58 days ago
I don’t think Greene King (GNK) will go bust for along while but I delight in its woke folly, so typical of big corporates today. Then I discuss Gary’s piece on Bushveld Minerals (BMN) and why I am a perma bear.
100 days ago
Analyst David Kranzler is a bear on most things and also warns that the MSM lies to us all. He sounds like a good chap on that basis.
111 days ago
I argued, as the shares collapsed yesterday, that my long term bear thesis on Lansdowne Oil & Gas (LOGP) was now vindicated, But a shareholder, who is no fool, thinks I may be wrong. I am prepared to accept that I am sometimes wrong so for balance, the punter writes:
239 days ago
I see that, on twitter, comrade Gary Newman of this parish is suggesting that he is tempted by Audioboom (BOOM) largely because he sees there being more and more demand for podcasts.as his friend and colleague I urge him to sit down in a dark room, dream about kissing poisonous spiders in the jungle, and think again. Today’s 2022 trading update adds to the bear case as outlined by Lucian Miers in his tip of the year HERE, it is no reason to buy.
240 days ago
I refer at the end to a podcast on the Northern Ireland census I recorded today. Honestly it is more interesting than it sounds and is HERE. I start with Malcolm’s failed career as a bear and where blue chips and small caps go from here. Then onto our bombshell on Caracal (GCAT) today HERE and all the other red flags and why it matters that the FCA acts on this one.
284 days ago
Home REIT (HOME) has today published a very detailed and wordy attempted rebuttal of the bear dossier served up by Fraser Perring at Viceroy Research, HERE. But has Home dealt with the bears? Au contraire. Both Fraser and another leading grizzly have hit back with a series of questions and comments which I can reveal exclusively, below ahead of a conference call at 11.30 AM.
312 days ago
I am not being paid to promote this but flag it up anyway as libertarian gloom monger David Scott is always entertaining, as well as always bearish about the world we live in. Thus, if you are at a loose end tonight at 7.30 and fancy coming away really depressed, he is holding an online zoom seminar. Accessing it is simple.
315 days ago
Maybe I shall save the celebratory ouzos for tonight and double up as I watch liberal tears as we see a Red Wave in the mid terms. I discuss that briefly then go on to look at Applied Graphene (AGM) and what it is like running a company facing corporate death as well as the ethics of my scoop last night. I look at Online Blockchain (OBC), Mello destroying its brand c/o Zamaz (ZAMZ), Argo Blockchain (ARB) and a couple of points about Seraphine (BUMP) from an accounting perspective and in terms of changing consumer behaviour and also how as a bear one can do non financial DD.
316 days ago
My friend Gabriel Grego has, along with a stack of other bears, been hit by a law suit from a biotech company he has taken on, Cassava (SAVA). Gabriel is too much of a gent to steal my catchphrase “see you in Court bitchez” but he says so in rather more gentle words. As my old pal Evil Knievil once noted “legal action is not an invitation to go short but an obligation.”
370 days ago
The photo below was of me at Sharestock talking about fraud. I discuss the day and ask those who attended to say which speakers I should drop for next year and to make any other comments. Then I discuss what profits warnings are inevitable a week on Tuesday. PS Thanks to those offering gifts of wine and ouzo yesterday. It is much appreciated although I am not inquite the right place to start on them today.
421 days ago
I have no skin in this game, though I wouldn’t wish to own shares in Flip Flop’s Kavango Resources (KAV). However, as the two men go to war, it is time to grab some beer and popcorn and enjoy from the sidelines. Then, I look at Asimilar’s (ASLR) cash crisis, and Red Rock Resources (RRR) where, despite Andrew Bell pulling his usual trick, I hang on. Finally, I take a detailed look at Ince Group (INCE), where I am now 90% vindicated, with the shares crashing to c. 5p. I await an apology from its PR man, who suggested that, at 52p just before Christmas, I was wrong to be such a bear. To watch my next hat eating, go HERE.
431 days ago
I start with the weekend: a pointless covid test, Jaya’s christening and a possible road trip to Greece. Then, I discuss Malcolm Stacey’s Damascene Conversion to the bear cause, which makes me think that I should become a bull.
466 days ago
I have just arrived in Wales with my battered diesel van. Bed beckons, as I am still cream-crackered following yesterday’s walk. The photos below are from two towns along the route, and show the likes of me and Lucian are greeted with the respect we deserve in that part of the world. I discuss Brian Basham’s 26-mile cheat, but still, he is amazing. We have now raised £29,000 with gift aid, and that should rise this week. Feel free to donate, HERE. I discuss the big macro lesson from the walk, referencing Kinovo (KINO); St James Place (STJ), and the troubles one has in a bear market; and Hargreaves Lansdown (HL). Now to bed.
