Wednesday March 20, 2019
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PERSONAL, UNDILUTED VIEWS FROM TOM WINNIFRITH

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PE Ratios and why I am bearish ( but bullish)

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- Tom Winnifrith
think equities will go up, but I am bearish. If that sounds like the sort of TA nonsense that my pal Zak Mir spouts I apologise. Let me explain. Equities will go up because the bond bubble is only starting to burst. We will likely continue to see steady outflows from bonds into equities at an institutional level and that will push shares commensurately higher given the sheer mass of capital that is parked in bonds at present. To be more precise, it will push blue chips and mid caps higher as those are the sort of liquid stocks institutions will buy. I am not sure that it will do much for the riff-raff tail on AIM however!

Out of the frying pan into the fire. Are equities good value. The FTSE 100 I propose to ignore as it is heavily weighted towards stocks that are always on low PEs (Banks) and those which are British companies in name only – all their earnings are overseas. Instead I wish to draw your attention to the FTSE 250 Index which, at 12763.64 trades, now on a trailing price earnings ratio of, wait for it, 18.66 times. Towards the top end of its long term levels.

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