526 days ago
I start with a few other comments on Greek Hovel matters. Then I move on to talk about three companies which I shall be or are discussing with the FCA: Zenith (ZEN), Eqtec (DOG), and Verditek (VDTK). Then onto NatWest Group (NWG) where I apologise for my bad language. Finally my thoughts on the gold price and comments on gold stocks I own: Centamin (CEY), Ariana (AAU), Kefi (KEFI), Bluebird Merchant (BMV), and Xtract (XTR).
1167 days ago
I don't normally take broker research seriously but a) Galantas (GAL) operates in Ulster so I am biased in its favour and b) analyst Roger Bade at Whitman Howard is no fool. He reckons Galantas at 6p is worth 17.3p per share. The market cap today is £12 million but Bade explains why by 2020 the company could be generating £8 million of cashflow and by 2023 that could be £13 million and that is on uber-cautious gold price assumptions. The note (below) is very much worth a read.
1599 days ago
Fund manager Matt Geiger thinks we were in a consolidation period of this precious metals bull market for the past year. He doesn’t see much downside from here. It’s been a relatively healthy period for investors to get into the market. In terms of the gold price we are more likely to reach $1400 than to see $1200 again, he argues.
2169 days ago
Warning: This podcast contains a lot of bad language and images of a sexual nature. As far as I understand it, Sweden is known for the fact that 95% of its population enjoy thrashing the naked buttocks of other folk's partners at the weekend. But it is not this that concerns me but its insane Central bank which has cut interest rates again ... to minus 0.5%. I reflect on this madness and the insanity of Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve and then on the gold price. I look at a few gold stocks racing ahead wrongly ( Condor (CNR), Goldplat (GDP) and Patagonia Gold (PGD)) and at others I might buy. I comment on the insane dead cat bounce at Motive TV (MTV) and on the odd behaviour of crony capitalist PR man Reg Hoare of TrakM8 (TRAK) and explain why its shares are still a sell. Then it is onto the deadlines for Solo Oil (SOLO) and LGO Energy (LGO) going under as Neil Ritson tries his hand at Leni-Maths. And I also have a trivial pursuit question for you all.
2214 days ago
You have, by now, read my macro calls for 2016 which you may or may not have dismissed as complete mumbo jumbo but I hope they make sense. You will see that I expect the gold price to pick up during the next 12 months. Not to rocket but to improve and that makes Petropavlovsk (POG) at a 6.7p offer a very obvious first tip of the year.
2559 days ago
Over the past 15 years Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley has been the forecaster with the best record in the LBMA for predicting gold price moves so you should take his gold price forecasts seriously. Ross writes, "We are going out on a limb this year." Indeed.
2568 days ago
Amara Mining* (AMA) has announced an increase in total mineral resources at its Yaoure gold project in Côte d'Ivoire from 6.3 million ounces to 6.8 million and a 63% increase (to 4.4 million ounces) in the higher confidence ‘Indicated’ resource.
These numbers are based on a pit optimisation using a $1,500 gold price, and reported at a 0.5g/t cut-off, though it is again emphasised that the “resource remains robust in lower gold price pit shells”
3253 days ago
I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with minesite.com and oilbarrel.com and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a piece on the gold price – ‘natch I agree with the great metals guru. Sam writes…
Those who have called the top in gold at $800, $1,200 and $1,500 are again predicting the start of another gold market following the recent sell off down to $1565 oz. They are joined by newer names such as Goldman Sachs which has cut its long term price target to $1,200 oz and Citigroup which says that the bull market is officially over. The chartists have also joined in with talk of a “death cross”. They are in my view wrong, the long term uptrend will continue and gold bugs need to simply hold their nerves.
As a rare digression into technical analysis, I just point that there is no Death’s Cross – when the 50 day MA falls below the 200 day MA. That can happen only if the 200 day MA is declining, it happens to be rising.
