7 days ago

Video: Junk Debt Could Topple the Markets

Asset manager and author Michael Gayed says that there is overconfidence amongst investors that the economy will avoid a recession, despite increasing default risks. Additionally, most believe that stocks will continue to outperform, even though the charts are not indicative of a new bull market.


173 days ago

Video: The West Will Go the Way of Debt Implosion & Inflation

Asset manager Egon von Greyerz, of Matterhorn Asset Management AG kicks off with the debt ceiling in the US and explains how it is a farce, and a regular show every time it’s reached. It’s been raised over a hundred times and every time, it’s nothing but a political posturing. This is only going to lead to the debt being increased exponentially. In fact, since Reagan, the U.S. debt has doubled every eight years, and by 2025, it is projected to reach around $40 trillion.


285 days ago

Video: Gold the Excellent Risk Diversifier that is Widely Underheld

Money manager Bob Elliot analyses the current economic situation, the role of debt cycles, and the trade-offs between a fiat monetary system and a commodity-based system. He note that productivity is the main driver of growth over the long term, and that debt cycles have been used to make up for declining productivity. He explained the risks associated with governments borrowing to make up for productivity declines and noted that wage growth is maintaining nominal spending at a higher level.


306 days ago

Video: Matthew Piepenburg on The Great Reset – Weaponizing Our Debt-Soaked World

Matt Piepenburg is the sort of conspiracy theorist who will appeal to some of you. The author and asset manager discusses the Great Reset proposed by Klaus Schwab, and how it is a symptom of a broken and debt-soaked developed economy. Matt believes Schwab is an opportunist taking advantage of the COVID crisis, and his idea of ‘stakeholder capitalism’ is actually extreme centralization. This, Matt says, has never worked in history and has led to an addiction to debt, which has been weaponized by pharmaceutical companies, science, the media, political parties, and regulatory bodies.


420 days ago

Video: This Time, the Entire System is at Risk

If you want cheering up don’t watch this. Kevin Wadsworth has a background in assessing systemic risks. He believes there are serious risks of systemic failure, particularly in Europe. U.S. government debt is in a parabolic rise, and the maths is starting to no longer add up.  He warns that the cracks are forming in the foundations of the global central banking system.


468 days ago

Video: Crippling debt loads will crush economies

Too right. And individuals and corporates. Folks have no idea what is blowing in. Patrict Karim is a chartist so talks bollocks but on this one he is bang on the money.


681 days ago

Cineworld – trading statement ignores the elephant in the room

Cineworld (CINE) reckons that as the world emerges from the scamdemic its trading is improving helped by some really great movie releases. I am not quite so sure about that and today’s trading update misses out the most critical number investors need to see, the movement in the vast debts in which this company is drowning. That omission tells you all you need to know.


966 days ago

BP – trading and net debt position ahead of expectations, Income Buy

An “update on progress towards net debt target”-titled announcement from BP (BP.), which includes a claim of “earlier than anticipated delivery of disposal proceeds combined with very strong business performance during the first quarter”. This sounds good.


966 days ago

Video: Hyperinflation is here

Libertarian investor Rafi Farber is an economist of the Austrian school so clearly a sound chap. He outlines the treasury market operations and the massive increase in debt issuance. Much of this debt is now being redeployed under Janet Yellen and will require an enormous amount of additional issuance to finance the infrastructure spending under Biden. This debt will be raised through ten-year and two-year treasuries, and the Fed will have to monetize nearly all of it. And that will have only one result.


979 days ago

Video: The Fed Has Destroyed All Stores of Value as debt brings out the worst in humanity

Asset manager Michael Gayed warns the very fabric of society is at risk.


992 days ago

Video: Too Much Debt & No Going Back

Economist John Adams works for bullion dealer As Good As Gold Australia so he talks his own book. But his views would once have been mainstream Austrian. So much has changed. 


992 days ago

Wm Morrison – full-year results, still an Income Buy

Wm Morrison (MRW) has announced its results for its year ended 31st January 2021 and that it is confident it can continue momentum into the new year, expecting both profit growth and a significant reduction in net debt.


