Personal and undiluted views
UK house prices

1354 days ago

Video of Main Stage Talk at UK Investor Show 2018: Nick Leslau with Tom Winnifrith

This was a wide ranging chat with the property guru covering everything from retailaggedon, to how to invest in commercial real estate to Purplebricks (PURP) to UK house prices and buy to let, Nick Leslau did not hold back.


2066 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Even Cheryl Cole knows ( from personal experience) that George Osborne is talking bollocks on Brexit & House Prices

George Osborne says UK house prices will fall by 18% if we vote for Brexit. At every single conceivable level he is talking bollocks. Even the lovely Cheryl Cole can testify to that as I explain in today's podcast.


2275 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 25 October - #Portugalcoup and a warning, well lots of them

In today's podcast I look at the Portugal Coup and what it means for the EU and the Euro. Then onto profits warnings and where I see equities going and finally a note on Mark Carney, UK base rates and UK house prices.


2322 days ago

Tom Winnifrith BearCast 8 September - Hotel Corp Scumbags, UK housing crash and more

A wide ranging podcast today from my rather cold garage in Bristol. Why oh why cant I be in Greece? In today's issue I sart with the disgraceful antics of the directors of AIM casino shocker The Hotel Corp (HCP) and Shore Capital. Pledge your support to Marcus Yeoman [email protected] now! Then I turn to Oxford Instruments (OXIG), SQS Software (SQS) which gets a major doing over, Fitbug (FITB), Tern (TERN) and M Winkworth (WINK) where my thoughts are more about UK house prices than about the company itself.


2357 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 4 August: Marie Antoinette, QE, base rates, Sefton, Armour and more

An odd day yesterday had me reflecting on how QE and low base rates had skewed life but how that is all about to change. A bearish podcast on equity prices and UK house prices. Then onto Sefton, Armour Group and Monitise.


2387 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 5 July: Greece, China, Quindell & house prices

Polls close here in Athens in just over three hours. I shall shortly head off to my local polling station to have a final butchers and then to Syntagma Square to sit underneath the Greek parliament as the results come in. I shall blog away here on ShareProphets as Greece decides whether it is Oxi or nai. Pro tem this podcast covers Greece, China, Quindell and UK House prices.

This podcast is recorded in the most excellent Anthropology cafe in Athens which I heartily recommend - although it really needs to start stocking ouzo

And fear not Champagne Charlie Gibson fans, I had not forgotten about you. Just a reminder of why the Edison analyst is a convicted felon HERE and as a bonus a reminder of how it is not only the poor he screws HERE - and a reminder of why I feel the urge to remind you all HERE


2642 days ago

Tom Winnifrith's BearCast 23rd October

A wide ranging podcast today covers themes general and specific: Northern Petroleum, Foxtons, UK house prices, Ultrasis, Quindell, Diamondcorp, political risk and South Africa, It will be different this time (it won't be), dead cat bounces and more


3151 days ago

Hookies’ Wife should live in Stoke, the £1 million mansion, immigration and welfare

Islamofascist terrorist Abu Hamza is currently rotting in a US jail and will hopefully not be returning to these shores any time soon. But the wife of Hookie and his seven kids still live in Britain. There is outrage in some quarters that Mrs Terrorist lives in a £1 million house for which she pays nothing – the grateful taxpayer picks up the tab. There is apparently nothing that can be done about it.

Predictably some bigots regard this as an immigration issue – they just want her booted out, preferably with her kids. While I very much doubt that the old bag has contributed anything at all to Society that is not the answer. You cannot just say we will boot this immigrant out because they are a scumbag parasite married to an Islamofascist terrorist (i.e. she has broken no laws but we do not like her) but we will keep that hard working Mr Patel from the corner store in.  You cannot make arbitrary rules on a case by case basis.

There are vast numbers of immigrants in the UK who work damn hard doing jobs feckless Britain’s would rather not do (claiming welfare instead), and in many cases as entrepreneurs making Britain richer. I would welcome more immigration and have an open door policy.

