Personal and undiluted views

76 days ago

Joe Levy you are not alone – conversation in the Metsovo hotel with new Israeli friends

I have written before about Olaf’s godfather Joe. In his mother’s stomach, he left Corfu just in time in 1941 when the Italians were in charge, heading to Egypt and then to Israel before washing up in England. Those Jews who did not get out in time were shipped out by the Germans en masse, when the Hun took over from the Italians, first to Piraeus then, by train, to Auschwitz.


161 days ago

Centamin – remains a recovery buy

Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) announced results for the 2020 calendar year emphasising “record revenue of US$829 million… generated significant free cash flow, of US$142 million, a 91% increase, making it possible to propose and pay dividends attributable to 2020 of US$104 million”  but also ‘impacted guidance’. A recovery buy?


324 days ago

Centamin – near-term production outlook disappointment, but the long-term promise remains...

Gold miner in Egypt Centamin (CEY) has updated emphasising “the third quarter marked another solid performance”, yet the shares have dropped back to 131.3p. The reason is a reduction in guidance for 2021 but the market has over-reacted…


1525 days ago

Channel 4 News - Fake News from Israel

As the flagship fake news liberal elitist broadcaster in London it is no surprise that Channel 4 hates the State of Israel with a passion. And to that end the channel that just loves its fake news had a field day yesterday as three Palestinians opened fire on security guards at the sacred Islamic site, the old Temple. The terrorists were shot and killed but not before they had killed two Israeli guards.


1866 days ago

Feminist Caption Contest: Women's Beach Volleyball Egypt vs Germany, C15 vs 2016

As a feminist I, naturally, support the right of a woman to wear what she wants not what some moronic theocrat dictates she wears. This contest from Rio sees the 15th Century playing 2016 or do you see the game in a suitable manner. Caption contest anyone? Please submit you entries in the comments section by midnight Friday 12 August.


2650 days ago

Tony Blair wants us to intervene in Iraq again – WE MUST put the War Criminal on Trial to solve our problems

We should never have invaded Iraq. As a nation we cannot afford foreign escapades. There was no moral urgency to invade and the consequences have been predictably calamitous – we have suffer almighty blowback, a concept I discuss in my weekend video HERE.

Tony Blair prompted that invasion. He is endeavouring to suppress papers which will, show that it was almost certainly illegal to invade.

Now the war criminal (someone who starts an illegal war is a war criminal) wants us to invade to stop the ISIS Islamofascists from running riot. I am in no doubt that ISIS are truly awful people. Some of their actions are also war crimes.

But Blair must accept that he has created ISIS. Saddam Hussein


2746 days ago

The Great Uncles in Greek Graves – far more questions than answers

My video postcard this weekend covered my plans to go to Greece after the UK Investor Show to track down the graves of my two great Uncles: Francis and David Cochrane. I think we have now firmly established that Francis is buried in Egypt (contrary to a family myth) where he died on December 21st 1942 from wounds received fighting the Germans. For him the great mystery is the odd circumstances of his marriage.

He married a Diana Norman in Paddington in the late summer of 1938. Apparently the witness at the registry office was the taxi driver. However despite living in Chelsea, two miles from my grandparents and fifteen miles from his parents, he did not tell anyone of his marriage until the summer of 1942 (my Grandmother’s diary confirms this) when, before leaving for Egypt he visited relatives with his bride of four years.

This seems very odd behaviour. Almost as odd is that this is the last time Diana Norman is seen – she had absolutely no contact thereafter with my family. I can find no record of her death so can only assume that she is either still alive (she would now be 99), died abroad or re-married and has died under another name. Investigations continue. My father and I are on the case.

As for poor David, he is certainly buried in Greece. I have today received two items from my father. The first is a letter to the Times from Mr Caclamanos of the Greek Legation in London. It protests in the strongest terms about the actions of Sir George Young, grandfather of the current Leader of the House and of my step-mother, who had taken up the case of David, insisting that he had been killed by brigands or by shepherds who, according to Sir George, routinely killed anyone who tried to stop their dogs barking.