992 days ago

Video: The Trillion-Dollar Debt Problem

Wall Street veteran Peter Grandich believes that the loose monetary policy day of reckoning must come. He says, “We just past another couple trillion in money printing. This debt isn’t something that will go away; someone will pay the price and pay dearly. Servicing this debt is an issue, and the average American has no understanding of what is occurring.”


1059 days ago

Video: Inflation Starting to Rear its Ugly Head: buy bitcoin and gold shares

Asset manager Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates argues that the system has failed due to unsound money, and an immediate restructuring would be preferable. The alternative may be dragging the process out for the next twenty years. He explains the differences between today and 2008 and why we haven’t seen much increase in money velocity yet.


1107 days ago

Cineworld – the answer to drowning in debt is ….er more debt?

Cineworld (CINE) is drowning in more than $8 billion of net debt. Its net assets at the half year were just $1.2 billion and if you strip out intangibles that number falls to MINUS $4.3 billion. With Cinemas around the world either shuttered or likely to reopen to much smaller audiences what to do? Yup…take on more debt.


1140 days ago

Video: Global Debt Implosion Coming - buy Gold

Asset manager Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management AG based in Switzerland argues that today’s events are not new. History does repeat itself. Governments love to spend more than they receive in revenue, and no currency has ever survived. Deficits have been nearly non-stop since 1930, and often an unrelated trigger can cause the crisis.


1196 days ago

Video: Dollar Destruction Targeting $15,000 Gold and $750 Silver

Once again we stumble across someone who makes Nigel Somerville look sane and balanced. Trader Steve Penny claims that  “Commodities have never been so cheap relative to paper assets.” He argues that today is a generational wealth transfer opportunity. His macro thesis is that the national debt is mathematically impossible to repay. History has shown that politicians will always try to inflate away the debt.


1261 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the answer to too much debt cannot be even more debt

I start with two points of order on my next premium podcast (out later tonight) and on July 18 ( more details tomorrow). Then I look at Walcom (WALG) and lessons learned, Tomco (TOM) and lessons not being learned as who gives a flying wotsit about criminality on AIM, and at Cineworld (CINE) where there are four reasons to stay short.


1302 days ago

Video: Gold Miners are Orders of Magnitude Undervalued Relative to Gold

Fund manager Mark Yusko argues that we have the highest amount of leverage at all levels today, which is very similar to 1929. The 1929 crash was terrible, with markets falling 47%, then rallied back and then collapsed again. America today has an addiction problem, and that addiction is debt. Debt has to be defaulted on or inflated away, which is the path they choose in the 1930s.


1318 days ago

Video: Michael Pento: Prepare Now Before the Real Crash Begins

You think the marketr meltdown of the past six weeks has been bad. You ain’t seen nothing yet! that is the belief of analyst Michael Pento who is Michael is convinced that we are heading into “The Greater Depression” as the world is awash in 17 trillion dollars in negative-yielding debt. He says, “We are no longer living in reality; this is a fantasy created by massive monetization of debt from central banks.”


1461 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: When he is not republishing defamatory tweets about me, Roger Lawson makes partial sense on debt

I apologise for the lack of articles today, Gary Newman is on a book deadline, Chris Bailey is engaging in his dirty secret and I am olive harvesting. A few words on that and then I look at comments that Roger Lawson of ShareSoc makes on debt and also on Victoria (VCP). On this occasion he is only partially wrong, which must b e seen as a result.


1491 days ago

Kier debt on offer at 70%? What does that tell you about the shares?

According to the Sunday Telegraph, debt in, drowning in debt and liabilities Neil Woodfird favourite, Kier (KIE) is now being touted around for sale at 70 pence in the pound. So what does that tell shareholders? In short: panic!


1527 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: the folly of debt, Thomas Cook, Sirius, my local boozer & taxpayers cash

Capitalism has got itself into a mess by becoming addicted to debt. The answer is not more debt. That is lesson one of Thomas Cook (TCG). Those who blame the Government for not bailing it out, or Sirius (SXX) or my local boozer misunderstand how capitalism works. Folks have to lose money and jobs must be lost for all of us to prosper.


