Newsnight, the BBC's flagship programme for liberal lies, last night saw Evan Davis in the Studio chatting to Emily "crazy poll" Maitlis in the US about an election which Evan reckons Hillary Clinton is 75% certain to win. The opinion polls tell a massively different story which the UK taxpayer funded broadcaster just cannot handle or even report in a meaningful manner
Yesterday's three 4 way polls saw IDD giving Trump a 2 point lead (up from a tie at the weekend), The LA Times Tracker gave him a 6% lead (up from 2% on Sunday) while ABC/Wash Po had it as a tie in the 4 way race although little Evan chose to report it as +1% Hillary (referring to a 2 way poll). At the weekend ABC was +1% Hillary on the 4 way, +3% on the two way. Crazy as it seems some folks will vote for halfwit libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green lunatic so the 4 way poll is the one to watch. That should all tell you who has momentum and it is not the person that the FBI is again investigating.
The best poll for Hillary is thus the tied 4 way ABC/WashPo poll. But its methodology is again hilariously flawed. First it has 25% respondents being non whites which is the same percent of the 2012 voting population that was non-white. However, black turnout in that year was boosted by the Obama factor. Hillary Clinton may have a black heart, the Clinton Foundation may be a financial black hole but she is not black. Early voting stats suggest black turnout this year will be down by c10 percentage points. Hispanic turnout looks to be higher but, overall, the electorate will be more white in 2016 than it was in 2012, however many illegal immigrants the Dems register.
Since Dems win the non white vote heavily (they got 97% of the black vote last time and 73% of the hispanic vote) the sampling on racial lines appears a tad generous to the Dems. But on party lines it is off the wall. Those sampled are 37/29/29 Democrats/Republicans/Independents.
But as I explained yesterday those identifying by party lines using datas from 2014 and 2015 simply do not fall out that way. The Dem lead over Republicans is, these days, at best 4 points and at worst non existent. The largest grouping are Independents (who ABC/.Washpo concedes are breaking narrowly for Trump). As such this poll is clearly another totally inaccurate winner from ABC/WashPo.
Adjust the sample to be representative of how Americans actually view themselves and what was a tie starts to look like a Trump lead of up to 4 points. But, of course, it gets better. I have clearly demonstrated HERE that polls do not reflect "shy Trumpsters" so in fact the ABC/WashPo tie starts looking like a Trump lead of anything up to 8 points.
But the BBC still says that the crooked one is 75% certain to win. Whatever. I am so glad to be forced to buy a license for such high quality and impartial analysis.