The Greek states that “I understand that the contents of the letter and other declarations of Sir George of this subject, sent out in Press telegrams, have caused an outburst of protests in Greece, and they are considered an unjust and unfair comment of a sad, fortuitous event, which could not in any way reflect upon the reputation of a country justly claiming to be safe for tourists and travellers as any other civilised country.”

To his eternal credit, Sir George worked tirelessly on this case because his wife was my Great Grandmother’s sister. My father is indeed married to his second cousin.  The second item to arrive from Shipston is a rather sad letter from the Foreign Office to Sir George noting that, after a year missing, the remains of the body of poor David had been found in thick bushes with his passport, a cheque and his English money and gold watch. No brigands, no robbery, he simply fell down a ravine. 

This letter confirms that following the wishes of David’s father, “regarding the burial locally of the remains have been communicated to his Majesty’s Minister.” It seems that no-one travelled out to Greece for the funeral but the grave is almost certainly in Delphi or nearby. And thus it is to Delphi that I will be heading in April.



2944 days ago

Friday Caption Contest on a Monday - Sefton's Ellerton going to prison issue

Apologies for the delay. Well there is a lot happening right now. Following the highly successful interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt and Libya it seems as if we are about to intervene in Syria as well. Will we ever learn?  Away from the folly of our leaders my mind this week centred on victory in my battle with AIM POS Sefton Resources and its liar and crook chairman Jim Ellerton. Bully boy lawyers Pinsent Masons has yet to throw in the towel officially (heck why not rack up some more fees while you can?) but it is only a matter of time.

If you missed the victory at Pinsents Video please watch and pass the link onto everyone you know. I gather the bully boys are hating all this bad PR. Given its role in the Sefton dirty tricks campaign against me Pinsents deserves all the shit it gets. So please watch the video and pass on the link to EVERYONE YOU KNOW - it is  HERE
This week’s picture  is below. Please post your captions in the comments box below.


For what it is worth my entry is


2992 days ago

Centamin Q2 numbers good but the bulls remain in dreamland

Centamin (CEY), the gold miner operating in the delightful peaceful paradise on earth that is Egypt has today announced Q2 production numbers. As a bear of this stock since last summer when Egypt headed down the Islamofascist route it would be churlish of me not to admit that the numbers are not excellent. They are superb. But with respect that is not the point.

Incidentally I called Centamin 100% correctly on the bear tack just as I had on the bull tack (tipped at 8p sold at 139p) but got heaps of abuse from Bulletin Board Morons for going bearish. Fear not, those who abused me, I am not looking for an apology. You have suffered enough with the financial losses you incurred as you dismissed me as a fool. I shall have another poolside beer and drink to your health. “Cheers…here’s to the Bulletin Board morons”


3001 days ago

Friday Caption Contest on a Sunday - Syria Madness Edition

I was tempted to lead on the news that a Tory MP who I had never heard of was given a standing ovation and embraced warmly at a meeting of his local association this week. For saying that the EU was a joke? That he believed in low taxes, reform of the welfare state or that he took a tough line on law and order? Be serious this is Call Me Dave's new look Tory Party and so it could only be one thing...Daniel Kawczynski outed himself as the UK's first openly bisexual MP. we give a damn who you shag but it would be kind of pleasing if you could cut the deficit/stand up to the EU, etc.

Now if an MP were to out himself as the UK's first MP not to fiddle his expenses that really would be something. Anyhow it has made Dave Cameron happy. Whatever. But instead I turn to red blooded heterosexual MP William Hague, aka the foreign secretary who would like to be a real macho man ( a great song by those other neo-Cons the YMCA) and get us all involved in the war in Syria. Wow after all the success we have had with our interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Egypt (in flames this weekend) lets make it five straight wins and send lots of weapons (paid for by the UK Money Tree) off to the Islamofascist rebels in Syria.

Please post your captions to this picture in the comments section below by 9 AM on Friday.

For what it is worth my entry is:


3030 days ago

Arming the Islamofascists in Syria – are we mad?

I see that the EU is lifting its embargo on arms sales to Syria at the insistence of Britain and France. Why UK trade policy should be dictated by the Evil Empire escapes me but that is not the issue here – the concern is that the UK is set to give weapons to the FSA ( the coalition fighting President Assad). This is sheer insanity.

