By June 7th after the California Democrat primary we will know for sure whether the Dems really want to hand the presidency to Donald Trump on a plate.
Right now, crooked Hillary - for that is how she is perceived - is about 100 delegates short of winning the Democrat nomination. However that is in good part to the fact that the unelected Super Delegates , party officials, right now break for her c525 to 30 ( with 157 undeclared). In terms of elected Delegates Hillary leads crackpot socialist mad Bernie Sanders 1,771 to 1,449.
But Sanders has been winning most of the recent primaries including West Virginia where he slaughtered crooked Hillary even though Clinton had beaten Obama in the same state. Democrat strategists should note that a third of those voting Sanders (so a fifth of registered Dems) in West Virginia say they would vote Trump in a contest against Clinton. That hands the state to the GOP.
As of today, the polls show that in the two biggest remaining primaries Hillary is ahead. In California (475 delegates) the most recent poll is three weeks stale but had Clinton 10 points ahead. In New Jersey with 107 delegates a pretty small poll has her 14 points ahead. But Sanders has shown he can put in late surges to claw back such leads. The demographics of those states are not favourable for him but he could do it.
If Hillary wins those two states and does reasonably well in the others voting in early June she will have a clear lead in the elected delegate count and - barring a bombshell - the super-delegates will nearly all back her on July 25.
If, however, mad Bernie starts to surge and picks up those two big states and the other smaller contests things get more interesting. It seems very unlikely that he will actually overtake crooked Hillary in terms of elected delegates. Were that to happen the Super Delegates would risk civil war were they not to switch and crown mad Bernie.
But what if Sanders does win California and New Jersey, closes the gap and is shown to be the candidate with momentum even though crooked Hillary has more elected delegates? That gets interesting if either or both of two other events come to pass. Firstly if crooked Hillary's personal polling continues to slide and the polls tell Dem party leaders that she cannot beat The Donald in the General but that Sanders might have a chance.
And secondly if there is another Clinton Scandal which really blows up. Being a teflon Clinton, crooked Hillary has so far survived: The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, Chinagate, Travelgate, the missing law firm records, Jeffrey Epstein, Kissinger, Marc Rich, insider dealing in pork bellies, Haiti, Clinton Foundation tax errors, Clinton Foundation conflicts of interest, “We were broke when we left the White House,” Goldman Sachs and the list goes on and on.
Before you say Lewinsky was Bill's problem remember that Hillary dismissed the woman as essentially a silly fantasist and tart. She was not. It is the way crooked Hillary has covered up for philandering Bill on a serial basis that is so shameful.
So what if something big blows up before the Democrats convene on July 25? The FBI is still grilling Clinton aides about those emails and may well want to have words with crooked Hillary too. One of the biggest donors to the Clinton Foundation is Steve Dattels of Uramin. Uramin could be the biggest mining scandal in history and arrests have already been made in France. Any bad news for Dattels would not enhance the perception of Clinton. With the Clinton family you just do not know what the next sordid mess will be.
If no scandal blows up by July 25, at least some super delegates might worry about what happens if one blows up after the convention but before the General Election in November. Say what you like about Sanders: the man is clearly mad as a nest of snakes but he is honest, he is clean and crooked Hillary is not perceived as being honest and clean even by many Democrats.Those of us on the right and centre just think she is a plain old crook.
If the Dems go ahead and pick Hillary, Trump will spend every day until the election banging on about all of those scandals, demanding to see the emails, making this a contest about who you trust. His own ratings are fairly poor but are improving fast and he has an (almost) united party behind him. Those of Clinton are heading faster South than Bill when he hears there is some skirt going begging back in Arkansas.
The Democrats have just over two weeks to ditch Hillary. Its down to registered voters in California and New Jersey to do the job. If they do not, Donald Trump's path to the White House becomes that bit less problematic. He may still lag in most polls but the gap is narrowing and he's now been ahead in one. And he could not have hoped for a weaker opponent than crooked Hillary.