Personal and undiluted views
bear

23 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: a day for ouzo on my fecking cornflakes, lunchtime sandwich and evening pasta and salad

In today’s podcast I look at a raft of utter triumphs for me as a bear: Rosslyn Data (RDT) – no longer run by a former pornographer – [email protected] Capital (FRAUD), Chill Brands (CHLL), Braveheart Investment Management (BRH) and Parsley Box (PUKE).

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30 days ago

Now it's time to go to town on Eurasia Mining as a bear

Two or three weeks ago I clambered off the fence and explicitly told you to short Eurasia Mining (EUA) at 28p. The shares are now 23.6p in the middle. So far so good for we bears but the company is still valued by the market, on a fully diluted basis as there are loads of in the money options, at well over £700 million which is insane. A placing announced yesterday is the cue to add to your shorts.

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69 days ago

Photo Article: A Pickled present from our own garden greets us as we return to the Welsh Hovel

P, who has been looking after the gardens here at the Welsh Hovel during my near two month absence, has left them in great shape as photos that will follow over the next few days will show. But he also left a couple of gifts.

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70 days ago

Photo Article from the Welsh Hovel at 3.30 AM - who has been eating my porridge?

We drove from Heathrow with only a couple of stops and arrived back at the Welsh Hovel at 3.30 AM Greek Time. We were greeted by the cats for a tearful reunion and then in the kitchen found someone already at the table.

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161 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 26: A two and a half hour bear special with Lucian Miers and David Scott

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, sparky interviews with two great bears and some thoughts from myself. First up is the Bard of the Boleyn Lucian Miers followed by David Scott of Andrews Gwynne. Stocks to short and buy, asset allocation, macro-economics, it is all covered You can access the show HERE 

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174 days ago

Trolling a bear - moronic defenders of fraud sink to a new low as they attack Fraser Perring on twitter

Yesterday twitter was buzzing with shareholders in [email protected] Capital (SYME) trolling me and attacking me about this article which they clearly had not even read. That is double evidence of how dumb they are. But in case you think it is just me who gets this sort of low grade trolling, check out these tweets sent late last week to Fraser Perring, the bear who exposed Wirecard and is now sticking it to Grenke AG. I often wonder if ther wives of folks who send such tweets have any idea what their other half’s are up to and such despicable morons they think such behaviour will actually protect their investments in duff companies? 

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234 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Video Shareshow No 21: 2 1/2 hours of cannabis, bears, Lucian Miers and a new stock I've bought into

And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Ed McDermott of FastForward Innovations (FFWD) on cannabis stocks and his company. This is, I think, the most interesting CEO interview to date. Then I discuss a new share I have invested a five figure sum into on behalf of the company. Finally there is bear raider turned bull, the bard of the Boleyn, Lucian Miers. You can access the show HERE

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269 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Bear raider Andrew Left becomes a raging bull - is this a sign that we are at an insane market top

I start with the annual horror that is doing a tax return for the Mrs. It was a pleasant shock. Then onto Left and Gamestop. Then I look at MyHealthChecked (MHC), Novacyt (NCYT), Jubilee Metals (JLP), another man with a posh wife who might struggle with her tax return, Mr David Beckham and E-Guild (GILD) and the real issue at [email protected] Capital (SYME)

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284 days ago

Another Babcock warning, Another vindication for bear raider Boatman but does PR cock still taste good round at the Sunday Times?

It started in October 2018. Boatman Capital published its first bear dossier on Babcock International (BAB) with the shares at 672p. After yet another dire warning today, the stock trades at just 215p and still looks overvalued.

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285 days ago

Eurasia – a bid statement which will allow both bulls and bears to scream for joy in their echo chambers

Since both sides in this particular tussle speak only to folks of a similar bent, both will take enough from a statement that says nothing concrete, to allow them to scream for joy inside their respective echo chambers. Both camps will be emboldened in their GroupThink. But should they? Here are a few hard numbers to consider…


Eurasia Mining (EUA) first put itself up for sale in October 2019 and a formal process led by UBS started in July. So what is the state of play?

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341 days ago

When will [email protected] Capital collapse? A bear writes

I see that [email protected]’s (SYME) multi-shamed boss, Alessandro Zamboni, has done yet another soft interview with the Sith Lord Zak Mir. Repeated interviews with a man who makes Justin the Clown look like Jeremy Paxman are a strong red flag. You can’t deliver operationally so try to get the ramping away with a man who won’t ask awkward questions. So I asked a bear, who is short, when the shares will stop dribbling lower as they do most days and completely collapse. He said:

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416 days ago

Video: gold to hit $6000 according to the manager of "the world's most bearish hedge fund manager"

Given the shape of my portfolio, I really would not mind if Brian Hirschman, the Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership is right with this call. Brian’s firm is known as the “World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund.”