The general issue here is welfare. I work damn hard and pay tax. I resent bitterly that much of that tax goes to folks who have never worked and will never work. I resent white chavs on the Jeremy Kyle show as much as I resent Mrs Hookie. There has to be a change


3219 days ago

Does the budget mean that house-building stocks are still a sell?

Three weeks ago I wrote that shares in three of the UK’s biggest house builders were hugely overvalued on the basis that house prices were quite simply too high and that any correction in the value of UK house prices – which I regarded as inevitable – was not discounted. This week Chancellor Osborne announced a series of measures to boost the UK housing sector in his budget. Shares in house builders have reacted positively to that news. Are they reflecting a new reality? Should I change my tune?


3228 days ago

Why UK house prices must crash

This went out on a few weeks ago but perhaps meriots a wider audience I stand by my view expressed here:

It is part of the British DNA that we believe that house prices must always go up.  That is not the case. Be warned. Falls of 30% or more are inevitable within the next few years.

Of course inflation (the erosion of the purchasing power of the pound) has made house prices a one way bet since the early 1970s. I will not bother serving up a chart just imagine climbing a ski slope. But this is an inflation given gain. It simply reflects, to misquote Harold Wilson that the pound in your pocket is worth far less than it was.  You might note that in 1971 you could buy an ounce of gold for £14. Today that will cost you more than £1000.  The destruction in the purchasing power of Sterling during the past 42 years has meant that all physical assets look, in headline terms, like smart bets, housing included. You cannot live in a bar of gold but it has actually been a better bet than UK house prices. So as it happens has been am 1870 Wisden cricket annual, but again you cannot live in it.

House prices have not, as anyone who bought in 1987 will remember, moved in a straight line. There are periods when they fall sharply.  That happens because a) they get overheated and b) because there is one of two external shocks: either a sharp rise in unemployment or a sharp rise in interest rates and either of those two triggers mean that large numbers of people with mortgages cannot pay, default and become forced sellers.


3234 days ago

Weekly Video Postcard Number 30

I think the sound and light both worked fine. The end of a long week and a lot to say in this 15 minute video.
On the agenda
1.       Sefton Resources (brief, fear not)
2.       Nigel Wray
3.       Domino’s Pizza
4.       Stock valuations – notably the FTSE 250
5.       The inevitability of a house price crash
6.       The next tip on the Nifty Fifty (see here)


3246 days ago

Redrow - good results but shares are too high: sell

Today it was the turn of FTSE 250 listed Redrow (RDW) to report its numbers for the 6 months to 31st December 2012 and while some of the numbers look good, some do not and there is a solid case to be made for selling this stock notwithstanding the sharp increase in earnings just reported.

My starting premise is perhaps a little different to most sector followers in that I am bearish on UK house prices.


3250 days ago

Barratt Developments – a monumental bet on house prices defying historic norms – sell

FTSE 250 listed, Housebuilder Barratt Developments (BDEV) issued an upbeat trading statement on 16th January covering the six months to 31st December and there is little doubt that the results out next week will contain no nasty surprises. The company has a forward order book equivalent to around four months of sales and as such there is no reason to expect any great change in trading in the second half. Yet with house prices now on a multiple of average wages seem only once before in living memory ( 2007) and with the normal catalyst for a house price correction ( a rise in interest rates) surely only a matter of time the current rating looks untenable.


3366 days ago

Town Centre Securities – A good share tip but how good?

I recommended shares in Town Centre Securities (LSE:TCSC) – a Leeds-based northern property investor and developer – in April 2010 at 148.75p on the site I founded 12 years ago and ran until this September. The company has since paid out 20.88p in dividends and the shares currently trade at 184p – so this has been a pretty decent share tip for those who followed my advice. Results for the company’s year ended 30th June 2012 were released last month and in light of that I wonder if it really is still a red hot penny share or if it is time to take profits.