oz of gold – an increase on 2011 despite the operational difficulties experience in the autumn as a direct result of the changing political landscape in Egypt. That production generated revenue of $426.1 million and an EBITDA of $233.3 million, resulting in a profit after tax of $232.15 million. However, the company did have an exceptional charge of $33.1 million which reduced the headline profit to $199.038 million. However even that number surpassed the $193.99 million recorded in 2011. It was another record year for Centamin.


3991 days ago

Centamin – Will it still own its mine in six months? – Good news or bad?

FTSE 250 listed gold miner Centamin has issued another statement updating shareholders on its legal issues in the Islamofascist Republic of Egypt where is flagship asset, the world class Sukarai gold mine is located. I have never doubted the quality of this asset, merely pointed out since the regime change in Egypt last summer that the political risks are not discounted. That remains the case at 56p today.

The statement issued yesterday reads:


3996 days ago

Centamin output guidance published - sell

Egypt based FTSE 250 listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) yesterday gave guidance for 2013 output – that it does so 2 weeks ahead of the publication of 2012 results is a bit odd. Is it a case of getting the bad news out ahead of the next bad news...the results.

The company states that it expects to produce 320,000 ounces of gold this calendar year at a cash cost ( assuming no fuel subsidies) of $700. That would be a 22% increase on 2012 output which is not surprising given that a range of political difficulties scarred 2012 numbers. Of course Centamin assumes that these difficulties (or new ones) will not reoccur. Given the newsflow from the increasingly Islamofascist republic of Egypt, I am not so sure of that. The company reaffirms that it expects output to increase to 450,000-500,000 oz from 2015 onwards. Inshallah.


4028 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell says Buy Centamin

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a tip from TradingResearch Point on Centamin. For what it is worth I disagree with his conclusion!

Centamin Egypt (CEY) has been in the spotlight for six months because of the well publicised political difficulties in Egypt where it operates the Sukari gold mine. These problems have seen the shares fall sharply to 61p today which values the company at £669 million. Ignoring this backdrop of poitical strife and excitment – the underlying fact is that Sukari is a world class, cash generative and growing operation. That is not discounted in the share price and with a sense that stability is returning to Egypt the shares are a buy.


4061 days ago

Centamin Publishes Record Q4 Results but that still leaves it as a sell

Centamin (CEY), the London and Canada listed gold miner operating in Egypt, has announced record quarterly gold production of 85,543 ounces for the period closing December 31st 2012 – taking full year production to 262,958 ounces, a 30% increase on 2011 and above guidance of 250,000 ounces. The shares have responded by currently trading just over 5.5p higher at 49.75p, capitalising the company at just under £550 million. The company emphasises the numbers as “particularly pleasing given the challenges faced during the year” but the announcement also makes clear that challenges remain. The following details my current view…


4064 days ago

Centamin – Deafening Silence on whether it is selling gold or not

I flagged up on the third of January an explicit allegation that fully listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) was not in fact selling any gold. The allegation was originally not made by an attention seeking share commentator (i.e. me) but by a well regard research analyst in a published note distributed by a respected London broker, viz Fox Davies. If the allegation is true then the implications for short term cashflow/ working capital at Centamin are profound. The response from Centamin? Er…


4068 days ago

Centamin: Is it exporting gold or not?

On 20th December fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) announced that “following the recently-announced export of gold and resumption of fuel supply, operations have now resumed at Sukari.” The market read this as meaning that output and cashflow generation was now back on track. The shares have thus rallied to 39.3p. But this morning, top broker Fox Davies has published a research report stating “We also understand that gold exports have again been suspended.” Well have they? A RNS statement from Centamin is called for pretty urgently. This is a critical matter but the answer does not matter but the episode reminds us of why the shares are a sell.

The Fox Davies note is pretty damning and I reprint a critical section:


4084 days ago

Centamin – Good News but Not all Good: TW vs the Barmy Sukari army Round 3

Fully listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) has served up two pieces of good news in two days. The barmy Sukari army on the Bulletin Boards will be delighted and the share price has raced ahead to 44p. That is your cue to sell. Remember 44p it is important.


4085 days ago

Video Postcard Number 19

Recording in freezing and wet Warwickshire with a new camera I hope the sound and picture quality is alright. My old camera has gone astray somewhere between Real Man Pizza Company, drinks with Lucian and St Albans. I fear it will not be seen again.

On the Agenda

1. Nigel Farage joins the speaker line-up at UKInvestor Show on April 13th. A real buncjh of men and women who one would describe as a Master Investor plus Farage. It really is a cracking lineup and you can book your tickets here.

2. Another two tips out this week on the Nifty Fifty. You can gain immediate access ahead of two more tips next week here.

