271 days ago
Where my DNA comes from Sinn Fein and the IRA are seen as one and the same so he is known in this household as my pal in the IRA. Certainly he is proud of its actions – he celebrates the killing of British soldiers, something his forebears took part in. But, given the timing of the arrival of my family in his home county of Donegal (the 1650s), we know not to go chat about such matters. He knows that I wear an Ulster rugby shirt and we have much else to discuss anyway. Yesterday, he called to tease me about problems with Brexit, kicking off with Dutch customs officials seizing the ham sandwiches of British lorry drivers.
300 days ago
Fear not I will eat my hat on video just give me a day or two. In today’s podcast I look at my macro assumptions for 2021 and a few stocks that come out of them as obviuous longs or shorts, Natch Red Rock Resources (RRR) of hat eating infamy is in the former category big time. No sniggering at the back. And talking of videos, there is another coming on New Year’s Day which will enrage our in house Euro loon Jonathan Price.
408 days ago
Sorry to the in-house Euro loon Jonathan Price who reckons that my interest in the US election is excessive but two new polls yesterday cast further light on the races in Pennsylvania and Florida which
as I noted yesterday are two of the three states that will decide the election. I discuss this and then Justin Urquhart Stewart on gold where he gets his numbers so wrong that I am more bullish than I was as I think this tells you something of wider import. Finally onto my good mate the Sith Lord Zak Mir, a chap called Carl Linton who is a plumber and heating engineer, and the current mood of market craziness.
888 days ago
As I am often abroad at election time I organise a permanent postal vote. Thus from Bristol in the South west region my ballot paper arrives and has been filled in ( and posted0 as you can see below. It is a treble pleasure.
1243 days ago
I start with the myth which Julian Richer is trying to perpetuate that you can somehow stop large scale, 100% legal, tax avoidance by folks like Sir Phil Green or indeed the legal stuff we all engage in by using dividends in private companies, etc. Then I ask if Italy might break the Euro or even the EU who are behaving - again - with shocking contempt for the little people. It should. Will it? Finally...98% of bearcast listeners have NOT yet sponsored myself and Brokerman Dan for our 30 mile Woodlarks walk. If you enjoy bearcast I am sure you can spare a tenner so donate HERE - to those who have donated I say thank you.
1481 days ago
I start with a look at the weekend's events in what could be, and should be, the Catalan Republic. It shows our political leaders, but especially those in the EU, in the worst possible light. If the Catalans do go it alone it has massive implications for the Euro which I discuss. Then it is on to PCG Entertainment (PCGE) where I declare an interest but try to be objective in a detailed analysis. There is a similar biopsy but it could soon be an autopsy on Starcom (STAR). I also cover Falanx (FLX) "the flea jumping" - a stock we own - and comment on Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO). I have remembered what I forgot at the end and will cover it tomorrow.
1493 days ago
Radio 4's flagship Today programme was discussing Brexit in light of the recent comments by Boris and the forthcoming speech by the worst Tory Prime Minister in living memory, if not ever, Mrs May. It had already given time to the senile old remoaner Vince Cable who wants us to keep voting until we vote the "right" way, hence the word Democrat in his party's name. And so next up...from our Nottingham Studio it was fat old Euro-bore Ken Clarke.
1497 days ago
Lord (Andrew) Adonis is one of those folks who wants we dumb commoners to keep voting on Brexit until we realise the error of our ways and vote the same way as clever people like him and the man who enobled him, the war criminal Tony Blair. So what is the worst thing about Brexit? His Lordship tweets to enlighten us...
1510 days ago
I am no particular admirer of my Oxford contemporary, the pompous MP for somewhere in Somerset, Jacob Rees Mogg. But my fellow residents of the Hellenic Republic should at once establish a committee to erect statues of the pin stripe suited buffoon in every town square in our great land. The heroes of 1821 should stand shoulder to shoulder with the man who has arrived at a solution to our economic misery and enslavement by the fucking Germans, sorry I meant the EU, and banksters. Jacob Rees Mogg is the new Byron.
1632 days ago
Dreary remoaners such as Pizza Hardman Darren Atwater and the rest of the liberal media elite keep on saying that Brexit has cased the pound to tank against the Euro. After another taunt from Darren yesterday I bring you the chart below, just to help him move out of the post fact era.
1705 days ago
Yikes! I thought I was safe with Greek TV from the likes of Lineker & Graham Norton but then up popped commie media tart Paul Mason lecturing the poor bubbles on why the EU and the Euro was the only way forward. Mason is an asset millionaire. My neighbours here in Greece are starving, unemployed, emigrating and angry. Mason just has no idea and worse still he talks rot. Greece does have a choice and I urge it to take it.