For the past few months the Western powers have tried to show that Assad is a truly evil man committing war crimes on a daily basis. It is surely only a matter of Time before Tony Blair pops up to suggest that he has Weapons of Mass Destruction capable of hitting Britain in 45 minutes. The agenda all along has been to supply arms to the rebels.

Of course evidence on the ground shows that both sides in Syria are committing atrocities on a daily basis. William Hague may feel able to play God and decide that one side is better than the other but I cannot. Both seem utterly loathsome.
One thing that is clear


3046 days ago

Centamin Excellent Results but....

Fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) has announced its results from its Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt for the quarter ended 31 March 2013. Total gold production for the quarter was a record 87,016 oz and sales totalled 86,054oz. The gold price received was $1,604/oz, giving revenues of $138.2 million. Cash operating costs were $556/oz and this resulted in a profit before tax of $71.89 million before a loss of $3.087M on the sale of financial assets.  There is no doubt that these results were superb. Yes you read that correctly – they were brilliant. But.

There are a few less than minor issues to flag up.


3052 days ago

Centamin Egypt: In De Nile without a paddle

Oh Dear. Oh Dear. Oh Dear. It looks as if the Islamofascists in Egypt are moving a step closer to seizing Centamin’s (CEY) flagship Sukari gold mine, but the company (and its shareholders) are in denial. A statement today reveals the grim tidings.


3095 days ago

Centamin Calendar 2012 results good but broker downgrades anyway

Centamin (CEY) has this week announced its calendar 2012 results. There is no doubt that the numbers were impressive. I write that as a persistent bear of the stock. But credit where credit is due – Josef El Raghy and his team did well in difficult conditions. However…

Before looking forwards, I look back. Centamin produced 262,828 oz of gold – an increase on 2011 despite the operational difficulties experience in the autumn as a direct result of the changing political landscape in Egypt. That production generated revenue of $426.1 million and an EBITDA of $233.3 million, resulting in a profit after tax of $232.15 million. However, the company did have an exceptional charge of $33.1 million which reduced the headline profit to $199.038 million. However even that number surpassed the $193.99 million recorded in 2011. It was another record year for Centamin.


3102 days ago

Centamin – Will it still own its mine in six months? – Good news or bad?

FTSE 250 listed gold miner Centamin has issued another statement updating shareholders on its legal issues in the Islamofascist Republic of Egypt where is flagship asset, the world class Sukarai gold mine is located. I have never doubted the quality of this asset, merely pointed out since the regime change in Egypt last summer that the political risks are not discounted. That remains the case at 56p today.

The statement issued yesterday reads:


3108 days ago

Centamin output guidance published - sell

Egypt based FTSE 250 listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) yesterday gave guidance for 2013 output – that it does so 2 weeks ahead of the publication of 2012 results is a bit odd. Is it a case of getting the bad news out ahead of the next bad news...the results.

The company states that it expects to produce 320,000 ounces of gold this calendar year at a cash cost ( assuming no fuel subsidies) of $700. That would be a 22% increase on 2012 output which is not surprising given that a range of political difficulties scarred 2012 numbers. Of course Centamin assumes that these difficulties (or new ones) will not reoccur. Given the newsflow from the increasingly Islamofascist republic of Egypt, I am not so sure of that. The company reaffirms that it expects output to increase to 450,000-500,000 oz from 2015 onwards. Inshallah.


3140 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell says Buy Centamin

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with and and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a tip from TradingResearch Point on Centamin. For what it is worth I disagree with his conclusion!

Centamin Egypt (CEY) has been in the spotlight for six months because of the well publicised political difficulties in Egypt where it operates the Sukari gold mine. These problems have seen the shares fall sharply to 61p today which values the company at £669 million. Ignoring this backdrop of poitical strife and excitment – the underlying fact is that Sukari is a world class, cash generative and growing operation. That is not discounted in the share price and with a sense that stability is returning to Egypt the shares are a buy.


3145 days ago

Guest Post: Sam Bottell - Petroceltic: a buying opportunity?