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424 days ago

Video: The Coming Great Depression Will Make the Last Look Like a Small Technical Correction

If you are feeling a bit low, you’d better not tune in to this one. Writer David Morgan is a bear at ever level

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630 days ago

FREE Podcast: ShareProphets Radio Edition 24 with Tom Winnifrith and the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl

My guest in this week’s show which is sponsored by Open Orphan PLC (ORPH) is my old pal, the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl. We discuss how a bear can make money in this market, Tesla (TSLA), NMC Health (NMC), Finablr (FIN), Burford (BUR), IQE (IQE) and in real detail Mark Slater, Sam Antar and Future (FUTR) in the wake of Matt’s bombshell dossier of last week. If you like this podcast and can’t wait seven days for more of the same and are tired of being a cheapskate you should listen to my Bearcast every day.

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636 days ago

AFC Energy, another spoof, the legal claim and the track record of shame

If you ask the bear community for its top 4 shorts on AIM certain companies seem to feature in almost every list….

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680 days ago

Breaking: Muddy Waters goes short NMC

I see that some plonker at the Evening Standard has just dismissed Carson Block of Muddy Waters as a “ridiculous, conspiracy theorist”. Au contraire Carson is a serious bear raider who is almost always right with his bear calls. Today he has announced that he is short of NMC Health (NMC). Carson writes:

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702 days ago

FREE Podcast: ShareProphets Radio Edition NINETEEN with Tom Winnifrith on how housebuilders can collapse, the three top AIM overpromotes and the Appbox scam

There are no guests in this week’s show which is sponsored by Open Orphan PLC (ORPH). It is just me and I start with the idea of it’s too good to be true at Intu (INTU) and that leads me on to look in some detail at the compelling bear case against all the housebuilders and what that means for other sectors and for you and me. Then I look at the 3 most overpromoted stocks on AIM, Bidstack (BIDS), Versarien (VRS) and AFC Energy (AFC), the common themes and why shares in all three will eventually collapse. But there is a warning for the bears too. Then it is onto the up to £15 million Appbox Media, One True View scandal I exposed this week HERE. If you like this and can’t wait seven days for more of the same and are tired of being a cheapskate you should listen to my Bearcast every day.

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715 days ago

The 5 most overvalued stocks on AIM according to Waseem Shakoor

Bet against the great Northern Bear Waseem Shakoor at your peril. He is invariably right and his ability to spot frauds and overpromotes is uncanny. So I asked the great man what he considered the five most overvalued stocks on the AIM casino. With an answer that will make him even more reviled on the Bulletin Boards, Waseem said:

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758 days ago

Lucian Miers & Tom Winnifrith feature in another cartoon by Versarien owning moron Roger the Grouch

Shareholders in Versarien (VRS) need something to cheer about as the wheels start to come off this ludicrous promote. Step forward moronic shareholder but talented cartoonist Roger the Grouch with this Rugby World Cup themed offering. I think I’m the fat bear, Lucian the squashed one. Natch ramper in chief Neill Ricketts is the hero..

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785 days ago

Breaking: Bear raider Marc Cohodes sued for $25m for alleged defamation during bear raid, papers below

 Bear raider Marc Cohodes is being sued for defamation for tweets he issued during a bear raid according to papers we publish below. Cohodes will no doubt have a good explanation but his accuser Guy Gentile who was a major shareholder in Lannett, the company that Cohodes was raising seems to have a strong case. Those, like Roger Lawson, who demand ever tighter and more draconian restrictions on those of a bearish opinion, should take note.

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847 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast; My top 10 mid cap shorts in this crazy, crazy world

We live in a mad, mad world and I cite four examples of this: the banning of the original US flag by Nike 48 hours ahead of July 4, illiterate Zak Mir going into PR, the PI love-in on Bulletin Boards with utterly worthless Premier African Minerals (PREM) and the IPO of Funding Circle (FCH). I look at Dialight (DIA), and Fastjet (FJET) and then list my top ten shorts worth more than £250 million (with two slightly smaller cheats included) and explain the bear case for each.