1754 days ago
Once again I am sitting here in Shipston with a live audience of one, my father. So we have his take on George Michael - mine is HERE. My views on Syria are referred to in the podcast and the article I mention is HERE. Then I go onto my 8 macro calls for 2017 covering Europe and the Euro, interest rates, corporate earnings visibility, fraud & bankruptcies, house prices, shares, gold and oil.
1842 days ago
We all have opinions about what might happen and no-one can prove that your opinion on the future is wrong.The sun will rise tomorrow is an opinion. I suspect few would disagree with it but since it is in the future not the past it is not a fact. Facts (a word derived from the Latin for it has happened) are a different matter. But not it seems if you are a nutty Euro loon who cannot accept the Brexit vote. Meet Petra Mason who has a degree in behavioural ecology and is into pottery and tweeting gibberish.
Petra served up this tweet.
1844 days ago
Yes I am beginning to miss George Osborne. No I lie, he really was useless. But so too is Hammond. I comment on him believing the boy who cried Euro Wolf (Nissan) and handing over taxpayers cash as a result but also on the way that he is set to allow the deficit to balloon again - this man is a danger to your wealth. At a company level I look at Inspirit (INSP), Cloudtag (CTAG), SKIL Ports and Logistics (SPL), Quantum Pharma (QP) and my pals the fraudsters as African Potash (AFPO) - Lord Peter Hain when will you blink and quit?
1845 days ago
The BBC and the rest of the liberal media was creaming itself last week reporting as breaking news for several days on the trot claims by Nissan that it may cease investing in its Sunderland plant because of Brexit. That will teach those thick racists in the grim North for voting for Brexit smirked the southern liberal elite. The great unwashed have only themselves to blame. They should have listened to the London lefty millionaires from the media and academia who really knew what was best for the "ordinary people" of Britain. What the BBC and Guardian failed to report is that Nissan has form. It is the boy who cried Euro Wolf.
1964 days ago
To be fair to David Cameron he does not need to open his mouth to tell an actual lie in order to mislead the British people about Brexit. Sometimes his silence is equally deceptive.
It appears that the EU has overspent its budget by circa £20 billion and that member states will be asked - once again - for bonus contributions to fill the black hole. But in order to assist Dodgy Dave who is trying to tell the British people that we are "better off in" it has been agreed that the invoices will not be announced or sent until after June 23rd. How convenient.
No doubt lyin' Dave will now pipe up
1983 days ago
I had rather forgotten about Michael Heseltine, the man who stabbed Lady Thatcher in the back, but apparently the old egomaniac is still alive and today weighed into the Brexit debate saying that Boris Johnson was a reckless man and that we should all vote to stay in.
Before anyone takes the old fool too seriously on the EU you might ask
1989 days ago
And so I tracked down a shop in Kalamata which sells canisters of Herpotex, cans that emit a smell snakes find noxious and which will keep them away for three months. In theory at least. The guide says I only need two to be placed 10 yards from two diagonally opposed corners of the hovel. Fecking hell, we are talking snakes here. I asked for four, one for each corner. The lady said "they are 30 euros each."
I thought that the price had gone up quite a bit since last year. Perhaps the fantastic "snake harvest" referred to by Nicho the communist means that demand is outstripping supply and that Herpotex snake repellent is the one item in Greece seeing real inflation? But this is snakes so I found 120
2189 days ago
In today's podcast I look at the Portugal Coup and what it means for the EU and the Euro. Then onto profits warnings and where I see equities going and finally a note on Mark Carney, UK base rates and UK house prices.
2293 days ago
#Thisisacoup is trending on twitter. Greece is now ruled by the EU. Democracy means nothing. The package agreed by Alex Ephilates Tsipras will destroy hope and add to misery in Greece. There is no debt relief. The problems of Greece, for the country, its people, my friends and neighbours, are not solved but the Euro is saved (for now). For Greece, my father and I are agreed (for once), we shed a tear. The Euro may have rallied but Greece is not fixed. Just fucked. Comment and analysis on what happens next.
2295 days ago
I arrived at Athens airport at 7 PM on the dot and sober as a judge with plenty of time for a 9 PM flight to Gatwick, given that I had already checked in and only have hand luggage. Er..oh. My flight is delayed by 3 hours and 20 minutes.
That means that I am likely to arrive at Gatwick at c2.30-3PM GMT and will then have 150 minutes to kill before the first bus to Bristol departs. A nightmare journey awaits.
I head to the special needs easyjet desk and say that I have a special need, I am thick. What does this all mean? An officious lady says shows me a pack of vouchers which I guess get me a sandwich and a drink and offers me the chance to get behind 140 other sweaty Brits and escaping Greeks to queue to get the voucher of which she has a stack of in her hand. Put another way "fuck off and line up with all the other peasants, I am not even going to use the word sorry since you are only a customer and I view you with complete contempt."