3253 days ago
And so we are told the great bull run in gold may be at an end. As I write, the one true currency is trading at $1570 oz. I am told by chartists, not that I listen to a word they say, that as long as a $1550 gold price holds then the story is intact. The problem with chartists is that they are such short termists. They regard a three day trade as a long term investment. Okay, before Zak Mir wades over to Real Man Pizzain Clerkenwell to drink me under the table again as punishment, that may be harsh. But the way to look at gold is on a forty one and a half year view and I am not sure that many technical analysts have bothered to go back that far..?
3336 days ago
I hope the sound and light work here. It was filmed in my father’s conservatory in Warwickshire – not exactly an ideal studio but then is not the BBC. That has to be a point in my favour. The video is about eleven and a half minutes long.
On the Agenda
1.Oil stocks – the reasons for selective bearishness
- funding issues, how the recent stream of drill failures have had a disproportionate impact on the ability to raise capital in this sector
3341 days ago
On 21st November AM and TSX listed gold miner Minera IRL (MIRL) announced a material upgrade to its resource estimate for the Don Nicolas project in Argentina. The Measured and Indicated Resources have been increased by 23% to 468,000 ounces of gold. The economic effect of this is to increase the life of the mine estimate, something assisted by a 14% increased in the inferred resource estimate, to 165,000 ounces of gold. This has prompted broker Fox Davies to set a target price for the shares (56p today) of 116p.I do not entirely disagree with its analysis and here is why.
3347 days ago
I tipped Cluff Gold (CLF) in September 2011 at 96p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and left three months ago to set up the Nifty Fifty
. Like most AIM listed gold shares Cluff has taken a beating but the shares have rallied in recent days and are now at 63.25p following the release of a new resource estimate for the Baomahun project. Those who nibbled at 58.5p the other day after I published a detailed analysis here will be feeling reasonably happy.
3353 days ago
I tipped Cluff Gold (CLF) in September 2011 at 96p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in 2000 and left three months ago. Like most AIM listed gold shares Cluff has taken a beating and the stock closed at 58.5p today after the release of third quarter numbers. To reflect a change of leadership the company has now changed its name to Amara Mining (AMA). That seems like a bit of wasteful corporate PR willy-waving to me but, ignoring that, it seems to me that the fundamentals look increasingly attractive for Cluff, sorry Amara, and that this is not reflected in the stock price. Here is why.
3353 days ago
I recommended shares in AIM and Ireland listed Ovoca Gold (OVG) in my t1ps.com days (in this case in October 2010) at 30.75p. They rose to above 38p in December of that year but have consistently fallen back since – hitting 10p in June of this year. Currently trading at 12p, I apologise for a recommendation which has clearly not worked out to this point. Perhaps it is time to cut losses? Or is this a red hot penny share in the waiting?
3353 days ago
I initially recommended shares in AIM-listed Kryso Resources (KYS) at 13.25p in December 2007 on t1ps.com the site I founded 12 years ago and edited until this September. Today shares in the company – which is currently developing its Pakrut gold project in Tajikistan towards production – trade at 31p so we are 134% ahead. Not bad. With exploration work continuing at Pakrut and other nearby targets, is it time to bank a gain?
3354 days ago
I recommended AIM listed Turkey based gold mine developer Ariana Resources (AAU) on t1ps.com in August 2011 at 4.5p. The shares are now 1.425p and so clearly I have not exactly covered myself in glory. The company announced a detailed exploration update yesterday which was good but does not answer the question of whether this is a storming recovery play or just a dog to shoot. Here is why.
The exploration took place on Ariana’s Kepez West and Karakavak prospects, located along the Sindirgi Gold Corridor which also contains the Kiziltepe Sector of the Red Rabbit Gold Project.
3354 days ago
I recommended shares in AIM and Canada listed Orosur Mining (OMI) – which operates the only producing gold mine in Uruguay (San Gregorio) and has additional exploration acreage in Uruguay and Chile – in May 2010 at 24.25p on t1ps.com, the website I left in September 12 years after I founded it . The shares currently trade at 40.5p, though the current levels compare to highs of 91.5p hit in early 2011. Last month the company announced results for its first fiscal 2013 quarter (to 31st August 2012) and, noting that recently “the patience and confidence of shareholders with the company has been tried”, a statement on its forward strategy. In the following I review these announcements and the Orosur investment case from here.