1553 days ago

Oooo Er MRS, the comedy shit show continues – shares in Management Resource Solutions suspended

Shares in this posterboy for the AIM Cesspit fell in morning trade. Pure coincidence natch! Nothing to see here officer, move along quickly please. At 2.20 PM the Oxymorons at AIM Regulation suspended trading in a company we have pointed out is drowning in debt and red flags and is almost certainly worthless on many occasions as you can see HERE. At 4.01 PM Management issued a statement. You cannot make this shit up. Only on the AIM Cesspit.


1671 days ago

Echo Energy – a dangerous mix warns City’s No 1 oil analyst

I am always very wary of companies with large amounts of debt and that has deterred me greatly from backing Echo Energy (ECHO). Its results were out today and the City’s No 1 oil analyst, Zac “the knife” Phillips of SP Angel has issued a stark warning. The great man opines:


1749 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: why I am a journalist not a thirsty share blogger & count-down for Telit

I start by issuing a correction. That is what journalists do and thirsty share bloggers don't when they goof. That refers to Footasylum (FOOT) though my generic point still stands. I also cover Telit (TCM), UK Oil & Gas (UKOG), Dev Clever (DEV), Plus500 (PLUS) and Patagonia Gold (PGD) and other loss making companies that, for some reason, have net debt.


1772 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: An AIM CEO guide to misleading about the need for a placing

I start with a detailed look at Neil Woodford's debt crisis at his Patient Capital Trust (WPCT) as exposed by Nigel earlier and explain what happens next. Then prompted by my Blue Jay (JAY) article I look, using various case stiudies, at how a CEO on AIM gives you a clear steer that he is not going to do a placing when he is going to do exactly that.


1906 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast, Debt is crack cocaine, Kier's red flags and Nike's PC folly

On today's Bearcast I look at debt, it is like crack but after the highs it always ends badly. I talk with reference to 2008 and the next correction. Then onto Kier (KIE), the spin and the red flags and finally to Nike and its self-inflicted PC own goal. 


2013 days ago

Drowning in Debt: Delinquencies Are Surging and It’s Only Getting Worse

The research note from Palisade analyst Adem Tumerkan came out last night and concerns the US economy. But if you think that it does not apply to our own debt fuelled economy in the UK you are kidding yourself. It is pretty scary stuff.


2043 days ago

Telit & that shocking Window Dressing of Debt - a reader assists

I asked the question yesterday whether the net debt figure claimed by Telit (TCM) as at 31 December was representative. If so why have so much expensive debt but also so much cash yielding bugger all. A reader helps - this is window dressing.


2254 days ago

Tom Winnifrith bonus Bearcast - what will you do when you get fired? And now that interest rates are already rising?

I note some of the comments made about the demise of Monarch Airlines and add my critique. What really struck me is how the 2000 staff will each get just one week's pay. How will they cope? I was today given some data on UK consumer debt and savings levels which is jaw dropping and terrifying. It gets worse. The interest rates we pay on our debts are already starting to rise. Again how will the consumer cope? And what does this all mean for your portfolios and your personal finances?   


2261 days ago

Michelle Hussein on Radio 4's flagship Today programme betrays the inner bias of her and her employer

On the Today programme this morning, overpaid presenter Michelle Hussein was at the Labour Party leaders rally, sorry I think it is called a party conference, in Brighton interviewing shadow minister John Ashcroft. It is not his platitudes that are of interest but one question she asked, from which I quote exactly:


2343 days ago

The BBC, the £51,000 Student Debt - it ( and everyone else) just does not get it

A report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies suggests that the average student is now leaving colleague with debts of £51,000 a figure seized on by the left and the liberal media as a sign that everything should be handed out for free. The right insisted that it showed how the system was working. Everybody lied.


2362 days ago

Drowning in debt Avanti Coms takes on more debt, is classed as non investment grade & exposed for misleading (again)

You are drowning in debt so what to do? In this crazy world you take on more debt! and so Avanti Communications (AVN) today announced that it had secured a new $100 million debt facility. Read carefully and you will see what an absolute nightmare this news is.


2366 days ago

Jeremy Corbyn's student loan bribe was less dishonest than the Tory alternative

The students flocked to Jeremy Corbyn after he promised to scrap tuition fees. It was a great bribe what was not to like? Vote Labour and save £9,000 a year. Fabbo. Of course it was based on money tree economics as were so many other Labour pledges and that is the inherent dishonesty at the heart of Labour. In the end they would run out of other people's money. But on this issue the Tories are even more dishonest.