I say ta but no ta and head off to get a frozen yoghurt and to wander to the terribly expensive Sofitel opposite the airport. It has a great internet connection.
As it happens my Euro to ouzo conversion programme of the past eight days has not gone according to plan and I appear to have around 1200 Euro burning a hole in my pocket. I now have four and a half hours to kill. I have no choice. The PC is plugged in. I am writing and a large ouzo with ice has just arrived. This could be a long night and I fear that my only company will be my best friend ouzo. I have eight days of relative sobriety to make amends for.
2295 days ago
A brief podcast as I prepare to spend a morning on the beach with the Mrs. Then it is off to Athens. She thinks she is seeing a la dee da play. I am heading there for riot porn as the Greece Grexit crisis hots up again. Is Tsipras planning to betray the Hellenic Republic? Will he get away with it? Will Greece be booted out of the Euro anyway by the Krauts? Then a few words on the farce at Sefton as Jimmyliar Ellerton tries to make it go bankrupt via legal means. And then to the con Worthington.
And fear not Champagne Charlie Gibson fans, I had not forgotten about you. Just a reminder of why the Edison analyst is a convicted felon HERE and as a bonus a reminder of how it is not only the poor he screws HERE - and a reminder of why I feel the urge to remind you all HERE
2298 days ago
I cannot imagine that the neo-commie Alex Tsipras thought that his biggest fan in the EU was UKIP leader Nigel Farage and poor Tsipras looked a little uncomfortable as Nigel lavished him with praise in the European parliament today. Tsipras does not wish to leave the Euro but Greece needs him to "lead it out with pride" as Farage rightly said.
2298 days ago
I note the attack on me by my colleague Euro loon HERE. Like the heroic ex finance minister of the Hellenic Republic Yanis Varoufakis I regard such an attack from a supporter of the EU and Euro as a “badge of honour.” The zealots who believe in the Euro concoct facts to support their religion. They show no humanity in the face of undeserved misery. The Euro and EU is a dream for crony failed politicians, big business, useless parasitic bureaucrats and banksters. It is a combination of crony capitalism and socialism which screws ordinary taxpayers and benefits the elite. My analysis and solutions are pure capitalism – my critic (a bankster) is a crony capitalist. I care about the poor. My critic is heartless.
2300 days ago
Greece voted overwhelmingly Oxi yet this morning finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has quit claiming that the banksters had made it clear that they did not wish to negotiate with him personally. Is this the start of the Syriza sell-out?
I see that Eurosceptics in Britain like Farage continue to see the Oxi vote as a vote against the Euro. It is not. Most Greeks and most Oxi voters including Prime Minister Alex Tsipras want to stay in the Euro and think that the referendum merely strengthens their mandate and their hand.
2300 days ago
As I wander up to the most excellent Anthrapology café one last time for a leave Athens on a boat tonight to continue my odyssey, I stroll past three of four banks and they are open. Well sort of.
Pensioners are allowed in but to withdraw only 100 Euro. You can make a deposit if you wish but no-one is that daft. For those not yet in retirement it is the ATMs again and if anything the queues are longer than they were on Saturday and Sunday.
And why not? At the very worst you take out 60 Euro, stuff it under the mattress and in a few weeks convert it into nice new Drachmas and make a quick turn. At best you avoid losing 60 Euro when the bank goes bust or if the State confiscates your wealth via a bank bail-in. And so the ATM lines grow longer and will stay that way all day until the machines, or Greece, just runs out of cash, whichever is sooner
2301 days ago
I am horrified to see today’s Mail on Sunday spout complete lies about Greece. It saddens me that this paper pays folks like Liz Jones to write sensationalist crap.
We were both (apparently) at the same mass rally in Syntagma Square on Friday. I encountered nothing but calm and peace and a duck among the 50,000 crowd. I did not feel threatened for a second. Liz Jones reports Police firing stun grenades and seems to have got into a bit of a state. There might be the odd hothead everywhere but the Oxi rally was call, determined and dignified.
Liz reports that the Oxi camp want to turn their backs on the Euro and EU. I wish. The Oxi camp want to say in the Euro but believe they can do that without austerity and with debt relief. I do not think Liz has been listening to anyone here.
Liz and her colleagues report that shops are running out of food. Sorry but, overwhelmingly, that is not true. That PM Alex Tspiras
2302 days ago
It is Saturday morning and if anything the ATM queues are longer than they were yesterday. Between the apartment where I am staying and the café where I am writing from there are four ATMs. I reckon that the line outside each is now 25 long as folks look to take another 60 Euro out of their account before it is too late.