3358 days ago
Vatukoula Gold Mines (LSE:VGM) has today announced that it has completed its botched replacement placing to raise £6.6 million gross from Chinese investor Zhongrun International Mining Co. Ltd at 33p a pop. The shares are now 32.5p. I can understand why folks are giving up on this one. Numerous placings – including this rather botched one ( Zhongrun came into replace another Chinese outfit which did not stump up its promised shekels in a 51p placing) – and numerous project delays. But I would not give up. This was a bad share tip from my t1ps.com days (I am 35% down) but I’d buy more and here is why.
3359 days ago
I first recommended shares in AIM listed Latin America gold miner Minera IRL (MIRL) at 69p in May 2010 on t1ps.com, the site I founded in 2000 and left this September. Despite having the safety net of current production, the shares have unfortunately not escaped the negative sentiment towards the sector in recent times – and traded at 41p as recently as early September this year. They have recovered somewhat to currently trade at 50.25p but is there more to come? Earlier this week the company released results for its third quarter ended 30th September and here I take a look at those and assess the current investment case…
3360 days ago
Well I told you so. My heart in the end went, marginally, for Romney and as I see deluded lefties across the media world delighting in another four years of hopey change I feel Romney’s pain. But my head told me Obama would win and so I have called it as an Obama victory from the moment it became clear he was going to face Mitt. I never flinched in that – whilst other conservative writers claimed Mitt had momentum and would inch it, this pundit got it 100% right. I shall cover the political and coverage aspects later but starting with the economy. Obama’s victory is not very good news for the USA.
3362 days ago
Good news today from AIM Listed gold miner Shanta Gold (SHG) – it confirms that it is on track to hit production targets both for the fourth quarter of calendar 2012 but, far more importantly, for calendar 2013 and that will make it a hugely undervalued cash cow. At 18.875p the shares could, in my view, easily double over the next year – even without a surge in the gold price, which I still expect, and here is why.
3363 days ago
I recommended AIM listed Turkey based gold mine developer Ariana Resources (LSE:AAU) on t1ps.com in August 2011 at 4.5p. The shares are now 1.6p and so clearly I have not exactly covered myself in glory. I met up for lunch with CEO Kerim Sener last week for a catch up. Is this a busted flush or could it be a great recovery play for 2013. It is an interesting case study. There are three problems but three assets, let me explain
3366 days ago
AIM listed Aureus Mining (AUE) is a gold development and exploration company, currently mainly focused on progressing its New Liberty project – which it is targeting to become the first commercial gold mine in Liberia. I apologise for having timed my recommendation poorly here – recommending the shares at 84.5p in August 2011 on t1ps.com, during my 12 year stint there. Now trading at 57.25p, I review the investment case based on the informed view of where the best place to currently be in the gold sector is…
3366 days ago
Another day and another placing from AIM listed gold miner Vatukoula (VGM). The shares are down to 35p and given the convoluted circumstances of this placing I can understand why some are tempted to sell and move on. Having recommended the shares at 46.5p on t1ps.com, the site I founded 12 years ago and edited until September I am not best pleased. However I would not be selling, I’d be buying and here is why.
3366 days ago
Shares in fully listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) have resumed trading this morning and are currently 74p. One can make a legitimate case saying that its assets are worth 150p per share. But then there is the reason they were suspended on Tuesday and that is why I would sell as I explain briefly below.
3367 days ago
And so it came to pass on the third day that Centamin (LSE:CEY) issued another RNS insisting that the new Islamofascist regime in Egypt had not after all stolen its Sukhari gold mine. The shares remain suspended because the truth is that no-one has the foggiest idea what is going on. Not even Centamin by the sound of it. If these shares return from suspension what, I wonder, are they worth?
3367 days ago
Shares in AIM and ASX listed Norseman Gold (NGL) remain suspended following it s decision to put its operating unit into administration – something it stated was (hopefully) temporary. Many folk have understandably written the shares off as worthless but they are, quite probably, wrong. Press reports from Australia suggest there is real hope and that the shares could be trading again by Christmas. Let me explain.