494 days ago
Lucian Miers’ (the bear raider) top three UK short positions are:
494 days ago
In today’s podcast, I look at: Vast Resources (VAST) and the bogus bear squeeze; Eurasia Mining (EUA); Powerhouse Energy (PHE); Kinovo (KINO) and the fallout from my scoop yesterday, which is now confirmed; Made.com (MADE); and why Petropavlovsk (POG) is a zero. Also, do grab a (free) ticket to UK Investor on Saturday; tomorrow, I shall give the question you must ask one of the presenters. The Rogue Bloggers for Woodlarks have now raised 21% of their target. To the 95% of listeners yet to donate, please do so HERE.
584 days ago
Are shares in Hurricane Energy (HUR) overvalued at 7p,amarket cap of £141 million. On fundamentals, you bet. But…is it a stock to short. I asked the question to the Professional Northerner Bear, Waseem Shakoor whose expertise includes the study of small oil plays. Waseem says:
592 days ago
Author and journalist Larry McDonald writes about global political and systemic risk and how to make money from it. He starts his bear thesis with assessing how dangerous the extreme leverage within ALL markets has become.
607 days ago
I start with the University of Chester and despair. Then a win for the bears, well done Fraser. Then I look at Nanosynth (NNN), Advance Energy (AVD), Omega Diagnostics (ODX), Supply@ME Capital (FRAUD), Chill Brands (LIARS) and the GM called to sack Clem Chambers at ADVFN (AFN)
608 days ago
If the share price of a company is in sharp decline and the CEO walks it is for one of two reasons and neither is good. It could be that the CEO knows that things can only get worse and wants to put as much clear blue water between him and a ship that is bound to sink. Or the rest of the board know that stakeholders will only do what is needed to try to keep the ship afloat if there is a change of captain, it is an admission that the ship is in deep trouble. Either way it is always a sign to sell or short or add to shorts and that brings me to Omega Diagnostics (ODX) where I have been a long term bear.
725 days ago
In today’s podcast I look at a raft of utter triumphs for me as a bear: Rosslyn Data (RDT) – no longer run by a former pornographer – Supply@ME Capital (FRAUD), Chill Brands (CHLL), Braveheart Investment Management (BRH) and Parsley Box (PUKE).
732 days ago
Two or three weeks ago I clambered off the fence and explicitly told you to short Eurasia Mining (EUA) at 28p. The shares are now 23.6p in the middle. So far so good for we bears but the company is still valued by the market, on a fully diluted basis as there are loads of in the money options, at well over £700 million which is insane. A placing announced yesterday is the cue to add to your shorts.
772 days ago
P, who has been looking after the gardens here at the Welsh Hovel during my near two month absence, has left them in great shape as photos that will follow over the next few days will show. But he also left a couple of gifts.
772 days ago
We drove from Heathrow with only a couple of stops and arrived back at the Welsh Hovel at 3.30 AM Greek Time. We were greeted by the cats for a tearful reunion and then in the kitchen found someone already at the table.
863 days ago
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, sparky interviews with two great bears and some thoughts from myself. First up is the Bard of the Boleyn Lucian Miers followed by David Scott of Andrews Gwynne. Stocks to short and buy, asset allocation, macro-economics, it is all covered You can access the show HERE
876 days ago
Yesterday twitter was buzzing with shareholders in Supply@ME Capital (SYME) trolling me and attacking me about this article which they clearly had not even read. That is double evidence of how dumb they are. But in case you think it is just me who gets this sort of low grade trolling, check out these tweets sent late last week to Fraser Perring, the bear who exposed Wirecard and is now sticking it to Grenke AG. I often wonder if ther wives of folks who send such tweets have any idea what their other half’s are up to and such despicable morons they think such behaviour will actually protect their investments in duff companies?