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1001 days ago

Frontera shares now worth 0p but changing hands at just 0.06p

The whore blogger Malcolm Graham Wood urged shareholders in Frontera Resources (FRR) to hang on after the shares – 0.28p at suspension, down more than 99% on the IPO – were booted off AIM.  The morons insisted they would be buying more as soon as they could and that shorters would be unable to close. Here, c/o the great Northern bear Waseem Shakoor is proof of the reality.

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1038 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the most shorted shares on AIM - the bear case is now even stronger

I start with a look at Frontera Resources (FRR) and what should and what may happen on Monday in light of this weekend's revelations. You would not want to be long of this one. Then I look at the most shorted shares on AIM and explain why for many of them, notably IQE (IQE), Telit (TCM), ASOS (ASC), Boohoo (BOO) and Victoria (VCP) the bear c ase has just got that much stronger, by an order of n, in the past few weeks. Finally a warning for shareholders in First Derivatives (FDP) - I have a small present for you tomorrow. :)

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1040 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Two cracking shorts for 2019 from Shy Bear

I am shortly off to stay with my mother in law in the Grim North for a couple of days. Joy to the world! I am made angry by Wishbone Gold (WSBN) and Turner Pope and comment on that. I look also at Totally (TLY), Range Resources (RRL), AO World (AO.), Pantheon Resources (PANR), Plant Health Care (PHC), BCA Marketplace (BCA) and ASOS (ASC).

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1043 days ago

Boohoo vs ASOS – “shy bear” explains why both are sells, but ASOS could unravel very soon indeed

Shy Bear is a reticent fellow but a short seller currently without exposure to this sector. Having listened to my, most excellent, bearcast yesterday he offers up a few thoughts. I know shy bear well and he is no fool. Ignore these stark warnings at your peril should you be foolish enough to contemplate a spot of bottom fishing. Over to Shy Bear who opines:

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1079 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bonus Bearcast: Excuse the triumphalism but crack out the fecking ouzo - IQE shocker profits alert

Ten miniutes before the close IQE (IQE) issued a shocking profits alert. The shares crashed 29% to 67p. Where will they go tomorrow? Excuse the triumphalism but I have been the biggest IQE bear going and, again, I say to my critics I was fucking well right and you are morons.  All is explained in this bonus podcast. PS If any moaning Taffies bleat on about the content well go feck yourselves and get over it.  Detailed financials are below:

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1107 days ago

Babcock International – Boatman Capital publishes bear dossier: here it is in full

Bear analysts Boatman Capital made the schoolboy error of leaking part of its report to the Sunday Times. The deadwood press is part of the problem not the solution. Thus the Sunset Times scuttled off to Babcock (BAB) allowing the company to spin its side and the paper to run a piece slating the bear commentary.  Such is the sordid state of financial journalism in Britain today. Anyhow for what it is worth the full report is now out and Babcock shares are starting to slide despite the company’s spinning c/o the deadwood press…

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1140 days ago

Xeros Results tomorrow – share price tells you that this Woodford dog is almost out of cash ( again)

No doubt Cynical Bear who has called Xeros Technology (XSG) superbly, as a sell, will be a smug fellow tomorrow as this Neil Woodford Dog announces its interim results. The share price action is telling you that folks already know the worst – shareholders have to bail it out again or it will be going down well before the Christmas decorations go up.

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1258 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Ocado can you smell burning bear paw?

I suspect that Ocado (OCDO) is even more overvalued after today's share price surge on the Kroger deal - it goes to show the dangers of shorting anything other than an outright fraud in the current climate. I look at the FOBT news - Nanny State gets more and more bossy every day. I look also at Mothercare (MTC), Foxtons (FOXT) and WH Ireland (WHI)

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1308 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Gloo Networks excusing my fecking French but this is a fecking disgrace at all levels

In this bearcast I cover Sosandar (SOS) as Cynical Bear pretends to be Ben Turney on steroids and then turn my fire to all the bad news that UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) is sitting on and may release well after hours tomorrow. Then I look at Gloo Networks (GLOO) which is linked to BCA Marketplace (BCA). Gloo is at every level a total fecking scandal of greed and well everything. I should warn you that there is a bad language alert as Gloo is everything that is wrong about the AIM Casino. If you like bearcasts then remember that at UK Investor on April 21 one of many highlights will be a live bearcast with myself and Paul Scott. Make sure you book a free ticket HERE using the promotional code WINNIFRITH

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1331 days ago

Mothercare - This is just not going to end well

I have been a long term bear of Mothercare (MTC) on the simple basis that I do not see it as having a USP any more. It is a pointless dinosaur like Toys R' Us. The latter is already toast as of last week, the most recent trading statement from Mothercare indicates that it will go the same way.

