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Ignore the lying liberal media: What the polls actually said, even pre FBI, is that Trump can win!

Tom Winnifrith
Sunday 30 October 2016

Before the FBI did the decent thing and, in some cases, afterwards the liberal media was telling us that the General Election was a slam dunk win for Hillary. But the polls told you that this was not the case. Even without the FBI reopening its investigation into Crooked Hillary which is really bad news for her, as I explain HERE, Trump was looking good for the White House. Here's why.

Pollsters such as CBS and NBC had been publishing rigged polls which, as I demonstrated HERE, massively oversampled Dems but which the liberal media lapped up. They told us that Clinton was +12. The polls were so stupid that they have been recalibrated in recent days and now CBS, for instance, shows Clinton at +2, or did in a survey conducted just before the FBI bombshell.

In today's Sunday Telegraph Simon Heffer refers to a trailing poll of polls showing Clinton's lead narrowing to +5 but that poll of polls still includes some polls with heavily rigged data. So that +5 almost certainly overstates the Clinton nominal lead by at least 2.5 points if not more..

However we then must factor in shy Trumpsters. In the Brexit vote we "outers" were branded by the liberal media establishment as racist, ignorant, economic underachievers and in the last few days were told we had the blood of poor Jo Cox MP on our hands. Not surprisingly some outers declined to admit to pollsters where they stood.

In the Trump/Clinton contest some of us do not mind being tagged as deplorables and wear the badge with pride. But Matt Frei is far from alone in the media in branding ALL Trump voters as racist and the liberal media also claims that any man voting for Trump is a misogynist and any woman backing the Donald is just plain stupid.

So there will be shy Trumpsters not showing up in the polls and I argued, HERE, last week that hard poll data suggests that "shy Trumpsters are worth 3-4 points for the GOP. So a 2-3 point headline lead for Crooked Hillary as at last Thursday (the most recent date of polls in the field) could well be a Trump lead of anything up to 2 points.

And now we have the FBI bombshell. However the crooked one spins this, it is bad news for her. There is the fact that her closest aide appears to have been married to a serial paedo. That is just distasteful: sex scandals and the Clintons do seem to walk hand in hand. And they leave a nasty taste in the mouth, not just for Monica Lewinsky but for many in a God fearing country who just don't live their lives that way.

But worse still is the very real possibility that Clinton may be charged with an imprisonable offence. In the words of Watergate hero Carl Bernstein, no friend of we deplorables:

"We don't know what this means yet except that it's a real bombshell. And it is unthinkable that the Director of the FBI would take this action lightly, that he would put this letter forth to the Congress of the United States saying there is more information out there about classified e-mails and call it to the attention of congress unless it was something requiring serious investigation."

And that is how - outside the Beltway, Hollywood and the offices of the liberal media establishment - America views this. It will not cause massive shifts in voting but there will be some Bernie Sanders type Dems who were planning to vote Dem despite loathing Hillary, but who will now abstain. There will be a few Republicans who were planning on abstaining but, now reminded of just how evil are the Clintons, will hold their noses and vote Trump. And there are the 4 or 5% who were genuinely undecided as at last week. They will split three ways (Trump, Clinton and other/non vote) but there is no way on earth now that this group will not contain more folks pulling the lever for the Donald than for the Crooked One. Each of those three shifts may be worth half a point or less to Trump but collectively they add up and if he was tied or marginally in the lead before...

I await the first polls conducted post the bombshell but they must surely show a swing to the GOP. Given where the polls were pre the bombshell, and adjusting for shy Trumpsters, it looks better and better for we deplorables.

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About Tom Winnifrith
Tom Winnifrith is the editor of When he is not harvesting olives in Greece, he is (planning to) raise goats in Wales.
[email protected]
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