936 days ago
And now from Wales, by just 30 yards, it is my new weekly video show. This costs 99p per episode, and you can either listen to, or watch, some sparky interviews with Ed McDermott of FastForward Innovations (FFWD) on cannabis stocks and his company. This is, I think, the most interesting CEO interview to date. Then I discuss a new share I have invested a five figure sum into on behalf of the company. Finally there is bear raider turned bull, the bard of the Boleyn, Lucian Miers. You can access the show HERE
971 days ago
I start with the annual horror that is doing a tax return for the Mrs. It was a pleasant shock. Then onto Left and Gamestop. Then I look at MyHealthChecked (MHC), Novacyt (NCYT), Jubilee Metals (JLP), another man with a posh wife who might struggle with her tax return, Mr David Beckham and E-Guild (GILD) and the real issue at Supply@ME Capital (SYME)
986 days ago
It started in October 2018. Boatman Capital published its first bear dossier on Babcock International (BAB) with the shares at 672p. After yet another dire warning today, the stock trades at just 215p and still looks overvalued.
987 days ago
Since both sides in this particular tussle speak only to folks of a similar bent, both will take enough from a statement that says nothing concrete, to allow them to scream for joy inside their respective echo chambers. Both camps will be emboldened in their GroupThink. But should they? Here are a few hard numbers to consider…
Eurasia Mining (EUA) first put itself up for sale in October 2019 and a formal process led by UBS started in July. So what is the state of play?
1043 days ago
I see that Supply@MECapital’s (SYME) multi-shamed boss, Alessandro Zamboni, has done yet another soft interview with the Sith Lord Zak Mir. Repeated interviews with a man who makes Justin the Clown look like Jeremy Paxman are a strong red flag. You can’t deliver operationally so try to get the ramping away with a man who won’t ask awkward questions. So I asked a bear, who is short, when the shares will stop dribbling lower as they do most days and completely collapse. He said:
1118 days ago
Given the shape of my portfolio, I really would not mind if Brian Hirschman, the Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership is right with this call. Brian’s firm is known as the “World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund.”
1126 days ago
If you are feeling a bit low, you’d better not tune in to this one. Writer David Morgan is a bear at ever level
1332 days ago
My guest in this week’s show which is sponsored by Open Orphan PLC (ORPH) is my old pal, the Dark Destroyer Matt Earl. We discuss how a bear can make money in this market, Tesla (TSLA), NMC Health (NMC), Finablr (FIN), Burford (BUR), IQE (IQE) and in real detail Mark Slater, Sam Antar and Future (FUTR) in the wake of Matt’s bombshell dossier of last week. If you like this podcast and can’t wait seven days for more of the same and are tired of being a cheapskate you should listen to my Bearcast every day.
1338 days ago
If you ask the bear community for its top 4 shorts on AIM certain companies seem to feature in almost every list….
1382 days ago
I see that some plonker at the Evening Standard has just dismissed Carson Block of Muddy Waters as a “ridiculous, conspiracy theorist”. Au contraire Carson is a serious bear raider who is almost always right with his bear calls. Today he has announced that he is short of NMC Health (NMC). Carson writes:
1404 days ago
There are no guests in this week’s show which is sponsored by Open Orphan PLC (ORPH). It is just me and I start with the idea of it’s too good to be true at Intu (INTU) and that leads me on to look in some detail at the compelling bear case against all the housebuilders and what that means for other sectors and for you and me. Then I look at the 3 most overpromoted stocks on AIM, Bidstack (BIDS), Versarien (VRS) and AFC Energy (AFC), the common themes and why shares in all three will eventually collapse. But there is a warning for the bears too. Then it is onto the up to £15 million Appbox Media, One True View scandal I exposed this week HERE. If you like this and can’t wait seven days for more of the same and are tired of being a cheapskate you should listen to my Bearcast every day.
1417 days ago
Bet against the great Northern Bear Waseem Shakoor at your peril. He is invariably right and his ability to spot frauds and overpromotes is uncanny. So I asked the great man what he considered the five most overvalued stocks on the AIM casino. With an answer that will make him even more reviled on the Bulletin Boards, Waseem said:
1460 days ago
Shareholders in Versarien (VRS) need something to cheer about as the wheels start to come off this ludicrous promote. Step forward moronic shareholder but talented cartoonist Roger the Grouch with this Rugby World Cup themed offering. I think I’m the fat bear, Lucian the squashed one. Natch ramper in chief Neill Ricketts is the hero..
1487 days ago
Bear raider Marc Cohodes is being sued for defamation for tweets he issued during a bear raid according to papers we publish below. Cohodes will no doubt have a good explanation but his accuser Guy Gentile who was a major shareholder in Lannett, the company that Cohodes was raising seems to have a strong case. Those, like Roger Lawson, who demand ever tighter and more draconian restrictions on those of a bearish opinion, should take note.