3368 days ago
I first recommended AIM listed gold producer, Archipelago Resources (LSE:AR.) back in December 2004 at 27.5p on t1ps.com, the website I founded in my bedroom 12 years ago and edited until September this year. At 62p today it has not been a bad share tip. However third quarter ( to September 30th) numbers out today show that the company is very much on track for its planned ramp up in production at its flagship 95% owned Toka Tindung mine in Indonesia and I reckon that the shares are worth at least 95p. Here is why.
3368 days ago
I first tipped gold miner Centamin Egypt at 8p yonks ago on t1ps.com and banked mammoth gains at 134p a few years ago. Thereafter I was repeatedly urged to get back in. I resisted. My most recent refusal game with the shares at 66.5p on 29th July. This morning the shares have been suspended at 67.5p as what I predicted (action by Egypt’s new Islamofascist regime) has come to pass. It gives me no great pleasure to write this but “I told you so.” So what next?
3369 days ago
AIM listed gold producer Hambledon Mining (HMB) has not covered me in glory. Recommended at 3.25p in November 2008 on the site I founded and edited for 12 years until this September (t1ps.com) the shares now trade at 1.275p. Most mining juniors have not prospered (they raced ahead and then fell) but Hambledon has fared worst than most. This was a bad tip. I apologise. But what to do now? Call it a day and shoot the dog or is this a red hot penny share recovery play? I spoke to the company at length today
3374 days ago
Dominic Frisby asks in a piece on Moneyweek (you can read it here ) if gold could hit £10,000 ounce in the long run? A lot of worthy analysis goes to explain why it could. But this is not an IF, gold MUST hit £10,000 oz at some stage. That is not because gold is fantastic but just because our politicians (like those across the West) always destroy the value of paper currencies. You think I am mad? Well, okay I might be. But on this one the evidence is staring you in the face.
In 1971 the world abandoned the Gold Standard. Politicians thereafter had free rein to try and buy votes by running vast budget deficits and by printing cash. That inevitably debases a currency. And so in 1971 you could buy an ounce of gold for £14 or $35. Today that same ounce will cost you £1,067 or $1,708. In other words the real value of the pound in your pocket has, over the 41 years since the abolition of the gold standard fallen by 98.7%. The US dollar is down by a mere 97.7%.
3374 days ago
So the FSA and the Mortgage lenders are going to make it bloody hard to get an interest only mortgage. This is to be done in the name of prudence since it is quite clear that large numbers of folks take out an interest only mortgage with no idea of how they will repay the capital in the end. As of now you are going to have to show how you can repay the capital and, if you are over 50, do so within 25 years. What does this all mean?
Clearly it will not assist the UK housing market.
3375 days ago
Yesterday I listed 5 gold stocks that you really should buy if, like myself and Malcolm Burne, you were bullish on the gold price. I warned that there were dozens to sell as they would be toast within a year. This sector is a binary play. I am asked why was Goldplat (GDP), a stock I first flagged in the 12 years when I ran t1ps.com, not listed on the buy list? Is it a sell? Let me explain.
3376 days ago
Golden Prospect Precious Metals (GPPM) is an investment company which invests in gold and silver stocks. Its chairman is the industry guru Malcolm Burne and his statement with today’s interims is a must read for anyone interested in gold and gold stocks. The financials themselves are interesting but it is the statement from chairman Burne that is of most note. It gives you a clear steer on which gold stocks to buy and which to sell as the sector splits in two over the coming year. Let me explain
3380 days ago
And so the screwing of Private Investors in AIM listed gold miner Shanta Gold (LSE:SHG) is completed. The company has today announced that it has raised $35 million (£21.8 million) in its bookbuild placing announced yesterday at 17p. The new investors will own 38% of the equity. We plebs have been rogered, we feel sore but an objective look at the investment case still leaves the shares as a buy. Here is why.