Lining up in the Athens heat is not fun so why not make it a family day out?
2359 days ago
I do not have a scooby about forex trading I just feel happy to see the Euro go down against Sterling and look forward to a day when the drachma sinks even faster. SwissQuote was the main sponsor of UK Investor Show 2015 and held a session to explain what is happening in forex to the attendees. Watch and learn.
2392 days ago
After yesterday's podcast, it was put to me by a Euro loving loon (but good man) on twitter that Greece defaulting on its debts and leaving the Euro would be bad news for me, as my wife owns a small property in Greece – the Greek Hovel. He is correct: anyone with Greek assets would take an immediate hit after Grexit. But here is why I support the move anyway.
The hit the Mrs will take is twofold. Firstly the Hovel will now be valued in drachmas which will be a weak currency compared even to the failing Euro. As such the Sterling value of the property will plunge. She has probably lost 10% already and she’d lose another 25% overnight.
Secondly when the Greek banks are nationalised they
2471 days ago
City forex dealer Alpari has today gone bust, fessing up to taking a £30 million hit as the Swiss depegged its franc from the Euro . the ripples of this mess will spread out to the Academy that is Upton Park in East London.
2486 days ago
Just a short BearCast Special on the situation in Greece with another election now looming in late January. What does it mean, who will win, will it mean the beginning of the end of the Euro and gow does it affect us? From a man who lives in Greece for a good part of the year and is an ardent Hellenophile if a profound Eurosceptic a few thoughts.
2722 days ago
As you know I have been in Greece for three weeks or more. And I come away in no doubt that the economy is picking up. Athens was almost buzzing whereas last year at the same time it was distinctly un-buzzing. Out in the boonies there has been less change.
In part that is because tourist numbers are up. Perhaps we non-Greeks have become immune to pictures of riots or the fascists of Golden Dawn on the March. There is certainly less fear that you will wake up one morning, switch on the TV in your hotel room and find that your Greek denominated Euros are now worthless drachmas. So that helps.
But there is also a partial domestic recovery. This time last year I walked down the main shopping streets near Syntagma Square
2728 days ago
It turns out that I have an hour or two to kill at Athens airport and so naturally decide to go to the Sofitel hotel, to sit outside rent an hour’s internet use to write another article about Quindell and have a coffee. I know that it will be expensive (11 Euro) but I will enjoy writing, smoking and having a coffee in the warm late afternoon air.
I write first and then go online to ensure that my whole hour is used wisely. Naturally Sofitel cuts me off after 45 minutes. But the articles are written and I ask for my bill and hand the chap a ten euro note and a 5 euro note.
In the west a waiter would return promptly with 4 Euro change (if he is sensible as one 2 euro coin and two 1 euro coins) and would probably expect a tip of a euro at least. But this is Greece and after more than five minutes the waiter has not returned.
I wander inside and he is sitting behind the bar polishing glasses not serving anyone. “My change” I ask and he hands over a plate which was sitting next to him with for Euros on it. No fucking tip for you Stavros.
The game he plays is simple. Some folks will have to rush to catch a plane, others will be to embarrassed to ask and so five times out of ten he will get to trouser 4 tax free Euros by behaving as he has done. Only once in a lifetime will he get a chippy Brit who: demands his change, gives no tip and then posts an article on the Internet saying that the Sofitel hotel Athens charges ludicrous prices and should be having a few words with Stavros the waiter about the way he does business.
Natch nothing will change, this is the side of Greece than leaves a bitter aftertaste as does my encounter with a bent taxi driver just minutes before.
I love Greece and will be back soon, but not everyone is so forgiving.
2833 days ago
With the European Central Bank (ECB) the comedy never stops. You and I know that a material number of European banks and financial institutions are bust. Even a total Euro loon like Michael Heseltine does not, I suspect, stash any of his millions with Greek, Spanish, or Italian banks these days. But the ECB wants us all to think differently and with its 2014 stress tests is going to prove it. Oh yes.
Let me first take you back to October 23rd of last year when the ECB tried to reassure those of us who have our doubts about some of the banks in the PIIGS nations by saying that it in 2014 it would use “stricter” rules than before when testing the balance sheets of the Eurozone banks. There was a firm pledge to insist that all banks could show a capital ratio of 8%. How very prudent Mr Draghi.
Now wind forward to this week and the ECB is now saying (according to Bloomberg) that the Capital Requirement when it runs the balance sheets through a recession stress test will be 6%, i.e. the same as in 2013. Stricter? Er... perhaps not after all. But it means that the ECB will be able to show that nearly every bank is solvent even in a recession scenario and so we can all sleep safely in our beds. Stop worrying little people everything is okay.