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1340 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - My friend goes down for 21 months but the real story is Neil Woodford's £45m overdraft

My friend and former colleague the aristocrat Dru Edmonstone was - as widely reported - sentenced to 21 months last week for a £60,000 benefits fraud, something the pathetic wretch did to fund his spread betting addiction. I discuss this and ask does a case like that of Dru justify the current clampdown on spreadbetters. I think such a clampdown would not have stopped Dru for addicts will always find a way. I discuss the odd goings on at Saffron Energy (SRON) which hardly inspire confideence. But my main focus is on the revelation HERE by Cynical Bear that Neil Woodford's flagship £7.1 billlion fund has taken on an overdraft, as an emergency measure to fund either redemptions or a growing collection of falling knives or both. If Woodford believes what he says about markets being overvalued - and I do - this is a sign that Britain's most conceited fund manager has completely lost the plot and may be not that far from the final collapse. 

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1374 days ago

Reader Post of the Week - Some more Dignity data for the bears to feast upon

If you listened to my bearcast of yesterday you will be in no doubt that I am aa big bear of Dignity (DTY) based on some simple maths. I take my hat off to a ShareProphets reader (Buy100ozSilver) for his maths in our comments section. His ( or her) post merits a wider audience.

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1399 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Boxing Day Bearcast, if Neil Woodford had a bad 2017 here is why 2018 will be much worse and soon

The most excellent Cynical Bear series on the massive issues that Neil "Nomates" Woodford faces and questions he must answer drew to a close yesterday HERE. Now I go further pushing those questions just a bit more, asdking new ones and outlining three scenarions that could see the Nomates empire and all his funds crumble very quickly indeed. 

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1502 days ago

Hugh Hendry calls it a day saying the market has got it wrong

Hugh Hendry was one of the funniest and articulate of fund managers and for a while his Eclectica funds delivered - as bears - spectacular returns. But Mr Market went against him and he has now closed up shop with his main fund worth a meagre $30.6 million. His final parting shot is a letter in which he has given up on fighting fake news. Over to the great man

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1503 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - joke valuations at Sound Energy and MySQUAR

If you are listening to bearcast today you must have subscribed to Shareprophets so I thank you. I start with management who are cleary wronguns at Real Good Foods (RGD) which is a disgrace and at Papillion (PPHP) which is far worse - hat tip Cynical Bear HERE. I look at Interserve (IRV). Its shares are slumping on a profits alert but the real horrors are the lies in the August 9 results statement. Still valued at £124 million this could halve again look at debt! Then it is onto MySquar (MYSQ) a good bet for a zero, and finally a trio of oilies, Range Resources (RRL) - its au revoir not goodbye - Pantheon (PANR) dreary and overvalued by a reasonable amount and Sound Energy (SOU) where the valuation is a 100% rum and coke.

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1606 days ago

Yes you should join Primary Bid NOW but do not take up its Toople offer whatever you do

Primary Bid's latest offer is its first non AIM placement. It boasts this as an achievement. But the company is Toople (TOOP) a proud member of Cynical Bear's Sub Standard XI. It is a dog and while I urge you all to join Primary Bid now HERE, I also urge you not to take up this offer.

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1693 days ago

Advanced Oncotherapy - Question 16: were you lying on November 24?

Cynical Bear says that I am just being far too kind to Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) with my 15 questions earlier today. Oddly I have yet to get an answer and nor will I as the company contemplates insolvency and other matters. But back to Mr Bear who says I should have asked a 16th question concerning another possible case of lying.

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1719 days ago

Photo Article...let it snow , let it snow let it snow (in Metsovo) as I ponder the bear threat

It felt decidedly nippy last night as i wandered out for a light meal of calf in tomato sauce.I was struck by how the only language I heard was Greek, not Vlach, But also how the waiter spoke English. Fourty years ago more or less no-one here in Metsovo did. The other big change was the women.

