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Even the Rigged Polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead tell you that Trump is winning now

Tom Winnifrith
Monday 31 October 2016

We have a new ABC/Washington Post poll out today and it shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 1%. That will no doubt be reported as a triumph for the Crooked One by the liberal media elites. In fact it spells disaster for Clinton. You need to adjust that 1% in three ways to see how clearly Trump is now in fact well ahead. Crack open the JD, my fellow deplorables, we are on a roll.

First up is the simple question of who is sampled. The poll states that it sampled 1,165 likely voters who were registered 37-27-30 %, Democrats-Republicans-independents. There are more registered Dems in America than Republicans but the actual split is nowhere like the sampling in this poll.

As of October 2014, Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, when party "leaners" were included; those figures changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican. A January 2016 Gallup poll showed just 29% identifying as Dems, 26% Republicans and 42% Independents.

In other words this poll clearly over-samples Dems versus Republicans and Independents in a material way. Adjust for that and Hillary's 1 point leads turns into a clear lead of at least 3 points for the Donald, potentially 5.

Secondly the poll was conducted October 26-29. In other words half of those polled were polled before the FBI bombshell. Underneath the headline numners were are told that using just the last two nights’ results 47% of her supporters say they’re very enthusiastic about her, compared with 51% across the previous six nights. So some of Hillary's supporters are starting to get cold feat and that should add another fraction of a percentage point to the Trump lead.

Finally these polls do not reflect "shy Trumpsters". I believe that there is compelling evidence, as I show HERE, that they arre worth another 3-4 points for Trump.
And that all adds up to a potential Trump lead of anything up to high single digits.

With more Wikileaks fun promised by the heroic Julian Assange we deplorables have every reason to be in good heart.

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About Tom Winnifrith
Tom Winnifrith is the editor of When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
[email protected]
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