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I called it for Trump & Macron - here is my GE2017 party by party forecast - big Tory win

Tom Winnifrith Wednesday 7 June 2017

 

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Everyone, including me, called the French election right, but I was one of very few who predicted a Trump win in the US. For my hat-trick I am now having a stab at forecasts for the UK General Election on a party by party basis. But first just a few general observations before I go onto what will be a night of triumph for the Tories.

1. We are back to the 1970s in that - outside Scotland - we now have two party politics. In England and Wales almost 90% of those voting will back he Tories or Labour. Folks know that the other parties are irrelevant.

2. London is different to the rest of Britain. Multicultural, largely very asset rich, remoaning it is keener on brand Corbyn than the rest of us. Labour may pile up votes in safe seats in the Capital but in real England the values of the Corbynistas go down like a bag of cold sick and the shift will be away from Labour.

3. The Tories ran an awful campaign but at the end of last week it hit is nadir in terms of support as minds focused on the sheer horror of the alternative. Events at London Bridge have not helped Labour. Corbyn and his close allies have been the friends of all sorts of awful terrorists for 35 years. Folks know that.

4. There are imponderables. The biggest is how many young people who can't remember the IRA and believe in Money Trees have registered to vote or will bother to cast a ballot?

So how will the parties fare? I exclude Northern Ireland because although Ulster is God's chosen land I have never understood its desire to elect folks who from all parties are as mad as a nest of snakes. So let's just leave NI as snakes 18 unchanged. The speaker, the loathsome John Bercow, will also hold his seat so make that 19 snakes.

UKIP will win no seats. In fact I'd be surprised if it keeps its deposit in more than a handful of places. The party is well and truly over and its leader Paul Nuttall can go back to playing for Tranmere Rovers or whatever he claims to be good at. In many seats it is not standing so its 4-5% in the polls is illusory. It will be lucky to get 2% of the national vote. The question is where do its 4 million votes from 2015 go to. Oddly many of those votes came FROM Labour but they will not be going back. My instinct is that most fruitcakes from 2015 will vote Tory, with a large chunk not voting and only a small number voting UKIP or Labour.

The SNP is now on 56 seats but will, I predict lose 12. The Scottish Nazis have not run the Greece of the North well and their obsession with independence post the referendum defeat is not helping - most polls now show a clear and increasing majority against independence. There will be some tactical voting by Unionist/ SNP haters and the extent of that is the great imponderable thus I would expect The Tories to gain 9 to go to 10, Labour to gain 1 to go to 2 and the Lib Dems to gain 2 to go to three.

That is almost the end of the good news for the Lib Dems. They should pick up two seats in South West London on the remoaning riviera and that will see the fraudsters friend Vince Cable back at Halitosis Hall. But they may not hold the Richmond by-election gain ( where the fuzz are now investigating their god-awful MP) and they will lose a couple of other seats (Southport and North Norfolk) so net net they will end up on 10 (up from 9). Do not expect Cable, the man who has predicted 17 of the last 4 recessions to hang around for long. He will stab hapless Tim Farron in the back and be crowned as the Lib Dem's new leader by the Autumn.

Plaid Cymru have not had a good election but folks in parts of Wales are strange so they cottage burners may hold their three MPs.

The Greens will hold their one seat in Brighton. The only possible gain is Bristol West which has in living memory been Con, Lab and Lib Dem. The seat is prosperous and remoaning. But the Labour MP is a very likeable woman and I think she will hold as the opposition fragments.

Labour is on 229 seats right now. There will be the odd rogue result which sees a Labour gain. But outside London the UKIP votes going to the Tories and traditional lower middle and working class votes going Blue (as well as Indian and Jewish voters) will see Labour do very badly indeed. It is perfectly possible that the overall Labour vote may - thanks to Scotland and London - actually go up but seats like where I live where Labour has a 4,000 majority may well go blue. The Bookies have the Tories odds on with Labour evens in Bristol East. On that basis my prediction is Labour 201

And that leaves the Tories winning 372 seats and thus having a majority of 92. They do not deserve to win so handsomely but they will certainly have a comfortable majority so it is full steam ahead on Brexit.

Please note the imponderables at the top of this article. The polls suggest that it will be closer than I forecasts. But the fact that both Mrs May and Comrade Corbyn have spent the past few days campaigning in what should be safe Labour territory tells you what the internal polling of the major parties is telling them.

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About Tom Winnifrith
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Tom Winnifrith is the editor of TomWinnifrith.com. When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
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