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1753 days ago

The Great Waseem on the "Seven Steps" of Cloudtag pump & hype

Yesterday I tried to explain the psychology of AIM fraud and fraudsters with reference to both African Potash (AFPO) and Cloudtag (CTAG). The great bear raider Waseem Shakoor also published a note explaining the seven steps of Cloudtag hype to facilitate is main business of share issuance. As you'd expect it is a cracking read. Over to the great Waseem

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1807 days ago

Video: Peter Schiff on carnage in the bond markets post Trump

Folks have focussed on how shares have zoomed since Donald Trump won but what about the bond market which saw its worst week for five years? What does that mean and will it continue? Yes it will. That is the warning of libertarian hero and perma bear Peter Schiff in his latest podcast. 

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1857 days ago

Photo article: Racist Bear joins the household

The presents for baby with no name continue to flood in. Last week saw a box arrive from the colleagues of the Mrs who had taken time off from filling the empty minds of impressionable millennials with left wing nonsense, to send us some gifts. There were flowers and chocolates for the Mrs but nothing for me as I am a patriarchal white man who exposed himself as an evil capitalist in a lecture given to the students of the Mrs. For the baby with no name there was a balloon and a small teddy.

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1928 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Avanti Communications bull vs bear

I had the weirdest of phone calls on Friday from a chap who insists that as a bear of Avanti Communications (AVN) I have got it wrong. I have spoken about his thesis to Lucian and having thought about it over lunch at the White Bear having run the gauntlet of Shipston's Bulgarian Big Issue seller, I am more sure than before that I am not wrong to remain bearish. I discuss the bull vs bear debate giving both sides of the argument and my conclusion.

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1945 days ago

Papillon Holdings - FD engages in a quick spot of tax minimization

Recently listed Papillon Holdings (PPHP) is - as Cynical Bear pointed out here - clearly an overvalued rum and coke. But in its brief existence it has at least achieved something: helping the FD slash his tax bill. Oh what jolly good news for the crony capitalists, coke and hookers all round.

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1945 days ago

SyQic - now shares suspended, is the CEO playing it straight?

Cynical Bear has already covered the stinking pus filled boil that is the bid for SyQic (SYQ) by its own CEO Jamal Hassim. Today it just got even smellier with the suspension of the shares.

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1991 days ago

Video: Uber bear economics from David Scott at UK Investor Show

This s why so many of us on this website are so bearish at a macro level. David Scott of Andrews Gwynne articulates the bear economics case very clearly. Enjoy!

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2029 days ago

Telecom Plus sliding on Berenberg downgrade - I'm a bit confused

Shares in Telecom Plus (TEP) are down 40p to 843p thanks to a downgrade of stance from buy to hold by Berenberg in the note below. The target price comes down from 1400p to 1000p so with upside at the start of the day of 14% surely that makes the shares cheap? Whatever. It seems an anodine note to me. I remain a bear as per Kevin Ashton's most awesome analysis HERE but you make up your own mind

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2046 days ago

Gulf Keystone Full Year Numbers - What you smell is Toast, 1p best case target

As a bear of Gulf Keystone (GKP) since 180p, I note that the shares are now just 11p after the publication of results which are at every level just a disaster - even today this is a storming sell. Where to start?

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2053 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 11 March - Being uber bearish and being a mean bastard to wronguns like Lawson

I repeat my request re itunes - please go give Bearcast a 5* rating now. Then I refer to Amanda's piece earlier which is a compelling lesson in why its right to be a bear. Finally I explain why I am a mean bastard when dealing with Dr Harold Shipman, oops I meant Roger Lawson of ShareSoc.

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2059 days ago

Craven House Capital Interims - is the Cenianko investment still worth £703,830? Er...

Receiving the baton from Cynical Bear we now continue the detailed series on the 100% rum and coke that is AIM Casino listed Craven House Capital (CRV). Now let's turn to Ceniako.

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2061 days ago

Craven House Capital - The 100% Joke Continues - What is the real value of Pressfit Holdings ?

Cynical Bear showed what a total joke, AIM listed Craven House Capital (CRV) was. Now here is another total killer. If Nomad Spark was not aware of our full coverage yesterday from CB (HERE) it is now. And it should resign at once, this company is simply not investment grade material. It is uninvestable crap. And that brings me to Pressfit- a company that I have lambasted before HERE. 

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2065 days ago

Stelios says Fastjet profit forecasts fantasy, says cash crisis looming as he calls EGM

Oh dear. Baby Bear called this one to 0p at Gold & Bears HERE since when shares in Fastjet (FJET) have soared but now the chickens are coming home to roost with Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou warning that the company has misled investors and is facing a cash crunch.