And it gets better.
2834 days ago
UKIP Councillor David Silvester has written to his local paper in Henley, arguing that the recent storms to hit Britain were God’s punishment on David Cameron for legalising gay marriage. Hmmmm.
UKIP says that this is not official party policy but that every party member has his or her right to express their beliefs. Well how jolly tolerant. For that I applaud UKIP but it could have gone one step further and added that on this matter Councillor Silvester has views which can only be described as completely bonkers bordering on offensive in a bigoted way.
UKIP claims to be a libertarian party. One would have thought that to describe Councillor Silvester’s views as libertarian would be pushing it a little. As libertarians we should support the rights of this bigoted old fruitcake to say whatever he wants. But we should also be allowed to and instinctively feel the need to express the view that such views are pretty repellent and clearly do mark Silvester out as a bigoted old fruitcake.
UKIP keeps on having these episodes where party activists are exposed as bigoted nutters. The UKIP line – as expressed to me by a national organiser – is that “we have one or two backwoodsman who will embarrass us now and again.”
The trouble is that it is not one or two but rather too many UKIP members who clear hold some rather unpleasant views about homosexuals, immigrants, Jews and other minorities.
You can bet your bottom Euro that Silvester will not be the only UKIP nutter to emerge in 2014. I suspect that will not deter many of us from holding our nose and voting UKIP in the Euros just because the established political parties are so awful and because we hate the EU. But when it comes to a REAL election will quite so many folks really want to send some of the loons who fly the flag for Fuhrer Farage to Westminster? Somehow I doubt it.
2848 days ago
I stumbled on this video today where Tory MEP Dan Hannan, who is easily the cleverest Tory going, puts three Euro-loons (headed by the almost comical Lib Dem MEP Sir Graham Watson) utterly to the sword. This is a breathtakingly good indictment of the Evil Empire.
3043 days ago
Is it time to sell everything? Probably not but it is quite possible that all asset classes will fall sharply in the coming weeks and months. – Well that is the theme of my financial video postcard this week which you can watch on Shareprophets.com here.
The political postcard focusses on the Euro, the EU, State sponsored theft and the end game. I sense that we Eurosceptics are about to be vindicated big time and soon.
3112 days ago
In Greece youth unemployment is c60%. Ditto Spain. In Eire 30%. But these figures dramatically understate, yes I repeat understate, what is going on and it is the Euro that is to blame. An entire generation across much of Europe is being pulverized, systematically smashed and it is the Euro worshipping leaders of the same countries who are to blame. This is almost a crime against humanity.
Why the understatement?
3119 days ago
There will no doubt be wild celebrations in parts of Islington, Bristol and bastions of the Guardian reading Middle Classes tonight. After a long illness. Margaret Thatcher has died of a stroke today. This death will divide the nation.
I am watching the BBC’s coverage and it ignores her achievements totally. It is spiteful and worthless reporting. The left will blame her for all sorts of matters and will delight in her demise. Already I see tweets saying “the witch is dead.” Expect a torrent of tasteless and unpleasant comments and myth perpetuation over the coming days. Thatcher had that effect – she polarized opinion.
That the left hated her with such a passion was down to the fact that she delivered so much of what the left claims as its own ground. And so the left claims to represent “women” but Thatcher showed that a woman could rise to the top based on ability and without positive discrimination. The left claims to look after the poor. But whereas Milliband, Brown, Blair etc are all solidly working class, it is the Tories who have delivered the leaders from truly humble origins (Heath, Major and above all Thatcher).
The left keeps its client state poor. Thatcher gave opportunity to that client state to get a better life: to earn more based on work and ,merit by breaking Union power and abolishing collective bargaining; to own their own home via council house sales, to save more by cutting taxes. That was revolutionary and Britain needed a revolution because in 1979 after the Winter of Discontent, Margaret Thatcher took control of a country on its knees: bankrupt and with no sense of national pride. Thatcher faced opposition from a left determined to keep the poor poor and from patrician Tories who did not wish to upset the status quo. Bravely she drove through change in society by ensuring that the State did less not more.
She was not always right. In her early career it was she who did away with large numbers of grammar schools. I suspect she regretted that. She did not stand up to Mugabe in his early years when the mad old kook could have been stopped. Again, I sense that she regretted that. But on the big calls Maggie was right and that is why the Left cannot abide her.
All those Guardian readers celebrating today were, if my age or older, proudly wearing CND badges and trooping off to Greenham during the cold war. Folks like Tony Blair, Paddy Pantsdown and Baroness Ashton may pretend otherwise but the lefties were wrong about how to win the Cold War while Maggie Thatcher and Ronald Regan were right. Many of those same lefties would have caved into the Argies in 1982. Thatcher stood firm, although some of those around her wobbled. For her it was a matter of principle. Thatcher was right about the ERM and the Euro. She was branded an out of touch nationalist for her views but her views were based on pure economics and she was once again right. She was right. The deluded lefties were wrong. History is on squarely her side.
