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Trump ahead by just 3% in Texas screams CBS another rigged poll - but the shy Trumpster effect shows up clearly

Tom Winnifrith Tuesday 25 October 2016

 

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The liberal media elitists are today creaming themselves over a CBS poll showing Trump just 3% ahead in Texas - Britain's Daily Mail says the historically solidly red State is in play. Natch the poll is utterly rigged but it also gives a fascinating insight into how big is the "shy Trumpster" vote. Indeed for the first time we can start to quanitify it and the implications are massive.

Lets start with the rig. In 2012 Romney won 57.17% of the vote and President Hopey Change won 41.38%. The most recent data on registration (2014) shows the GOP at 41% to 37% so excluding Independents that grosses up to 52.56% GOP to 47.53% Dem. Yet the poll sample was 51.44% GOP to 48.56% Dem (I exclude Independents). In other words we have yet another poll oversampling Dems and undersampling Republicans. Adjust for that and a 46% to 43% lead for Trump suddenly moves out from 3% to closer to 5%.

But it gets better in that the poll also asks punters "how are your friends going to vote?" Do you remember that comedy sketch from Not The Nine O'Clock News where there is an expert on homosexuality facing an audience that asks questions? A chap says "I, er um I have a friend who thinks he might er be gay". Clearlty he was talking about himself but just could not fess up in public. On the "how are your friends going to vote? " question, the split is "Trump 41%, Clinton 35%, they are evenly split 10%, don't know/won't say 14%. I think those 14% will split at least marginally for Trump as it contains shy Trumpsters and as Trump is ahead in this poll but lets assume that the 14% splits evenly as do the evens.

We then get a result of 53% Trump 47% Clinton. That is a six point lead as opposed to 3% in the rigged poll. If I am right about the 14% "won't says" splitting marginally for Trump then the lead heads towards 7%.

The bottom line for me from this rigged poll is that it reinforces my belief that the "shy Trumpster" effect is worth anything up to 4 and a bit percentage points. This is a thesis and we shall only see how it holds up on polling day. But if it is valid then key states like Iowa and Ohia are in the bag for the Donald and North Carolina has him in a clear lead while in Pennsylvania and Florida it would be a shy Trumpster adjusted neck and neck.

Meanwhile the pussygate smears are getting less and less credible. The most recent from a porno actress plugging a new product launch is so risible that it makes one question some of the earlier more credible stories. A few more really weak pussygate claims and the Trump counter that this is just another DNC smear will get almost plausible

But the Hillary email leaks and Veritas allaegations are hurting more and more. The charges are new, credible and very serious. They only need to create a swing of a point or so and suddenly, if Im right about shy Trumpsters, Florida, Main, Pennsylvania all vote for Trump and it really is game on..

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About Tom Winnifrith
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Tom Winnifrith is the editor of TomWinnifrith.com. When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
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