I spent two years working along Sam Bottell as he worked with and and he is a good, honest and clever chap. Now that he is starting his career freelance writing as well as an organiser of the UKInvestor Show I have no hesitation in helping him along via this blog as a guest contributor. As such I bring to your attention a share sell tip from TradingResearch Point on Ireland based Petroceltic

2013 was meant to be the year when Petroceltic moved on from corporate activity (the purchase of Melrose) to exploration success and so it is rather disappointing that it has started the year with a duster in Egypt. With sentiment towards the oil mid caps and juniors already somewhat dampened by drill bit failure elsewhere (notably with a range of Falklands stocks HERE) it is not surprising that this news has not been received well. Whilst serving as a reminder that exploration is inherently risky this does not alter the strong buy case for this Ireland based firm.


3173 days ago

Centamin Publishes Record Q4 Results but that still leaves it as a sell

Centamin (CEY), the London and Canada listed gold miner operating in Egypt, has announced record quarterly gold production of 85,543 ounces for the period closing December 31st 2012 – taking full year production to 262,958 ounces, a 30% increase on 2011 and above guidance of 250,000 ounces. The shares have responded by currently trading just over 5.5p higher at 49.75p, capitalising the company at just under £550 million. The company emphasises the numbers as “particularly pleasing given the challenges faced during the year” but the announcement also makes clear that challenges remain. The following details my current view…


3179 days ago

Centamin: Is it exporting gold or not?

On 20th December fully listed gold miner Centamin (CEY) announced that “following the recently-announced export of gold and resumption of fuel supply, operations have now resumed at Sukari.” The market read this as meaning that output and cashflow generation was now back on track. The shares have thus rallied to 39.3p. But this morning, top broker Fox Davies has published a research report stating “We also understand that gold exports have again been suspended.” Well have they? A RNS statement from Centamin is called for pretty urgently. This is a critical matter but the answer does not matter but the episode reminds us of why the shares are a sell.

The Fox Davies note is pretty damning and I reprint a critical section:


3217 days ago

Centamin – Market Update Does Not sound Good say two brokers and me

Fully listed Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) has today provided a market update on its various woes and at two levels it does not sound good at all. And it is not just me saying this, it seems that some brokers agree. To hoots of Bulletin Board derision I warned folks repeatedly ( when the shares were much higher than today’s 60.2p) that Centamin was a sell. That was not because I dislike the company or have a grudge. This was a stock that I tipped on at 8p but told readers to sell at 134p. It is because life in Egypt has changed irrevocably and for the worse since its revolution. Those who have fallen in love with the stock seem to forget that.


3220 days ago

Gaza: Peace in Our Time. Bullshit (I fear) with normal vile BBC spin

Radio Four’s Today programme reported on Thursday morning that the “ceasefire in Gaza had largely held overnight.” Well what does it actually mean by that? On the Israeli side not a single shot was fired. Back in the Islamofascist state of Gaza the first rocket heading towards Israel went off exactly 34 minutes AFTER the breakout of peace in our time. By the time Radio 4 broadcast this canard, 15 rockets had landed on Israel. So by “largely held” what the biased BBC actually means is that the Israelis kept to their word but the Gazans fired only 15 rockets whereas they normally average about double that overnight.”

Just imagine how the BBC would have reported it had Hamas not fired any rockets but the Israelis had dropped a couple of bombs. Would it have been “largely held” or a rant about how the fucking Jews were war mongering bastards whose word could not be trusted and had no desire for peace? Next stop for Bibi Netanyahu a war crimes tribunal in the Hague. What do you think?


3221 days ago

Centamin: Broker Fox Davies Warns shares worth 44p if fuel subsidy discussions fail

I think that my views on fully listed Egyptian Gold miner Centamin (CEY) are well known. For me the great risk is a political one – I trust the Islamofascist Muslim Brotherhood rulers of Egypt less than I’d trust an 1970s Radio 1 DJ to do a spot of babysitting. But Fox Davies has another concern: the fuel subsidy.


3227 days ago

Centamin – Quarterlies Good Enough But...

I have never said that Egypt-focused, London and Canada listed, gold miner Centamin (CEY) was a bad company. After all I tipped the shares at 8p on and got my readers to sell at 134p – not a bad result. My problem is that it operates in Egypt. That is the country next to Gaza happily assisting Hamas as the heat gets turned up in the region.