In parts of the North they say that they cannot forgive her for closing the coal mines and other State subsidised rust belt industries. But the same folk lambast today’s politicians for bailing out the banks. Thatcher understood that there is no such thing as the Government’s cash. There is money paid over by the taxpayer and that cash cannot be wasted. Subsidising an industry which just cannot make a profit, whatever the industry is waste. It is taking money from those who are creating wealth and paying it to others who are not. Whether the recipients are bankers or miners Thatcher understood that such an action was wrong.
Today’s conservatives do not dare cut Government spending or taxes or foreign aid because they are afraid of being confrontational. They have forgotten what principle means. Thatcher never forgot principle and based every decision about it.
Margaret Thatcher was without doubt the bravest politician of the 20th century. She was without doubt the most principled politician of our lifetime. She was a truly amazing woman. And she was right about almost everything.
To celebrate any death shows that you have no heart. We should pity those who celebrate the passing of Margaret Thatcher. This woman shaped the lives of a generation. She saved the UK from the bankruptcy and humiliation of the 1970s. She engineered a renaissance of Britain which all of her successors have done their best to dissipate.
Our greatest leader, Margaret Thatcher 1925-2013 RIP
3126 days ago
Cyprus is a small island and it was easy to ignore or play down events at first but the situation is now out of control. We live in a new world order, the post Cyprus order and you need to wake up to the reality of that fast.
The Euro was never an economic project. It was a political one. And as such the “believers” brushed aside any economic objections and sought to ensure that everyone joined the club. Some countries were not fit to join (Portugal, Eire Spain, Italy, France, Greece, and Cyprus) but that mattered little. The leaders of those countries and the ECB agreed to lie in order to gain entry.
This was a concerted lie by the political elites across Europe – a class distinct from the folks they nominally represent. And so today as the Euro collapses the political elites of Poland, Rumania and elsewhere are still applying to sign up. Hey, I know the Titanic is going down but is there any chance of me jumping off a floating currency lifeboat and getting on board your fine vessel? Madness.
And one reason that it is madness is that we have no idea how Cyprus will play out. The initial plans for state bank robbery have been shelved and so if you have less than 100,000 Euros in your bank account that money is, pro tem, safe. But it is impossible to withdraw it in more than small tranches. If you have more you will lose some of it. Perhaps 40% or 60% or potentially all of it. The idea that bondholders should lose everything if a bank fails seems fair to me. The idea that depositors should lose cash is just obscene.
What will be the effects?
For one you will see a growing scandal of how the political elite looked after its own and its friends.
3130 days ago
BBC news has two problems. One is its inherent pro left, pro global warming, anti-Israel, pro Euro bias. The list goes on. But the BBC news teams are wrong on every issue that matters and do not mind showing their inner feelings. And two the BBC is grossly over-manned (should that be over-personned?). One news story can be covered by four different news crews (National TV, regional TV, local radio, national radio). Given that it is tax-payers cash that is being pissed away on this over-manning the BBC is (correctly) paring the odd job. Not enough but it is a start.
And so the unions are on strike for 12 hours. Have you noticed a drop in quality? Er..
Clearly 12 hours is not enough to make an impact. How about the news teams walk out for 15 years. Or better still forever.
3136 days ago
What was it that Chris Huhne, Tony Blair, Lord Howe, Paddy Pantsdown etc. said about how disastrous it would be if Britain did not join the Euro? No doubt the guilty men will apologise one day to those they labelled xenophobes for disagreeing with them. Perhaps they might care to explain to the good folk of Cyprus how they have benefitted from Euro membership?
In light of this the prize for the wittiest entry to this week’s caption contest is 1 Cypriot Euro or 2 Cupid shares – whichever is worth less. Actually I shall offer a real prize: an It’s Time to Leave T-shirt.
As ever you can buy your own it’s time to leave T-shirt as well as a range of other politically incorrect T-shirts, mugs, sweat-shorts and hoodies HERE
And brownie points to anyone who turns up at the UKInvestor Show on April 13th wearing such apparel.
So post your captions to the picture below in the comments section. The deadline for entries is next Friday morning
My entry is: “There is a surprisingly large turnout at the annual meeting of the Cyprus friends of Germany Society”
Last week I asked for captions to a picture of Ed Milliband. The standard of entries was so depressingly low (my own included) that there is no prize. And I’d rather not have another picture of this hopeless figure on this site so let’s just draw a line under the episode.