2469 days ago

China Debt Timebomb or Red Herring, the Monkey explains

I reckon China is a debt time-bomb waiting to go off and burst the bubble. Andrew Monk of VSA Resources is a China bull but he addresses this issue in a fascinating note emailed to his clients this morning. Over to the Monkey...


2558 days ago

Petropavlovsk - very good news on debt: buy

An easing of debt risk for Petropavlovsk (POG) has moved a significant step closer – with it announced that the company has received approvals for the refinancing of its entire bank debt of $529.8 million from its lending banks, Sberbank and VTB.


2603 days ago

Global Debt Grows and Central Banks Are Buyers: funny money end game is in sight!

The latest missive from Sprott, the world's best known investor in precious metals, covers one of my core themes of 2016 - the fact that the world is drowning in debt. So who owns the debt and is it sustainable? Over to the experts... 


2604 days ago

Avanti deals with drowning in debt by taking on more debt - share price death still almost certain

There is a philosophical game called the fishing village. And today we saw this played out in reality by Avanti Communications (AVN) as it struggles to avoid insolvency.


2605 days ago

Nicola Sturgeon is living in a total dream world - the poisonous midget is delusional

Once again Nicola Sturgeon is insisting that if the evil right wing Tories take Britain out of the EU then she will do her utmost to get Scotland to leave the Union. Is her contempt for democracy more alarming than her delusional failure to grasp basic economics? It is hard to say.


2606 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Governments, PLCs and individuals are now drowning in debt - this has to end in disaster

Firstly I want you all to go at least £10 more into debt or I am going on strike - see HERE. Secondly I give data on Government, Corporate and individual debt. This should be the stuff of nightmares and must end in disaster. And I do mean disaster.


2658 days ago

Poisonous and delusional midget Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP is mad, innumerate and running a near bankrupt nation of scroungers

I remember my daughter remarking how wonderful the poisonous midget Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP was a couple of years ago, for there was a time when on both sides of the border this silly woman appeared to be the darling of the left, of the liberal media and the metropolitan bien pensants. Since my daughter lives in Islington, I expect midget worshipping was almost compulsory for her. But how the Sturgeon devotees must be recanting for as every day goes by the Scottish leader seems sillier and more disingeneous.


2682 days ago

The Labour battle of promising ever more insanity & unelectability: Corbyn vs Smith

Every day I receive at least one text message or email from either Comrade Corbyn or Comrade Smith as they each seek my support to become the man to take Labour over an electoral precipice. For as each day goes on they make promises that are more and more insane.


2701 days ago

BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg a shameful economic illiterate

BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg should surely have a grasp of the very basics of economics but the ghastly Scot is utterly economically illiterate. On the 10 O'Clock News, reviewing the achievements of Call Me Dave she claimed that he had paid off most not all of the deficit. A minute later she clarified that he had paid off two thirds of the deficit. This is so basic her gaffe is embarrassing.


2773 days ago

Gulf Keystone tells its shareholders it is screwed - don't these poltroons remember Afren?

Without explicitly using the words "we are 100% fucked and shareholders face either total or near wipeout" drowning in debt Gulf Keystone (GKP) has today pretty much fessed up to what a mess it is in. Not for the first time, the company is telling shareholders that the game is up. Natch they think they know better. They obviously don't remember the last days of Afren.


2848 days ago

Tom Winnifrith St Valentine Bearcast - debt is toxic & braced for a day with public sector shirkers (my family)

All my family bar step sister Flea work in the public sector and so today at a great family gathering I shall have to listen to folks on 38 hour weeks earning silly salaries bleat on about how stressed they all are and about the wicked Tories. Saints preserve me, it will be grim. Away from discussing the horror that awaits me I look at the toxic nature of debt, market crashes and investor denial.


2868 days ago

Video: Tom Winnifrith Presentation - the great stockmarket and real economy unwind is only starting

I gave this presentation in Clerkenwell last night. I am not predicting a crash but I am suggesting that the debt and QE bubble is only starting to unwind and will go much further


2898 days ago

Video: Debt is toxic - Gold & Bears main stage speaker Mark Littlewood of the IEA explains the mess we are in

Libertarian Mark Littlewood of the IEA is a Question Time Regular and came along to Gold & Bears to give a compelling presentation on the mess we are all in. Debt is toxic and the answer is not more tax but less.