3381 days ago
AIM listed gold producer Shanta Gold (SHG) has announced that it will today raise a minimum $30 million (£18.6 million) via an institutional placing. An accelerated book build will take place today so we do not know the price but I reckon that it will be in the range of17-18p. Yes private investors are being screwed and the share price movement in the days leading up to today stinks like a mackerel’s rectum but the shares, at 17.125p valuing Shanta at £54 million) are still very attractive for the long term investor. Here is why
3382 days ago
It has been a long but enjoyable week. This week’s video looks back on some of the highlights, notably the Evil Empire winning the Nobel Peace Prize and my battle with AIM listed penny dreadful Sefton Resources (SER) on Tuesday. But I look forward too.
3383 days ago
I first recommended AIM listed gold producer, Archipelago Resources (AR.) back in December 2004 at 27.5p on a website that I do not mention and few read anymore. After publishing some pretty impressive drill results today which indicate real upside possibilities at its 95% owned flagship Toka Tindung mine in Indonesia the shares are 63p. But I reckon that they are worth at least 95p (probably more) and here is why.
3392 days ago
AIM Listed gold producer Shanta (SHG) is in production and should be generating cash from its New Luika mine in Tanzania At June 30th it had $21 million in the kitty yet on October 5th it announced that it had secured a new $4 million loan facility from a director and was “in discussions with additional providers of working capital financing facilities to meet its short term working capital requirements during the ramp up phase of the New Luika Gold Mine.” What on earth is going on?
3394 days ago
Tonight was the first Presidential debate in the US. “Hopey change” Obama versus “Don’t ask my horse about its tax rebate” Romney. It seems clear that Romney won. Will that change the result on 6th November? I doubt it. I am still calling it for Obama by a clear margin. Most of the debate was so dull that only political anoraks will have stayed awake until the end.
But the closing line from Mitt really defines what an appalling choice America faces.
3395 days ago
Pimco boss Bill Gross is one for hyperbole. The bond guru said that equities were dead as an investment class just a few weeks ago. They have zoomed ahead since. But in his latest monthly newsletter he is bang on the money. Or rather the lack of it, among Western Governments.
Starting close to home. Amazingly the UK still has an AAA credit rating. Not for long. Gross compares the UK to a drug addict who is hooked on debt and struggling to kick the habit. He notes that:
“The problem becomes if [austerity] is too quick and leads to an economic contraction, which it appears close to in the UK – An economy that doesn’t grow, ultimately can’t resolve its debt crisis.”
Well up to a point. Actually it is worse than that.
3395 days ago
AIM and ASX listed gold Miner Norseman Gold ( NGL) has been a truly disastrous tip from me (37p in July 2009). The shares are now suspended and will remain suspended for a good while as it has just put its operating unit into administration. It sounds as if it is end game but it is not. I cannot say it is good news ( it is bad news) but do not give up the ghost yet. This is why.
3397 days ago
I tipped AIM listed gold producer Goldplat (LSE:GDP) at 11.5p in October 2011 and after the publication today of results for the year to 30th June I am now 56% ahead with the shares at 16.75p. Not bad. But there is far more to come. I have just come off the phone with the company’s Nominated Adviser and that has helped clarify my thoughts and I reckon that the shares should, within a year, be trading at 30p plus. And here is why…
3399 days ago
Hooray. Not headless and filmed in good light. I am getting the hang of this video malarkey. Filmed at Real man Pizza Company with the waiters looking on wondering what I am babbling on about, this is fun.
3401 days ago
I tipped AIM listed gold mine developer Chaarat Gold (LSE:CGH) at 45p in May 2010. Standing at 24.375p after the publication today on half calendar year results I do not look too clever. Yet. But I had a long chat with the company today, notably with its Finance director Linda Naylor and these shares are very cheap indeed. Quite seriously they could well be worth £1 a share or more. And this is why.