Sir Stelios co-founded the aurline and with a 12.6% holding has called an EGM to oust CEO Ed Winter and his boardroom patsy, the airline's general counsel Krista Bates. Stelios says that the company has guided analysts to make forecasts about revenues and profits which are simple fantasies "a pipe-dream”.

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2069 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 25 Feb: Bingo Bango Bongo & the lie of Business against Brexit

I end with a look at Bango (BGO) and why I would not be tempted. I start with a look at the markets and why I remain a bear avec mon ami le grenouille Thierry, despite the markets having a big up day. Most of the podcast is dedicated to taking apart the establishment managers and other lunatics who make up the 200 business-persons against Brexit. They are wrong and they do NOT speak for business. 

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2094 days ago

Hey Morons - what are your Daniel Stewart shares really worth? Ask Waz Shakoor if he's still feeling generous?

There are some folks out there, notably on the LSE Asylum, that think that an unlisted Daniel Stewart (DAN) which is almost out of cash is actually worth anything? Think again, morons.

The Great Northern Bear Waz Shakoor went short at 2.25p

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2108 days ago

Condor Gold - Lack of Offer Period over - it's screwed

Back in September ailing AIM listed gold dog Condor (CNR) announced that it was undertaking a strategic review and was in an offer period. Today it says both processes are over. It was bollocks from the start, you can't polish a turd and this company - of which I have been a long term bear - is screwed. It is almost game over. It will be lights out in May.

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2284 days ago

Globo – This article begs some incredibly tough questions

I am a long term and unapologetic bear of Globo (GBO) because the valuation just does not stack up. At 46p the market cap is £157 million. I cannot see free operating cashflow this year topping £10 million. I am not saying that this is a Norfolk just that the shares discount an awful lot of good news. They are overvalued. And… 

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2306 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - 4th July, Independence is on my mind

Happy Independence day to our American listeners. My prayers are that tomorrow Greece votes for freedom and votes Oxi! But will it? And what does that mean for the Euro and shares. I note Goldman Sachs claims that a Nai vote will see global equities rise by 10%. Hmmm, I think it misses the bear in the China shop. A few thoughts brought to you from Athens in today's podcast.

This podcast is recorded in the most excellent Anthropology cafe in Athens which I heartily recommend - although it really needs to start stocking ouzo

And fear not Champagne Charlie Gibson fans, I had not forgotten about you. Just a reminder of why the Edison analyst is a convicted felon HERE and as a bonus a reminder of how it is not only the poor he screws HERE - and a reminder of why I feel the urge to remind you all HERE

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2310 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 30 June No 1 - Felon Charlie Gibson, Sefton & Impairment

Before I turn to Sefton and the wider issue of impairment (or not) on the AIM casino I am still bristling after being rubbed up the wrong way last night by an apologist for convicted felon Charlie Gibson and so until I get bored I wish to remind you of why Gibson is a felon (HERE). Then onto today's business. To give flip flop a break there are a few comments on Sefton's results and why I am still a bear. Then the issue of asset impairment and today's Kansas news vindicates a lot of what Dan Levi and I said about Jimmyliar Ellerton. But it raises the wider issue of inadequate impairment reviews on the AIM casino.

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2362 days ago

Video interview from the UK Investor Show Blogger's Cafe: the UK's leading bear Lucian Miers

Lucian Miers is now widely recognised as the most astute bear in Britain giving his enormous attention to detail and meticulous research. He puts the forensics into short selling. At the UK Investor Show as well as dominating the main stage bears session, Lucian recorded a short video interview. He can be followed on twitter @Lucianmiers and writes a weekly short letter on the Nifty Fifty website

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2367 days ago

Video of presentation by Rightster at UK Investor Show 2015

I have called this one correctly as a bear but fair dues to Rightster (RSTR) for still having the balls to turn up and present at UK Investor Show.

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2382 days ago

Thanks for attending UK Investor Show – 2016 Half Price tickets now on offer & Photos from 2015

I hope that you had a great day yesterday at Uk Investor Show.  I certainly had fun although I should confess to having a bit of a sore head today.  Before we go on, I take my hat off to Audioboom PLC for showing an incredibly sense of humour. We had a bit of a spat a few months ago. They thought I was a bad Bear. I thought they should apologise and send over a large bag of coke to say sorry. And so Audioboom pitched up at the show with a present for me as you can see below. 

