Personal and undiluted views
recession

4 days ago

Video: We are nowhere near a market bottom

Investment analyst, Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors, believes that in order to mitigate inflationary pressures, the Fed will push us into a recession. He explains how rising rates affect the economy, slowing the housing market. In addition, consumers are cutting back on expenses, and many will lose jobs as the economy contracts.

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54 days ago

In the coming recession no hope if no moat

I suspect that very few investors and surprisingly few PLC directors have any idea what a recession looks like. For starters most folks in both camps are rich but in a recession, it is the poor or lower middle classes who get whacked hardest. That is especially so when it is an inflationary recession as those lower down the order tend to have the least ability to “play catch up” by forcing through pay rises. And secondly you have to be of a certain age to remember a savage inflationary recession as an adult – the last one was ended with some fairly painful medicine by the blessed Lady Thatcher forty years ago.

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645 days ago

It is 1984 in Covid Oxford, truly the City of lost causes

Although term for Oxford University students does not start for a couple of weeks, daughter Olaf paid a visit yesterday to check out her accommodation for the second year and to meet up with pals who were already up. She reports back on a city which today would give George Orwell an idea for a sequel.

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796 days ago

The chart that demonstrates why the Coronavirus lockdown is such a cataclysmic GroupThink policy blunder

I explained some time ago how the political and media classes have been captured by the biggest case of GroupThink in history. There was a better way as I showed HERE. And now I bring you one chart which should cause even the most zealous advocate of lockdown to change his or her mind. Remember that the effect of the lockdown policy has been to cause the biggest economic slowdown since 1665 which will, in itself, cause untold misery and deaths.

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817 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: have you lost your animal spirit yet?

On the occassion of my father’s 82nd Birthday i ponder how miserrable life must be for him today. I urge you to hold your nose and go online to the Mail on Sunday just to read Peter Hitchens today. His column is golden prose, a joy to read. we agree on the coronavirus and the Government’s appalling response. Luke Johnson is in the same camp and I quote from his Sunday Times column reflecting on where my animal spirit sits as a consumer, an investor and an entrepreneur. Where, I ask,  do you sit dear listeners? I sense, in many cases they have been crushed and thus what lies ahead is a recession of the sort few of us have ever seen before.

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1015 days ago

Podcast: Precious Metals offer tremendous value for investors as worlds heads for recession

Analyst Tavi Costa sees the current business cycle as being almost over and is waiting on an overall downturn in equities. Two-year yields reveal that we are near the top of the cycle. In the US, manufacturing reports are trending lower, and non-farm payrolls have had a sizeable downward reversion. 90% of the yield curves in Canada have already inverted, and many other countries are similar.

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1028 days ago

Podcast: More upside still to come in gold and silver

Technical analyst JC Parets has been bullish for the last year on precious metals, and a part of his thesis was a call for a weaker dollar. However, the dollar index has been flat while gold and silver have shown a great deal of relative strength. If the dollar weakens, that would likely boost the uptrend in metals while if it strengthens that may weaken gold.

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1048 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: Time to fecking panic? If you hold shite yes! Time to write to Burford's Nomad, AIM Regulation etc

A bit better, only 1 coughing fit in 25 minutes. Thanks for all your best wishes. In today’s podcast I discuss the threat of recession and what it means for your portfolio, a grilling for ‘Arry of Kefi (KEFI) for you to take part in, all things Burford (BUR) with references to Avanti (AVN) and Quindell (QPP) and why I’m writing to the Nomad and AIM Regulation this weekend and Corero (CNS) which is a true shocker in every respect. We did warn y’all!

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1054 days ago

Tom Winnifrith Bearcast: should Carson Block of Muddy Waters go to jail for his Burford antics

I start with the threat of a UK recession, piffle tweeted by the lunatic David Lammy MP, the link to Brexit (minimal) and the stockmarket implications. Then onto Burford (BUR) where events move apace but the company seems to think bear raider Carson Block of Muddy Waters is in legal hot water. Instinctively I side with Block, however if today’s Mail is correct and he has closed much of his short while still issuing bearish tweets then is he any better than Chris Oil on Sefton or shamed broker SP Angel on Blue Jay (JAY). On that basis….

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1383 days ago

I cannot bear to watch the BBC any more, its bias & fake news on Brexit, Trump and Israel is just nauseating

For some reason we found ourselves watching both the 10 O’Clock News and Newsnight last night. In the end I had to switch off and vowed not to allow myself to suffer in this way again.  It started with the warnings from the convicted fraudster Christine Lagarde and the IMF on Brexit.

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2161 days ago

Video: Peter Schiff - US GDP is collapsing, this is dramatic & what it means

You know that libertarian gold bug Peter Schiff is a major hero of mine. In his latest video he shows how real GDP growth is negative, it is collapsing. And that has profound implications for all of us on both sides of the pond. This is cracking stuff from Schiff. Yes we really are in recession already!

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2168 days ago

14 new Investment ideas in July's UK Investor magazine - get your free copy now

From Gary Newman, Nigel Somerville, Steve Moore and myself there are 14 new investment ideas in the July UK Investor Magazine which is out now. I discuss the spirit of insurgehncy which caused Brexit and which is powering Donald Trump to the White House and its long term implications as well as the Global Recession which will hit the UK soon and it is nothing to do with Brexit! That and much more is free to read now just click on the link below.

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