2919 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 8 December - InternetQ, battle underway, LGO a RNS that says desperate

In today's podcast I update you all on the olive harvest - I managed four hours in the fields today despite still being in real pain. But not as much as LGO Energy (LGO) - its RNS today smells of desperation. For strategic review read "the game is up" and that also applies to Kolar Gold (KGLD). I comment on Avanti Communications (AVN) where the share price crumble is accelerating - remember debt is crack cocaine for management but for shareholders it is bad for your wealth. I comment on Silver Falcon (SILF) and tick off the grossly irresponsible, Justin the Clown of ADVFN and also on Defenx (DFX), rapidly becoming an IPO omnishambles. Then onto InternetQ (INTQ) where it is now "game on" but I end with Antrim Energy (AEY) where a concert party of Brokerman Dan, market abuser Chris OIl and ADVFN (AFN) head honcho Clem Chambers have just taken a 3% stake. Warning: this podcast contains bad language.


2949 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast 8th November - debt is crack cocaine and the poison is everywhere

As you can tell from the start of this podcast I am a tad pissed off with life. Anyhow I then move onto debt. State debt, corporate debt and personal debt. It is like crack cocaine. It is addictive and in the end it is lethal. I warn you what to look for in stocks to avoid this poison. I refer to Mark Littlewood's headline talk on this matter at Gold & Bears in three weeks time.


3230 days ago

Your Vote matters says Bristol City Council – Really? Prove it – I register anyway

As part of the dirty tricks campaign waged by the Labour party, the Mrs left me off the electoral register thereby denying me the opportunity to vote. I am sure that Ed Miliband is profoundly grateful to his one loyal supporter in this household for this act of electoral sabotage.

As luck would have it, the Mrs is away, and a letter from Bristol City Council has landed on the doormat. It stresses that “Your vote matters, make sure you’re in.”  Keen to ensure that the sanctimonius eco-Nazis at Bristol City Council do not target me for disobeying them I have done as they urged and registered online to vote and applied for a postal vote at the same time. I have now filed the letter and envelope in the correct recycling bin.

But can Bristol prove that my vote matters? As far as I can see none of the main parties, and I include UKIP and the Greens to humour any fruitcakes or eco-smellies who are reading, are prepared to be honest with the electorate about the deficit and debt.  None are prepared to fess up that with an ageing population we just have to extend the retirement and pension age by a decade and a half, to slash welfare spending and to accept that we cannot any more afford an NHS giving free healthcare on demand.

But no politician is honest about this. They all tinker


3433 days ago

Avanti Communications – The “Trading Update” and Expectations – Sell

Avanti Communications (AVN) is now officially my Victor Meldrew stock: “I just do not believe it!” Last week it served up a “contract win” announcement that was utterly incredible. Now for this, drowning in debt, needs to raise equity Company we turn to the mystery of the full year trading statement.

Back in 2013 the statement covering the 12 months to 30th June came out on 12th July and generally well run companies follow a fairly similar year in year out routine. But this is not a well-run company it is Avanti. So there was no trading statement.


3599 days ago

Ed Balls – the Maths do not stack up

Ed Balls has, this weekend, said that if Labour wins the Election then he will eliminate the budget deficit by 2020. From a man who played a leading role in ramping up the deficit to record levels when last in power this is an interesting pledge. Apparently Gary Glitter has said that he will be abolshing child abuse in Britain within five years as well.


3626 days ago

Man who once drive cars very fast has serious ski accident – stop the world?

Naturally I hope that Michael Schumacher, the seven times F1 world champion pulls through. His ski accident sounds awful and I hope the chap recovers fully and feel sorry for his family. But…

Lots of folks are critically ill. Thousands are being butchered in conflicts across the globe, in terror attacks or are dying from starvation or diseases which are utterly treatable. The world economy is drowning in debt. 

Yet the lead story on ITN News was again the ex-racing driver. A reporter and crew has been sent to Grenoble (I expect the BBC has sent dozens of staff) and we get hour by hour commentary saying nothing much new.

