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The North Carolina poll that tells you Trump is winning massively - this is HUGE for The Donald

Tom Winnifrith
Thursday 3 November 2016

North Carolina was an uber marginal win for the Republicans in 2012 and for the Dems in 2008. It is a must win state for Trump and last night the Clinton propagandists at BBC Newsnight were still calling it for Clinton. This is despite a new poll out which showed Trump smashing it out of the park. This is massive at a State but also a National level.

The SurveyUSA poll of 659 voters who had voted or said they were likely to vote was phone based and started on the evening that the FBI bombshell for Crooked Hillary broke. Respondents identified themselves as 44/33/20 registered Dems, Reps/Ind so if anything that over-samples Dems and under-samples Republicans and Independents ( who are leaning to Trump markedly). And the result:

Trump 51%, Crooked Hillary 44%, Gary Johnson 3% and Undecided 3%. That is a stonking 7 point lead which is up from a 2 point Clinton lead the previous time this organisation polled, three weeks ago.

Newsnight's Emily "crazy poll" Maitlis was last night claiming that the GOP was cheating by trying to reduce black voting in the State - talk about reading a press release from a desperate DNC without checking. Oddly the BBC has not reported on Dem officials in the state registering fake voters, the firebombing of Trump's state headquarters or the FBI raiding Dem vote fraudsters in Pennsylvania earlier in the week and recent Dem problems in Florida. Nope. For the liberal media only Republicans cheat.

What Maitlis overlooks is that early turnout among blacks is down across the board compared to 2012. North Carolina is not bucking the trend due to GOP cheating it is on trend. Get used to it Emily: fewer blacks will vote at all in 2016 than in 2012 and whereas blacks voted 97% Democrat last time this time they will vote between 80-90% Dem. That is very bad news indeed for the crooked one. The man you smeared as "racist" will be the most popular Republican candidate among blacks since the 1980s at worst or since 1960 at best. I cannot wait for Maitlis, Matt Frei, "Beltway" Kylie Morris et al to have to explain that away on the morning of November 9.

So The Donald is 7% ahead in North Carolina. Adjusting for shy Trumpsters, that lead heads towards, or into, double digits which makes it look as if the state is in the bag for the GOP. If Trump has that sort of lead in this most uber-marginal of states it really does not look good for Hillary nationwide.

There is also a Colorado poll out Thursday morning showing it as a tie. That is another battleground state that the BBC was happy to mark down as a blue (Dem). But clearly Trump has the momentum there and, if one adjusts for shy Trumpsters, if voting was today you'd have to call that one for the GOP as well.

Meanwhile, even the BBC admits that Trump seems to be winning Florida, a massive battleground state and we had news yesterday that the Democrat Senate candidate there (up against little Marco Rubio) is now being investigated by the FBI for hiding covert massive donations from a dodgy Saudi. Rubio was already a banker win but the Democrats in the Sunshine State must now be falling apart and that will filter up ticket as well as down. The sleaze party will lose all the key battles in Florida so that should be another safe win for Trump as he cements a "solid South."

The battle now is for Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia and Pennsylvania which still seem to be showing marginal Clinton leads but post FBI data is scant and the sort of leads showing could easily be reversed by the shy Trumpster factor.

Five days to go and for we deplorables there is still everything to play for but it is looking better and better.

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About Tom Winnifrith
Tom Winnifrith is the editor of When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
[email protected]
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