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Only a superscandal can now stop Clinton lining up to get beaten by Trump in November

Tom Winnifrith
Thursday 9 June 2016

I am not sure that AFP calling the Democrat process as over before California voted helped Bernie Sanders much but the raw facts are that crooked Hillary beat him in the Primary. Hillary will not get past the 2,383 delegates needed to win a mandate at the Convention on elected delegates alone, she will need some super-delegates to cross the line. But she has nearly all the super delegates in her back pocket and she also has far more elected delegates than mad Bernie Sanders 2,203 to 1,828. So she will almost certainly be the nominee.

She has the most elected delegates and she can claim momentum having picked up New Jersey as well as California. And she has enough pledged super delegates to tie the whole thing up. However....

That Sanders scored c40% of the elected delegates with the Dems party machine doing its utmost to fix every Primary for crooked Hillary shows the Democrat party faithful do not love Clinton as much as she loves herself. As I noted in a piece some weeks ago, after West Virginia, as many as 20% of those who voted for Sanders in the primary as well as almost 10% of those who voted for crooked Hillary say they will back Trump in the General Election. That must be a concern for the Dems.

The one constant of Hillary's career when she faces the voters is that the more they see of her, the more they learn about her the less they like her. In NY Senate races or in her tilts at the White House her poll standings always slip as polling day beckons. We cane safely say that The Donald will spend every day until polling day reminding Americans of Clinton's numerous character flaws. Let's start with Whitewater move on through names long forgotten like Jennifer Flowers and get right up to date with those missing emails and those donations to the Clinton Foundation by a range of Godawful vote losers.

Democrats know in their heart of hearts that Clinton is a very weak candidate indeed. Were it to be Obama from 2008 (not the tired and disliked Obama of today) up against Trump in 2016 you'd be calling the contest already. The Donald would be toast. As it is the polls are neck and neck and Hillary has never in her career seen her poll ratings head anywhere other than south during a campaign.

And so maybe there will be one scandal too many before the Dems meet for what will be a stormy and divided convention on July 23. Could there be an email horror which forces part elders to persuade crooked Hillary that her cough is getting too bad and that she must quit on medical advice? I suspect it is too late for that now. Trump must hope that it is too late for that now.

Trump vs Clinton, with the latter saddled by the convention with a dose of Sanders insanity in the policy department, is a fascinating contest. If I had to bet, right now I'd call it for Trump. Clinton has just too much baggage. The more folks know about her the less they will like her. There are a whole generation of younger voters who are, right now, ignorant of Whitewater, Vince Foster and what crooked Hillary said about an intern who found herself giving blow jobs to her boss, yes Miss Lewinsky. Those under thirty five might not know all about those sordid details now, but Donald Trump will make sure they know everything and more by November.

Hillary is also the establishment choice, taking cash from Goldman and Monsanto. In 2016, folks want an insurgent. And finally there are growing signs that the global and US economy is slowing. If the economic trends are negative that is - historically - a killer for the incumbent party. So it will be tight but if you can get good odds, stick it on Trump to win in November.

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About Tom Winnifrith
Tom Winnifrith is the editor of When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
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