Personal and undiluted views

7 days ago

Video: Price Inflation is Only Just Beginning

Veteran analyst Alasdair McLeod claims that  the investment management industry is completely ignoring the expansion in money and the resulting inflation. Price increases are the consequence of this expansion of the money supply.  He notes that we’ve experienced an expansion by 400% in M1; we are in hyperinflationary territory. Further spending on infrastructure using more printed money won’t make this any better.


14 days ago

Video: Supply Shortages are Masking Real Inflation

Writer Lyn Alden is bang on the, increasingly worthless fiat, money when it comes to the thief in the night. She’s my sort of bird.


15 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: vodka infused plum crumble to celebrate another big vindication, another FRAUD imploding

I discuss what I should write in my weekend Tomograph: losing faith in the CofE or why is sleaze everywhere? That leads neatly onto inflation and that shock US data yesterday. Then I look at the fraud [email protected] Capital (SYME) where my vindication is complete, and which I can celebrate with vodka infusd plum crumble,  Volex (VLX), Manolete (MANO) and Feedback (FDBK)


32 days ago

A detailed note on why H&T is a BUY

The latest results from pawnbroker H&T Group (HAT) noted Covid-19 related trading restrictions and reduced high street footfall impact but they still showed profitable resilience and noted growing confidence. We can understand why, given the strains raging inflation will put on household budgets, and predict a return to the 380p+ share price levels of early 2020. At a current 283p offer price  (279p when we tipped it two weeks ago) and up to 290p, this is a recovery BUY.


33 days ago

Video: Gold and Inflation

Analyst Jeffrey Christian admits that folks do not agree about what will happen next.  He discusses his recent presentation at the Silver Symposium and how his opinions differ. He notes that all currencies are fiat and that gold’s value is determined by fiat. Much in the same way that currencies are valued by national central banks.


40 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - the 1 stock I have bought for my SIPP and four I almost bought

I start with a couple of talks from the Welsh Hovel and what they say about inflation and that almost drove me into buying two stocks for my SIPP. I considered another two but then went for a fifth, an oil and gas play. I explain my thinking behind all.  Then I discuss Peter Brailey’s piece on ITM Power (ITM)


61 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: I forgot to mention Bidstack last week & why Bath Spa holds the key to the petrol crisis

I start with how I am terrorising folks in this hotel as I sneeze in the lift and droplets fall from my ever redder nose. I know I don’t have covid, they don’t. Then I move onto Malcolm Stacey and inflation. Then onto Bidstack (BIDS), a train crash in the making. Then I discuss the lorry driver and cabbage picker crisis with a joke at Jim’s expense and also what is the obvious solution.


67 days ago

Photo Article from the Welsh Hovel - a sink full of beans which I shall be selling for gold by Christmas

I already have 25 bags of beans in the freezer and another 4 jars in oil in my larder but yesterday I picked the last of the 2021 harvest, enough to fill half a sink. Now you may laugh but it will be me who laughs last and loudest. Let me explain.


81 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Workmen quitting on me, this is part of that inflationary storm

Either quitting or not turning up or quoting daft prices or saying they can’t do anything till whenever. It is all part of the inflationary storm and I discuss that. Then daft broker and paid for research notes. Should regulators act? I think it is pointless. I look back to 2010 and 2001 and other notes, it is all just a sign of the times.


81 days ago

Video: Gold Stocks Are Only Industry Beating Inflation Today

Investor Michael Gentile has a simple message about the only way to cope with inevitable inflation coming down the track towards us and fast.


101 days ago

Video: Dr. Marc Faber - Inflation Cannot be Stopped and that will cause massive pain all round

Celebrated author and investor Marc Faber does not mince his words. Most stock markets and sectors have underperformed compared with US Markets. This, Faber explains, is because every time the Fed prints, it ends up with corporations and the super-rich. Markets are no longer homogenous, and fiscal deficits are no longer expanding. This is making it more difficult for the entire market to move upwards.


115 days ago

Video: Fed Will Be Caught Between Inflation and Market Crash

A final melt up followed by an 80% market crash? This David Hunter chap is a cheery fellow is he not?


123 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the thief in the night is now free

Good news: the mule with my money arrived last night. I shall buy the shares at 8.30 AM Monday and serve up a bonus bearcast/bullcast to explian my thinking then. The rest of today’s podcast covers inflation, the genie has escaped but what should you do?


138 days ago

Video: is it worth betting on deflation?

Precious metals analyst Jonathan Mergott considers that since everyone is betting on inflation making a big time comeback perhaps the contrarian trade is where to be.