1549 days ago
We live in a mad, mad world and I cite four examples of this: the banning of the original US flag by Nike 48 hours ahead of July 4, illiterate Zak Mir going into PR, the PI love-in on Bulletin Boards with utterly worthless Premier African Minerals (PREM) and the IPO of Funding Circle (FCH). I look at Dialight (DIA), and Fastjet (FJET) and then list my top ten shorts worth more than £250 million (with two slightly smaller cheats included) and explain the bear case for each.
1703 days ago
The whore blogger Malcolm Graham Wood urged shareholders in Frontera Resources (FRR) to hang on after the shares – 0.28p at suspension, down more than 99% on the IPO – were booted off AIM. The morons insisted they would be buying more as soon as they could and that shorters would be unable to close. Here, c/o the great Northern bear Waseem Shakoor is proof of the reality.
1740 days ago
I start with a look at Frontera Resources (FRR) and what should and what may happen on Monday in light of this weekend's revelations. You would not want to be long of this one. Then I look at the most shorted shares on AIM and explain why for many of them, notably IQE (IQE), Telit (TCM), ASOS (ASC), Boohoo (BOO) and Victoria (VCP) the bear c ase has just got that much stronger, by an order of n, in the past few weeks. Finally a warning for shareholders in First Derivatives (FDP) - I have a small present for you tomorrow. :)
1742 days ago
I am shortly off to stay with my mother in law in the Grim North for a couple of days. Joy to the world! I am made angry by Wishbone Gold (WSBN) and Turner Pope and comment on that. I look also at Totally (TLY), Range Resources (RRL), AO World (AO.), Pantheon Resources (PANR), Plant Health Care (PHC), BCA Marketplace (BCA) and ASOS (ASC).
1745 days ago
Shy Bear is a reticent fellow but a short seller currently without exposure to this sector. Having listened to my, most excellent, bearcast yesterday he offers up a few thoughts. I know shy bear well and he is no fool. Ignore these stark warnings at your peril should you be foolish enough to contemplate a spot of bottom fishing. Over to Shy Bear who opines:
1781 days ago
Ten miniutes before the close IQE (IQE) issued a shocking profits alert. The shares crashed 29% to 67p. Where will they go tomorrow? Excuse the triumphalism but I have been the biggest IQE bear going and, again, I say to my critics I was fucking well right and you are morons. All is explained in this bonus podcast. PS If any moaning Taffies bleat on about the content well go feck yourselves and get over it. Detailed financials are below:
1809 days ago
Bear analysts Boatman Capital made the schoolboy error of leaking part of its report to the Sunday Times. The deadwood press is part of the problem not the solution. Thus the Sunset Times scuttled off to Babcock (BAB) allowing the company to spin its side and the paper to run a piece slating the bear commentary. Such is the sordid state of financial journalism in Britain today. Anyhow for what it is worth the full report is now out and Babcock shares are starting to slide despite the company’s spinning c/o the deadwood press…
1842 days ago
No doubt Cynical Bear who has called Xeros Technology (XSG) superbly, as a sell, will be a smug fellow tomorrow as this Neil Woodford Dog announces its interim results. The share price action is telling you that folks already know the worst – shareholders have to bail it out again or it will be going down well before the Christmas decorations go up.
1960 days ago
I suspect that Ocado (OCDO) is even more overvalued after today's share price surge on the Kroger deal - it goes to show the dangers of shorting anything other than an outright fraud in the current climate. I look at the FOBT news - Nanny State gets more and more bossy every day. I look also at Mothercare (MTC), Foxtons (FOXT) and WH Ireland (WHI)
2010 days ago
In this bearcast I cover Sosandar (SOS) as Cynical Bear pretends to be Ben Turney on steroids and then turn my fire to all the bad news that UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) is sitting on and may release well after hours tomorrow. Then I look at Gloo Networks (GLOO) which is linked to BCA Marketplace (BCA). Gloo is at every level a total fecking scandal of greed and well everything. I should warn you that there is a bad language alert as Gloo is everything that is wrong about the AIM Casino. If you like bearcasts then remember that at UK Investor on April 21 one of many highlights will be a live bearcast with myself and Paul Scott. Make sure you book a free ticket HERE using the promotional code WINNIFRITH
2033 days ago
I have been a long term bear of Mothercare (MTC) on the simple basis that I do not see it as having a USP any more. It is a pointless dinosaur like Toys R' Us. The latter is already toast as of last week, the most recent trading statement from Mothercare indicates that it will go the same way.