3402 days ago
AIM listed Vatukoula Gold Mines (VGM) is not a tip that has covered me in glory. Yet. I tipped it at 46.5p in November 2008 and although it zoomed ahead thereafter, the shares now trade at 41p valuing it at £40 million. All gold juniors have taken a hammering in the past 18 months but Vatukoula has also failed to hit production targets and so has taken a stock specific hammering as well. But it has cash, is profitable and the current valuation is just crazy. This is a stock that could well double within a year and still be cheap. And this is why.
3402 days ago
Dominic Frisby is a good guy. He is a comedian. The man behind the debt bomb video and he is a writer. A gold bug, his views on matters such as QE3, welfare spending, etc are spot on. And he is publishing a book. But his deal with his author is that he needs a certain number of pre-orders to go ahead. As Dominic is a) funny, b) a good bloke, c) correct in his analysis and d) a good writer I ask you click the link below, watch his video and consider pre-ordering.
To watch Dominic’s video about his new book click here.
3404 days ago
Like all gold juniors Ortac Resources (OTC) has had a fairly miserable year in share price terms. But that does not reflect what has happened on the ground. I tipped this stock at 0.775p in September 2010 and at 0.605p today the company is valued at just £14 million. For reasons I shall explain below that presents an attractive entry point on a risk reward basis.
3411 days ago
I first tipped AIM listed gold explorer and producer Shanta Gold (SHG) at 21.5p in July 2011 on the site I ran for 12 years until this September – t1ps.com. In my most recent performance stats (august 31st) it is in there at 20.5p but the shares are today trading at 29.25p and are still, very cheap. The Tanzanian based company is valued at £93 million, has cash and is now producing gold and material cashflows from its lead asset at Luika. I reckon that the stock is hugely undervalued. It really is a Red Hot Penny Share!
So what does Shanta own and what is it really worth?
3411 days ago
Like me Ben Bernanke is always blowing bubbles. It is just that he does not realise that they eventually fade and die. Recorded before today’s rather dull nil nil draw at Norwich (only highlight: Nolan not booked) the weekly video is back.
Recorded in the back garden of my father & step mother’s house, forgive the relaxed attire. Step mother Helen is very kindly doing a wash.
3436 days ago
The Gold price has raced ahead by $32.30 to $1672.80 an ounce today thanks to the release of the last minutes of the meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee (FOMC) that showed QE3 is just inevitable. Like we did not know that already. But this is just the start. Phrases involving genies and bottles spring to mind. Q4 2012 and 2013 will not be a time to be short of gold. $2000 an ounce or more lies ahead.
The statement from the Fed is pretty explicit
3443 days ago
I could not have put it better than this note from the trading desk at a leading London broker, which I have just been sent. I am sorry that I cannot include the chart referred to but you can guess what it looks like. The report states:
Gold has had a quiet year thus far. Despite the prospect of more money printing by the world’s central banks, and minuscule interest rates, it seems that not many people see inflation as a big threat at the moment.
But things can change quickly in the financial world.
3457 days ago
Back in Stratford, Australia has just picked up another gold medal in the “Missing quarterly targets men’s relay event” Barry Cahill held the baton for the first 12 quarters before passing it on to Kevin Maloney who stepped in with a blinding finish to ensure that for 13 quarters in a row the AIM and ASX listed Norseman Gold (NGL) squad has missed its production targets. The question is whether Maloney will do a lap of honour and miss again?
3470 days ago
AIM and ASX listed Norseman Gold (NGL) is rubbing salt in the wounds of the private investors it so likes to screw and who had bought the shares before Wednesday’s placing announcement likely feel by increasing the proposed placing by 25% (to Australian$25 million) “due to strong demand” from “institutional investors”.
For once I do not condemn Norseman’s management. This time it is greedy City brokers who should be strung up from lamp-posts with piano wire. This sort of thing is a stockmarket scandal.
This placing was done via a book build. That is to say the brokers (who trouser 5% of funds raised) call up fund managers and say how much stock to do want at what price. So we thought it was A$12 million (plus $8 million loan conversion) at 2.7p. But it appears there was more demand so they issue more stock at the knockdown price. They could have simply upped the price and raised the original amount (rather than an extra A$5 million) at a higher price. But no.
Greedy brokers will have told the company: