Thursday April 18, 2019
Tom Winnifrith Postcard - an ode to my ancestral homelands in the Grim North
Photo Article from the Greek Hovel - good news and bad
Photo Article - walking around Stourhead with the Mrs and Joshua, the end of the Booker family memory lane

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Hillary Clinton's lead is tiny and shrinking - the polls are just wrong: here's why

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- Tom Winnifrith

A poll out pre the weekend debate had Hillary Clinton 11% ahead of Donald Trump as the "sex tapes" scandal was pushed as hard as possible by the Liberal mainstream media. Over here in the UK you are being told by the BBC, C4, ITV and the rest that Hillary is 11 points ahead and a slam dunk winner. That is just not true.

First up the same polling organisation polled post debate and the lead was down to just 9%. The liberal media may have called it for Clinton but no-one else did as I pointed out at the time HERE. The liberal media is now pushing the line that spineless Republicans like Paul Ryan are distancing themselves from Trump but well over 80% of GOP voters disagree with this line and by November 8 the GOP will be sort of united.

But 9% sounds a lot, except that the polling organisations have, again, been caught using a sample which has far more Dems than the national average and far fewer Independents (where Trump is ahead) and Republicans ( where he is miles ahead). Adjust back for that and the crooked one is well under 5% ahead and slipping.

I have noted before, my belief, untested I concede, that there will - as there was with Brexit - be a statistically significant number of "shy" Trumpers come election day and adjusting again for that you could easily see Hillary just a couple of points ahead and slipping.

The "half life" or rather "shelf life" of a major story is about ten days. After Hillary's 9/11 collapse and obvious lies about her health, her poll numbers tanked but most of the sharp day one fall had been erased within ten days. Hillary's lift from the first debate is now ironed out, Trumps sex tape fall will be history by next weekend and we will still have three and a half weeks to go.

Will there be other Trump sexist tapes? Probably. Will they have any more impact? No. Trump being a, repentant, sexist is well and truly "in the price". Will there be other Hillary email scandals? You bet.

Yesterday, not that the British media bothered reporting it, we saw an email from her campaign chairman saying How Hillary viewed ordinary Americans with contempt. Her liberal elite supporters on the Coasts probably also hold most Americans living in the slums or the flyover states with contempt but they do not say it as they try to promote their trashy movies and records. They know what a disaster it would be. Hillary is now exposed. And there will be far more where that came from.

The eight reasons why Trump will win stand. The Sex tapes hurt but not as much as the liberal media told you as they once again wrote Trump off completely. That was an error. It is still very much a contest which Trump can still win

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