2042 days ago
My friend and former colleague the aristocrat Dru Edmonstone was - as widely reported - sentenced to 21 months last week for a £60,000 benefits fraud, something the pathetic wretch did to fund his spread betting addiction. I discuss this and ask does a case like that of Dru justify the current clampdown on spreadbetters. I think such a clampdown would not have stopped Dru for addicts will always find a way. I discuss the odd goings on at Saffron Energy (SRON) which hardly inspire confideence. But my main focus is on the revelation HERE by Cynical Bear that Neil Woodford's flagship £7.1 billlion fund has taken on an overdraft, as an emergency measure to fund either redemptions or a growing collection of falling knives or both. If Woodford believes what he says about markets being overvalued - and I do - this is a sign that Britain's most conceited fund manager has completely lost the plot and may be not that far from the final collapse.
2076 days ago
If you listened to my bearcast of yesterday you will be in no doubt that I am aa big bear of Dignity (DTY) based on some simple maths. I take my hat off to a ShareProphets reader (Buy100ozSilver) for his maths in our comments section. His ( or her) post merits a wider audience.
2101 days ago
The most excellent Cynical Bear series on the massive issues that Neil "Nomates" Woodford faces and questions he must answer drew to a close yesterday HERE. Now I go further pushing those questions just a bit more, asdking new ones and outlining three scenarions that could see the Nomates empire and all his funds crumble very quickly indeed.
2204 days ago
Hugh Hendry was one of the funniest and articulate of fund managers and for a while his Eclectica funds delivered - as bears - spectacular returns. But Mr Market went against him and he has now closed up shop with his main fund worth a meagre $30.6 million. His final parting shot is a letter in which he has given up on fighting fake news. Over to the great man
2205 days ago
If you are listening to bearcast today you must have subscribed to Shareprophets so I thank you. I start with management who are cleary wronguns at Real Good Foods (RGD) which is a disgrace and at Papillion (PPHP) which is far worse - hat tip Cynical Bear HERE. I look at Interserve (IRV). Its shares are slumping on a profits alert but the real horrors are the lies in the August 9 results statement. Still valued at £124 million this could halve again look at debt! Then it is onto MySquar (MYSQ) a good bet for a zero, and finally a trio of oilies, Range Resources (RRL) - its au revoir not goodbye - Pantheon (PANR) dreary and overvalued by a reasonable amount and Sound Energy (SOU) where the valuation is a 100% rum and coke.
2308 days ago
Primary Bid's latest offer is its first non AIM placement. It boasts this as an achievement. But the company is Toople (TOOP) a proud member of Cynical Bear's Sub Standard XI. It is a dog and while I urge you all to join Primary Bid now HERE, I also urge you not to take up this offer.
2395 days ago
Cynical Bear says that I am just being far too kind to Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) with my 15 questions earlier today. Oddly I have yet to get an answer and nor will I as the company contemplates insolvency and other matters. But back to Mr Bear who says I should have asked a 16th question concerning another possible case of lying.
2422 days ago
It felt decidedly nippy last night as i wandered out for a light meal of calf in tomato sauce.I was struck by how the only language I heard was Greek, not Vlach, But also how the waiter spoke English. Fourty years ago more or less no-one here in Metsovo did. The other big change was the women.
2455 days ago
Yesterday I tried to explain the psychology of AIM fraud and fraudsters with reference to both African Potash (AFPO) and Cloudtag (CTAG). The great bear raider Waseem Shakoor also published a note explaining the seven steps of Cloudtag hype to facilitate is main business of share issuance. As you'd expect it is a cracking read. Over to the great Waseem
2509 days ago
Folks have focussed on how shares have zoomed since Donald Trump won but what about the bond market which saw its worst week for five years? What does that mean and will it continue? Yes it will. That is the warning of libertarian hero and perma bear Peter Schiff in his latest podcast.
2559 days ago
The presents for baby with no name continue to flood in. Last week saw a box arrive from the colleagues of the Mrs who had taken time off from filling the empty minds of impressionable millennials with left wing nonsense, to send us some gifts. There were flowers and chocolates for the Mrs but nothing for me as I am a patriarchal white man who exposed himself as an evil capitalist in a lecture given to the students of the Mrs. For the baby with no name there was a balloon and a small teddy.
2630 days ago
I had the weirdest of phone calls on Friday from a chap who insists that as a bear of Avanti Communications (AVN) I have got it wrong. I have spoken about his thesis to Lucian and having thought about it over lunch at the White Bear having run the gauntlet of Shipston's Bulgarian Big Issue seller, I am more sure than before that I am not wrong to remain bearish. I discuss the bull vs bear debate giving both sides of the argument and my conclusion.