Is a rich man who once drove very fast cars but has lived as a playboy retiree for several years, having a potentially fatal accident really that important?


3727 days ago

The Daily Mail: Economic Illiterates or Tory Spinners or Both

I never cease to be amazed at the appalling coverage of basic economics by the national press but today’s shock exclusive from the Daily Mail really plumbs new depths. The headline reads: Government borrowing falls by £3.6billion as the recovery powers on. The sub heads read: Deficit cut from £14.2billion to £13.3billion in the space of a year and Borrowing falls from £50.4billion to £46.8billion. It concludes from this that George Osborne’s austerity policies are working. 

Ok. Back in the real world. The statistic the Mail uses is that in the six months to August Government Borrowing was a mere £46.8 billion, down £3.6 billion from the prior six months. But that is not is not TOTAL borrowing just ADDITIONAL borrowing. Total borrowi9ngs are still increasing at almost £100 billion a year. The budget deficit in August was marginally down on a year ago but was still a disgraceful £13.3 billion.

So the correct headline should be: Government borrowing still increasing rapidly. The sub heads should read 


3777 days ago

The Detroit Temple – Why the West will drown in Government Debt as Politicians ALL Lie

The article below was published by Eric Sprott, the guru of precious metals fund management. It applies to the US but the same issues face the UK. It is devastating.

Read this and appreciate how the political classes of the West are to a man (or woman) lying to you. They tinker, they pontificate but they are racking up liabilities which they know cannot be met. The unfunded future liabilities of the British, French, US Governments mean that they are all technically bust. 

We face hard choices. We should be slashing entitlements and Government spending now. No politician will tell you this but the way we live is just not sustainable. They lie to you to get your votes. By the time we go bust they will be out of office. They do not care. Read this. Appreciate the real facts. 

Conservatives in the US and UK say “Detroit is just Democratic/liberal incompetence”. That is a lie. Politicians of all parties are just as culpable. They are all lying to you.
Over to Sprott:


3785 days ago

Hibu shares suspended and Bulletin Board Morons wiped out

Finally shares in Hibu (HIBU) have been suspended ( at 0.175p). The company is seeking a partial debt to equity solution which will see lenders get ALL of the equity in a new company which will retain all the operating assets plus some debt. The existing company is thus left with nothing and is worthless. Its shares have been suspended and investors told it is a wipeout. And some Bulletin Board Morons regard this as a surprise?


3803 days ago

Tom’s weekly video postcard #39 – Back to Greece Edition

I filmed this in Monemvasia on Saturday. I seem to have a few thoughts on the plight of Greece every day as I encounter some other example of lunacy. I will try to note them in article and or video format as I go along. But I kick off with my analysis of why Greece really cannot recover. The long term killer will be demographics. The short term killers are debt, the bloated state and the all pervasive corruption. Still you’ve got to love the place.

My weekly financial video postcard discusses the Silverdell (SID) scandal and the farce that is AIM non regulation and can be viewed here.


3810 days ago

George Osborne & the Spending Review – everyone is lying

And so this week George Osborne laid out his plans for how the Government will spend money it does not have over the next few years. The reactions were sadly predictable and the truth is, my friends, that they are all lying.

On the right there was praise for canny George who so cleverly snookered New Labour with populist pledges about tackling welfare scroungers and who is clearly a safe pair of hands to act as custodian of the nation’s finances. Middle England and the Bond markets are meant to be reassured.

On the left the BBC, its sister paper The Guardian and other associated loons continued the post 2010 narrative of wicked Tory cuts, back to the 1930s, blah, blah, blah.

Both sides are lying although it seems that the BBC/Guardian agenda has won as most folks do actually think that Government spending is being cut. It is not.


3927 days ago

What will be the Black Swan that blows up the world economy by 2015? China, US or Europe?

The answer to the 1998 financial crisis was to slash borrowing costs across the globe so that we all over-leverages and misallocated our capital. On that occasion it was junk dotcom investments and property. In 2008 another crises and the same solution. The fact is that the world has been misallocating capital for decades, led by Governments freed from prudence by the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971.

