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The Liberal media says #Trump2020 is a busted flush - have they read the latest polls? Put your money on POTUS

Tom Winnifrith
Saturday 24 February 2018

The narrative of folks like the BBC, The Guardian, CNN in fact the whole of the liberal media elite is that Donald Trump should not have defeated crooked Hillary in 2016. Without admitting that their gal was useless they agree that next time around the Donald just cannot win, in fact many argue that he will not stand at all. But have they actually looked at the polls in detail? If they have, they ignore them as they churn out yet more fake news.

One "impartial commentator" interviewed fawningly by the BBC the other day said that there was a 1/3 chance that Trump would be impeached and so not stand, a 1/3 chance that he'd be so sure of losing that he would not stand and a 1/3 chance of him standing and being beaten soundly. In other words the chances of him winning were zero. But then again the BBC has form in getting these matters horribly wrong, in deliberately mis-reading polls.

On the impeachment level, after almost a year of Mueller nonsense a few folks associated with Trump have been charged with either financial crime pre-dating and unrelated to the campaign or of lying to the FBI. 13 Russians have been charged with interfering with the election, staring in 2014, a year before Trump decided to run. Facebook says most of the Russian money spent with it was spent after the General Election. No link has been shown between the 13 and the Trump campaign. In other words not a shred of evidence of Trump Russia collusion has emerged which is not surprising as there was none.

On the other hand the FBI, crooked Hillary and the Obama administration have been shown to have real links to Russia via the dirty dossier funded by Clinton, via Uranium One and have been shown lying to judges and destroying evidence of Clinton wrongdoing. Russiagate is a Democrat problem and Trump will just not get impeached. But can he win the vote?

As I noted repeatedly during the General Election there is always a "shy Trump" factor in all polls - something the liberal media ignores since it is their non stop vilification of Trump and his supporters that has created it. I am happy to admit to being a "deplorable" as Hillary Clinton branded 50% of her fellow Americans. And so are many others. But given the non stop attacks we Trumpsters have suffered in the press it is no surprise that some folks will pull the right lever on election day but don't dare admit it to anyone.

At this stage of his first Administration Obama was on 45% approving of his (dismal) performance. The most recent poll (Rasmussen) had Trump on an amazing 50% approving 49% not and he has been on the up in all recent polls. That Rasmussen poll is meant to have a margin of error of 2.5%. Now I concede that other polls (claiming a similar margin of error) taken a few days earlier have him on as low as 37% approval. One thing we can say for sure is that at least one of those polls is wildly wrong!

The overall tracking poll currently has Trump at c43% ( and rising). Throw in the shy Trumpsters and he is basically where Obama was at this point. But Trump's ratings are improving rapidly.

But there is another factor at play here. Trump lost the popular vote but stormed the electoral college. That is because millions of useless Dem votes piled up in safe and big Dem states like New York, California and Illinois. Whereas in smaller flyover states Trump won by a narrower margin. His landslides in the South and Mid West were also largely in smaller states - the only big red states being Texas and Florida.

There was a state by state poll on approval ratings undertaken some weeks ago when the overall picture was that Trump was nationally in the mid to high thirties. What was clear from that was that in places such as New York, New England and California, i.e safe Dem states, POTUS was even less liked than he was back in November 2016. There has been a large swing against him. But this makes no difference at all to the electoral college.

In the States that were safe Trump in 2016 he was still safe and in the swing states, back then he was in the 40s already. In other words, at what should be a low point for Trump (mid term year) he is still very much in contention in all the states that matter. Throw in the recent revival and the shy Trump factor and he could well be ahead or only marginally behind in all the swing states. At this point in the cycle that is a remarkably good showing.

The great unknown is how the economy fares between now and 2020. If it is stimulated by the Trump tax cuts and jobs continue to be created in those swing rust belt states the #Trump2020 victory party is s slam dunk cert. If it falters then the race is more of a toss up with a lot depending on which of the umpteen dwarfs the Dems are considering is selected as their candidate. Natch I am praying that Chelsea Clinton decides that it is her familial turn to steal the Dem nomination but the reality is that there is no strong and obvious choice bar Bernie Sanders who is a) very old, b) tainted by his wife's financial scandals and c) a total fruitcake.

When push comes to shove will folks in Ohio or Michigan want to back a man who thinks we should #takeaknee in solidarity with transgender campaigners in a programme funded by tax hikes? Okay I parody his position slightly, but on the big social and economic issues Trump stands with folks in Ohio, Bernie kneels with snowflakes in Brooklyn. It is the story I have commented on many times before, one of the two Americas.

The Bottom line is that any media outlet telling you that Trump has a 0% chance of residing in the White House after 2020 is just ignoring the facts to pedal fake news.

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About Tom Winnifrith
Tom Winnifrith is the editor of When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
[email protected]
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