Personal and undiluted views

756 days ago

The EU brought peace to Europe, Brexit threatens this – the nonsense spouted by Euro loons Jonathan Price, Dan Snow and others

The hereditary TV presenter Dan Snow, aka thehistoryguy, claimed yesterday that the EU had brought peace to Europe and Brexit threatened it. So nothing to do with NATO and the American defensive shield then? And what about the genocide at Srebrenica during the Bosnian war when EU peacekeeping troops stood idly by as 8,000 folks were massacred?  Snow was talking nonsense as many of us pointed out. But rallying to his defence was my good friend, the arch Euro loon Jonathan Price, who insisted that the EU had ended war in Europe since all the previous wars were started by either France or Germany. Like the hereditary TV presenter, I fear that even Bath Spa would fail that answer. 


2218 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Assisted by my father, 8 predictions for 2017

Once again I am sitting here in Shipston with a live audience of one, my father. So we have his take on George Michael - mine is HERE. My views on Syria are referred to in the podcast and the article I mention is HERE. Then I go onto my 8 macro calls for 2017 covering Europe and the Euro, interest rates, corporate earnings visibility, fraud & bankruptcies, house prices, shares, gold and oil.


2398 days ago

Video: EU leader says leaders of other planets who he has met are worried about Europe

Yeah...I bet you are gutted we are not staying in the EU now. EU boss Jean Claude Juncker explains below how he has met leaders of other planets who tell him that they are worried about Europe. I can see now why so many were so keen to pay £350 million a week to be ruled by men such as this.


2403 days ago

40,000 very silly young people #marchforeurope. Oh no they don't

As the earnest young people, mostly loathsome students, gather in London today they claim that they march for Europe. it sounds good to be an internationalist showing solidarity with a whole continent. MarchfortheEU does not sound quite so good. The EU is after all, as even its supporters in the remain campaign admitted, inefficient, corrupt and far from perfect. Moreover it is loathed across the continent.

Switzerland has just withdrawn its application to join. In France, Austria, Greece, Italy, Holland, Sweden and Denmark there are growing calls for their own referendum and signs that in many of those countries folks will vote to leave. For what these young people fail to see is that across Europe there is a widespread feeling that the EU serves an business, bankster, media and political establishment very well but for the ordinary Joe, for the 99% it sucks.

Here in Greece, youth unemployment is 60%. It would be far higher


2408 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Independence day Bearcast Part 2: Political panto, sterling & the stockmarket

Earlier, in Independence Day Bearcast part 1, I looked at how we the people had given the elites a well deserved kicking on the Brexit poll and what that says for Europe as a whole. Now I turn to the political panto but more importantly to waht happens to Sterling and the stockmarket and I mention a few stocks featuring today. Don't panic but be realistic is the message.


2408 days ago

Celebrate remaining in Europe says Michael O'Leary - feck off you odious leprechaun

It was 34 minutes past midnight when I received a marketing communication from Michael O'Leary's Ryanair (RYA) with an offer I'm not going to publicise but headlined "celebrate remaining in Europe". 


2823 days ago

Rejoice, Rejoice – The Tories Win

At 7 AM it is clear that the Tories are going to be able to govern alone for five more years. As someone who runs a small business, who would like the economy to prosper, to see jobs created and the deficit cut and who wants us all to have a say on Europe I rejoice. My only regret is that I was not with her wife and her lefty pals at their election night party as they tried to work out how to but the corks back in the champagne bottle.

I noted in a podcast a couple of days ago that there could be a Dewey moment,


3638 days ago

Black Swan New Year Letter 2013: China to recover, US to recover, Europe Doomed

This is the annual letter sent out by my friend Richard Poulden. This year – as every year – we wil hold a 10 minute debate at the UKInvestor Show – I am not sure of the subject matter yet but it is always sparky. I am not sure that I agree 100% on China but on Europe we are at one. No debate there. Over to Richard:

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation” – Alan Greenspan, 1966

“Keep a clear head and always carry a light bulb” – Bob Dylan, 1965

Yesterday morning in Dubai was foggy: thick, gooey, 12-metre visibility stuff. As I drove my daughter to school , I said: “Let’s see how many cars we can find driving without lights”.

“Come on”, she said, “no one could be THAT stupid”

“Oh yes they could”, I said, “I’m going for a starter of three”.

Well we found three cars in the space of a few blocks. As we hit Sheik Zayed Road where the traffic in the fast lane was still doing 120km, she said: “OK, this is crazy, let’s go for 8 or 12”.

“That’s fine”, I said, “but I want to go for the big one: I want to find the European Union…. I want to find a bus..or a large sewage tanker”……and we did.

The gurus at Deutsche Bank published a study1 in July of last year suggesting that the politicians guiding the world economy were behaving exactly like those sewage tankers and buses in the fog. They propose this because their hypothesis is that none of the old economic philosophies actually apply to the current world economy and thus the levers being pulled by the politicians are not actually connected to anything.