As The Donald's fellow Republicans do their best to ensure Crooked Hillary wins on November 8th it is looking an increasingly tough fight for Trump despite his storming victory in debate two. The result will be a lot closer than the current polls indicate but still the crooked one is clearly favourite. But whoever wins I predict they will be calling for a removal van after four years in the White House. Here's why.
Health may play a part. Hillary's is clearly very uncertain and Donald is an overweight 70 year old. After four years of a job which is very stressful even if, like the current POTUS, you spend most of your time on the golf course, would you bet the ranch on either of these two seeking a second term? This time both candidates have been lucky to be running against candidates who are so universally unliked. That will not be on offer in four years time. There will be no rematch.
But the real killer is its the economy, stupid.
House prices and rental levels are falling. That may help poor voters and young people who don't vote but it hits the old and the middle class who do vote in large numbers. The stockmarket looks like a bubble waiting to burst and outside the asset bubbles, the real economy is just not growing. 70% of Americans have savings of less t'han $1,000. 34% have no savings at all and a chill wind of economic slowdown and job losses is coming whoever wins on November 8th.
In four years time the then incumbent will have a poor economic record to boast about. It was not their mess but that is neither here nor there. And I suspect that whoever wins in 2016 really will not want to be around in 2020 to face that backlash.