2647 days ago
Recently listed Papillon Holdings (PPHP) is - as Cynical Bear pointed out here - clearly an overvalued rum and coke. But in its brief existence it has at least achieved something: helping the FD slash his tax bill. Oh what jolly good news for the crony capitalists, coke and hookers all round.
2647 days ago
Cynical Bear has already covered the stinking pus filled boil that is the bid for SyQic (SYQ) by its own CEO Jamal Hassim. Today it just got even smellier with the suspension of the shares.
2693 days ago
This s why so many of us on this website are so bearish at a macro level. David Scott of Andrews Gwynne articulates the bear economics case very clearly. Enjoy!
2731 days ago
Shares in Telecom Plus (TEP) are down 40p to 843p thanks to a downgrade of stance from buy to hold by Berenberg in the note below. The target price comes down from 1400p to 1000p so with upside at the start of the day of 14% surely that makes the shares cheap? Whatever. It seems an anodine note to me. I remain a bear as per Kevin Ashton's most awesome analysis HERE but you make up your own mind
2748 days ago
As a bear of Gulf Keystone (GKP) since 180p, I note that the shares are now just 11p after the publication of results which are at every level just a disaster - even today this is a storming sell. Where to start?
2755 days ago
I repeat my request re itunes - please go give Bearcast a 5* rating now. Then I refer to Amanda's piece earlier which is a compelling lesson in why its right to be a bear. Finally I explain why I am a mean bastard when dealing with Dr Harold Shipman, oops I meant Roger Lawson of ShareSoc.
2761 days ago
Receiving the baton from Cynical Bear we now continue the detailed series on the 100% rum and coke that is AIM Casino listed Craven House Capital (CRV). Now let's turn to Ceniako.
2763 days ago
Cynical Bear showed what a total joke, AIM listed Craven House Capital (CRV) was. Now here is another total killer. If Nomad Spark was not aware of our full coverage yesterday from CB (HERE) it is now. And it should resign at once, this company is simply not investment grade material. It is uninvestable crap. And that brings me to Pressfit- a company that I have lambasted before HERE.
2767 days ago
Oh dear. Baby Bear called this one to 0p at Gold & Bears HERE since when shares in Fastjet (FJET) have soared but now the chickens are coming home to roost with Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou warning that the company has misled investors and is facing a cash crunch.
Sir Stelios co-founded the aurline and with a 12.6% holding has called an EGM to oust CEO Ed Winter and his boardroom patsy, the airline's general counsel Krista Bates. Stelios says that the company has guided analysts to make forecasts about revenues and profits which are simple fantasies "a pipe-dream”.
2771 days ago
I end with a look at Bango (BGO) and why I would not be tempted. I start with a look at the markets and why I remain a bear avec mon ami le grenouille Thierry, despite the markets having a big up day. Most of the podcast is dedicated to taking apart the establishment managers and other lunatics who make up the 200 business-persons against Brexit. They are wrong and they do NOT speak for business.
2796 days ago
There are some folks out there, notably on the LSE Asylum, that think that an unlisted Daniel Stewart (DAN) which is almost out of cash is actually worth anything? Think again, morons.
The Great Northern Bear Waz Shakoor went short at 2.25p
2810 days ago
Back in September ailing AIM listed gold dog Condor (CNR) announced that it was undertaking a strategic review and was in an offer period. Today it says both processes are over. It was bollocks from the start, you can't polish a turd and this company - of which I have been a long term bear - is screwed. It is almost game over. It will be lights out in May.
2986 days ago
I am a long term and unapologetic bear of Globo (GBO) because the valuation just does not stack up. At 46p the market cap is £157 million. I cannot see free operating cashflow this year topping £10 million. I am not saying that this is a Norfolk just that the shares discount an awful lot of good news. They are overvalued. And…
3008 days ago
Happy Independence day to our American listeners. My prayers are that tomorrow Greece votes for freedom and votes Oxi! But will it? And what does that mean for the Euro and shares. I note Goldman Sachs claims that a Nai vote will see global equities rise by 10%. Hmmm, I think it misses the bear in the China shop. A few thoughts brought to you from Athens in today's podcast.