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2412 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast - the Disgrace and Omnishambles that is Gulfsands Petroleum

As a long term bear from more than 100p down I note with grim satisfaction that following its latest admissions Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) sees its shares at just 25p. I warned you. This is a tale of disgraceful boardroom antics as well as a cash crisis. I name the guilty men and have kind advice for both the new board and those investors who ignored me and listened to others and stayed on the shareholder list.

If you enjoy this sort of thing you will love UK Investor Show. With fewer than 200 of 2,000 seats left for April 18th book your place now HERE

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2507 days ago

Tom Winnifrith's BearCast - 15 December, Quindell not mentioned once!

It's a first. A daily podcast not mentioning Quenron (QPP) at all. But for the record its shares dived by 7.2% to close at just 38.5p. Only 38.5p to go to fair value. Instead I discuss Ludorum, Mysale, Naibu, China Chaintek, Enables IT, Ultrasis, Touchstone Gold, Beacon Hill, LGO and why I remain an equities bear. However I reveal a very small AIM company in which we have just made a material (for us) investment.

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2562 days ago

Quindell Red Flags on Overload as Maine Finance Ltd files its annual report

This came onto my desk yesterday and is a true horror story (unless you are a bear).  Of all of the stinking Quenron subsidiary accounts to emerge so far this is arguably the one that stinks the most. But I still have plenty more to go through so I will not award the “stinkiest Quenron subsidiary accounts 2013” title just yet. I covered the POS that is Maine Finance Ltd in a preliminary way yesterday night in a 40 minute presentation showing clearly that Quindell was a fraud and worth 0p. The video of that talk and accompanying slides will go live within 36 hours and the 2 PLC FDs in the room were horrified by what they heard. But back to Maine Finance Limited.

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2574 days ago

Tom Winnifrith’s Daily BearCast – October 7

Everyone else seems to be doing a podcast so I thought I’d do one. But unlike that soppy git on ADVFN who keeps telling folk to buy everything I am a bear by nature and this will be the BearCast. A daily look at profits warnings, what is wrong with the economy and markets and shorting opportunities. I do not mince my words. In this inaugural edition I look at:

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2580 days ago

It is almost worth going to New York for this bearfest - brilliant video

This video is superb, In a humourous way it demonstrates why bears & short sellers provide such a valuable service to the stockmarket and it promises another major China fraud expose next week. I am almost tempted to head off to the Big Apple for the party...

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2658 days ago

ShareProphets (Prophets of Doom), REM, Bulletin Board Morons – a FINAL word

On twitter, on various bulletin boards and on the comments section here on ShareProphets  and elsewhere we have come under sustained attack for 24 hours – let me set the record straight. And then I can get back to dealing with the snakes, rats and bats that infest my home for the summer in Greece.

  1. Some commentators have stated that they have no sympathy with the threats made against myself, ChrisOil and James Parter by Bulletin Board Morons BUT… we have brought it on ourselves by being so bearish, etc. Bollocks. There can be no BUYS on this one. Making threats is illegal. And threatening writers because you disagree with what they say is just plain wrong. Anyone who cannot appreciate that there can be no BUT’s in this matter has a screw loose. I suggest they start their therapy by reading 1984 ref ThoughtCrime and follow that up with On Liberty by John Stuart Mill.
     
  2. Others attack ShareProphets 
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2669 days ago

Blinkx – questions for the Sunday Times and for Numis Securities

I read with interest a puff piece for blinkx (BLNX) in the Money section of The Sunday Times. For the avoidance of doubt, despite receiving two lawyers’ letters from this company, I have always been a bear and remain so after last week’s dire profits alert as you can see HERE. But what makes newspapers print this shit other, perhaps, than that the journalists might get a cushy job on “the dark side” if they such enough PR cock for long enough.

The ST headline is “Tech boss buys shares on the cheap” – the story is how Subhransu Mukherjee, the CEO of POS enterprise blinkx bought 250,000 shares in his company at 34p after last week’s dire profits warning. But why does the Sunset Times reckons that 34p is cheap? There is absolutely no analytical evidence for that assertion and I note that:

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2727 days ago

In Defence of Shorting not of market Abuse

Yesterday I posted a long defence of critical journalism, explaining why it is something that investors should welcome (though they rarely do). Today I move onto shorting which, I note, is one again something that some people want banned. They are wrong and this is why. 

I accept that those who short are not providing what one might term a “useful” function in society. They are not creating jobs. Instinctively one might think of them as parasites.  Their motive is pure greed. However shorting is risky. The most you can lose going long is 100% while your gains are in theory much greater. With shorting the reverse is true. And so it takes an odd sort of individual to sate his greed via shorting.  