139 days ago

Video: the great Ron Paul warns dollar panic will lead to economic collapse

Ron Paul for President! Sadly he never made it past the Republican Primaries. America is not ready for a honest, sound money libertarian yet. But the good doctor is still my hero. In this new video, Dr Paul discusses the need to reduce the size and scope of government. He argues that people today rely on the government too much, and politicians can’t resist taking advantage of this dependence. It’s like an addiction, and stopping it is a problem. The plunge protection team has done a miraculous job of propping up the market. But, unfortunately, Paul argues, the dollar will continue to decline, and inflation will result in the prices of everything going up.


158 days ago

Video: Bubbles Too Big to Fail Will Transfer into Inflation

Bankster and author Diego Parrilla defines a bubble and how misconceptions can distort reality at extreme values, either high or low. Every bubble has an anti-bubble.


165 days ago

Video: Inflation – Redefining Robbery

Nick Giambruno is Chief Analyst of The Casey Report and warns that the thief in the night is now out of control.  Nick differentiates money from fiat currency and where investors should hold their wealth in times of crisis. He argues that Bitcoin is a good alternative and is not unlike gold. Digital scarcity is a new invention, and the real revolution is in bitcoin, not other digital currencies. Bitcoin is unique because it isn’t controlled by banks or corporations and works as a form of digital gold. He believes bitcoin is in the process of monetization around the world.


166 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - more failures at the FCA and more bonuses plus Kefi & country risk

I start with a few thoughts on Kefi Gold & Copper (KEFI) in the wake of today’s scoop. Then it is onto more failings at the FCA and the scandal of its staff bonuses. Finally some thoughts on inflation which is now clearly starting to get a grip. Even so I can’t stop myself holding a good bit of cash.  


176 days ago

Video: Longer Term Inflation Coming

Writer Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” kicks off by explaining  how the Repo Markets function, their purpose, and what led to the September 2019 freeze. It’s the financial plumbing of the entire banking system where banks lend to each other. The front end of the curve acts as a temperature gauge for the system. Why does this matter?


187 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Peter Hitchens on inflation

I start with good news: Rogue Bloggers for woodlarks have now raised £42,781.89 so are just over £5,000 short of our target. I describe my training walk today and fears that R Lewis Esq may be a bit lof a girlie swot in the walking department. Anyhow, if you are yet to donate please do so HERE. Then, prompted by Peter Hitchens, I discuss inflation. It is not bnenign and as it grows it will hurt many. The signs of its menace are all afround us. So what do we do?


264 days ago

Video: Commodities Flashing inflation, gold is next

Money manager Vincent Lanci explains some of the terms surrounding the bond markets and the current signs of low investor interest. Strangely, there was a massive reaction on Thursday’s Treasury auction to that lack of interest. The market was behaving like it expected the Fed to raise rates. In his speech on Thursday, everything that Powell said revealed the Fed would not raise rates, and they were not concerned by inflation. They stated they would remain extremely accommodating.


306 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: The Mail on Sunday on Nightcap, are these folks on heroin?

I start with the question of who should pay for lockdown via taxes or inflation. Then it is onto an article by Harriet Dennys in the Mail on Sunday on NightCap (NGHT), the AIM baby of Sarah Willingham of Dragon’s Den which could go bust by July. The article is so bad, so full of massive factual errors and so utterly misleading that it is easily the worst piece of financial journalism I’ve seen so far this year. And that includes articles by Zak Mir. Seriously, writing this sort of bollocks does have consequences.


321 days ago

Video: Inflation Starting to Rear its Ugly Head: buy bitcoin and gold shares

Asset manager Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates argues that the system has failed due to unsound money, and an immediate restructuring would be preferable. The alternative may be dragging the process out for the next twenty years. He explains the differences between today and 2008 and why we haven’t seen much increase in money velocity yet.


326 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: rejoice, rejoice, rejoice - Three Brains has recovered!

I start with the new nickname for baby Jaya and why I am double sleep deprived. Men of my age really should not be fathering babies. Then to the great news, I have spoken to Chris Bailey and he is recovered and plans to start writing again this week. I discussed gold, inflation, market madness with Chris and relay our thoughts. Then I ask you to consider your mask wearing habits and discuss Remote Monitored Solutions (RMS). Finally can you top £150 for a bid for something worth 2 Euro which will not arrive for 6 months? Please do so before midnight HERE.  And the reason I may need to seek asylum in England is explained HERE.


345 days ago

Video: Fed will lose control of inflation so silver, gold and bitcoin will soar

Writer Lyn Alden looks at the economic downturn and notes  that we’ve seen a rebound in some asset classes, but, she argues, that it will take most of 2021 to see all the effects play out. We’ve seen a weaker dollar and slowing GDP growth globally. By late 2021 the global economy should improve gradually.


397 days ago

Video: 1970s Style Inflation Will Set Gold on Fire

Analyst David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors warns that we are now nearing the end stage of the current secular bull market in equities. He notes that markets move from excess to excess, and in the last stages, they can go parabolic. He expects a deflationary bust and a new debt liquidation cycle to begin in the first half of 2021.