Now that he is friended me on Facebook, can Jon Pickles please return with a vengeance for this week’s contest.
3141 days ago
Cyprus has become the fifth Eurozone nation to get a bailout but this one is different. At the insistence of the Germans one condition of the bailout is that private citizen’s pay and they will do so via a tax of up to 10% levied on all bank deposits in the Mediterranean island. This is pure socialism in action – the idea that the legitimate savings made by an individual as a result of fully taxed income can just be seized by the State. It is a horrific precedent.
For having established that the State can effectively seize whatever it wants whenever it wants you rather accept that you have no private property or savings. You can work your socks off, pay taxes to support those who do not work, save prudently so that you will not be a burden on the State or your family in the future and then one day the State just seizes your money. Heck why stop at 10% of bank deposits? Why not seize land, houses, etc.? The precedent is now there and this is an EU precedent.
David Cameron wishes to remain part of an organisation which thinks that State sponsored theft of private wealth is acceptable. I do not and nor, I suspect, do most British people. If the Conservative party and for that matter the Lib Dems and Labour support State sponsored theft that is fine they should be honest about it and we can all vote UKIP. But will the established parties stand up to the political elite in the Evil Empire and say
3153 days ago
The answer to the 1998 financial crisis was to slash borrowing costs across the globe so that we all over-leverages and misallocated our capital. On that occasion it was junk dotcom investments and property. In 2008 another crises and the same solution. The fact is that the world has been misallocating capital for decades, led by Governments freed from prudence by the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971.
With each crisis that crops up, the solution is simply to print more money and to get folks to take on even more debt. You owe too much – heck borrow some more. And so capital is misallocated and bubbles grow ever bigger. But at some stage the party ends. It will. The current set up is simply unsustainable.
And so what will be the black swan event that causes the mother of all reality checks? If offer four runners and riders. Inevitably if one occurs it will trigger the others. And it will probably be a fifth black swan that no-one has thought much about that starts the party. But here goes.
1. The Chinese property bubble. I have written before on numerous occassions about just how mammoth this is and how it really can knock the Chinese (and thus the worlds) economy for six. The answer of the authorities to the slowdown in the PRC in 2012 was to pump more hot air into this bubble. It has to be my top black swan bet. Read this piece out yesterday on Zero Hedge if you doubt me.
My major work from September 2012 on China, the misallocation, fraud an inevitably of a crash is HERE
2. A market refusal to buy US T Bonds in an auction. The US Government is three years away from having a balance sheet like that of Greece just before the crisis. An economically illiterate President and, to show balance, a spineless Republican party in Congress just cannot get to grips with what is happening. The US today is like sick Britain at the end of WW1. But it will take the US far less time than we took to see its currency tank. At some stage folks will refuse to stump up cash for a debt that yields sod all and is clearly unrepayable and unsupportable.
3. Sovereign default across Europe accompanied by widespread Civil unrest. The only folks buying Spanish debt right now are the Spanish state pension funds. Oooh lucky Spanish state pensioners. But those funds are tapped out. Spain is bust and its economy is enjoying an EU austerity driven spanking session which Max Mosley could only dream of. It is not just Spain. Italy, Greece, Portugal are in the same mess. The Irish economy and society has been beaten to a pulp in the name of fiscal responsibility and yet could still collapse. France is heading the wrong way fast as is the UK. The collapse of the Euro as we know it has to be an odds on bet it is a matter of how it occurs.
4. The Arab spring moving to Saudi Arabia. A regime with no legitimacy is kleptocratic, autocratic and barbaric. It bribes the people with a fraction of the nation’s wealth and panders to radical Islam in a most unhealthy sort of way but it is unloved. One day it will fall. Revolution in the world’s largest oil producer could perhaps trigger unforeseen events elsewhere.
Hey, maybe we can all carry on spending beyond our means, leveraging up as individuals and as States for a good while yet. We have been kicking this can down the road for decades so maybe we can carry on for another few decades. Or maybe not. One day something will happen and we will find our noses against the wall at the end of the Cul-de-sac. That day may be sooner than we think.
For more thoughts from Tom Winnifrith follow him on twitter @tomwinnifrith
3166 days ago
In a sense this a daft question. Spain IS bust. We are just not admitting it yet. The Euro fanatics at the EU will not admit it until it has happened. But the day of truth is almost upon us. Spain will go bust and we will see a Sovereign default this year, taking the Euro down with it -or at least forcing a two speed Euro upon the Evil Empire.
Greece was small fry. Spain matters.
I suggest that you read this brief note from Phoenix Capital on the Zero Hedge website and think very carefully about what happens next. You can read that note HERE.