And fear not Champagne Charlie Gibson fans, I had not forgotten about you. Just a reminder of why the Edison analyst is a convicted felon HERE and as a bonus a reminder of how it is not only the poor he screws HERE - and a reminder of why I feel the urge to remind you all HERE
3012 days ago
Before I turn to Sefton and the wider issue of impairment (or not) on the AIM casino I am still bristling after being rubbed up the wrong way last night by an apologist for convicted felon Charlie Gibson and so until I get bored I wish to remind you of why Gibson is a felon (HERE). Then onto today's business. To give flip flop a break there are a few comments on Sefton's results and why I am still a bear. Then the issue of asset impairment and today's Kansas news vindicates a lot of what Dan Levi and I said about Jimmyliar Ellerton. But it raises the wider issue of inadequate impairment reviews on the AIM casino.
3064 days ago
Lucian Miers is now widely recognised as the most astute bear in Britain giving his enormous attention to detail and meticulous research. He puts the forensics into short selling. At the UK Investor Show as well as dominating the main stage bears session, Lucian recorded a short video interview. He can be followed on twitter @Lucianmiers and writes a weekly short letter on the Nifty Fifty website
3069 days ago
I have called this one correctly as a bear but fair dues to Rightster (RSTR) for still having the balls to turn up and present at UK Investor Show.
3084 days ago
I hope that you had a great day yesterday at Uk Investor Show. I certainly had fun although I should confess to having a bit of a sore head today. Before we go on, I take my hat off to Audioboom PLC for showing an incredibly sense of humour. We had a bit of a spat a few months ago. They thought I was a bad Bear. I thought they should apologise and send over a large bag of coke to say sorry. And so Audioboom pitched up at the show with a present for me as you can see below.
3114 days ago
As a long term bear from more than 100p down I note with grim satisfaction that following its latest admissions Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX) sees its shares at just 25p. I warned you. This is a tale of disgraceful boardroom antics as well as a cash crisis. I name the guilty men and have kind advice for both the new board and those investors who ignored me and listened to others and stayed on the shareholder list.
If you enjoy this sort of thing you will love UK Investor Show. With fewer than 200 of 2,000 seats left for April 18th book your place now HERE
3209 days ago
It's a first. A daily podcast not mentioning Quenron (QPP) at all. But for the record its shares dived by 7.2% to close at just 38.5p. Only 38.5p to go to fair value. Instead I discuss Ludorum, Mysale, Naibu, China Chaintek, Enables IT, Ultrasis, Touchstone Gold, Beacon Hill, LGO and why I remain an equities bear. However I reveal a very small AIM company in which we have just made a material (for us) investment.
3264 days ago
This came onto my desk yesterday and is a true horror story (unless you are a bear). Of all of the stinking Quenron subsidiary accounts to emerge so far this is arguably the one that stinks the most. But I still have plenty more to go through so I will not award the “stinkiest Quenron subsidiary accounts 2013” title just yet. I covered the POS that is Maine Finance Ltd in a preliminary way yesterday night in a 40 minute presentation showing clearly that Quindell was a fraud and worth 0p. The video of that talk and accompanying slides will go live within 36 hours and the 2 PLC FDs in the room were horrified by what they heard. But back to Maine Finance Limited.
3276 days ago
Everyone else seems to be doing a podcast so I thought I’d do one. But unlike that soppy git on ADVFN who keeps telling folk to buy everything I am a bear by nature and this will be the BearCast. A daily look at profits warnings, what is wrong with the economy and markets and shorting opportunities. I do not mince my words. In this inaugural edition I look at:
3282 days ago
This video is superb, In a humourous way it demonstrates why bears & short sellers provide such a valuable service to the stockmarket and it promises another major China fraud expose next week. I am almost tempted to head off to the Big Apple for the party...
3361 days ago
On twitter, on various bulletin boards and on the comments section here on ShareProphets and elsewhere we have come under sustained attack for 24 hours – let me set the record straight. And then I can get back to dealing with the snakes, rats and bats that infest my home for the summer in Greece.
3371 days ago
I read with interest a puff piece for blinkx (BLNX) in the Money section of The Sunday Times. For the avoidance of doubt, despite receiving two lawyers’ letters from this company, I have always been a bear and remain so after last week’s dire profits alert as you can see HERE. But what makes newspapers print this shit other, perhaps, than that the journalists might get a cushy job on “the dark side” if they such enough PR cock for long enough.