454 days ago

Video: The Currency Reset is Here: sell dollars buy gold ahead of fireworks!

Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst at ITM Trading says that the Fed has been unable to hit its 2% inflation target, but she says, “The Fed is getting prepared because they expect to lose control of inflation soon.” The Fed plans to quietly introduce a cashless system with an 18 step plan early in 2021. This new system will enable the Fed to deposit money directly and will give them absolute control of their policies. This coming UBI stimulus scheme will be the fuel that starts hyperinflation fire since we are a consumer-driven economy; they have to get us to consume.


463 days ago

Video: Crashing Real Interest Rates Creating the Best Tailwind for $3500 Gold

Economist David Rosenberg says that flattened yield curves are promoting liquidity issues, credit supply has been contracting, and the velocity of money is also declining. So, he argues, if money velocity stabilizes were going to get a lot more inflation, and perhaps that is what gold is trying to signal.


548 days ago

Video: Inflation, Deflation, or Stagflation and the Implications for Gold

Investor Chris Temple argues that in the late 70s and early 80s, the dollar was inversely correlated with gold, and the markets reflected the real economy. Today, everything is inverted, but a lot of investors and experts still have the old out-of-date mindset.


1049 days ago

Podcast: Explosive upside for gold and silver

Entrepreneur Lior Gantz claims that the outlook for Gold and Silver is improving dramatically. His thesis is that recent market action has resulted in a rebound. In September mining stocks hit 52-week lows, and the regular markets are now entering bear market territory. Inflation is on the rise and many states are hiking their minimum wage. Recent US Dollar strength is actually a bearish sign.


1371 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: MV=PT and SP50 ASAP

I say in the bearcast that it is the 20th. Apologies. Alzheimer's again. I know it is the 25th. The P in MV=PT is inflation and unless you have been buying into asset bubbles over the past few years you may not have noticed how huge it has been. But now it is working its way into the real mainstream economy and that will impact corporate earnings and also base rates. How exposed are you? SP50 is the promo code you use to book a free investor class ticket at TODAY. I explain why you really must come along with a preview of some of what is going to take place. Book NOW!


1371 days ago

Video: Inflation Is Beginning To Rear Its Ugly Head

Ignore what Ed Karr says about ramping his own stocks. What he says about inflation, a word unfamiliar to younger readers, is of real note. In this podcast from Palisade Capital, Karr discusses how you need to time the market cycles correctly. Gold is currently catching a pretty good bid, particularly with the recent dollar decline. We have seen an increase in volatility recently, and things are looking pretty good for precious metals. We could break through the 1350 level this year, and 2018 is shaping up to be an excellent year for gold.


1533 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - IQE the valuation must be insane & interest rate rise ahoy!

It is my son's first birthday today - how time flies! I start with a look at inflation. It is back! And the greed of the lazy public sector workers (demonstrated clearly HERE) will fuel it which means interest rate rises ahoy. I suggest this has clear implications you should not ignore. Then I take a detailed look at IQE (IQE),its last results,investor perceptions and explain why I believe that the shares at 131p are a very poor risk reward play for the bulls like Comrade Stacey.


1741 days ago

The inflation genie is out of the bottle and that is great news for gold - Peter Schiff

Libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is one of my heros and his latest podcast reminds us all why we need material gold exposure in the months that lie ahead. Inflation is back!


1868 days ago

Becoming A Metalionaire – Go On the Offensive with Gold and Gold Stocks!

Many people wonder how it’s possible that so much money is being created without runaway inflation. Mining entrepreneur Lior Gantz believes it’s because the other side of the equation is deflation. The system is causing deflation in the private sector and inflation in the government sector. This creates a huge battle between inflation and deflation.


3211 days ago

Video Postcard Number 27

Greetings from deluded lefty central in Shipston-on-Stour. I think I got both sound and picture right this time! A short video as an afternoon of sporting misery beckons.

On the agenda

1. Cupid
2. S&U
3. UKInvestor Show
4. Market rotation bonds vs equities: Tom Stevenson
5. Inflation & equities
6. Gold and silver
7. The ability to price set
8. It is not a matter of life & death it is more important than that.


3463 days ago

Valuation anomalies ad absurdum

I am not sure of my Latin. No doubt my father or Evil Knievil or his father George could do better. What I note is just that very few stocks in London seem to be perfectly priced. At one end of the spectrum there are some ludicrously overpriced bags of huff and puff. I flagged up one such enterprise and explained why it was 90% overvalued earlier today here. But it is not alone – I am sure it is not hard to find another two or three dozen companies that are equally over-valued. And I shall turn my attention to Facebook later. Yet at the other end of the spectrum there are profitable companies trading at a discount to Tangible Net Asset value or even to net cash. This is bizarre.