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The post debate poll bounce for Hillary Clinton - it is not enough: Trump will still win

Tom Winnifrith
Saturday 1 October 2016

There have been three nationwide polls since the debate on a nationwide basis. Reuters decided to poll a lot more registered Democrats than Republicans so again skewing its results in order to create a bogus lead for Crooked Hillary. You can discount any of its polls, its fudges have discredit it completely. The other two (Fox & Rasmussen) show Hillary with leads of 3% and 1% and swings to her of 2% and 6% respectively. Great news for the crooked one? I am not so sure.

It is clear that crooked Hillary did win the debate although having slated Trump as a bad loser for complaining his mike was broken she will no doubt be appologising this morning as the Debate Commission admitted that it was indeed defective. Those Americans who see Hillary as being the candidate of a big business/big media/political establishment conspiracy will say "told ya".

Given Hillary's win in the debate I predicted a poll bounce of 2-4% and it looks like it was around 4%. But her lead is tiny and the debate is now in the rear view mirror. Memories will fade. Coming up ahead we have so much more scandal on the emails and cover up which will hurt her. More importantly there are seismic shifts in the economy and the stockmarket and they are nearly all bad. That hits the party of incumbency, ie the Dems and Hillary.

Hillary had a double digit lead after her convention. That evaporated in six weeks. Can she protect a lead of 1-3% for another six weeks? It is far from a given.

I now flag up the issue of the "shy GOP" voter. We see it in British elections where a small number of Tories refuse to admit to tell pollsters that they are voiting for the party of the right. In the EU poll there were far more shy Brexit supporters than Remainers. The entire liberal media tells us that Tories/Brexiters hate the NHS,poor people and immigrants and are generally thick racists. We know that is untrue but is it surprising that a few of us on the right decline to admit to anyone who we support, even to a pollster.

And it will be the same in the US. When you have folks like Alvin Hall going on mainstream media saying that the folks who vote Trump are either stupid or racist or both that will harden support for Trump as folks find another liberal elitist to despise but it may also give another reason to remain a "shy Republican" when asked your views by a pollster.

In many places thse days it is far easier to come out as a homosexual than as a Trump supporter. Naturally I applaud anyone brave enough to do either but those on the liberal left simply do not and are oppressive in how they smear and abuse we who are out and proud Trump supporters.

My guess is that the shy Republican phenomena will give Trump a boost of at least a percentage point by November 8 in the only poll that actually maters. And that is why I'd view the polls as we stand as being essentially tied. The first debate is in the rear view mirror but what lies ahead should be nearly all bad news for Crooked Hillary.

I stand by my 8 reasons Trump will win article here. Bring on the next batch of suppressed Clinton emails....

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About Tom Winnifrith
Tom Winnifrith is the editor of When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
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