With each crisis that crops up, the solution is simply to print more money and to get folks to take on even more debt. You owe too much – heck borrow some more. And so capital is misallocated and bubbles grow ever bigger. But at some stage the party ends. It will. The current set up is simply unsustainable.

And so what will be the black swan event that causes the mother of all reality checks? If offer four runners and riders. Inevitably if one occurs it will trigger the others. And it will probably be a fifth black swan that no-one has thought much about that starts the party. But here goes.

1. The Chinese property bubble. I have written before on numerous occassions about just how mammoth this is and how it really can knock the Chinese (and thus the worlds) economy for six. The answer of the authorities to the slowdown in the PRC in 2012 was to pump more hot air into this bubble. It has to be my top black swan bet. Read this piece out yesterday on Zero Hedge if you doubt me.

My major work from September 2012 on China, the misallocation, fraud an inevitably of a crash is HERE

2. A market refusal to buy US T Bonds in an auction. The US Government is three years away from having a balance sheet like that of Greece just before the crisis. An economically illiterate President and, to show balance, a spineless Republican party in Congress just cannot get to grips with what is happening. The US today is like sick Britain at the end of WW1. But it will take the US far less time than we took to see its currency tank. At some stage folks will refuse to stump up cash for a debt that yields sod all and is clearly unrepayable and unsupportable.

3. Sovereign default across Europe accompanied by widespread Civil unrest. The only folks buying Spanish debt right now are the Spanish state pension funds. Oooh lucky Spanish state pensioners. But those funds are tapped out. Spain is bust and its economy is enjoying an EU austerity driven spanking session which Max Mosley could only dream of. It is not just Spain. Italy, Greece, Portugal are in the same mess. The Irish economy and society has been beaten to a pulp in the name of fiscal responsibility and yet could still collapse. France is heading the wrong way fast as is the UK. The collapse of the Euro as we know it has to be an odds on bet it is a matter of how it occurs.

4. The Arab spring moving to Saudi Arabia. A regime with no legitimacy is kleptocratic, autocratic and barbaric. It bribes the people with a fraction of the nation’s wealth and panders to radical Islam in a most unhealthy sort of way but it is unloved. One day it will fall. Revolution in the world’s largest oil producer could perhaps trigger unforeseen events elsewhere.

Hey, maybe we can all carry on spending beyond our means, leveraging up as individuals and as States for a good while yet. We have been kicking this can down the road for decades so maybe we can carry on for another few decades. Or maybe not. One day something will happen and we will find our noses against the wall at the end of the Cul-de-sac. That day may be sooner than we think.

For more thoughts from Tom Winnifrith follow him on twitter @tomwinnifrith


3929 days ago

Dominic Frisbey's Debt Bomb Video again - ref Obama Economics

Given Obama’s determination to bankrupt America ref his recent cuts package it is time to remind you of the great Dominic Frisbey Debt Bomb Video. The same message applies to the UK befire we laugh too much.

Dominic is not only a comedian he is also an expert on gold which is why he is one of the keynote speakers at UKInvestor Show on April 13th. He is bound to be entertaining. More details on that event and on the 24 other speakers HERE.


3941 days ago

Welfare in crisis: Jobless mother of 11 Heather Frost says free council eco mansion may not be good enough for her

Every day another story emerges which show how the welfare state is just out of control. Heather Frost has 11 kids and no job. She currently lives in two council houses knocked into one. But her local council has managed to do a deal with a developer to sell it land cheaply so that it will build a new six bedroom eco mansion with a 355 square foot kitchen just for Heather. But the ungrateful bitch has today said “It’s being built especially for me. If I go there and I say to them I don’t like it or it’s too small, then they will just have to build me a bigger one, won’t they.

Why the hell should they? This 36 year old woman opted to breed like a rabbit,


3984 days ago

“Fiscal Cliff” put in a much better perspective

Thanks to a reader for this which explains why “averting the Fiscal Cliff” has not actually happened. The finances of the US Government are in terms of GDP/Debt ratios pretty much where Greece was just a few years ago. And the trend is not good…

Lesson # 1:

U.S. Tax Revenue: £2,170,000,000,000
Federal Budget: £3,820,000,000,000
New Debt: £1,650,000,000,000
National Debt: £14,271,000,000,000
Recent Budget cuts: £38,500,000,000

Let’s now remove 8 zeros and pretend it’s a household budget:
Annual family income: £21,700
Money the family spent: £38,200
New debt on the credit card:£16,500
Outstanding balance on the credit card: £142,710
Total budget cuts so far: £385

Got it? Obama has not. But I reckon most folks can see that the sums do not add up.