Having said all of that 

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2874 days ago

Hugh Hendry Mega Bear capitulates - good news or bad?

Hugh Hendry is a very smart fund manager indeed and is a bear. His returns, on that basis, over the past twelve months, have not been very good.  He has managed his risk to minimising the losses but there is no disguising the fact that he has suffered for being a bear.

And thus he has just written to those who invest in his funds saying, in a rather long winded manner, “hands up.” Indeed Hendry warns that share prices could be about to go sharply higher. That is not because they are cheap. Hendry believes that on fundamentals equities are not attractively valued. I tend to agree.

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3039 days ago

Mining stocks: Mr Mega Bear Roger Bade is still bearish - new report

Roger Bade the mining analyst at Whitman Howard has called both metals prices and the mining sector very accurately. That is to say he has been bearish. And in his quarterly  review he remains bearish. Those tempted to bottom fish might want to have a quick look at his report out today before getting too enthusiastic.

The report covers the outlook for most metals but also a few company specific comments as well as a note on the worsening political situation in Mozambique – watch out Kenmare Resources (KMR). Roger writes:

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3090 days ago

AVN, RPO, SXX, QPP, XEL, GKP, CUP, ASC - the Great Conspiracy Revealed

They do not like it up ‘em. Shares in some of the darlings of the AIM Cesspit have taken a bit of a hit of late and some folks, the believers, believe that this is the result of a great conspiracy involving myself, Evil Knievil, Lucian Miers, Zak Mir, Red Evans and others. How about a quick look at the facts.

It is almost flattering to think that our wee band could wipe £300 million off the market value of Quindell (QPP). If only we were so powerful. As it happens Zak, myself, Evil and Lucian were all bearish on this company and we have been proved right. We are not always right but here we were correct. But the whole world is asking valid questions of Quindell now and that is why the shares have tanked. It is just that we called it correctly first. Is it a crime to be right and to ask valid questions?

 

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3182 days ago

Avanti – A screaming short, er...that is Avanti Mining

Calm down, we will turn to our own Avanti Communications (LSE:AVN) next week as it reports results. There is a legitimate bull vs Bear debate here too. But today’s Avanti is a TSX listed miner capitalised at $37 million. It is pure comedy.

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3187 days ago

Weekend Video Postcard Number 20

As per request the weekend video postcard is back. I found my camera, my tripod and I hope that this all works well enough – damn seem to have goofed on lighting again. I am out of practice. A simple few thoughts to (re) start with & no crowing about the rugby in case Olivia watches.

On the Agenda

1. Bull versus Bear the markets debate short term
2. Longer term – what inflation must mean, a more bearish tone.
3. The dynamics of new media
4. Steve Moore, ex senior writer at t1ps.com joins me working on the Nifty Fifty – the old t1ps team is now 100% reunited on our new website
5. Leslau vs Wray with me in the middle. More on UKInvestor Show where fewer than 500 seats now remain.

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3204 days ago

PE Ratios and why I am bearish ( but bullish)

think equities will go up, but I am bearish. If that sounds like the sort of TA nonsense that my pal Zak Mir spouts I apologise. Let me explain. Equities will go up because the bond bubble is only starting to burst. We will likely continue to see steady outflows from bonds into equities at an institutional level and that will push shares commensurately higher given the sheer mass of capital that is parked in bonds at present. To be more precise, it will push blue chips and mid caps higher as those are the sort of liquid stocks institutions will buy. I am not sure that it will do much for the riff-raff tail on AIM however!

Out of the frying pan into the fire. Are equities good value. The FTSE 100 I propose to ignore as it is heavily weighted towards stocks that are always on low PEs (Banks) and those which are British companies in name only – all their earnings are overseas. Instead I wish to draw your attention to the FTSE 250 Index which, at 12763.64 trades, now on a trailing price earnings ratio of, wait for it, 18.66 times. Towards the top end of its long term levels.

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3294 days ago

Avanti Communications: Bull vs Bear

The communications policy of AIM listed satellite group Avanti Communications (AVN) is a shambles. That does not assist those of us who still believe in this company. Right now my old friend Lucian Miers, the Bard of the Boleyn, and my (struck off) accountant Simon Cawkwell (aka Evil Knievil) are short of the stock. Having first tipped the shares yonks ago at 116p I think that, at 279.5p the shares are remarkably cheap. But the bear case is worth examining. As such here goes…

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