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Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton - the Polls are still Rigged for the Dems ...but

Tom Winnifrith
Tuesday 8 November 2016

As we go into election day some polls show Trump in the lead but most show Crooked Hillary winning. Even allowing for the admitted margins of error some pollsters have got it badly wrong. But the average poll shows Hillary 3.3% ahead and I am sure that FBI-gate will have given her a small bump since those polls were in the field. But that does not mean she wins for two reasons of which rigged polls remains a real factor. Lets look at the latest ABC/WashPo poll showing her +4 in a four way. It is just wrong. Demonstrably wrong.

The sampling in that poll is 38-31-27 Dem-Rep-Ind. There is no way on earth that this is representitive of how folks are registered o0r normally lean as I discussed HERE. Thus a responsible pollster would adjust for that and this brings the poll back to near as damn it a tie. I am afraid that oversampling of Dems and undersampling of good honest, gun owning, hard working, God fearing folks from the GOP is endemic in these polls.

The Reuters poll (+3 Clinton) made great play of how it adjusted for age, ethnicity etc but did not adjust for how folks identified as voters and its sample was 43% Dem, 34% GOP 19% Independent which is even more loaded to Hillary. As an online poll that does not surprise me. Hipsters in Brooklyn are a slam dunk to be online, folks with proper jobs - or whose jobs have been exported to Mexico - who live in the flyover states are less likely to be online.

Adjust the Reuters poll for a more balanced identification and it might put Trump in the lead.

Then there is the shy Trumpster factor which - as I explained here - could be worth up to 4 percentage points for the Donald. having said all of that there must have been a post FBI bump for Hillary since Sunday. Many of us regard the latest news from the FBI as yet more evidence of an establishment cover-up and thus a reason to back Donald. We also look at the news out of the Clinton Foundation of how a "charity" paid for the wedding of the brat Chelsea with disgust. But we were always deplorables.

Others, on the liberal left, have decided that the FBI are, after all, good chaps and say that Hillary is vindicated. But they always denied there was an issue.

What we don't know is how the small number of floating voters or Dems holding their nose to vote Hillary will be swayed. It is an unknown. It appears that black turnout is down with Trump outscoring Romney in 2012 among blacks which is bad for Hillary. But hispanic turnout is sharply up and Trump will do worse among hispanics than Romney although that will not be evenly spread - he will poll far better among Cubans (Florida) than among Mexicans ( Nevada). At this stage we are not sure how differential turnout will play.

So there are vast numbers of unknowns. By 12.30 tonight GMT we should know how Florida, Ohio and North Carolina has voted. If that is a Trump hat-trick I stay up as it looks very interesting indeed and promising for the GOP. If Hillary wins even one of that early trio I would call it a day and head to bed with a heavy heart. The establishment would have won and America will have lost.

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About Tom Winnifrith
Tom Winnifrith is the editor of When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
[email protected]
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