3. Centamin and the idea of quantifying political risk in any stock

4. Northern Petroleum, director buying and market over-reaction

5. Plans for a Christmas slowdown by me

You can watch the video below:

Approximate Running Time 9 minutes


4088 days ago

Centamin Bulletin Board Morons and Cowards – Part 2

I wrote a no holds barred piece on Centamin (LSE:CEY) yesterday which seems to have attracted a furious response from a range of Bulletin Board morons, cowards and professional Tom Winnifrith haters. Well folks you were wrong and I was right. Tough. All website traffic is much appreciated and so here goes again.


4089 days ago

Centamin Shares Collapse - Time for Bulletin Board Morons to apologise to me. Still a sell

I first tipped Egyptian gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) at 8p on t1ps.com. I advised readers to sell at 137p. I called it bloody brilliantly. In the summer at 67p to 75p I repeatedly urged folks to sell warning that the new Islamofascist rulers of Egypt had changed the game. I was greeted with heaps of abuse from Bulletin Board commentators (mainly here on ADVFN). Well arseholes the stock has almost halved ( again) today to a 27p share price so: a) you lose money and b) it is time for you to apologise. You can post your apologies on the comments section below just as you posted the abuse in the summer.


4105 days ago

Centamin – Market Update Does Not sound Good say two brokers and me

Fully listed Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) has today provided a market update on its various woes and at two levels it does not sound good at all. And it is not just me saying this, it seems that some brokers agree. To hoots of Bulletin Board derision I warned folks repeatedly ( when the shares were much higher than today’s 60.2p) that Centamin was a sell. That was not because I dislike the company or have a grudge. This was a stock that I tipped on t1ps.com at 8p but told readers to sell at 134p. It is because life in Egypt has changed irrevocably and for the worse since its revolution. Those who have fallen in love with the stock seem to forget that.


4109 days ago

Centamin: Broker Fox Davies Warns shares worth 44p if fuel subsidy discussions fail

I think that my views on fully listed Egyptian Gold miner Centamin (CEY) are well known. For me the great risk is a political one – I trust the Islamofascist Muslim Brotherhood rulers of Egypt less than I’d trust an 1970s Radio 1 DJ to do a spot of babysitting. But Fox Davies has another concern: the fuel subsidy.


4115 days ago

Centamin – Quarterlies Good Enough But...

I have never said that Egypt-focused, London and Canada listed, gold miner Centamin (CEY) was a bad company. After all I tipped the shares at 8p on t1ps.com and got my readers to sell at 134p – not a bad result. My problem is that it operates in Egypt. That is the country next to Gaza happily assisting Hamas as the heat gets turned up in the region.

Centamin announced results for the third quarter of 2012 on Wednesday. Despite reporting record quarterly earnings, the share price has continued to decline since.


4126 days ago

Centamin – Another day and a Better RNS – Still Far More attractive Bets in Gold

And now for the latest news from Centamin (CEY) vs the Islamofascist Peoples Court in Cairo – the fully listed gold miner has issued another statement (its third) on the ruling of last Tuesday which appeared to take away its key flagship asset, the Sukari gold mine. This is the most convincing statement yet from Centamin and the shares have rallied to 74p. That is another opportunity to sell and switch into a safer play. And here is why.


4131 days ago

Centamin Resumes Trading – Sell

Shares in fully listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) have resumed trading this morning and are currently 74p. One can make a legitimate case saying that its assets are worth 150p per share. But then there is the reason they were suspended on Tuesday and that is why I would sell as I explain briefly below.


4131 days ago

Centamin: Another Day - Another pathetic RNS. Just not convincing at all

And so it came to pass on the third day that Centamin (LSE:CEY) issued another RNS insisting that the new Islamofascist regime in Egypt had not after all stolen its Sukhari gold mine. The shares remain suspended because the truth is that no-one has the foggiest idea what is going on. Not even Centamin by the sound of it. If these shares return from suspension what, I wonder, are they worth?


4133 days ago

Centamin: The company issues pathetic response to asset theft – not convincing: sell if you can

Fully listed Centamin (CEY) has now formally responded to the fact that the Islamofascist regime in Egypt has stolen its main asset. Its response is not in any way convincing. It is quite clear that an Egyptian Court has revoked the license yet the company seems to suggest otherwise. On the basis that no-one seems to know what is going on the shares remain suspended. If, at any stage, you can sell I would. Here, in Centamin’s own words is why.


4133 days ago

Centamin: You were warned - game over?

I first tipped gold miner Centamin Egypt at 8p yonks ago on t1ps.com and banked mammoth gains at 134p a few years ago. Thereafter I was repeatedly urged to get back in. I resisted. My most recent refusal game with the shares at 66.5p on 29th July. This morning the shares have been suspended at 67.5p as what I predicted (action by Egypt’s new Islamofascist regime) has come to pass. It gives me no great pleasure to write this but “I told you so.” So what next?