Centamin announced results for the third quarter of 2012 on Wednesday. Despite reporting record quarterly earnings, the share price has continued to decline since.


3238 days ago

Centamin – Another day and a Better RNS – Still Far More attractive Bets in Gold

And now for the latest news from Centamin (CEY) vs the Islamofascist Peoples Court in Cairo – the fully listed gold miner has issued another statement (its third) on the ruling of last Tuesday which appeared to take away its key flagship asset, the Sukari gold mine. This is the most convincing statement yet from Centamin and the shares have rallied to 74p. That is another opportunity to sell and switch into a safer play. And here is why.


3242 days ago

Centamin Resumes Trading – Sell

Shares in fully listed gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) have resumed trading this morning and are currently 74p. One can make a legitimate case saying that its assets are worth 150p per share. But then there is the reason they were suspended on Tuesday and that is why I would sell as I explain briefly below.


3242 days ago

Centamin: Another Day - Another pathetic RNS. Just not convincing at all

And so it came to pass on the third day that Centamin (LSE:CEY) issued another RNS insisting that the new Islamofascist regime in Egypt had not after all stolen its Sukhari gold mine. The shares remain suspended because the truth is that no-one has the foggiest idea what is going on. Not even Centamin by the sound of it. If these shares return from suspension what, I wonder, are they worth?


3244 days ago

Centamin: The company issues pathetic response to asset theft – not convincing: sell if you can

Fully listed Centamin (CEY) has now formally responded to the fact that the Islamofascist regime in Egypt has stolen its main asset. Its response is not in any way convincing. It is quite clear that an Egyptian Court has revoked the license yet the company seems to suggest otherwise. On the basis that no-one seems to know what is going on the shares remain suspended. If, at any stage, you can sell I would. Here, in Centamin’s own words is why.


3244 days ago

Centamin: You were warned - game over?

I first tipped gold miner Centamin Egypt at 8p yonks ago on and banked mammoth gains at 134p a few years ago. Thereafter I was repeatedly urged to get back in. I resisted. My most recent refusal game with the shares at 66.5p on 29th July. This morning the shares have been suspended at 67.5p as what I predicted (action by Egypt’s new Islamofascist regime) has come to pass. It gives me no great pleasure to write this but “I told you so.” So what next?


3321 days ago

4 Potential Mid East Wars by Christmas, what should the West and you do?

Things are hotting up in the Middle East. There are three possible scenarios for military conflict by Christmas plus the usual wild card of a revolution. There are those who wish genocide against Israel and the useful idiots in the West who would allow this. The oil price could rocket. It is all rather grim. Where to begin?

The best bet for military action is a concerted series of air strikes by Israel on Iran. The FT reported yesterday that the Israelis wanted to start before November in order to wipe out the threat of Iran getting a nuclear bomb. The West should not be intervening in this one. That is to say we should not assist Israel but equally we should not, as we are doing now, hold her back. The nutters who run Iran would make Tel Aviv their prime target if they had a nuke (they have said as much) and so Israel has every right to bomb these wicked Islamofascists back into the stone age. Secretly all the other Arab leaders would be delighted by such an outcome although publicly they will, of course, condemn the “wicked Jews”. This has to be an Evens or better bet.

Second up is Syria


3333 days ago

Syria – Both Sides are Vile – who wants to intervene now?

The Daily Mail yesterday carried graphic and, I am convinced genuine, images of events in Syria showing men held semi naked quivering with fear as they are led off and machine gunned to death in an act which can only be described as mass murder. The crowd cheers. These men were soldiers of the Assad regime captured by rebel fighters. I am sure that the Assad regime acts equally as badly. But that is not really the point.

Assorted loons who learn nothing from history have been suggesting for a while that the West should intervene in Syria. The frightful Mrs Clinton has offered up her suggestions on how we can help while David Owen (Dr Death, remember him?) and John McCain actually think we should engage militarily. Heaven help us. There are two reasons why we should just stay out of this and let natural events take their course.

The first is that both sides appear to be equally loathsome.