The ST headline is “Tech boss buys shares on the cheap” – the story is how Subhransu Mukherjee, the CEO of POS enterprise blinkx bought 250,000 shares in his company at 34p after last week’s dire profits warning. But why does the Sunset Times reckons that 34p is cheap? There is absolutely no analytical evidence for that assertion and I note that:
3429 days ago
Yesterday I posted a long defence of critical journalism, explaining why it is something that investors should welcome (though they rarely do). Today I move onto shorting which, I note, is one again something that some people want banned. They are wrong and this is why.
I accept that those who short are not providing what one might term a “useful” function in society. They are not creating jobs. Instinctively one might think of them as parasites. Their motive is pure greed. However shorting is risky. The most you can lose going long is 100% while your gains are in theory much greater. With shorting the reverse is true. And so it takes an odd sort of individual to sate his greed via shorting.
Having said all of that
3577 days ago
Hugh Hendry is a very smart fund manager indeed and is a bear. His returns, on that basis, over the past twelve months, have not been very good. He has managed his risk to minimising the losses but there is no disguising the fact that he has suffered for being a bear.
And thus he has just written to those who invest in his funds saying, in a rather long winded manner, “hands up.” Indeed Hendry warns that share prices could be about to go sharply higher. That is not because they are cheap. Hendry believes that on fundamentals equities are not attractively valued. I tend to agree.
3741 days ago
Roger Bade the mining analyst at Whitman Howard has called both metals prices and the mining sector very accurately. That is to say he has been bearish. And in his quarterly review he remains bearish. Those tempted to bottom fish might want to have a quick look at his report out today before getting too enthusiastic.
The report covers the outlook for most metals but also a few company specific comments as well as a note on the worsening political situation in Mozambique – watch out Kenmare Resources (KMR). Roger writes:
3792 days ago
They do not like it up ‘em. Shares in some of the darlings of the AIM Cesspit have taken a bit of a hit of late and some folks, the believers, believe that this is the result of a great conspiracy involving myself, Evil Knievil, Lucian Miers, Zak Mir, Red Evans and others. How about a quick look at the facts.
It is almost flattering to think that our wee band could wipe £300 million off the market value of Quindell (QPP). If only we were so powerful. As it happens Zak, myself, Evil and Lucian were all bearish on this company and we have been proved right. We are not always right but here we were correct. But the whole world is asking valid questions of Quindell now and that is why the shares have tanked. It is just that we called it correctly first. Is it a crime to be right and to ask valid questions?
3885 days ago
Calm down, we will turn to our own Avanti Communications (LSE:AVN) next week as it reports results. There is a legitimate bull vs Bear debate here too. But today’s Avanti is a TSX listed miner capitalised at $37 million. It is pure comedy.
3889 days ago
As per request the weekend video postcard is back. I found my camera, my tripod and I hope that this all works well enough – damn seem to have goofed on lighting again. I am out of practice. A simple few thoughts to (re) start with & no crowing about the rugby in case Olivia watches.
On the Agenda
1. Bull versus Bear the markets debate short term
2. Longer term – what inflation must mean, a more bearish tone.
3. The dynamics of new media
4. Steve Moore, ex senior writer at t1ps.com joins me working on the Nifty Fifty – the old t1ps team is now 100% reunited on our new website
5. Leslau vs Wray with me in the middle. More on UKInvestor Show where fewer than 500 seats now remain.
3906 days ago
think equities will go up, but I am bearish. If that sounds like the sort of TA nonsense that my pal Zak Mir spouts I apologise. Let me explain. Equities will go up because the bond bubble is only starting to burst. We will likely continue to see steady outflows from bonds into equities at an institutional level and that will push shares commensurately higher given the sheer mass of capital that is parked in bonds at present. To be more precise, it will push blue chips and mid caps higher as those are the sort of liquid stocks institutions will buy. I am not sure that it will do much for the riff-raff tail on AIM however!
Out of the frying pan into the fire. Are equities good value. The FTSE 100 I propose to ignore as it is heavily weighted towards stocks that are always on low PEs (Banks) and those which are British companies in name only – all their earnings are overseas. Instead I wish to draw your attention to the FTSE 250 Index which, at 12763.64 trades, now on a trailing price earnings ratio of, wait for it, 18.66 times. Towards the top end of its long term levels.
3997 days ago
The communications policy of AIM listed satellite group Avanti Communications (AVN) is a shambles. That does not assist those of us who still believe in this company. Right now my old friend Lucian Miers, the Bard of the Boleyn, and my (struck off) accountant Simon Cawkwell (aka Evil Knievil) are short of the stock. Having first tipped the shares yonks ago at 116p I think that, at 279.5p the shares are remarkably cheap. But the bear case is worth examining. As such here goes…