There was a lesson #2 attached involving sewerage but I think the point is well enough made already.

Another analogy is with a 20 a day smoker. The budget cuts agreed to date equate to him cutting out one cigarette….a year.


3988 days ago

Do I believe the 2013 Equity Bull Case?

Equities have got off to a flying start to 2013 but do I believe that the surge will continue? Sort of Yes and sort on No. It is complicated. I certainly do not assume that buying any old stock and expecting it to surge will be a way to make money this year. It never is and 2013 will be tough in many ways.

Part of the early January surge is a relief rally thanks to the US not falling off the Fiscal Cliff. Well not yet anyway. Tough decisions with regard to spending have not been taken, merely postponed. The fundamental issue of America’s deficit and its ever growing debt has not been addressed; Ron Paul puts it thus:

Under the sequestration plan, government spending will increase by 1.6 trillion over the next eight years. Congress calls this a cut because without sequestration spending will increase by 1.7 trillion over the same time frame. Either way it is an increase in spending.

Yet even these minuscule cuts in the “projected rate of spending” were too much for Washington politicians to bear. The last minute “deal” was the worst of both worlds: higher taxes on nearly all Americans now and a promise to revisit these modest reductions in spending growth two months down the road. We were here before, when in 2011 Republicans demanded these automatic modest decreases in government spending down the road in exchange for a massive increase in the debt ceiling. As the time drew closer, both parties clamored to avoid even these modest moves. Make no mistake: the spending addiction is a bipartisan problem.


4058 days ago

HIbu (formerly Yell): Sell with a target price of 0p

AIM listed HIBU (HIBU) today made it explicitly clear that its shares were worthless. The shares are down by a mere 26% at 0.37p but even that values this company at £8.81 million. If you own the shares sell them now. If you are able to borrow stock and go short do so as this is free money.


4128 days ago

The Economic Debt Driven Crisis started 41 years ago yesterday

It was 41 years ago yesterday that President Nixon scrapped the Bretton Woods system. Until then you could exchange 35 US dollars for an ounce of gold. The US could only print as many dollars as it had gold reserves and all other currencies were linked to the US dollar, so they too were restricted in what they could print by how much gold they sat on. As a result we enjoyed fiscally responsible Governments that did not spend more than they could afford.

Nixon scrapped the link because the US Government needed to print dollars to finance the folly that was the Vietnam War. Since he did that the purchasing power of the US dollar has fallen by 82%. The purchasing power of other currencies where the Governments have been even more profligate (er…the UK) has fallen by more.


4146 days ago

Holiday in Albania

For some reason I keep thinking of the Dead Kennedys’ classic “Holiday in Cambodia” as I prepare for a trip across the straights of Corfu early next week. If you cannot remember the number/never heard the tune, it will not appeal to all, but you can listen below.

If you cannot make out the lyrics it is this verse to which I refer (although the two that follow on the nature of work are pretty good)

“ It’s time to taste what you most fear
Right guard will not help you here
Brace yourself, my dear

It’s a holiday in Cambodia
It’s tough, kid, but its life
It’s a holiday in Cambodia
Don’t forget to pack a wife”

Of course Albania has moved on from the days of good old Enver Hoxha when machine gun posts on the border were there to keep people in, rather than out.


4147 days ago

Debt Bomb – Great Video – well done Dominic Frisby

I occasionally exchange tweets with Dominic Frisby – mining commentator and comedian. So, as he will read this, anyone there is no need for me to tweet him to say that his latest video is wonderful. I am not sure why the birds have to end up partially clad but since I am unlikely to be hired as the dress code advisor to the Saudi Arabian women’s Olympic team (the token two) there are no great objections on that score. The lyrics are superb. And the point is, of course, bang on the – soon to be utterly denuded – fiat money. Congratulations Dominic. Enjoy.