3169 days ago
Caitt Reilly is the job snob geology graduate who said that being forced to work at Poundland rather than just sit on the dole until she found a job that suited her was illegal. Needless to say some crackpot judge found in her favour. Incidentally that work experience did her some good as she now has a job at Morrison’s with one suspecting that the supermarket thought the stint at Poundland was a more impressive part of her CV than a degree in geology.
Caitt seems like a sour faced deluded lefty with a point to prove but she is utterly typical of British youth today in believing that she can sit on her fat arse collecting benefits paid for with taxes paid by those of us who do work (often in jobs we don’t relish) until something she likes comes along. That process can take years. And the more we churn graduates out with 2:1 degrees from useless Universities in pointless subjects the more you will get young people saying that a menial job is “beneath them.” The only way to address this is by root and branch reform of the welfare system.
I contrast this with the attitude of young Europeans mainly from Spain and Italy who are flocking to London. Back home there are simply no jobs – youth unemployment is 50% plus and rising thanks to the joys of being in the Euro. And so the more enterprising ones
3288 days ago
Jeepers. I think I have got both the sound and light right this week. A bonus helping of chocolate pizza for me. I had to get the hang of it eventually. The nine minute video postcard is wide ranging and I only mention Sefton Resources (SER) once and even then only en passant. How is that for restraint?
3294 days ago
Vince Cable somehow gained a reputation (out of Government) for predicting everything. He did that by (after the event) saying that he had predicted it beforehand. And for a while it worked and it was St Vince this and St Vince that. Until a bit of fact checking rather knocked the spots of that story. And since joining Government he has been an unmitigated disasters getting almost every big call wrong and appearing to be intent on nothing more than scheming his way to the top when Nick Clegg finally gets the order of the boot. So he is not exactly an idol of mine. But today the horrid little man sank to new depths.
Cable has always been a prize Euro loon
3307 days ago
The US election looms – on November 6th America will choose whether it wants another four years of Obama or a switch to the Republican Mitt Romney. As someone who supported the only fiscal conservative in the race (unsuccessful Republican presidential contender Ron Paul) I am dismayed by the choice and – like most Americans – really do not care about the result. Turnout will not be high. But Obama will win. It is not a matter of if, but of by how much. Just look at the betting on the poll. If Romney wins from here it will be the biggest upset in decades. I hate to write him off completely but I do.
3364 days ago
Throughout my travels in Greece during the past six weeks one thing has become apparent: the Greeks are completely deluded about their fate. They just simply do not get it. There is a large swathe of opinion that wishes to keep the Euro and believes that this can be done merely by slashing public sector jobs and Government waste. They do not think that austerity and the need to be competitive applies to them. Why they are so attached to the Euro which has brought them such misery baffles me. I think some associate it with the vast grants Greece used to get and think those days will come again (dream on).
Others see being part of the Euro club as a matter of national pride. So let me get this straight, Germany is telling your politicians how to run your country stripping you of independence, will soon send over “observers” to oversee the state, you have been bankrupted and humiliated – in all thoroughly buggered by Berlin. When this happened 1943-45 it was not a source of pride, what is different now?
3366 days ago
Greetings from Albania. I hope that I am getting the hang of this video recording technology. Sorry if I am a little dark in this shot but the only place quiet enough to record is my hotel room. I would like to given you, ahem, beach shots but there is too much shouting/background noise from the road and the mosque out there. A strange place.
On the Agenda
3374 days ago
I think I am getting the hang of this video technology. I am writing to you from the Connections Bar where there is a high speed wi-fi service and my latest video is whirring its way online. Last time it took 14 hours to get back to the UK. This time it looks set to complete in 150 minutes.
The play list here could have been created by me. Oasis, Nena, Dexy’s, all I need is some Undertones and I shall feel like I am back at Real Man Pizza. Anyhow, I hope that you enjoy the video
On the Agenda
A new share tip on the way on TomWinnifrith.com – maker sure you follow me on twitter (@tomwinnifrith) for the alert. It will go out during market hours.
3396 days ago
I am not sure which is more hapless and hopeless, the ECB or the Bank of England. It is a close run thing and today’s actions by the pair did nothing to clarify the situation.
The Bank of England announced £50 billion more Quantitative Easing. Ok, so QE has not worked to date so let’s try it again but only a small dose. If you think that QE is the answer to the UK’s ills (and for what it is worth I do not) then force the patient to drink gallons of medicine. The strategy seems to be a big gulp, then another big gulp and because that has not worked another sip or two. This latest QE will be regarded as either: another dollop of the wrong medicine (by sceptics like myself) or too little medicine to make a change and thus a counterproductive confidence destroyer (that is the “believer’s view). Either way this is another day in which the Old lady of Threadneedle Street achieves nothing much.